AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0902, February 2009: Presidents Message

President’s Report Hello fellow AITPM members, Welcome to the first edition of the AITPM National Newsletter for 2009! I trust we all had a relaxing break and managed to lose track of all things transport for just a little while. I know I had trouble doing so when hunting for a car space at the shopping centre, and experiencing new projects such as the Tugun Bypass – the new gateway between New South Wales and Queensland. Byron Bay is now as close as Noosa for those high profile beach goers of Brisbane. There was also my experience of the reduced posted speed of 90km/h on the Bruce Highway around the troublesome Gympie stretch, when returning from a short Fraser Coast holiday. I expect that this relatively inexpensive safety improvement will pay substantial dividends in terms of crash reduction. The Newsletter took its annual leave last month and is refreshed and ready for a new year to keep us all informed of the latest in traffic and transport engineering, planning and management. I would like to take this opportunity to acknowledge the ongoing significant contributions of many volunteers in the Newsletter’s production. Mr Andrew Hulse, AITPM’s Immediate Past National President, serves as the Editorial Coordinator on behalf of the Institute. Each Branch Committee also includes a Newsletter Coordinator and committee members frequently contribute as well. And the ongoing contributions of readers enable us to offer the Newsletter as a vehicle for dialogue and debate around our sector. If you would like to contribute please email AITPM’s administration officer Josephine Mitton at aitpm@aitpm.com or through your local Branch Committee. I would also like to welcome back on deck our Editor, Mr David Brown of Driven Media, who creates a fantastic package for us each month. Lastly, members would have received the Call for Papers for the AITPM 2009 National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, to be held at the Adelaide Convention Centre between 5 – 7 August. Abstracts will be accepted up to 20 February 2009. We look forward to seeing everyone at this, our flagship event for the year. To all a good year ahead, Jon Bunker Post Script: We all will have seen through the media the enormous scale and nature of the two natural disasters Australia is experiencing at present. AITPM’s thoughts are with all of those members, family and friends who may be experiencing hardship as a result of the Victorian bushfires and North Queensland floods. AITPM is a not for profit organisation however the National Executive has taken the decision to donate in measure to the Red Cross Victorian Bushfire Disaster Relief fund and the Queensland Premier’s Disaster Relief fund as a gesture to support our fellow Australians in their time of need. Details about these funds can be found via the Victorian and Queensland Governments’ websites.

Synopolies: The use of cryptographic technologies to impede competition in multiple jurisdictions

Many jurisdictions have developed mature infrastructures, both administratively and legislatively, to promote competition. Substantial funds have been expended to monitor activities that are anticompetitive and many jurisdictions also have adopted a form of "Cartel Leniency Program", first developed by the US Federal Trade Commission, to assist in cartel detection. Further, some jurisdictions are now criminalizing cartel behaviour so that cartel participants can be held criminally liable with substantial custodial penalties imposed. Notwithstanding these multijurisdictional approaches, a new form of possibly anticompetitive behaviour is looming. Synergistic monopolies („synopolies‟) involve not competitors within a horizontal market but complimentors within separate vertical markets. Where two complimentary corporations are monopolists in their own market they can, through various technologies, assist each other to expand their respective monopolies thus creating a barrier to new entrants and/or blocking existing participants from further participation in that market. The nature of the technologies involved means that it is easy for this potentially anti-competitive activity to enter and affect the global marketplace. Competition regulators need to be aware of this potential for abuse and ensure that their respective competition frameworks appropriately address this activity. This paper discusses how new technologies can be used to create a synopoly.

The efficacy of the Sortino ratio and other benchmarked performance measures under skewed return distributions

This paper will investigate the suitability of existing performance measures under the assumption of a clearly defined benchmark. A range of measures are examined including the Sortino Ratio, the Sharpe Selection ratio (SSR), the Student’s t-test and a decay rate measure. A simulation study is used to assess the power and bias of these measures based on variations in sample size and mean performance of two simulated funds. The Sortino Ratio is found to be the superior performance measure exhibiting more power and less bias than the SSR when the distribution of excess returns are skewed.

Do derivatives have a role in the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers?

In this paper we examine the extent to which derivatives are used to affect the risk-shifting behaviour of Australian equity fund managers. We find, after periods of good and poor performance, the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers is different between derivative users and non-users. Our results support the gaming and active competition hypotheses but there is little support for the cash flow hypothesis. The study also allows for a complex reporting environment by analysing data across three alternate time periods: the calendar year, financial year and quarterly frames. Given that our results are not consistent across time periods for users and non-users of derivatives, some caution in interpretation is required.

“Filling out the forms was a nightmare” : project evaluation and the reflective practitioner in community theatre in contemporary Northern Ireland

Since the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, large sums have been invested in community theatre projects in Northern Ireland, in the interests of conflict transformation and peace building. While this injection of funds has resulted in an unprecedented level of applied theatre activity, opportunities to maximise learning from this activity are being missed. It is generally assumed that project evaluation is undertaken at least partly to assess the degree of success of projects against important social objectives, with a view to learning what works, what does not, and what might work in the future. However, three ethnographic case studies of organisations delivering applied theatre projects in Northern Ireland indicate that current processes used to evaluate such projects are both flawed and inadequate for this purpose. Practitioners report that the administrative work involved in applying for and justifying funding is onerous, burdensome, and occurs at the expense of artistic activity. This is a very real concern when the time and effort devoted to ‘filling out the forms’ does not ultimately result in useful evaluative information. There are strong disincentives for organisations to report honestly on their experiences of difficulties, or undesirable impacts of projects, and this problem is not transcended by the use of external evaluators. Current evaluation processes provide little opportunity to capture unexpected benefits of projects, and small but significant successes which occur in the context of over-ambitious objectives. Little or no attempt is made to assess long-term impacts of projects on communities. Finally, official evaluation mechanisms fail to capture the reflective practice and dialogic analysis of practitioners, which would richly inform future projects. The authors argue that there is a need for clearer lines of communication, and more opportunities for mutual learning, among stakeholders involved in community development. In particular, greater involvement of the higher education sector in partnership with government and non-government agencies could yield significant benefits in terms of optimizing learning from applied theatre project evaluations.

Housing supply in Australia : the impact of the availability of development finance

Before the Global Financial Crisis many providers of finance had growth mandates and actively pursued development finance deals as a way of gaining higher returns on funds with regular capital turnover and re-investment possible. This was able to be achieved through high gearing and low presales in a strong market. As asset prices fell, loan covenants breached and memories of the 1990’s returned, banks rapidly adjusted their risk appetite via retraction of gearing and expansion of presale requirements. Early signs of loosening in bank credit policy are emerging, however parties seeking development finance are faced with a severely reduced number of institutions from which to source funding. The few institutions that are lending are filtering out only the best credit risks by way of constrictive credit conditions including: low loan to value ratios, the corresponding requirement to contribute high levels of equity, lack of support in non-prime locations and the requirement for only borrowers with well established track records. In this risk averse and capital constrained environment, the ability of developers to proceed with real estate developments is still being constrained by their inability to obtain project finance. This paper will examine the pre and post GFC development finance environment. It will identify the key lending criteria relevant to real estate development finance and will detail the related changes to credit policies over this period. The associated impact to real estate development projects will be presented, highlighting the significant constraint to supply that the inability to obtain finance poses.

Case-control study of early childhood caries in Australia

The aim of this case-control study of 617 children was to investigate early childhood caries (ECC) risk indicators in a non-fluoridated region in Australia. ECC cases were recruited from childcare facilities, public hospitals and private specialist clinics to source children from different socioeconomic backgrounds. Non-ECC controls were recruited from the same childcare facilities. A multinomial logistic modelling approach was used for statistical analysis. The results showed that a large percentage of children tested positive for Streptococcus mutans if their mothers also tested positive. A common risk indicator found in ECC children from childcare facilities and public hospitals was visible plaque (OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.0-15.9, and OR 8.7, 95% CI 2.3-32.9, respectively). Compared to ECC-free controls, the risk indicators specific to childcare cases were enamel hypoplasia (OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.0-18.3), difficulty in cleaning child's teeth (OR 6.6, 95% CI 2.2-19.8), presence of S. mutans (OR 4.8, 95% CI 0.7-32.6), sweetened drinks (OR 4.0, 95% CI 1.2-13.6) and maternal anxiety (OR 5.1, 95% CI 1.1-25.0). Risk indicators specific to public hospital cases were S. mutans presence in child (OR 7.7, 95% CI 1.3-44.6) or mother (OR 8.1, 95% CI 0.9-72.4), ethnicity (OR 5.6, 95% CI 1.4-22.1), and access of mother to pension or health care card (OR 20.5, 95% CI 3.5-119.9). By contrast, a history of chronic ear infections was found to be protective for ECC in childcare children (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.09-0.82). The biological, socioeconomic and maternal risk indicators demonstrated in the present study can be employed in models of ECC that can be usefully applied for future longitudinal studies.

Single case experimental design : an overview

Background: In health related research, it is critical not only to demonstrate the efficacy of intervention, but to show that this is not due to chance or confounding variables. Content: Single case experimental design is a useful quasi-experimental design and method used to achieve these goals when there are limited participants and funds for research. This type of design has various advantages compared to group experimental designs. One such advantage is the capacity to focus on individual performance outcomes compared to group performance outcomes. Conclusions: This comprehensive review demonstrates the benefits and limitations of using single case experimental design, its various design methods, and data collection and analysis for research purposes.

Socially responsible investment in market downturns : implications for the fiduciary responsibilities of investment fund trustees

This paper investigates whether Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) is more or less sensitive to market downturns than conventional investment, and examines the legal implications for fund managers and trustees. Using a market model methodology, we find that over the past 15 years, the beta risk of SRI, both in Australia and internationally, increased more than that of conventional investment during economic downturns. This implies that companies acting as fund trustees, managed investment schemes and traditional institutional fund managers risk breaching their fiduciary or statutory duties if they go long - or remain long - in SRI funds during market downturns, unless perhaps relevant legislation is reformed. If reform is viewed as desirable, possible reforms could include explicitly overriding the common law to allow all traditional funds to invest in SRI; granting immunity to directors of trustee companies from potential personal liability under sections 197 or 588G et seq of the Corporations Act; allowing companies acting as trustees, managed investment schemes and traditional institutional fund managers and trustees to invest in SRI without triggering a substantial capital gains tax liability through trust resettlement; tax concessions for SRI (eg. introducing a 150% tax deduction or investment allowance for SRI); and allowing SRI sub-funds to obtain “deductible gift recipient” status or the equivalent from relevant taxation authorities. The research is important and original insofar as the assessment of risk in SRIs during market downturns is an area which has hitherto not been subjected to rigorous empirical investigation, despite its serious legal implications.

Don’t judge a superannuation default investment option by its name

With the massive decline in savings arising from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), it is timely to review superannuation fund investment and disclosure strategies in the lead-up to the crisis. Accordingly, this study examines differences among superannuation funds’ default investment options in terms of naming and framing over three years from 2005 to 2007, as presented in product disclosure statements (PDSs). The findings indicate that default options are becoming more alike regardless of their name, and consequently, members may face increasing difficulties in distinguishing between balanced and growth-named default options when comparing them across superannuation funds. Comparability is also likely to be constrained by variations in the framing of default options presented in investment option menus in PDSs. These findings highlight the need for standardisation of default option definitions and disclosures to ensure descriptive accuracy, transparency and comparability.

Applied batch cryptography

The material presented in this thesis may be viewed as comprising two key parts, the first part concerns batch cryptography specifically, whilst the second deals with how this form of cryptography may be applied to security related applications such as electronic cash for improving efficiency of the protocols. The objective of batch cryptography is to devise more efficient primitive cryptographic protocols. In general, these primitives make use of some property such as homomorphism to perform a computationally expensive operation on a collective input set. The idea is to amortise an expensive operation, such as modular exponentiation, over the input. Most of the research work in this field has concentrated on its employment as a batch verifier of digital signatures. It is shown that several new attacks may be launched against these published schemes as some weaknesses are exposed. Another common use of batch cryptography is the simultaneous generation of digital signatures. There is significantly less previous work on this area, and the present schemes have some limited use in practical applications. Several new batch signatures schemes are introduced that improve upon the existing techniques and some practical uses are illustrated. Electronic cash is a technology that demands complex protocols in order to furnish several security properties. These typically include anonymity, traceability of a double spender, and off-line payment features. Presently, the most efficient schemes make use of coin divisibility to withdraw one large financial amount that may be progressively spent with one or more merchants. Several new cash schemes are introduced here that make use of batch cryptography for improving the withdrawal, payment, and deposit of electronic coins. The devised schemes apply both to the batch signature and verification techniques introduced, demonstrating improved performance over the contemporary divisible based structures. The solutions also provide an alternative paradigm for the construction of electronic cash systems. Whilst electronic cash is used as the vehicle for demonstrating the relevance of batch cryptography to security related applications, the applicability of the techniques introduced extends well beyond this.

Safety-restraint use rate as function of law enforcement and other factors : preliminary analysis

Persistent use of safety restraints prevents deaths and reduces the severity and number of injuries resulting from motor vehicle crashes. However, safety-restraint use rates in the United States have been below those of other nations with safety-restraint enforcement laws. With a better understanding of the relationship between safety-restraint law enforcement and safety-restraint use, programs can be implemented to decrease the number of deaths and injuries resulting from motor vehicle crashes. Does safety-restraint use increase as enforcement increases? Do motorists increase their safety-restraint use in response to the general presence of law enforcement or to targeted law enforcement efforts? Does a relationship between enforcement and restraint use exist at the countywide level? A logistic regression model was estimated by using county-level safety-restraint use data and traffic citation statistics collected in 13 counties within the state of Florida in 1997. The model results suggest that safety-restraint use is positively correlated with enforcement intensity, is negatively correlated with safety-restraint enforcement coverage (in lanemiles of enforcement coverage), and is greater in urban than rural areas. The quantification of these relationships may assist Florida and other law enforcement agencies in raising safety-restraint use rates by allocating limited funds more efficiently either by allocating additional time for enforcement activities of the existing force or by increasing enforcement staff. In addition, the research supports a commonsense notion that enforcement activities do result in behavioral response.

Don't sell social science short

The News of the Week article that reports on Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) questioning the need to fund social science research at the National Science Foundation is alarming and shortsighted ("Senate panel chair asks why NSF funds social sciences," 12 May, p. 829). Social science research is at the fundamental core of basic research and has much to contribute to the economic viability of the United States. Twenty years of direct and jointly funded social and ecosystem science research at Colorado State University's Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory has produced deep insights into environmental and societal impacts of political upheaval, land use, and climate change in parts of Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Beyond greatly advancing our understanding of the coupled human-environmental system, the partnership of social and ecosystem science has brought scientists and decision-makers together to begin to develop solutions to difficult problems.