Regional versus urban differences in teenage alcohol use: Does parental disapproval account for these differences?

- Objective To investigate if parental disapproval of alcohol use accounts for differences in adolescent alcohol use across regional and urban communities. - Design Secondary data analysis of grade-level stratified data from a random sample of schools. - Setting High schools in Victoria, Australia. - Participants A random sample of 10273 adolescents from Grade 7 (mean age=12.51 years), 9 (14.46 years) and 11 (16.42 years). - Main outcome measures The key independent variables were parental disapproval of adolescent alcohol use and regionality (regional/ urban), and the dependent variable was past 30 days alcohol use. - Results After adjusting for potential confounders, adolescents in regional areas were more likely to use alcohol in the past 30 days (OR=1.83, 1.44 and 1.37 for Grades 7, 9 and 11, respectively, P<0.05), and their parents have a lower level of disapproval of their alcohol use (b=-0.12, -0.15 and -0.19 for Grades 7, 9 and 11, respectively, P<0.001). Bootstrapping analyses suggested that 8.37%, 23.30% and 39.22% of the effect of regionality on adolescent alcohol use was mediated by parental disapproval of alcohol use for Grades 7, 9 and 11 participants respectively (P<0.05). - Conclusions Adolescents in urban areas had a lower risk of alcohol use compared with their regional counterparts, and differences in parental disapproval of alcohol use contributed to this difference.

A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

This paper introduces the smooth transition logit (STL) model that is designed to detect and model situations in which there is structural change in the behaviour underlying the latent index from which the binary dependent variable is constructed. The maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants' behaviour to change gradually over time. The main results provide clear evidence in support of a structural change in the nature of price events, and the endogenously determined timing of the change is consistent with the process of deregulation in Queensland.

Adherence to insulin treatment in diabetes: Can it be improved?

Insulin is used in all subjects with Type 1 diabetes, and when Type 2 diabetes is not controlled by oral anti-diabetic medicines, insulin is also used in Type 2 diabetes. However, despite this use, there is still increased mortality and morbidity in subjects with diabetes, compared to subjects without diabetes. One of the factors, which may be involved in this increased mortality and morbidity in subjects with diabetes, is nonadherence to insulin. Nonadherence rates to insulin are in the range20-38%, and many factors contribute to the nonadherence. The major aim of the review was to determine whether interventions to improve adherence to insulin do actually improve adherence to insulin. Most studies have shown that adherence to insulin was improved by changing from the vial-and-syringe approach to prefilled insulin pens, but not all studies have shown that this translated into better glycemic control and clinical outcomes. The results of studies using automatic telephone messages to improve adherence to insulin to date are inconclusive. There is limited and variable evidence that an intervention by a nurse/educator, which discusses adherence to medicines, does improve adherence to insulin. In contrast, there is little or no evidence that an extra intervention by a doctor or an intervention by a pharmacist, which discusses adherence to insulin, does actually improve the measured adherence to insulin. In conclusion, rather than assuming that an intervention by a health professional discussing adherence to insulin actually improves adherence to insulin, long-term studies investigating this are required.

Is there a role for pharmacists in multidisciplinary health-care teams at community outreach events for the homeless?

Homelessness is a significant public health problem. It is well-documented that people experiencing homelessness exhibit more serious illnesses and have poorer health than the general population. The provision of services and interventions by health-care professionals, including pharmacists, may make a simple yet important contribution to improved health outcomes in those experiencing homelessness, but evidence of roles and interventions is limited and variable. In Australia, the Queensland University of Technology Health Clinic connects with the homeless community by taking part in community outreach events. This paper provides details of one such event, as well as the roles, interventions and experiences of pharmacists. Participation and inclusion of pharmacists in a multidisciplinary health-care team approach at homeless outreach events should be supported and encouraged.

Corrected mean-field models for spatially-dependent advection-diffusion-reaction phenomena

In the exclusion-process literature, mean-field models are often derived by assuming that the occupancy status of lattice sites is independent. Although this assumption is questionable, it is the foundation of many mean-field models. In this work we develop methods to relax the independence assumption for a range of discrete exclusion process-based mechanisms motivated by applications from cell biology. Previous investigations that focussed on relaxing the independence assumption have been limited to studying initially-uniform populations and ignored any spatial variations. By ignoring spatial variations these previous studies were greatly simplified due to translational invariance of the lattice. These previous corrected mean-field models could not be applied to many important problems in cell biology such as invasion waves of cells that are characterised by moving fronts. Here we propose generalised methods that relax the independence assumption for spatially inhomogeneous problems, leading to corrected mean-field descriptions of a range of exclusion process-based models that incorporate (i) unbiased motility, (ii) biased motility, and (iii) unbiased motility with agent birth and death processes. The corrected mean-field models derived here are applicable to spatially variable processes including invasion wave type problems. We show that there can be large deviations between simulation data and traditional mean-field models based on invoking the independence assumption. Furthermore, we show that the corrected mean-field models give an improved match to the simulation data in all cases considered.

Predicting behaviour to reduce stroke risk in at-risk populations : the role of beliefs

Aims: Changing behaviour to reduce stroke risk is a difficult prospect made particularly complex because of psychological factors. This study examined predictors of intentions and behaviours to reduce stroke risk in a sample of at-risk individuals, seeking to find how knowledge and health beliefs influenced both intention and actual behaviour to reduce stroke risk. Methods: A repeated measures design was used to assess behavioural intentions at time 1 (T1) and subsequent behaviour (T2). One hundred and twenty six respondents completed an online survey at T1, and behavioural follow-up data were collected from approximately 70 participants 1 month later. Predictors were stroke knowledge, demographic variables, and beliefs about stroke that were derived from an expanded health belief model. Dependent measures were: exercise and weight loss, and intention to engage in these behaviours to reduce stroke risk. Findings: Multiple hierarchical regression analyses showed that, for exercise and weight loss respectively, different health beliefs predicted intention to control stroke risk. The most important exercise-related health beliefs were benefits, susceptibility, and self-efficacy; for weight loss, the most important beliefs were barriers, and to a lesser degree, susceptibility and subjective norm. Conclusions: Health beliefs may play an important role in stroke prevention, particularly beliefs about susceptibility because these emerged for both behaviours. Stroke education and prevention programmes that selectively target the health beliefs relevant to specific behaviours may prove most efficacious.

Elicitator : an expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology

Expert elicitation is the process of retrieving and quantifying expert knowledge in a particular domain. Such information is of particular value when the empirical data is expensive, limited, or unreliable. This paper describes a new software tool, called Elicitator, which assists in quantifying expert knowledge in a form suitable for use as a prior model in Bayesian regression. Potential environmental domains for applying this elicitation tool include habitat modeling, assessing detectability or eradication, ecological condition assessments, risk analysis, and quantifying inputs to complex models of ecological processes. The tool has been developed to be user-friendly, extensible, and facilitate consistent and repeatable elicitation of expert knowledge across these various domains. We demonstrate its application to elicitation for logistic regression in a geographically based ecological context. The underlying statistical methodology is also novel, utilizing an indirect elicitation approach to target expert knowledge on a case-by-case basis. For several elicitation sites (or cases), experts are asked simply to quantify their estimated ecological response (e.g. probability of presence), and its range of plausible values, after inspecting (habitat) covariates via GIS.

Glycaemic load is associated with insulin resistance in older Australian women

Background: Diets with a high postprandial glycemic response may contribute to long-term development of insulin resistance and diabetes, however previous epidemiological studies are conflicting on whether glycemic index (GI) or glycemic load (GL) are dietary factors associated with the progression. Our objectives were to estimate GI and GL in a group of older women, and evaluate cross-sectional associations with insulin resistance. Subjects and Methods: Subjects were 329 Australian women aged 42-81 years participating in year three of the Longitudinal Assessment of Ageing in Women (LAW). Dietary intakes were assessed by diet history interviews and analysed using a customised GI database. Insulin resistance was defined as a homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) value of >3.99, based on fasting blood glucose and insulin concentrations. Results: GL was significantly higher in the 26 subjects who were classified as insulin resistant compared to subjects who were not (134±33 versus 114±24, P<0.001). In a logistic regression model, an increment of 15 GL units increased the odds of insulin resistance by 2.09 (95%CI 1.55, 2.80, P<0.001) independently of potential confounding variables. No significant associations were found when insulin resistance was assessed as a continuous variable. Conclusions: Results of this cross-sectional study support the concept that diets with a higher GL are associated with increased risk of insulin resistance. Further studies are required to investigate whether reducing glycemic intake, by either consuming lower GI foods and/or smaller serves of carbohydrate, can contribute to a reduction in development of insulin resistance and long-term risk of type 2 diabetes.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

What are students' understandings of how digital tools contribute to learning in design disciplines?

Building Information Modelling (BIM) is evolving in the Construction Industry as a successor to CAD. CAD is mostly a technical tool that conforms to existing industry practices, however BIM has the capacity to revolutionise industry practice. Rather than producing representations of design intent, BIM produces an exact Virtual Prototype of any building that in an ideal situation is centrally stored and freely exchanged between the project team, facilitating collaboration and allowing experimentation in design. Exposing design students to this technology through their formal studies allows them to engage with cutting edge industry practices and to help shape the industry upon their graduation. Since this technology is relatively new to the construction industry, there are no accepted models for how to “teach” BIM effectively at university level. Developing learning models to enable students to make the most out of their learning with BIM presents significant challenges to those teaching in the field of design. To date there are also no studies of students experiences of using this technology. This research reports on the introduction of Building Information Modeling (BIM) software into a second year Bachelor of Design course. This software has the potential to change industry standards through its ability to revolutionise the work practices of those involved in large scale design projects. Students’ understandings and experiences of using the software in order to complete design projects as part of their assessment are reported here. In depth semi-structured interviews with 6 students revealed that students had views that ranged from novice to sophisticate about the software. They had variations in understanding of how the software could be used to complete course requirements, to assist with the design process and in the workplace. They had engaged in limited exploration of the collaborative potential of the software as a design tool. Their understanding of the significance of BIM for the workplace was also variable. The results indicate that students are beginning to develop an appreciation for how BIM could aid or constrain the work of designers, but that this appreciation is highly varied and likely to be dependent on the students’ previous experiences of working in a design studio environment. Their range of understandings of the significance of the technology is a reflection of their level of development as designers (they are “novice” designers). The results also indicate that there is a need for subjects in later years of the course that allow students to specialise in the area of digital design and to develop more sophisticated views of the role of technology in the design process. There is also a need to capitalise on the collaborative potential inherent in the software in order to realise its capability to streamline some aspects of the design process. As students become more sophisticated designers we should explore their understanding of the role of technology as a design tool in more depth in order to make recommendations for improvements to teaching and learning practice related to BIM and other digital design tools.

Infrastructure sustainability : differential axial shortening of concrete structures

High density development has been seen as a contribution to sustainable development. However, a number of engineering issues play a crucial role in the sustainable construction of high rise buildings. Non linear deformation of concrete has an adverse impact on high-rise buildings with complex geometries, due to differential axial shortening. These adverse effects are caused by time dependent behaviour resulting in volume change known as ‘shrinkage’, ‘creep’ and ‘elastic’ deformation. These three phenomena govern the behaviour and performance of all concrete elements, during and after construction. Reinforcement content, variable concrete modulus, volume to surface area ratio of the elements, environmental conditions, and construction quality and sequence influence on the performance of concrete elements and differential axial shortening will occur in all structural systems. Its detrimental effects escalate with increasing height and non vertical load paths resulting from geometric complexity. The magnitude of these effects has a significant impact on building envelopes, building services, secondary systems, and lifetime serviceability and performance. Analytical and test procedures available to quantify the magnitude of these effects are limited to a very few parameters and are not adequately rigorous to capture the complexity of true time dependent material response. With this in mind, a research project has been undertaken to develop an accurate numerical procedure to quantify the differential axial shortening of structural elements. The procedure has been successfully applied to quantify the differential axial shortening of a high rise building, and the important capabilities available in the procedure have been discussed. A new practical concept, based on the variation of vibration characteristic of structure during and after construction and used to quantify the axial shortening and assess the performance of structure, is presented.

Latent variable models in statistical genetics

Understanding the complexities that are involved in the genetics of multifactorial diseases is still a monumental task. In addition to environmental factors that can influence the risk of disease, there is also a number of other complicating factors. Genetic variants associated with age of disease onset may be different from those variants associated with overall risk of disease, and variants may be located in positions that are not consistent with the traditional protein coding genetic paradigm. Latent Variable Models are well suited for the analysis of genetic data. A latent variable is one that we do not directly observe, but which is believed to exist or is included for computational or analytic convenience in a model. This thesis presents a mixture of methodological developments utilising latent variables, and results from case studies in genetic epidemiology and comparative genomics. Epidemiological studies have identified a number of environmental risk factors for appendicitis, but the disease aetiology of this oft thought useless vestige remains largely a mystery. The effects of smoking on other gastrointestinal disorders are well documented, and in light of this, the thesis investigates the association between smoking and appendicitis through the use of latent variables. By utilising data from a large Australian twin study questionnaire as both cohort and case-control, evidence is found for the association between tobacco smoking and appendicitis. Twin and family studies have also found evidence for the role of heredity in the risk of appendicitis. Results from previous studies are extended here to estimate the heritability of age-at-onset and account for the eect of smoking. This thesis presents a novel approach for performing a genome-wide variance components linkage analysis on transformed residuals from a Cox regression. This method finds evidence for a dierent subset of genes responsible for variation in age at onset than those associated with overall risk of appendicitis. Motivated by increasing evidence of functional activity in regions of the genome once thought of as evolutionary graveyards, this thesis develops a generalisation to the Bayesian multiple changepoint model on aligned DNA sequences for more than two species. This sensitive technique is applied to evaluating the distributions of evolutionary rates, with the finding that they are much more complex than previously apparent. We show strong evidence for at least 9 well-resolved evolutionary rate classes in an alignment of four Drosophila species and at least 7 classes in an alignment of four mammals, including human. A pattern of enrichment and depletion of genic regions in the profiled segments suggests they are functionally significant, and most likely consist of various functional classes. Furthermore, a method of incorporating alignment characteristics representative of function such as GC content and type of mutation into the segmentation model is developed within this thesis. Evidence of fine-structured segmental variation is presented.

Temperature and electric field dependent mobility in poly„3-hexylthiophene diodes

Current-voltage (I-V) curves of Poly(3-hexyl-thiophene) (P3HT) diodes have been collected to investigate the polymer hole-dominated charge transport. At room temperature and at low electric fields the I-V characteristic is purely Ohmic whereas at medium-high electric fields, experimental data shows that the hole transport is Trap Dominated - Space Charge Limited Current (TD-SCLC). In this regime, it is possible to extract the I-V characteristic of the P3HT/Al junction showing the ideal Schottky diode behaviour over five orders of magnitude. At high-applied electric fields, holes’ transport is found to be in the trap free SCLC regime. We have measured and modelled in this regime the holes’ mobility to evaluate its dependence from the electric field applied and the temperature of the device.