Psychiatric and substance abuse comorbidity among a large sample of DUI Texas offenders

Research is indicating that individuals who present for DUI treatment may have competing substance abuse and mental health needs. This study aimed to examine the extent of such comorbidity issues among a sample of Texas DUI offenders. Method: Records of 36,372 DUI clients and 308,695 non-DUI clients admitted to Texas treatment programs between 2005 and 2008 were obtained from the State's administrative dataset. The data were analysed to identify the relationship between substance use, psychiatric problems, program completion and recidivism rates. Results: Analysis indicated that while non-DUI clients were more likely to present with more severe illicit substance use problems, DUI clients were more likely to have a primary problem with alcohol. Additionally, a cannabis use problem was also found to be significantly associated with DUI recidivism in the last year. In regards to mental health needs, a major finding was that depression was the most common psychiatric condition reported by DUI clients, including those with more than one DUI offence in the past year. This group were also more at risk of being diagnosed with Bipolar Disorder compared to the general population, and such a diagnosis was also associated with an increased likelihood of not completing treatment. Interestingly, female DUI and non-DUI clients were also more likely to be diagnosed with mental health problems compared to males, as well as more likely to be placed on medications at admission and have problems with methamphetamine, cocaine, and opiates. Conclusion: The findings highlight the complex competing needs of some DUI offenders who enter treatment. The results also suggest that there is a need to utilise mental health and substance abuse screening methods to ensure DUI offenders are directed towards appropriate treatment pathways as well as ensure that such interventions adequately cater for complex substance abuse and psychiatric needs.

Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Factors affecting somatic embryogenesis and transformation in modern plant breeding

Somatic embryogenesis and transformation systems are indispensable modern plant breeding components since they provide an alternative platform to develop control strategies against the plethora of pests and diseases affecting many agronomic crops. This review discusses some of the factors affecting somatic embryogenesis and transformation, highlights the advantages and limitations of these systems and explores these systems as breeding tools for the development of crops with improved agronomic traits. The regeneration of non-chimeric transgenic crops through somatic embryogenesis with introduced disease and pest-resistant genes for instance, would be of significant benefit to growers worldwide.

Incidence, severity and correlates of bicycling injuries in a sample of cyclists in Queensland, Australia

Bicycle injuries, particularly those resulting from single bicycle crashes, are underreported in both police and hospital records. Data on cyclist characteristics and crash circumstances are also often lacking. As a result, the ability to develop comprehensive injury prevention policies is hampered. The aim of this study was to examine the incidence, severity, cyclist characteristics, and crash circumstances associated with cycling injuries in a sample of cyclists in Queensland, Australia. A cross-sectional study of Queensland cyclists was conducted in 2009. Respondents (n=2056) completed an online survey about their cycling experiences, including cycling injuries. Logistic regression modelling was used to examine the associations between demographic and cycling behaviour variables with experiencing cycling injuries in the past year, and, separately, with serious cycling injuries requiring a trip to a hospital. Twenty-seven percent of respondents (n=545) reported injuries, and 6% (n=114) reported serious injuries. In multivariable modelling, reporting an injury was more likely for respondents who had cycled <5 years, compared to ≥10 years (p<0.005); cycled for competition (p=0.01); or experienced harassment from motor vehicle occupants (p<0.001). There were no gender differences in injury incidence, and respondents who cycled for transport did not have an increased risk of injury. Reporting a serious injury was more likely for those whose injury involved other road users (p<0.03). Along with environmental and behavioural approaches for reducing collisions and near-collisions with motor vehicles, interventions that improve the design and maintenance of cycling infrastructure, increase cyclists’ skills, and encourage safe cycling behaviours and bicycle maintenance will also be important for reducing the overall incidence of cycling injuries.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

The sample complexity of pattern classification with neural networks: the size of the weights is more important than the size of the network

Sample complexity results from computational learning theory, when applied to neural network learning for pattern classification problems, suggest that for good generalization performance the number of training examples should grow at least linearly with the number of adjustable parameters in the network. Results in this paper show that if a large neural network is used for a pattern classification problem and the learning algorithm finds a network with small weights that has small squared error on the training patterns, then the generalization performance depends on the size of the weights rather than the number of weights. For example, consider a two-layer feedforward network of sigmoid units, in which the sum of the magnitudes of the weights associated with each unit is bounded by A and the input dimension is n. We show that the misclassification probability is no more than a certain error estimate (that is related to squared error on the training set) plus A3 √((log n)/m) (ignoring log A and log m factors), where m is the number of training patterns. This may explain the generalization performance of neural networks, particularly when the number of training examples is considerably smaller than the number of weights. It also supports heuristics (such as weight decay and early stopping) that attempt to keep the weights small during training. The proof techniques appear to be useful for the analysis of other pattern classifiers: when the input domain is a totally bounded metric space, we use the same approach to give upper bounds on misclassification probability for classifiers with decision boundaries that are far from the training examples.

Shifting : one-inclusion mistake bounds and sample compression

We present new expected risk bounds for binary and multiclass prediction, and resolve several recent conjectures on sample compressibility due to Kuzmin and Warmuth. By exploiting the combinatorial structure of concept class F, Haussler et al. achieved a VC(F)/n bound for the natural one-inclusion prediction strategy. The key step in their proof is a d = VC(F) bound on the graph density of a subgraph of the hypercube—oneinclusion graph. The first main result of this paper is a density bound of n [n−1 <=d-1]/[n <=d] < d, which positively resolves a conjecture of Kuzmin and Warmuth relating to their unlabeled Peeling compression scheme and also leads to an improved one-inclusion mistake bound. The proof uses a new form of VC-invariant shifting and a group-theoretic symmetrization. Our second main result is an algebraic topological property of maximum classes of VC-dimension d as being d contractible simplicial complexes, extending the well-known characterization that d = 1 maximum classes are trees. We negatively resolve a minimum degree conjecture of Kuzmin and Warmuth—the second part to a conjectured proof of correctness for Peeling—that every class has one-inclusion minimum degree at most its VCdimension. Our final main result is a k-class analogue of the d/n mistake bound, replacing the VC-dimension by the Pollard pseudo-dimension and the one-inclusion strategy by its natural hypergraph generalization. This result improves on known PAC-based expected risk bounds by a factor of O(logn) and is shown to be optimal up to an O(logk) factor. The combinatorial technique of shifting takes a central role in understanding the one-inclusion (hyper)graph and is a running theme throughout.

Corrigendum to “Shifting : one-inclusion mistake bounds and sample compression” [J. Comput. System Sci. 75 (1) (2009) 37–59]

H. Simon and B. Szörényi have found an error in the proof of Theorem 52 of “Shifting: One-inclusion mistake bounds and sample compression”, Rubinstein et al. (2009). In this note we provide a corrected proof of a slightly weakened version of this theorem. Our new bound on the density of one-inclusion hypergraphs is again in terms of the capacity of the multilabel concept class. Simon and Szörényi have recently proved an alternate result in Simon and Szörényi (2009).

On the optimality of sample-based estimates of the expectation of the empirical minimizer

We study sample-based estimates of the expectation of the function produced by the empirical minimization algorithm. We investigate the extent to which one can estimate the rate of convergence of the empirical minimizer in a data dependent manner. We establish three main results. First, we provide an algorithm that upper bounds the expectation of the empirical minimizer in a completely data-dependent manner. This bound is based on a structural result due to Bartlett and Mendelson, which relates expectations to sample averages. Second, we show that these structural upper bounds can be loose, compared to previous bounds. In particular, we demonstrate a class for which the expectation of the empirical minimizer decreases as O(1/n) for sample size n, although the upper bound based on structural properties is Ω(1). Third, we show that this looseness of the bound is inevitable: we present an example that shows that a sharp bound cannot be universally recovered from empirical data.

Shifting : one-inclusion mistake bounds and sample compression

We present new expected risk bounds for binary and multiclass prediction, and resolve several recent conjectures on sample compressibility due to Kuzmin and Warmuth. By exploiting the combinatorial structure of concept class F, Haussler et al. achieved a VC(F)/n bound for the natural one-inclusion prediction strategy. The key step in their proof is a d=VC(F) bound on the graph density of a subgraph of the hypercube—one-inclusion graph. The first main result of this report is a density bound of n∙choose(n-1,≤d-1)/choose(n,≤d) < d, which positively resolves a conjecture of Kuzmin and Warmuth relating to their unlabeled Peeling compression scheme and also leads to an improved one-inclusion mistake bound. The proof uses a new form of VC-invariant shifting and a group-theoretic symmetrization. Our second main result is an algebraic topological property of maximum classes of VC-dimension d as being d-contractible simplicial complexes, extending the well-known characterization that d=1 maximum classes are trees. We negatively resolve a minimum degree conjecture of Kuzmin and Warmuth—the second part to a conjectured proof of correctness for Peeling—that every class has one-inclusion minimum degree at most its VC-dimension. Our final main result is a k-class analogue of the d/n mistake bound, replacing the VC-dimension by the Pollard pseudo-dimension and the one-inclusion strategy by its natural hypergraph generalization. This result improves on known PAC-based expected risk bounds by a factor of O(log n) and is shown to be optimal up to a O(log k) factor. The combinatorial technique of shifting takes a central role in understanding the one-inclusion (hyper)graph and is a running theme throughout