123 resultados para SEASONAL VARIABILITY


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Background Seasonal changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may be due to exposure to seasonal environmental variables like temperature and acute infections or seasonal behavioural patterns in physical activity and diet. Investigating the seasonal pattern of risk factors should help determine the causes of the seasonal pattern in CVD. Few studies have investigated the seasonal variation in risk factors using repeated measurements from the same individual, which is important as individual and population seasonal patterns may differ. Methods The authors investigated the seasonal pattern in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, body weight, total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, C reactive protein and fibrinogen. Measurements came from 38 037 participants in the population-based cohort, the Tromsø Study, examined up to eight times from 1979 to 2008. Individual and population seasonal patterns were estimated using a cosinor in a mixed model. Results All risk factors had a highly statistically significant seasonal pattern with a peak time in winter, except for triglycerides (peak in autumn), C reactive protein and fibrinogen (peak in spring). The sizes of the seasonal variations were clinically modest. Conclusions Although the authors found highly statistically significant individual seasonal patterns for all risk factors, the sizes of the changes were modest, probably because this subarctic population is well adapted to a harsh climate. Better protection against seasonal risk factors like cold weather could help reduce the winter excess in CVD observed in milder climates.

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Many common diseases, such as the flu and cardiovascular disease, increase markedly in winter and dip in summer. These seasonal patterns have been part of life for millennia and were first noted in ancient Greece by both Hippocrates and Herodotus. Recent interest has focused on climate change, and the concern that seasons will become more extreme with harsher winter and summer weather. We describe a set of R functions designed to model seasonal patterns in disease. We illustrate some simple descriptive and graphical methods, a more complex method that is able to model non-stationary patterns, and the case–crossover for controlling for seasonal confounding.

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We investigated performance and heart rate (HR) variability (HRV) over consecutive days of cycling with post-exercise cold water immersion (CWI) or passive recovery (PAS). In a crossover design, 11 cyclists completed two separate 3-day training blocks (120 min cycling per day, 66 maximal sprints, 9 min time trialling [TT]), followed by 2 days of recovery-based training. The cyclists recovered from each training session by standing in cold water (10 °C) or at room temperature (27 °C) for 5 min. Mean power for sprints, total TT work and HR were assessed during each session. Resting vagal-HRV (natural logarithm of square-root of mean squared differences of successive R-R intervals; ln rMSSD) was assessed after exercise, after the recovery intervention, during sleep and upon waking. CWI allowed better maintenance of mean sprint power (between-trial difference [90 % confidence limits] +12.4 % [5.9; 18.9]), cadence (+2.0 % [0.6; 3.5]), and mean HR during exercise (+1.6 % [0.0; 3.2]) compared with PAS. ln rMSSD immediately following CWI was higher (+144 % [92; 211]) compared with PAS. There was no difference between the trials in TT performance (-0.2 % [-3.5; 3.0]) or waking ln rMSSD (-1.2 % [-5.9; 3.4]). CWI helps to maintain sprint performance during consecutive days of training, whereas its effects on vagal-HRV vary over time and depend on prior exercise intensity.

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We investigated the effect of hydrotherapy on time-trial performance and cardiac parasympathetic reactivation during recovery from intense training. On three occasions, 18 well-trained cyclists completed 60 min high-intensity cycling, followed 20 min later by one of three 10-min recovery interventions: passive rest (PAS), cold water immersion (CWI), or contrast water immersion (CWT). The cyclists then rested quietly for 160 min with R-R intervals and perceptions of recovery recorded every 30 min. Cardiac parasympathetic activity was evaluated using the natural logarithm of the square root of mean squared differences of successive R-R intervals (ln rMSSD). Finally, the cyclists completed a work-based cycling time trial. Effects were examined using magnitude-based inferences. Differences in time-trial performance between the three trials were trivial. Compared with PAS, general fatigue was very likely lower for CWI (difference [90% confidence limits; -12% (-18; -5)]) and CWT [-11% (-19; -2)]. Leg soreness was almost certainly lower following CWI [-22% (-30; -14)] and CWT [-27% (-37; -15)]. The change in mean ln rMSSD following the recovery interventions (ln rMSSD(Post-interv)) was almost certainly higher following CWI [16.0% (10.4; 23.2)] and very likely higher following CWT [12.5% (5.5; 20.0)] compared with PAS, and possibly higher following CWI [3.7% (-0.9; 8.4)] compared with CWT. The correlations between performance, ln rMSSD(Post-interv) and perceptions of recovery were unclear. A moderate correlation was observed between ln rMSSD(Post-interv) and leg soreness [r = -0.50 (-0.66; -0.29)]. Although the effects of CWI and CWT on performance were trivial, the beneficial effects on perceptions of recovery support the use of these recovery strategies.

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Does exercise promote weight loss? One of the key problems with studies assessing the efficacy of exercise as a method of weight management and obesityis that mean data are presented and the individual variability in response is overlooked. Recent data have highlighted the need to demonstrate and characterise the individual variability in response to exercise. Do people who exercise compensate for the increase in energy expenditure via compensatory increases in hunger and food intake? The authors address the physiological, psychological and behavioural factors potentially involved in the relationship between exercise and appetite, and identify the research questions that remain unanswered. A negative consequence of the phenomena of individual variability and compensatory responses has been the focus on those who lose little weight in response to exercise; this has been used unreasonably as evidence to suggest that exercise is a futile method of controlling weight and managing obesity. Most of the evidence suggests that exercise is useful for improving body composition and health. For example, when exercise-induced mean weight loss is <1.0 kg, significant improvements in aerobic capacity (+6.3 ml/kg/min), systolic (−6.00 mm Hg) and diastolic (−3.9 mm Hg) blood pressure, waist circumference (−3.7 cm) and positive mood still occur. However, people will vary in their responses to exercise; understanding and characterising this variability will help tailor weight loss strategies to suit individuals.

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A pilot study has produced 31 groundwater samples from a coal seam gas (CSG) exploration well located in Maramarua, New Zealand. This paper describes sources of CSG water chemistry variations, and makes sampling and analytical recommendations to minimize these variations. The hydrochemical character of these samples is studied using factor analysis, geochemical modelling, and a sparging experiment. Factor analysis unveils carbon dioxide (CO2) degassing as the principal cause of sample variation (about 33%). Geochemical modelling corroborates these results and identifies minor precipitation of carbonate minerals with degassing. The sparging experiment confirms the effect of CO2 degassing by showing a steady rise in pH while maintaining constant alkalinity. Factor analysis correlates variations in the major ion composition (about 17%) to changes in the pumping regime and to aquifer chemistry variations due to cation exchange reactions with argillaceous minerals. An effective CSG water sampling program can be put into practice by measuring pH at the well head and alkalinity at the laboratory; these data can later be used to calculate the carbonate speciation at the time the sample was collected. In addition, TDS variations can be reduced considerably if a correct drying temperature of 180°C is consistently implemented.

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Coal Seam Gas (CSG) production is achieved by extracting groundwater to depressurize coal seam aquifers in order to promote methane gas desorption from coal micropores. CSG waters are characteristically alkaline, have a neutral pH (~7), are of the Na-HCO3-Cl type, and exhibit brackish salinity. In 2004, a CSG exploration company carried out a gas flow test in an exploration well located in Maramarua (Waikato Region, New Zealand). This resulted in 33 water samples exhibiting noteworthy chemical variations induced by pumping. This research identifies the main causes of hydrochemical variations in CSG water, makes recommendations to manage this effect, and discusses potential environmental implications. Hydrochemical variations were studied using Factor Analysis and this was supported with hydrochemical modelling and a laboratory experiment. This reveals carbon dioxide (CO2) degassing as the principal source of hydrochemical variability (about 33%). Factor Analysis also shows that major ion variations could also reflect changes in hydrochemical composition induced by different pumping regimes. Subsequent chloride, calcium, and TDS variations could be a consequence of analytical errors potentially committed during laboratory determinations. CSG water chemical variations due to degassing during pumping can be minimized with good completion and production techniques; variations due to sample degassing can be controlled by taking precautions during sampling, transit, storage and analysis. In addition, the degassing effect observed in CSG waters can lead to an underestimation of their potential environmental effect. Calcium precipitation due to exposure to normal atmospheric pressure results in a 23% increase in SAR values from Maramarua CSG water samples.

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A characteristic of Parkinson's disease (PD) is the development of tremor within the 4–6 Hz range. One method used to better understand pathological tremor is to compare the responses to tremor-type actions generated intentionally in healthy adults. This study was designed to investigate the similarities and differences between voluntarily generated 4–6 Hz tremor and PD tremor in regards to their amplitude, frequency and coupling characteristics. Tremor responses for 8 PD individuals (on- and off-medication) and 12 healthy adults were assessed under postural and resting conditions. Results showed that the voluntary and PD tremor were essentially identical with regards to the amplitude and peak frequency. However, differences between the groups were found for the variability (SD of peak frequency, proportional power) and regularity (Approximate Entropy, ApEn) of the tremor signal. Additionally, coherence analysis revealed strong inter-limb coupling during voluntary conditions while no bilateral coupling was seen for the PD persons. Overall, healthy participants were able to produce a 5 Hz tremulous motion indistinguishable to that of PD patients in terms of peak frequency and amplitude. However, differences in the structure of variability and level of inter-limb coupling were found for the tremor responses of the PD and healthy adults. These differences were preserved irrespective of the medication state of the PD persons. The results illustrate the importance of assessing the pattern of signal structure/variability to discriminate between different tremor forms, especially where no differences emerge in standard measures of mean amplitude as traditionally defined.

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A routine activity for a sports dietitian is to estimate energy and nutrient intake from an athlete's self-reported food intake. Decisions made by the dietitian when coding a food record are a source of variability in the data. The aim of the present study was to determine the variability in estimation of the daily energy and key nutrient intakes of elite athletes, when experienced coders analyzed the same food record using the same database and software package. Seven-day food records from a dietary survey of athletes in the 1996 Australian Olympic team were randomly selected to provide 13 sets of records, each set representing the self-reported food intake of an endurance, team, weight restricted, and sprint/power athlete. Each set was coded by 3-5 members of Sports Dietitians Australia, making a total of 52 athletes, 53 dietitians, and 1456 athlete-days of data. We estimated within- and between- athlete and dietitian variances for each dietary nutrient using mixed modeling, and we combined the variances to express variability as a coefficient of variation (typical variation as a percent of the mean). Variability in the mean of 7-day estimates of a nutrient was 2- to 3-fold less than that of a single day. The variability contributed by the coder was less than the true athlete variability for a 1-day record but was of similar magnitude for a 7-day record. The most variable nutrients (e.g., vitamin C, vitamin A, cholesterol) had approximately 3-fold more variability than least variable nutrients (e.g., energy, carbohydrate, magnesium). These athlete and coder variabilities need to be taken into account in dietary assessment of athletes for counseling and research.

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Objectives The relationship between performance variability and accuracy in cricket fast bowlers of different skill levels under three different task conditions was investigated. Bowlers of different skill levels were examined to observe if they could adapt movement patterns to maintain performance accuracy on a bowling skills test. Design 8 national, 12 emerging and 12 junior pace bowlers completed an adapted version of the Cricket Australia bowling skills test, in which they performed 30 trials involving short (n = 10), good (n = 10), and full (n = 10) length deliveries. Methods Bowling accuracy was recorded by digitising ball position relative to the centre of a target. Performance measures were mean radial error (accuracy), variable error (consistency), centroid error (bias), bowling score and ball speed. Radial error changes across the duration of the skills test were used to record accuracy adjustment in subsequent deliveries. Results Elite fast bowlers performed better in speed, accuracy, and test scores than developing athletes. Bowlers who were less variable were also more accurate across all delivery lengths. National and emerging bowlers were able to adapt subsequent performance trials within the same bowling session for short length deliveries. Conclusions Accuracy and adaptive variability were key components of elite performance in fast bowling which improved with skill level. In this study, only national elite bowlers showed requisite levels of adaptive variability to bowl a range of lengths to different pitch locations.

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The effects of ethanol fumigation on the inter-cycle variability of key in-cylinder pressure parameters in a modern common rail diesel engine have been investigated. Specifically, maximum rate of pressure rise, peak pressure, peak pressure timing and ignition delay were investigated. A new methodology for investigating the start of combustion was also proposed and demonstrated—which is particularly useful with noisy in-cylinder pressure data as it can have a significant effect on the calculation of an accurate net rate of heat release indicator diagram. Inter-cycle variability has been traditionally investigated using the coefficient of variation. However, deeper insight into engine operation is given by presenting the results as kernel density estimates; hence, allowing investigation of otherwise unnoticed phenomena, including: multi-modal and skewed behaviour. This study has found that operation of a common rail diesel engine with high ethanol substitutions (>20% at full load, >30% at three quarter load) results in a significant reduction in ignition delay. Further, this study also concluded that if the engine is operated with absolute air to fuel ratios (mole basis) less than 80, the inter-cycle variability is substantially increased compared to normal operation.

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As the use of fiducial markers (FMs) for the localisation of the prostate during external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) has become part of routine practice, radiation therapists (RTs) have become increasingly responsible for online image interpretation. The aim of this investigation was to quantify the limits of agreement (LoA) between RTs when localising to FMs with orthogonal kilovoltage (kV) imaging. Methods Six patients receiving prostate EBRT utilising FMs were included in this study. Treatment localisation was performed using kV imaging prior to each fraction. Online stereoscopic assessment of FMs, performed by the treating RTs, was compared with the offline assessment by three RTs. Observer agreement was determined by pairwise Bland-Altman analysis. Results Stereoscopic analysis of 225 image pairs was performed online at the time of treatment, and offline by three RT observers. Eighteen pairwise Bland-Altman analyses were completed to assess the level of agreement between observers. Localisation by RTs was found to be within clinically acceptable 95% LoAs. Conclusions Small differences between RTs, in both the online and offline setting, were found to be within clinically acceptable limits. RTs were able to make consistent and reliable judgements when matching FMs on planar kV imaging.

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Background: Ureaplasmas are the most frequently isolated microorganisms from the amniotic fluid (AF) of pregnant women and can cause chronic infections that are difficult to eradicate with standard macrolide treatment. We tested the effects of erythromycin treatment on phenotypic and genotypic markers of ureaplasmal antimicrobial resistance in sheep. Method: At 50 days of gestation (d, term=145d) 12 pregnant ewes received intra-amniotic injections of U. parvum serovar 3 (erythromycin-sensitive, 2x104 colony-forming-units). At 100d ewes received: erythromycin treatment (500 mg, q3h for 4 days, IM, n=6) or no treatment (n=6). Fetuses were delivered surgically (125d) and AF and chorioamnion were collected for: culture, minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) and minimum biofilm inhibitory concentration (MBIC) testing; 23S rRNA sequencing; and detection of macrolide-lincosamide-streptogramin resistance (MLSr) genes. Results: MICs of erythromycin, azithromycin and roxithromycin against AF isolates were low (range = 0.06 mg/L to 1.0 mg/L); however, chorioamnion isolates demonstrated increased resistance to roxithromycin (0.13 – 5.33 mg/L). 62.5% of chorioamnion ureaplasmas formed biofilms in vitro and mutations (125 nucleotides, 29.6%) were found in the 23S rRNA gene (domain V) of chorioamnion (but not AF) ureaplasmas. MLSr genes (ermB, msrC and msrD) were detected in 100% of chorioamnion isolates and only msrD was detected in AF isolates (40%). Conclusions: 23S rRNA mutations and MLSr genes occurred independently of erythromycin treatment, suggesting that the anatomical site of infection and microenvironment may exert selective pressures on ureaplasmas that cause genetic changes and alter antimicrobial sensitivity profiles. These results have serious implications for treatment of in utero infections.

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As the world’s population is growing, so is the demand for agricultural products. However, natural nitrogen (N) fixation and phosphorus (P) availability cannot sustain the rising agricultural production, thus, the application of N and P fertilisers as additional nutrient sources is common. It is those anthropogenic activities that can contribute high amounts of organic and inorganic nutrients to both surface and groundwaters resulting in degradation of water quality and a possible reduction of aquatic life. In addition, runoff and sewage from urban and residential areas can contain high amounts of inorganic and organic nutrients which may also affect water quality. For example, blooms of the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula along the coastline of southeast Queensland are an indicator of at least short term decreases of water quality. Although Australian catchments, including those with intensive forms of land use, show in general a low export of nutrients compared to North American and European catchments, certain land use practices may still have a detrimental effect on the coastal environment. Numerous studies are reported on nutrient cycling and associated processes on a catchment scale in the Northern Hemisphere. Comparable studies in Australia, in particular in subtropical regions are, however, limited and there is a paucity in the data, in particular for inorganic and organic forms of nitrogen and phosphorus; these nutrients are important limiting factors in surface waters to promote algal blooms. Therefore, the monitoring of N and P and understanding the sources and pathways of these nutrients within a catchment is important in coastal zone management. Although Australia is the driest continent, in subtropical regions such as southeast Queensland, rainfall patterns have a significant effect on runoff and thus the nutrient cycle at a catchment scale. Increasingly, these rainfall patterns are becoming variable. The monitoring of these climatic conditions and the hydrological response of agricultural catchments is therefore also important to reduce the anthropogenic effects on surface and groundwater quality. This study consists of an integrated hydrological–hydrochemical approach that assesses N and P in an environment with multiple land uses. The main aim is to determine the nutrient cycle within a representative coastal catchment in southeast Queensland, the Elimbah Creek catchment. In particular, the investigation confirms the influence associated with forestry and agriculture on N and P forms, sources, distribution and fate in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting. In addition, the study determines whether N and P are subject to transport into the adjacent estuary and thus into the marine environment; also considered is the effect of local topography, soils and geology on N and P sources and distribution. The thesis is structured on four components individually reported. The first paper determines the controls of catchment settings and processes on stream water, riverbank sediment, and shallow groundwater N and P concentrations, in particular during the extended dry conditions that were encountered during the study. Temporal and spatial factors such as seasonal changes, soil character, land use and catchment morphology are considered as well as their effect on controls over distributions of N and P in surface waters and associated groundwater. A total number of 30 surface and 13 shallow groundwater sampling sites were established throughout the catchment to represent dominant soil types and the land use upstream of each sampling location. Sampling comprises five rounds and was conducted over one year between October 2008 and November 2009. Surface water and groundwater samples were analysed for all major dissolved inorganic forms of N and for total N. Phosphorus was determined in the form of dissolved reactive P (predominantly orthophosphate) and total P. In addition, extracts of stream bank sediments and soil grab samples were analysed for these N and P species. Findings show that major storm events, in particular after long periods of drought conditions, are the driving force of N cycling. This is expressed by higher inorganic N concentrations in the agricultural subcatchment compared to the forested subcatchment. Nitrate N is the dominant inorganic form of N in both the surface and groundwaters and values are significantly higher in the groundwaters. Concentrations in the surface water range from 0.03 to 0.34 mg N L..1; organic N concentrations are considerably higher (average range: 0.33 to 0.85 mg N L..1), in particular in the forested subcatchment. Average NO3-N in the groundwater has a range of 0.39 to 2.08 mg N L..1, and organic N averages between 0.07 and 0.3 mg N L..1. The stream bank sediments are dominated by organic N (range: 0.53 to 0.65 mg N L..1), and the dominant inorganic form of N is NH4-N with values ranging between 0.38 and 0.41 mg N L..1. Topography and soils, however, were not to have a significant effect on N and P concentrations in waters. Detectable phosphorus in the surface and groundwaters of the catchment is limited to several locations typically in the proximity of areas with intensive animal use; in soil and sediments, P is negligible. In the second paper, the stable isotopes of N (14N/15N) and H2O (16O/18O and 2H/H) in surface and groundwaters are used to identify sources of dissolved inorganic and organic N in these waters, and to determine their pathways within the catchment; specific emphasis is placed on the relation of forestry and agriculture. Forestry is predominantly concentrated in the northern subcatchment (Beerburrum Creek) while agriculture is mainly found in the southern subcatchment (Six Mile Creek). Results show that agriculture (horticulture, crops, grazing) is the main source of inorganic N in the surface waters of the agricultural subcatchment, and their isotopic signature shows a close link to evaporation processes that may occur during water storage in farm dams that are used for irrigation. Groundwaters are subject to denitrification processes that may result in reduced dissolved inorganic N concentrations. Soil organic matter delivers most of the inorganic N to the surface water in the forested subcatchment. Here, precipitation and subsequently runoff is the main source of the surface waters. Groundwater in this area is affected by agricultural processes. The findings also show that the catchment can attenuate the effects of anthropogenic land use on surface water quality. Riparian strips of natural remnant vegetation, commonly 50 to 100 m in width, act as buffer zones along the drainage lines in the catchment and remove inorganic N from the soil water before it enters the creek. These riparian buffer zones are common in most agricultural catchments of southeast Queensland and are indicated to reduce the impact of agriculture on stream water quality and subsequently on the estuary and marine environments. This reduction is expressed by a significant decrease in DIN concentrations from 1.6 mg N L..1 to 0.09 mg N L..1, and a decrease in the �15N signatures from upstream surface water locations downstream to the outlet of the agricultural subcatchment. Further testing is, however, necessary to confirm these processes. Most importantly, the amount of N that is transported to the adjacent estuary is shown to be negligible. The third and fourth components of the thesis use a hydrological catchment model approach to determine the water balance of the Elimbah Creek catchment. The model is then used to simulate the effects of land use on the water balance and nutrient loads of the study area. The tool that is used is the internationally widely applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Knowledge about the water cycle of a catchment is imperative in nutrient studies as processes such as rainfall, surface runoff, soil infiltration and routing of water through the drainage system are the driving forces of the catchment nutrient cycle. Long-term information about discharge volumes of the creeks and rivers do, however, not exist for a number of agricultural catchments in southeast Queensland, and such information is necessary to calibrate and validate numerical models. Therefore, a two-step modelling approach was used to calibrate and validate parameters values from a near-by gauged reference catchment as starting values for the ungauged Elimbah Creek catchment. Transposing monthly calibrated and validated parameter values from the reference catchment to the ungauged catchment significantly improved model performance showing that the hydrological model of the catchment of interest is a strong predictor of the water water balance. The model efficiency coefficient EF shows that 94% of the simulated discharge matches the observed flow whereas only 54% of the observed streamflow was simulated by the SWAT model prior to using the validated values from the reference catchment. In addition, the hydrological model confirmed that total surface runoff contributes the majority of flow to the surface water in the catchment (65%). Only a small proportion of the water in the creek is contributed by total base-flow (35%). This finding supports the results of the stable isotopes 16O/18O and 2H/H, which show the main source of water in the creeks is either from local precipitation or irrigation waters delivered by surface runoff; a contribution from the groundwater (baseflow) to the creeks could not be identified using 16O/18O and 2H/H. In addition, the SWAT model calculated that around 68% of the rainfall occurring in the catchment is lost through evapotranspiration reflecting the prevailing long-term drought conditions that were observed prior and during the study. Stream discharge from the forested subcatchment was an order of magnitude lower than discharge from the agricultural Six Mile Creek subcatchment. A change in land use from forestry to agriculture did not significantly change the catchment water balance, however, nutrient loads increased considerably. Conversely, a simulated change from agriculture to forestry resulted in a significant decrease of nitrogen loads. The findings of the thesis and the approach used are shown to be of value to catchment water quality monitoring on a wider scale, in particular the implications of mixed land use on nutrient forms, distributions and concentrations. The study confirms that in the tropics and subtropics the water balance is affected by extended dry periods and seasonal rainfall with intensive storm events. In particular, the comprehensive data set of inorganic and organic N and P forms in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting acquired during the one year sampling program may be used in similar catchment hydrological studies where these detailed information is missing. Also, the study concludes that riparian buffer zones along the catchment drainage system attenuate the transport of nitrogen from agricultural sources in the surface water. Concentrations of N decreased from upstream to downstream locations and were negligible at the outlet of the catchment.