Flood fatalities in contemporary Australia (1997-2008) : disaster medicine

Objective: Flood is the most common natural disaster in Australia and causes more loss of life than any other disaster. This article describes the incidence and causes of deaths directly associated with floods in contemporary Australia. ---------- Methods: The present study compiled a database of flood fatalities in Australia in the period of 1997–2008 inclusive. The data were derived from newspapers and historic accounts, as well as government and scientific reports. Assembled data include the date and location of fatalities, age and gender of victims and the circumstances of the death. ---------- Results: At least 73 persons died as a direct result of floods in Australia in the period of 1997–2008. The largest number of fatalities occurred in New South Wales and Queensland. Most fatalities occurred during February, and among men (71.2%). People between the ages of 10 and 29 and those over 70 years are overrepresented among those drowned. There is no evident decline in the number of deaths over time. 48.5% fatalities related to motor vehicle use. 26.5% fatalities occurred as a result of inappropriate or high-risk behaviour during floods. ---------- Conclusion: In modern developed countries with adequate emergency response systems and extensive resources, deaths that occur in floods are almost all eminently preventable. Over 90% of the deaths are caused by attempts to ford flooded waterways or inappropriate situational conduct. Knowledge of the leading causes of flood fatalities should inform public awareness programmes and public safety police enforcement activities.

Interaction of natural survival instincts and internalized social norms exploring the Titanic and Lusitania disasters

To understand human behavior, it is important to know under what conditions people deviate from selfish rationality. This study explores the interaction of natural survival instincts and internalized social norms using data on the sinking of the Titanic and the Lusitania. We show that time pressure appears to be crucial when explaining behavior under extreme conditions of life and death. Even though the two vessels and the composition of their passengers were quite similar, the behavior of the individuals on board was dramatically different. On the Lusitania, selfish behavior dominated (which corresponds to the classical homo oeconomicus); on the Titanic, social norms and social status (class) dominated, which contradicts standard economics. This difference could be attributed to the fact that the Lusitania sank in 18 minutes, creating a situation in which the short-run flight impulse dominates behavior. On the slowly sinking Titanic (2 hours, 40 minutes), there was time for socially determined behavioral patterns to re-emerge. To our knowledge, this is the first time that these shipping disasters have been analyzed in a comparative manner with advanced statistical (econometric) techniques using individual data of the passengers and crew. Knowing human behavior under extreme conditions allows us to gain insights about how varied human behavior can be depending on differing external conditions.

In vitro characterization of natural and synthetic dermal matrices cultured with human dermal fibroblasts

The ideal dermal matrix should be able to provide the right biological and physical environment to ensure homogenous cell and extracellular matrix (ECM) distribution, as well as the right size and morphology of the neo-tissue required. Four natural and synthetic 3D matrices were evaluated in vitro as dermal matrices, namely (1) equine collagen foam, TissuFleece®, (2) acellular dermal replacement, Alloderm®, (3) knitted poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (10:90)–poly(-caprolactone) (PLGA–PCL) mesh, (4) chitosan scaffold. Human dermal fibroblasts were cultured on the specimens over 3 weeks. Cell morphology, distribution and viability were assessed by electron microscopy, histology and confocal laser microscopy. Metabolic activity and DNA synthesis were analysed via MTS metabolic assay and [3H]-thymidine uptake, while ECM protein expression was determined by immunohistochemistry. TissuFleece®, Alloderm® and PLGA–PCL mesh supported cell attachment, proliferation and neo-tissue formation. However, TissuFleece® contracted to 10% of the original size while Alloderm® supported cell proliferation predominantly on the surface of the material. PLGA–PCL mesh promoted more homogenous cell distribution and tissue formation. Chitosan scaffolds did not support cell attachment and proliferation. These results demonstrated that physical characteristics including porosity and mechanical stability to withstand cell contraction forces are important in determining the success of a dermal matrix material.

Regional changes in corneal thickness and shape with soft contact lenses

Purpose: To investigate the influence of soft contact lenses on regional variations in corneal thickness and shape while taking account of natural diurnal variations in these corneal parameters. Methods: Twelve young, healthy subjects wore 4 different types of soft contact lenses on 4 different days. The lenses were of two different materials (silicone hydrogel, hydrogel), designs (spherical, toric) and powers (–3.00, –7.00 D). Corneal thickness and topography measurements were taken before and after 8 hours of lens wear and on two days without lens wear, using the Pentacam HR system. Results: The hydrogel toric contact lens caused the greatest level of corneal thickening in the central (20.3 ± 10.0 microns) as well as peripheral cornea (24.1 ± 9.1 microns) (p < 0.001) with an obvious regional swelling of the cornea beneath the stabilizing zones. The anterior corneal surface generally showed slight flattening. All contact lenses resulted in central posterior corneal steepening and this was weakly correlated with central corneal swelling (p = 0.03) and peripheral corneal swelling (p = 0.01). Conclusions: There was an obvious regional corneal swelling apparent after wear of the hydrogel soft toric lenses, due to the location of the thicker stabilization zones of the toric lenses. However with the exception of the hydrogel toric lens, the magnitude of corneal swelling induced by the contact lenses over the 8 hours of wear was less than the natural diurnal thinning of the cornea over this same period.

Critical analysis of high particle number emissions from accelerating compressed natural gas buses

Compressed natural gas (CNG) engines are thought to be less harmful to the environment than conventional diesel engines, especially in terms of particle emissions. Although, this is true with respect to particulate matter (PM) emissions, results of particle number (PN) emission comparisons have been inconclusive. In this study, results of on-road and dynamometer studies of buses were used to derive several important conclusions. We show that, although PN emissions from CNG buses are significantly lower than from diesel buses at low engine power, they become comparable at high power. For diesel buses, PN emissions are not significantly different between acceleration and operation at steady maximum power. However, the corresponding PN emissions from CNG buses when accelerating are an order of magnitude greater than when operating at steady maximum power. During acceleration under heavy load, PN emissions from CNG buses are an order of magnitude higher than from diesel buses. The particles emitted from CNG buses are too small to contribute to PM10 emissions or contribute to a reduction of visibility, and may consist of semivolatile nanoparticles.

Carbon dioxide emissions from diesel and compressed natural gas buses during acceleration

Motor vehicle emission factors are generally derived from driving tests mimicking steady state conditions or transient drive cycles. However, neither of these test conditions completely represents real world driving conditions. In particular, they fail to determine emissions generated during the accelerating phase – a condition in which urban buses spend much of their time. In this study we analyse and compare the results of time-dependant emission measurements conducted on diesel and compressed natural gas (CNG) buses during an urban driving cycle on a chassis dynamometer and we derive power-law expressions relating carbon dioxide (CO2) emission factors to the instantaneous speed while accelerating from rest. Emissions during acceleration are compared with that during steady speed operation. These results have important implications for emission modelling particularly under congested traffic conditions.

Freeway traffic estimation in Beijing based on particle filter

Short-term traffic flow data is characterized by rapid and dramatic fluctuations. It reflects the nature of the frequent congestion in the lane, which shows a strong nonlinear feature. Traffic state estimation based on the data gained by electronic sensors is critical for much intelligent traffic management and the traffic control. In this paper, a solution to freeway traffic estimation in Beijing is proposed using a particle filter, based on macroscopic traffic flow model, which estimates both traffic density and speed.Particle filter is a nonlinear prediction method, which has obvious advantages for traffic flows prediction. However, with the increase of sampling period, the volatility of the traffic state curve will be much dramatic. Therefore, the prediction accuracy will be affected and difficulty of forecasting is raised. In this paper, particle filter model is applied to estimate the short-term traffic flow. Numerical study is conducted based on the Beijing freeway data with the sampling period of 2 min. The relatively high accuracy of the results indicates the superiority of the proposed model.

The feasibility of vibration analysis as a technique to detect osseointegration of transfemoral implants

One of the main causes of above knee or transfemoral amputation (TFA) in the developed world is trauma to the limb. The number of people undergoing TFA due to limb trauma, particularly due to war injuries, has been increasing. Typically the trauma amputee population, including war-related amputees, are otherwise healthy, active and desire to return to employment and their usual lifestyle. Consequently there is a growing need to restore long-term mobility and limb function to this population. Traditionally transfemoral amputees are provided with an artificial or prosthetic leg that consists of a fabricated socket, knee joint mechanism and a prosthetic foot. Amputees have reported several problems related to the socket of their prosthetic limb. These include pain in the residual limb, poor socket fit, discomfort and poor mobility. Removing the socket from the prosthetic limb could eliminate or reduce these problems. A solution to this is the direct attachment of the prosthesis to the residual bone (femur) inside the residual limb. This technique has been used on a small population of transfemoral amputees since 1990. A threaded titanium implant is screwed in to the shaft of the femur and a second component connects between the implant and the prosthesis. A period of time is required to allow the implant to become fully attached to the bone, called osseointegration (OI), and be able to withstand applied load; then the prosthesis can be attached. The advantages of transfemoral osseointegration (TFOI) over conventional prosthetic sockets include better hip mobility, sitting comfort and prosthetic retention and fewer skin problems on the residual limb. However, due to the length of time required for OI to progress and to complete the rehabilitation exercises, it can take up to twelve months after implant insertion for an amputee to be able to load bear and to walk unaided. The long rehabilitation time is a significant disadvantage of TFOI and may be impeding the wider adoption of the technique. There is a need for a non-invasive method of assessing the degree of osseointegration between the bone and the implant. If such a method was capable of determining the progression of TFOI and assessing when the implant was able to withstand physiological load it could reduce the overall rehabilitation time. Vibration analysis has been suggested as a potential technique: it is a non destructive method of assessing the dynamic properties of a structure. Changes in the physical properties of a structure can be identified from changes in its dynamic properties. Consequently vibration analysis, both experimental and computational, has been used to assess bone fracture healing, prosthetic hip loosening and dental implant OI with varying degrees of success. More recently experimental vibration analysis has been used in TFOI. However further work is needed to assess the potential of the technique and fully characterise the femur-implant system. The overall aim of this study was to develop physical and computational models of the TFOI femur-implant system and use these models to investigate the feasibility of vibration analysis to detect the process of OI. Femur-implant physical models were developed and manufactured using synthetic materials to represent four key stages of OI development (identified from a physiological model), simulated using different interface conditions between the implant and femur. Experimental vibration analysis (modal analysis) was then conducted using the physical models. The femur-implant models, representing stage one to stage four of OI development, were excited and the modal parameters obtained over the range 0-5kHz. The results indicated the technique had limited capability in distinguishing between different interface conditions. The fundamental bending mode did not alter with interfacial changes. However higher modes were able to track chronological changes in interface condition by the change in natural frequency, although no one modal parameter could uniquely distinguish between each interface condition. The importance of the model boundary condition (how the model is constrained) was the key finding; variations in the boundary condition altered the modal parameters obtained. Therefore the boundary conditions need to be held constant between tests in order for the detected modal parameter changes to be attributed to interface condition changes. A three dimensional Finite Element (FE) model of the femur-implant model was then developed and used to explore the sensitivity of the modal parameters to more subtle interfacial and boundary condition changes. The FE model was created using the synthetic femur geometry and an approximation of the implant geometry. The natural frequencies of the FE model were found to match the experimental frequencies within 20% and the FE and experimental mode shapes were similar. Therefore the FE model was shown to successfully capture the dynamic response of the physical system. As was found with the experimental modal analysis, the fundamental bending mode of the FE model did not alter due to changes in interface elastic modulus. Axial and torsional modes were identified by the FE model that were not detected experimentally; the torsional mode exhibited the largest frequency change due to interfacial changes (103% between the lower and upper limits of the interface modulus range). Therefore the FE model provided additional information on the dynamic response of the system and was complementary to the experimental model. The small changes in natural frequency over a large range of interface region elastic moduli indicated the method may only be able to distinguish between early and late OI progression. The boundary conditions applied to the FE model influenced the modal parameters to a far greater extent than the interface condition variations. Therefore the FE model, as well as the experimental modal analysis, indicated that the boundary conditions need to be held constant between tests in order for the detected changes in modal parameters to be attributed to interface condition changes alone. The results of this study suggest that in a clinical setting it is unlikely that the in vivo boundary conditions of the amputated femur could be adequately controlled or replicated over time and consequently it is unlikely that any longitudinal change in frequency detected by the modal analysis technique could be attributed exclusively to changes at the femur-implant interface. Therefore further development of the modal analysis technique would require significant consideration of the clinical boundary conditions and investigation of modes other than the bending modes.

Population-based survival estimates for childhood cancer in Australia during the period 1997–2006

Background: This study provides the latest available relative survival data for Australian childhood cancer patients. Methods: Data from the population-based Australian Paediatric Cancer Registry were used to describe relative survival outcomes using the period method for 11 903 children diagnosed with cancer between 1983 and 2006 and prevalent at any time between 1997 and 2006. Results: The overall relative survival was 90.4% after 1 year, 79.5% after 5 years and 74.7% after 20 years. Where information onstage at diagnosis was available (lymphomas, neuroblastoma, renal tumours and rhabdomyosarcomas), survival was significantly poorer for more-advanced stage. Survival was lower among infants compared with other children for those diagnosed with leukaemia, tumours of the central nervous system and renal tumours but higher for neuroblastoma. Recent improvements in overall childhood cancer survival over time are mainly because of improvements among leukaemia patients. Conclusion: The high and improving survival prognosis for children diagnosed with cancer in Australia is consistent with various international estimates. However, a 5-year survival estimate of 79% still means that many children who are diagnosed with cancer will die within 5 years, whereas others have long-term health morbidities and complications associated with their treatments. It is hoped that continued developments in treatment protocols will result in further improvements in survival.

Shock control bump design optimization on Natural Laminar Aerofoil

The chapter investigates Shock Control Bumps (SCB) on a Natural Laminar Flow (NLF) aerofoil; RAE 5243 for Active Flow Control (AFC). A SCB approach is used to decelerate supersonic flow on the suction/pressure sides of transonic aerofoil that leads delaying shock occurrence or weakening of shock strength. Such an AFC technique reduces significantly the total drag at transonic speeds. This chapter considers the SCB shape design optimisation at two boundary layer transition positions (0 and 45%) using an Euler software coupled with viscous boundary layer effects and robust Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs). The optimisation method is based on a canonical Evolution Strategy (ES) algorithm and incorporates the concepts of hierarchical topology and parallel asynchronous evaluation of candidate solution. Two test cases are considered with numerical experiments; the first test deals with a transition point occurring at the leading edge and the transition point is fixed at 45% of wing chord in the second test. Numerical results are presented and it is demonstrated that an optimal SCB design can be found to significantly reduce transonic wave drag and improves lift on drag (L/D) value when compared to the baseline aerofoil design.

Comparison of Nucleotide Sequences between Northern and Southern Philippine Isolates of Rice Grassy Stunt Virus Indicates Occurrence of Natural Genetic Reassortment

Rice grassy stunt virus is a member of the genus Tenuivirus, is persistently transmitted by a brown planthopper, and has occurred in rice plants in South, Southeast, and East Asia (similar to North and South America). We determined the complete nucleotide (nt) sequences of RNAs 1 (9760 nt), 2 (4069 nt), 3 (3127 nt), 4 (2909 nt), 5 (2704 nt), and 6 (2590 nt) of a southern Philippine isolate from South Cotabato and compared them with those of a northern Philippine isolate from Laguna (Toriyama et al., 1997, 1998). The numbers of nucleotides in the terminal untranslated regions and open reading frames were identical between the two isolates except for the 5′ untranslated region of the complementary strand of RNA 4. Overall nucleotide differences between the two isolates were only 0.08% in RNA 1, 0.58% in RNA 4, and 0.26% in RNA 5, whereas they were 2.19% in RNA 2, 8.38% in RNA 3, and 3.63% in RNA 6. In the intergenic regions, the two isolates differed by 9.12% in RNA 2, 11.6% in RNA 3, and 6.86% in RNA 6 with multiple consecutive nucleotide deletion/insertions, whereas they differed by only 0.78% in RNA 4 and 0.34% in RNA 5. The nucleotide variation in the intergenic region of RNA 6 within the South Cotabato isolate was only 0.33%. These differences in accumulation of mutations among individual RNA segments indicate that there was genetic reassortment in the two geographical isolates; RNAs 1, 4, and 5 of the two isolates came from a common ancestor, whereas RNAs 2, 3, and 6 were from two different ancestors.