Voter behaviour and constitutional change in Australia since 1967

Australian Constitutional referendums have been part of the Australian political system since federation. Up to the year 1999 (the time of the last referendum in Australia), constitutional change in Australia does not have a good history of acceptance. Since 1901, there have been 44 proposed constitutional changes with eight gaining the required acceptance according to section 128 of the Australian Constitution. In the modern era since 1967, there have been 20 proposals over seven referendum votes for a total of four changes. Over this same period, there have been 13 federal general elections which have realised change in government just five times. This research examines the electoral behaviour of Australian voters from 1967 to 1999 for each referendum. Party identification has long been a key indicator in general election voting. This research considers whether the dominant theory of voter behaviour in general elections (the Michigan Model) provides a plausible explanation for voting in Australian referendums. In order to explain electoral behaviour in each referendum, this research has utilised available data from the Australian Electoral Commission, the 1996 Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data, and the 1999 Australian Constitutional Referendum Study. This data has provided the necessary variables required to measure the impact of the Michigan Model of voter behaviour. Measurements have been conducted using bivariate and multivariate analyses. Each referendum provides an overview of the events at the time of the referendum as well as the =yes‘ and =no‘ cases at the time each referendum was initiated. Results from this research provide support for the Michigan Model of voter behaviour in Australian referendum voting. This research concludes that party identification, as a key variable of the Michigan Model, shows that voters continue to take their cues for voting from the political party they identify with in Australian referendums. However, the outcome of Australian referendums clearly shows that partisanship is only one of a number of contributory factors in constitutional referendums.

Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Excess deaths during the 2004 heatwave in Brisbane, Australia

The paper examines whether there was an excess of deaths and the relative role of temperature and ozone in a heatwave during 7–26 February 2004 in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city accustomed to warm weather. The data on daily counts of deaths from cardiovascular disease and non-external causes, meteorological conditions, and air pollution in Brisbane from 1 January 2001 to 31 October 2004 were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Queensland Environmental Protection Agency, respectively. The relationship between temperature and mortality was analysed using a Poisson time series regression model with smoothing splines to control for nonlinear effects of confounding factors. The highest temperature recorded in the 2004 heatwave was 42°C compared with the highest recorded temperature of 34°C during the same periods of 2001–2003. There was a significant relationship between exposure to heat and excess deaths in the 2004 heatwave estimated increase in non-external deaths: 75 [(95% confidence interval, CI: 11–138; cardiovascular deaths: 41 (95% CI: −2 to 84)]. There was no apparent evidence of substantial short-term mortality displacement. The excess deaths were mainly attributed to temperature but exposure to ozone also contributed to these deaths.

Diagnostic and treatment pathways for men with prostate cancer in Queensland : investigating spatial and demographic inequalities

Background: Patterns of diagnosis and management for men diagnosed with prostate cancer in Queensland, Australia, have not yet been systematically documented and so assumptions of equity are untested. This longitudinal study investigates the association between prostate cancer diagnostic and treatment outcomes and key area-level characteristics and individual-level demographic, clinical and psychosocial factors.---------- Methods/Design: A total of 1064 men diagnosed with prostate cancer between February 2005 and July 2007 were recruited through hospital-based urology outpatient clinics and private practices in the centres of Brisbane, Townsville and Mackay (82% of those referred). Additional clinical and diagnostic information for all 6609 men diagnosed with prostate cancer in Queensland during the study period was obtained via the population-based Queensland Cancer Registry. Respondent data are collected using telephone and self-administered questionnaires at pre-treatment and at 2 months, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months, 36 months, 48 months and 60 months post-treatment. Assessments include demographics, medical history, patterns of care, disease and treatment characteristics together with outcomes associated with prostate cancer, as well as information about quality of life and psychological adjustment. Complementary detailed treatment information is abstracted from participants’ medical records held in hospitals and private treatment facilities and collated with health service utilisation data obtained from Medicare Australia. Information about the characteristics of geographical areas is being obtained from data custodians such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Geo-coding and spatial technology will be used to calculate road travel distances from patients’ residences to treatment centres. Analyses will be conducted using standard statistical methods along with multilevel regression models including individual and area-level components.---------- Conclusions: Information about the diagnostic and treatment patterns of men diagnosed with prostate cancer is crucial for rational planning and development of health delivery and supportive care services to ensure equitable access to health services, regardless of geographical location and individual characteristics. This study is a secondary outcome of the randomised controlled trial registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12607000233426)

Estimating the latent demand for rail transit : a case study in Perth, Western Australia

This paper presents a study on estimating the latent demand for rail transit in Australian context. Based on travel mode-choice modelling, a two-stage analysis approach is proposed, namely market population identification and mode share estimation. A case study is conducted on Midland-Fremantle rail transit corridor in Perth, Western Australia. The required data mainly include journey-to-work trip data from Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2006 and work-purpose mode-choice model in Perth Strategic Transport Evaluation Model. The market profile is analysed, such as catchment areas, market population, mode shares, mode specific trip distributions and average trip distances. A numerical simulation is performed to test the sensitivity of the transit ridership to the change of fuel price. A corridor-level transit demand function of fuel price is thus obtained and its characteristics of elasticity are discussed. This study explores a viable approach to developing a decision-support tool for the assessment of short-term impacts of policy and operational adjustments on corridor-level demand for rail transit.

Improving information security management in nonprofit organisations

All organisations, irrespective of size and type, need effective information security management (ISM) practices to protect vital organisational in- formation assets. However, little is known about the information security management practices of nonprofit organisations. Australian nonprofit organisations (NPOs) employed 889,900 people, managed 4.6 million volunteers and contributed $40,959 million to the economy during 2006-2007 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2009). This thesis describes the perceptions of information security management in two Australian NPOs and examines the appropriateness of the ISO 27002 information security management standard in an NPO context. The overall approach to the research is interpretive. A collective case study has been performed, consisting of two instrumental case studies with the researcher being embedded within two NPOs for extended periods of time. Data gathering and analysis was informed by grounded theory and action research, and the Technology Acceptance Model was utilised as a lens to explore the findings and provide limited generalisability to other contexts. The major findings include a distinct lack of information security management best practice in both organisations. ISM Governance and risk management was lacking and ISM policy was either outdated or non- existent. While some user focused ISM practices were evident, reference to standards, such as ISO 27002, were absent. The main factor that negatively impacted on ISM practices was the lack of resources available for ISM in the NPOs studied. Two novel aspects of information security dis- covered in this research were the importance of accuracy and consistency of information. The contribution of this research is a preliminary understanding of ISM practices and perceptions in NPOs. Recommendations for a new approach to managing information security management in nonprofit organisations have been proposed.

Emergency health services : demand and service delivery models. Monograph 1: literature review and activity trends

Emergency Health Services (EHS), encompassing hospital-based Emergency Departments (ED) and pre-hospital ambulance services, are a significant and high profile component of Australia’s health care system and congestion of these, evidenced by physical overcrowding and prolonged waiting times, is causing considerable community and professional concern. This concern relates not only to Australia’s capacity to manage daily health emergencies but also the ability to respond to major incidents and disasters. EHS congestion is a result of the combined effects of increased demand for emergency care, increased complexity of acute health care, and blocked access to ongoing care (e.g. inpatient beds). Despite this conceptual understanding there is a lack of robust evidence to explain the factors driving increased demand, or how demand contributes to congestion, and therefore public policy responses have relied upon limited or unsound information. The Emergency Health Services Queensland (EHSQ) research program proposes to determine the factors influencing the growing demand for emergency health care and to establish options for alternative service provision that may safely meet patient’s needs. The EHSQ study is funded by the Australian Research Council (ARC) through its Linkage Program and is supported financially by the Queensland Ambulance Service (QAS). This monograph is part of a suite of publications based on the research findings that examines the existing literature, and current operational context. Literature was sourced using standard search approaches and a range of databases as well as a selection of articles cited in the reviewed literature. Public sources including the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW), the Council of Ambulance Authorities (CAA) Annual Reports, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and Department of Health and Ageing (DoHA) were examined for trend data across Australia.

Cultural factors affecting tertiary education access for Bundjalung men

Despite documented changes to mainstream educational systems, Indigenous educational achievements are still at critically low levels across all phases of formal education. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (2011) Indigenous students are still less likely than non-Indigenous students to complete their final years of schooling (45% compared with 77% in 2009); tertiary level entry and outcomes are also significantly lower than non-Indigenous entry and outcomes. Although significant research has focused on the area of Indigenous education, in particular, identifying and making recommendations on how to close educational gaps between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people, these studies have failed to bring about the change needed and to engage successfully with Indigenous communities and draw on Indigenous communities’ insights for best practice. This thesis focuses on Indigenous perspectives and takes a closer look at the cultural factors that impact on tertiary education access for Indigenous young men who come from a Bundjalung community on the far north coast of northern New South Wales. To date, this community has not been the focus of serious postgraduate study. Their experiences and the values and ideas of their community have not been investigated. To do this, the study uses an Indigenous methodological framework. It draws on Indigenous Standpoint Theory to analyse data through concepts of the cultural interface and tensions (Nakata, 2007, pp. 195-217). The study’s framing also draws on decolonising methods (Porsanger, 2004; Smith, 1999) and Indigenist research methods (Rigney, 1997). Such methodologies are intended to benefit both the research participants (community members) and the researcher. In doing so, the study draws on Creswell’s (2008) methods of restorying and retelling to analyse the participants’ interviews and yarns about their lives and experiences relating to tertiary educational access. The research process occurred in multiple stages: (1) selection of research sites, (2) granting of access which was requested through consultation with local Aboriginal Elders and through the local Aboriginal Lands Council, (3) conducting of interviews with participants/ data collection, (4) analysis of data, (5) documentation of findings, (6) theory development, and (7) reporting back to the nominated Indigenous community on the progress and findings of the research. The benefits of this research are numerous. First, this study addresses an issue that has been identified from within the local Aboriginal community as an issue of high precedence, looking at the cultural factors surrounding the underrepresentation of Indigenous people accessing tertiary education. This is not only of local significance but has been identified in the literature as a local, national and international area of concern amongst Indigenous peoples (Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2009; Herbert, 2010; King, 2011). Secondly, the study draws on local Indigenous knowledges and learning processes from within a Bundjalung community to gain inside perspectives, namely the cultural factors that are being expressed from a range of Indigenous community members – young men, community Elders and community members – and finding out what they perceive inhibit and/or promote tertiary education participation within their community. Such perspectives are rarely heard. Finally, recommendations made from this study are aimed at revealing investigative styles that may be utilised by Western institutions to improve access for Indigenous young men living in the Narlumdarlum1 region in the tertiary context.

Can slide positivity rates predict malaria transmission?

Background: Malaria is a significant threat to population health in the border areas of Yunnan Province, China. How to accurately measure malaria transmission is an important issue. This study aimed to examine the role of slide positivity rates (SPR) in malaria transmission in Mengla County, Yunnan Province, China. Methods: Data on annual malaria cases, SPR and socio-economic factors for the period of 1993 to 2008 were obtained from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Bureau of Statistics, Mengla, China. Multiple linear regression models were conducted to evaluate the relationship between socio-ecologic factors and malaria incidence. Results: The results show that SPR was significantly positively associated with the malaria incidence rates. The SPR (beta = 1.244, p = 0.000) alone and combination (SPR, beta = 1.326, p < 0.001) with other predictors can explain about 85% and 95% of variation in malaria transmission, respectively. Every 1% increase in SPR corresponded to an increase of 1.76/100,000 in malaria incidence rates. Conclusion: SPR is a strong predictor of malaria transmission, and can be used to improve the planning and implementation of malaria elimination programmes in Mengla and other similar locations. SPR might also be a useful indicator of malaria early warning systems in China.

A model for enhancing assessment and teaching practice at the coalface : Insights from a Fellow-In-Residence engagement program

Australian universities are currently engaging with new governmental policies and regulations that require them to demonstrate enhanced quality and accountability in teaching and research. The development of national academic standards for learning outcomes in higher education is one such instance of this drive for excellence. These discipline-specific standards articulate the minimum, or Threshold Learning Outcomes, to be addressed by higher education institutions so that graduating students can demonstrate their achievement to their institutions, accreditation agencies, and industry recruiters. This impacts not only on the design of Engineering courses (with particular emphasis on pedagogy and assessment), but also on the preparation of academics to engage with these standards and implement them in their day-to-day teaching practice on a micro level. This imperative for enhanced quality and accountability in teaching is also significant at a meso level, for according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, about 25 per cent of teachers in Australian universities are aged 55 and above and more than 54 per cent are aged 45 and above (ABS, 2006). A number of institutions have undertaken recruitment drives to regenerate and enrich their academic workforce by appointing capacity-building research professors and increasing the numbers of early- and mid-career academics. This nationally driven agenda for quality and accountability in teaching permeates also the micro level of engineering education, since the demand for enhanced academic standards and learning outcomes requires both a strong advocacy for a shift to an authentic, collaborative, outcomes-focused education and the mechanisms to support academics in transforming their professional thinking and practice. Outcomes-focused education means giving greater attention to the ways in which the curriculum design, pedagogy, assessment approaches and teaching activities can most effectively make a positive, verifiable difference to students’ learning. Such education is authentic when it is couched firmly in the realities of learning environments, student and academic staff characteristics, and trustworthy educational research. That education will be richer and more efficient when staff works collaboratively, contributing their knowledge, experience and skills to achieve learning outcomes based on agreed objectives. We know that the school or departmental levels of universities are the most effective loci of changes in approaches to teaching and learning practices in higher education (Knight & Trowler, 2000). Heads of Schools are being increasingly entrusted with more responsibilities - in addition to setting strategic directions and managing the operational and sometimes financial aspects of their school, they are also expected to lead the development and delivery of the teaching, research and other academic activities. Guiding and mentoring individuals and groups of academics is one critical aspect of the Head of School’s role. Yet they do not always have the resources or support to help them mentor staff, especially the more junior academics. In summary, the international trend in undergraduate engineering course accreditation towards the demonstration of attainment of graduate attributes poses new challenges in addressing academic staff development needs and the assessment of learning. This paper will give some insights into the conceptual design, implementation and empirical effectiveness to date, of a Fellow-In-Residence Engagement (FIRE) program. The program is proposed as a model for achieving better engagement of academics with contemporary issues and effectively enhancing their teaching and assessment practices. It will also report on the program’s collaborative approach to working with Heads of Schools to better support academics, especially early-career ones, by utilizing formal and informal mentoring. Further, the paper will discuss possible factors that may assist the achievement of the intended outcomes of such a model, and will examine its contributions to engendering an outcomes-focussed thinking in engineering education.

Smart grid-demand side response model to mitigate prices and peak impact on the electrical system

The aims of this project is to develop demand side response model which assists electricity consumers who are exposed to the market price through aggregator to manage the air-conditioning peak electricity demand. The main contribution of this research is to show how consumers can optimise the energy cost caused by the air-conditioning load considering the electricity market price and network overload. The model is tested with selected characteristics of the room, Queensland electricity market data from Australian Energy Market Operator and data from the Bureau of Statistics on temperatures in Brisbane, during weekdays on hot days from 2011 - 2012.

Queensland diabetic foot hospitalisations (2005-10) : in what state is our foot hospital problem?

Background Diabetes foot complications are a leading cause of overall avoidable hospital admissions. Since 2006, the Queensland Diabetes Clinical Network has implemented programs aimed at reducing diabetes-related hospitalisation. The aim of this retrospective observational study was to determine the incidence of diabetes foot-related hospital admissions in Queensland from 2005 to 2010. Methods Data on all primary diabetes foot-related admissions in Queensland from 2005-2010 was obtained using diabetes foot-related ICD-10-AM (hospital discharge) codes. Queensland diabetes foot-related admission incidences were calculated using general population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Furthermore, diabetes foot-related sub-group admissions were analysed. Chi-squared tests were used to assess changes in admissions over time. Results Overall, 24,917 diabetes foot-related admissions occurred, resulting in the use of 260,085 bed days or 1.4% of all available Queensland hospital bed days (18,352,152). The primary reasons for these admissions were foot ulcers (49.8%), cellulitis (20.7%), peripheral vascular disease (17.8%) and osteomyelitis (3.8%). The diabetes foot-related admission incidence among the general population (per 100,000) reduced by 22% (103.0 in 2005, to 80.7 in 2010, p < 0.001); bed days decreased by 18% (1,099 to 904, p < 0.001). Conclusion Diabetes foot complications appear to be the primary reason for 1.4 out of every 100 hospital beds used in Queensland. There has been a significant reduction in the incidence of diabetes foot-related admissions in Queensland between 2005 and 2010. This decrease has coincided with a corresponding decrease in amputations and the implementation of several diabetes foot clinical programs throughout Queensland.

Imported Dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous Dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia

BACKGROUND Dengue fever (DF) outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDS Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas), and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR):1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-2.28), monthly minimum temperature ((o)C) (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77-2.93), monthly relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37), monthly rainfall (mm) (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81) and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50). In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01-2.67). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.

Teacher education for high-poverty schools : keeping the bar high

For some time now, there has been a focus, both in Australia and internationally, on quality teaching as a fundamental component that affects the educational outcomes of all students. The question of how teacher education programs in Australia prepare effective teachers to work across all school settings-including low-SES schools-has been elevated to national prominence by data from the 20 12 Programme for International Student Assessment (PIS A), which revealed a fall in Australian students' world ranking across Mathematics, Reading and Science. Education is commonly acknowledged as a "foundation capability" that improves a person's life chances, including employment prospects, and it is widely understood to be a "route out of disadvantage" (McLachlan, Gilfillan, and Gordon 20 13). The Australian Bureau of Statistics 201 1- 12 data suggest that around 2.6 million (11.8%) Australians currently live under the poverty line (Phillips et a!. 2012, 8). According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), despite the significant effects teachers have on student performance, disadvantaged schools are not always staffed with the highest quality teachers (see Darling-Hammond, 2006).

Socio-environmental drivers and suicide in Australia: Bayesian spatial analysis

Background The impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide has been examined in many studies. Few of them, however, have explored these associations from a spatial perspective, especially in assessing the association between meteorological factors and suicide. This study examined the association of meteorological and socio-demographic factors with suicide across small areas over different time periods. Methods Suicide, population and socio-demographic data (e.g., population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (ATSI), and unemployment rate (UNE) at the Local Government Area (LGA) level were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period of 1986 to 2005. Information on meteorological factors (rainfall, temperature and humidity) was supplied by Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Model was applied to explore the association of socio-demographic and meteorological factors with suicide across LGAs. Results In Model I (socio-demographic factors), proportion of ATSI and UNE were positively associated with suicide from 1996 to 2000 (Relative Risk (RR)ATSI = 1.0107, 95% Credible Interval (CI): 1.0062-1.0151; RRUNE = 1.0187, 95% CI: 1.0060-1.0315), and from 2001 to 2005 (RRATSI = 1.0126, 95% CI: 1.0076-1.0176; RRUNE = 1.0198, 95% CI: 1.0041-1.0354). Socio-Economic Index for Area (SEIFA) and IND, however, had negative associations with suicide between 1986 and 1990 (RRSEIFA = 0.9983, 95% CI: 0.9971-0.9995; RRATSI = 0.9914, 95% CI: 0.9848-0.9980). Model II (meteorological factors): a 1°C higher yearly mean temperature across LGAs increased the suicide rate by an average by 2.27% (95% CI: 0.73%, 3.82%) in 1996–2000, and 3.24% (95% CI: 1.26%, 5.21%) in 2001–2005. The associations between socio-demographic factors and suicide in Model III (socio-demographic and meteorological factors) were similar to those in Model I; but, there is no substantive association between climate and suicide in Model III. Conclusions Proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, unemployment and temperature appeared to be statistically associated with of suicide incidence across LGAs among all selected variables, especially in recent years. The results indicated that socio-demographic factors played more important roles than meteorological factors in the spatial pattern of suicide incidence.