Unbiased estimation of the half-life to price index convergence among U.S. cities

Estimates of the half-life to convergence of prices across a panel of cities are subject to bias from three potential sources: inappropriate cross-sectional aggregation of heterogeneous coefficients, presence of lagged dependent variables in a model with individual fixed effects, and time aggregation of commodity prices. This paper finds no evidence of heterogeneity bias in annual CPI data for 17 U.S. cities from 1918 to 2006, but correcting for the “Nickell bias” and time aggregation bias produces a half-life of 7.5 years, shorter than estimates from previous studies.

Cardiac ARIA Index: Measuring Accessibility to Cardiovascular Services in Rural and Remote Australia via Applied Geographic Spatial Technology

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to impose a heavy burden in terms of cost, disability and death in Australia. Evidence suggests that increasing remoteness, where cardiac services are scarce, is linked to an increased risk of dying from CVD. Fatal CVD events are reported to be between 20% and 50% higher in rural areas compared to major cities. The Cardiac ARIA project, with its extensive use of geographic Information Systems (GIS), ranks each of Australia’s 20,387 urban, rural and remote population centres by accessibility to essential services or resources for the management of a cardiac event. This unique, innovative and highly collaborative project delivers a powerful tool to highlight and combat the burden imposed by cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australia. Cardiac ARIA is innovative. It is a model that could be applied internationally and to other acute and chronic conditions such as mental health, midwifery, cancer, respiratory, diabetes and burns services. Cardiac ARIA was designed to: 1. Determine by expert panel, what were the minimal services and resources required for the management of a cardiac event in any urban, rural or remote population locations in Australia using a single patient pathway to access care. 2. Derive a classification using GIS accessibility modelling for each of Australia’s 20,387 urban, rural and remote population locations. 3. Compare the Cardiac ARIA categories and population locations with census derived population characteristics. Key findings are as follows: • In the event of a cardiac emergency, the majority of Australians had very good access to cardiac services. Approximately 71% or 13.9 million people lived within one hour of a category one hospital. • 68% of older Australians lived within one hour of a category one hospital (Principal Referral Hospital with access to Cardiac Catheterisation). • Only 40% of indigenous people lived within one hour of the category one hospital. • 16% (74000) of indigenous people lived more than one hour from a hospital. • 3% (91,000) of people 65 years of age or older lived more than one hour from any hospital or clinic. • Approximately 96%, or 19 million, of people lived within one hour of the four key services to support cardiac rehabilitation and secondary prevention. • 75% of indigenous people lived within one hour of the four cardiac rehabilitation services to support cardiac rehabilitation and secondary prevention. Fourteen percent (64,000 persons) indigenous people had poor access to the four key services to support cardiac rehabilitation and secondary prevention. • 12% (56,000) of indigenous people were more than one hour from a hospital and only had access one the four key services (usually a medical service) to support cardiac rehabilitation and secondary prevention.

Thomas Young’s contributions to geometrical optics

In addition to his work on physical optics, Thomas Young (1773-1829) made several contributions to geometrical optics, most of which received little recognition in his time or since. We describe and assess some of these contributions: Young’s construction (the basis for much of his geometric work), paraxial refraction equations, oblique astigmatism and field curvature, and gradient-index optics.

Thomas Young’s investigations in gradient-index optics

Purpose: James Clerk Maxwell is usually recognized as being the first, in 1854, to consider using inhomogeneous media in optical systems. However, some fifty years earlier Thomas Young, stimulated by his interest in the optics of the eye and accommodation, had already modeled some applications of gradient-index optics. These applications included using an axial gradient to provide spherical aberration-free optics and a spherical gradient to describe the optics of the atmosphere and the eye lens. We evaluated Young’s contributions. Method: We attempted to derive Young’s equations for axial and spherical refractive index gradients. Raytracing was used to confirm accuracy of formula. Results: We did not confirm Young’s equation for the axial gradient to provide aberration-free optics, but derived a slightly different equation. We confirmed the correctness of his equations for deviation of rays in a spherical gradient index and for the focal length of a lens with a nucleus of fixed index surrounded by a cortex of reducing index towards the edge. Young claimed that the equation for focal length applied to a lens with part of the constant index nucleus of the sphere removed, such that the loss of focal length was a quarter of the thickness removed, but this is not strictly correct. Conclusion: Young’s theoretical work in gradient-index optics received no acknowledgement from either his contemporaries or later authors. While his model of the eye lens is not an accurate physiological description of the human lens, with the index reducing least quickly at the edge, it represented a bold attempt to approximate the characteristics of the lens. Thomas Young’s work deserves wider recognition.

Statistical eye model for normal eyes

Purpose. To create a binocular statistical eye model based on previously measured ocular biometric data. Methods. Thirty-nine parameters were determined for a group of 127 healthy subjects (37 male, 90 female; 96.8% Caucasian) with an average age of 39.9 ± 12.2 years and spherical equivalent refraction of −0.98 ± 1.77 D. These parameters described the biometry of both eyes and the subjects' age. Missing parameters were complemented by data from a previously published study. After confirmation of the Gaussian shape of their distributions, these parameters were used to calculate their mean and covariance matrices. These matrices were then used to calculate a multivariate Gaussian distribution. From this, an amount of random biometric data could be generated, which were then randomly selected to create a realistic population of random eyes. Results. All parameters had Gaussian distributions, with the exception of the parameters that describe total refraction (i.e., three parameters per eye). After these non-Gaussian parameters were omitted from the model, the generated data were found to be statistically indistinguishable from the original data for the remaining 33 parameters (TOST [two one-sided t tests]; P < 0.01). Parameters derived from the generated data were also significantly indistinguishable from those calculated with the original data (P > 0.05). The only exception to this was the lens refractive index, for which the generated data had a significantly larger SD. Conclusions. A statistical eye model can describe the biometric variations found in a population and is a useful addition to the classic eye models.

Can the Cardiac ARIA Index Improve Cardiac Care for Australia's Indigenous Population?

Background: Timely access to appropriate cardiac care is critical for optimising outcomes. Our aim was to derive an objective, comparable, geographic measure reflecting access to cardiac services for Australia's 20,387 population locations. Methods: An expert panel defined a single patient care pathway. Using geographic information systems (GIS) the numeric/alpha index was modelled in two phases. The acute phase index (numeric) ranged from 1 (access to tertiary centre with PCI ≤1 h) to 8 (no ambulance service, >3 h to medical facility, air transport required). The aftercare index was modelled into 5 alphabetic categories; A (Access to general practitioner, pharmacy, cardiac rehabilitation, pathology ≤1 h) to E (no services available within 1 h). Results: Approximately 70% or 13.9 million people lived within a CardiacARIAindex category 1A location. Disparity continues in access to category 1A cardiac services for 5.8 million (30%) of all Australians, 60% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and 32% of people over 65 years of age. In a cardiac emergency only 40% of the Indigenous population reside within one hour of category 1 hospital. Approximately 30% (81,491 Indigenous persons) are more than one to three hours from basic cardiac services. Conclusion: Geographically, the majority of Australian's have timely access for survival of a cardiac event. The CardiacARIAindex objectively demonstrates that the healthcare system may not be providing for the needs of 60% of Indigenous people residing outside the 1A geographic radius. Innovative clinical practice maybe required to address these disparities.

Where not to have a Heart Attack in Australia!: The Cardiac ARIA Index

Background/aims: Access to appropriate health care following an acute cardiac event is important for positive outcomes. The aim of the Cardiac ARIA index was to derive an objective, comparable, geographic measure reflecting access to cardiac services across Australia. Methods: Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to model a numeric-alpha index based on acute management from onset of symptoms to return to the community. Acute time frames have been calculated to include time for ambulance to arrive, assess and load patient, and travel to facility by road 40–80 kph. Results: The acute phase of the index was modelled into five categories: 1 [24/7 percutaneous cardiac intervention (PCI) ≤1 h]; 2 [24/7 PCI 1–3 h, and PCI less than an additional hour to nearest accident and emergency room (A&E)]: 3 [Nearest A&E ≤3 h (no 24/7 PCI within an extra hour)]: 4 [Nearest A&E 3–12 h (no 24/7 PCI within an extra hour)]: 5 [Nearest A&E 12–24 h (no 24/7 PCI within an extra hour)]. Discharge care was modelled into three categories based on time to a cardiac rehabilitation program, retail pharmacy, pathology services, hospital, GP or remote clinic: (A) all services ≤30 min; (B) >30 min and ≤60 min; (C) >60 min. Examples of the index indicate that the majority of population locations within capital cities were category 1A; Alice Springs and Byron Bay were 3A; and the Northern Territory town of Maningrida had minimal access to cardiac services with an index ranking of 5C. Conclusion: The Cardiac ARIA index provides an invaluable tool to inform appropriate strategies for the use of scarce cardiac resources.

Eye shape and retinal shape, and their relation to peripheral refraction

Purpose: We provide an account of the relationships between eye shape, retinal shape and peripheral refraction. Recent findings: We discuss how eye and retinal shapes may be described as conicoids, and we describe an axis and section reference system for determining shapes. Explanations are given of how patterns of retinal expansion during the development of myopia may contribute to changing patterns of peripheral refraction, and how pre-existing retinal shape might contribute to the development of myopia. Direct and indirect techniques for determining eye and retinal shape are described, and results are discussed. There is reasonable consistency in the literature of eye length increasing at a greater rate than height and width as the degree of myopia increases, so that eyes may be described as changing from oblate/spherical shapes to prolate shapes. However, one study indicates that the retina itself, while showing the same trend, remains oblate in shape for most eyes (discounting high myopia). Eye shape and retinal shape are not the same and merely describing an eye shape as being prolate or oblate is insufficient without some understanding of the parameters contributing to this; in myopia a prolate eye shape is likely to involve both a steepening retina near the posterior pole combined with a flattening (or a reduction in steepening compared with an emmetrope) away from the pole.

Linear and nonlinear propagation of localised plasmon in metallic nanostructures

A major challenge in modern photonics and nano-optics is the diffraction limit of light which does not allow field localisation into regions with dimensions smaller than half the wavelength. Localisation of light into nanoscale regions (beyond its diffraction limit) has applications ranging from the design of optical sensors and measurement techniques with resolutions as high as a few nanometres, to the effective delivery of optical energy into targeted nanoscale regions such as quantum dots, nano-electronic and nano-optical devices. This field has become a major research direction over the last decade. The use of strongly localised surface plasmons in metallic nanostructures is one of the most promising approaches to overcome this problem. Therefore, the aim of this thesis is to investigate the linear and non-linear propagation of surface plasmons in metallic nanostructures. This thesis will focus on two main areas of plasmonic research –– plasmon nanofocusing and plasmon nanoguiding. Plasmon nanofocusing – The main aim of plasmon nanofocusing research is to focus plasmon energy into nanoscale regions using metallic nanostructures and at the same time achieve strong local field enhancement. Various structures for nanofocusing purposes have been proposed and analysed such as sharp metal wedges, tapered metal films on dielectric substrates, tapered metal rods, and dielectric V-grooves in metals. However, a number of important practical issues related to nanofocusing in these structures still remain unclear. Therefore, one of the main aims of this thesis is to address two of the most important of issues which are the coupling efficiency and heating effects of surface plasmons in metallic nanostructures. The method of analysis developed throughout this thesis is a general treatment that can be applied to a diversity of nanofocusing structures, with results shown here for the specific case of sharp metal wedges. Based on the geometrical optics approximation, it is demonstrated that the coupling efficiency from plasmons generated with a metal grating into the nanofocused symmetric or quasi-symmetric modes may vary between ~50% to ~100% depending on the structural parameters. Optimal conditions for nanofocusing with the view to minimise coupling and dissipative losses are also determined and discussed. It is shown that the temperature near the tip of a metal wedge heated by nanosecond plasmonic pulses can increase by several hundred degrees Celsius. This temperature increase is expected to lead to nonlinear effects, self-influence of the focused plasmon, and ultimately self-destruction of the metal tip. This thesis also investigates a different type of nanofocusing structure which consists of a tapered high-index dielectric layer resting on a metal surface. It is shown that the nanofocusing mechanism that occurs in this structure is somewhat different from other structures that have been considered thus far. For example, the surface plasmon experiences significant backreflection and mode transformation at a cut-off thickness. In addition, the reflected plasmon shows negative refraction properties that have not been observed in other nanofocusing structures considered to date. Plasmon nanoguiding – Guiding surface plasmons using metallic nanostructures is important for the development of highly integrated optical components and circuits which are expected to have a superior performance compared to their electronicbased counterparts. A number of different plasmonic waveguides have been considered over the last decade including the recently considered gap and trench plasmon waveguides. The gap and trench plasmon waveguides have proven to be difficult to fabricate. Therefore, this thesis will propose and analyse four different modified gap and trench plasmon waveguides that are expected to be easier to fabricate, and at the same time acquire improved propagation characteristics of the guided mode. In particular, it is demonstrated that the guided modes are significantly screened by the extended metal at the bottom of the structure. This is important for the design of highly integrated optics as it provides the opportunity to place two waveguides close together without significant cross-talk. This thesis also investigates the use of plasmonic nanowires to construct a Fabry-Pérot resonator/interferometer. It is shown that the resonance effect can be achieved with the appropriate resonator length and gap width. Typical quality factors of the Fabry- Pérot cavity are determined and explained in terms of radiative and dissipative losses. The possibility of using a nanowire resonator for the design of plasmonic filters with close to ~100% transmission is also demonstrated. It is expected that the results obtained in this thesis will play a vital role in the development of high resolution near field microscopy and spectroscopy, new measurement techniques and devices for single molecule detection, highly integrated optical devices, and nanobiotechnology devices for diagnostics of living cells.

An improved method to detect damage using modal strain energy based damage index

This paper presents two novel concepts to enhance the accuracy of damage detection using the Modal Strain Energy based Damage Index (MSEDI) with the presence of noise in the mode shape data. Firstly, the paper presents a sequential curve fitting technique that reduces the effect of noise on the calculation process of the MSEDI, more effectively than the two commonly used curve fitting techniques; namely, polynomial and Fourier’s series. Secondly, a probability based Generalized Damage Localization Index (GDLI) is proposed as a viable improvement to the damage detection process. The study uses a validated ABAQUS finite-element model of a reinforced concrete beam to obtain mode shape data in the undamaged and damaged states. Noise is simulated by adding three levels of random noise (1%, 3%, and 5%) to the mode shape data. Results show that damage detection is enhanced with increased number of modes and samples used with the GDLI.