The role of strategic intelligence in anticipating transnational organised crime: A literary review

Transnational Organised Crime (TOC) has become a focal point for a range of private and public stakeholders. While not a new phenomenon, the rapid expansion of TOC activities and interests, its increasingly complex structures and ability to maximise opportunity by employing new technologies at a rate impossible for law enforcement to match complicates law enforcement’s ability to develop strategies to detect, disrupt, prevent and investigate them. In an age where the role of police has morphed from simplistic response and enforcement activities to one of managing human security risk, it is argued that intelligence can be used to reduce the impact of strategic surprise from evolving criminal threats and environmental change. This review specifically focuses on research that has implications for strategic intelligence and strategy setting in a TOC context. The review findings suggest that current law enforcement intelligence literature focuses narrowly on the management concept of intelligence-led policing in a tactical, operational setting. As such the review identifies central issues surrounding strategic intelligence and highlights key questions that future research agendas must address to improve strategic intelligence outcomes, particularly in the fight against TOC.

The effectiveness of traffic policing in reducing traffic crashes

Many governments throughout the world rely heavily on traffic law enforcement programs to modify driver behaviour and enhance road safety. There are two related functions of traffic law enforcement, apprehension and deterrence, and these are achieved through three processes: the establishment of traffic laws, the policing of those laws, and the application of penalties and sanctions to offenders. Traffic policing programs can vary by visibility (overt or covert) and deployment methods (scheduled and non-scheduled), while sanctions can serve to constrain, deter or reform offending behaviour. This chapter will review the effectiveness of traffic law enforcement strategies from the perspective of a range of high-risk, illegal driving behaviours including drink/drug driving, speeding, seat belt use and red light running. Additionally, this chapter discusses how traffic police are increasingly using technology to enforce traffic laws and thus reduce crashes. The chapter concludes that effective traffic policing involves a range of both overt and covert operations and includes a mix of automatic and more traditional manual enforcement methods. It is important to increase both the perceived and actual risk of detection by ensuring that traffic law enforcement operations are sufficiently intensive, unpredictable in nature and conducted as widely as possible across the road network. A key means of maintaining the unpredictability of operations is through the random deployment of enforcement and/or the random checking of drivers. The impact of traffic enforcement is also heightened when it is supported by public education campaigns. In the future, technological improvements will allow the use of more innovative enforcement strategies. Finally, further research is needed to continue the development of traffic policing approaches and address emerging road safety issues.

Can you describe him for me? A technique for semantic person search in video

From a law enforcement standpoint, the ability to search for a person matching a semantic description (i.e. 1.8m tall, red shirt, jeans) is highly desirable. While a significant research effort has focused on person re-detection (the task of identifying a previously observed individual in surveillance video), these techniques require descriptors to be built from existing image or video observations. As such, person re-detection techniques are not suited to situations where footage of the person of interest is not readily available, such as a witness reporting a recent crime. In this paper, we present a novel framework that is able to search for a person based on a semantic description. The proposed approach uses size and colour cues, and does not require a person detection routine to locate people in the scene, improving utility in crowded conditions. The proposed approach is demonstrated with a new database that will be made available to the research community, and we show that the proposed technique is able to correctly localise a person in a video based on a simple semantic description.

Normative influences across cultures : conceptual differences and potential confounders among drivers in Australia and China

Normative influences on road user behaviour have been well documented and include such things as personal, group, subjective and moral norms. Commonly, normative factors are examined within one cultural context, although a few examples of exploring the issue across cultures exist. Such examples add to our understanding of differences in perceptions of the normative factors that may exert influence on road users and can assist in determining whether successful road safety interventions in one location may be successful in another. Notably, the literature is relatively silent on such influences in countries experiencing rapidly escalating rates of motorization. China is one such country where new drivers are taking to the roads in unprecedented numbers and authorities are grappling with the associated challenges. This paper presents results from qualitative and quantitative research on self-reported driving speeds of car drivers and related issues in Australia and China. Focus group interviews and questionnaires conducted in each country examined normative factors that might influence driving in each cultural context. Qualitative findings indicated perceptions of community acceptance of speeding were present in both countries but appeared more widespread in China, yet quantitative results did not support this difference. Similarly, with regard to negative social feedback from speeding, qualitative findings suggested no embarrassment associated with speeding among Chinese participants and mixed results among Australian participants, yet quantitative results indicated greater embarrassment for Chinese drivers. This issue was also examined from the perspective of self-identity and findings were generally similar across both samples and appear related to whether it is important to be perceived as a skilled/safe driver by others. An interesting and important finding emerged with regard to how Chinese drivers may respond to questions about road safety issues if the answers might influence foreigners’ perceptions of China. In attempting to assess community norms associated with speeding, participants were asked to describe what they would tell a foreign visitor about the prevalence of speeding in China. Responses indicated that if asked by a foreigner, people may answer in a manner that portrayed China as a safe country (e.g., that drivers do not speed), irrespective of the actual situation. This ‘faking good for foreigners’ phenomenon highlights the importance of considering ‘face’ when conducting research in China – a concept absent from the road safety literature. An additional noteworthy finding that has been briefly described in the road safety literature is the importance and strength of the normative influence of social networks (guanxi) in China. The use of personal networks to assist in avoiding penalties for traffic violations was described by Chinese participants and is an area that could be addressed to strengthen the deterrent effect of traffic law enforcement. Overall, the findings suggest important considerations for developing and implementing road safety countermeasures in different cultural contexts.

Fatalism, superstition, religion, and culture : road user beliefs and behaviour in Pakistan

Road traffic crashes have emerged as a major health problem around the world. Road crash fatalities and injuries have been reduced significantly in developed countries, but they are still an issue in low and middle-income countries. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2009) estimates that the death toll from road crashes in low- and middle-income nations is more than 1 million people per year, or about 90% of the global road toll, even though these countries only account for 48% of the world's vehicles. Furthermore, it is estimated that approximately 265,000 people die every year in road crashes in South Asian countries and Pakistan stands out with 41,494 approximately deaths per year. Pakistan has the highest rate of fatalities per 100,000 population in the region and its road crash fatality rate of 25.3 per 100,000 population is more than three times that of Australia's. High numbers of road crashes not only cause pain and suffering to the population at large, but are also a serious drain on the country's economy, which Pakistan can ill-afford. Most studies identify human factors as the main set of contributing factors to road crashes, well ahead of road environment and vehicle factors. In developing countries especially, attention and resources are required in order to improve things such as vehicle roadworthiness and poor road infrastructure. However, attention to human factors is also critical. Human factors which contribute to crashes include high risk behaviours like speeding and drink driving, and neglect of protective behaviours such as helmet wearing and seat belt wearing. Much research has been devoted to the attitudes, beliefs and perceptions which contribute to these behaviours and omissions, in order to develop interventions aimed at increasing safer road use behaviours and thereby reducing crashes. However, less progress has been made in addressing human factors contributing to crashes in developing countries as compared to the many improvements in road environments and vehicle standards, and this is especially true of fatalistic beliefs and behaviours. This is a significant omission, since in different cultures in developing countries there are strong worldviews in which predestination persists as a central idea, i.e. that one's life (and death) and other events have been mapped out and are predetermined. Fatalism refers to a particular way in which people regard the events that occur in their lives, usually expressed as a belief that an individual does not have personal control over circumstances and that their lives are determined through a divine or powerful external agency (Hazen & Ehiri, 2006). These views are at odds with the dominant themes of modern health promotion movements, and present significant challenges for health advocates who aim to avert road crashes and diminish their consequences. The limited literature on fatalism reveals that it is not a simple concept, with religion, culture, superstition, experience, education and degree of perceived control of one's life all being implicated in accounts of fatalism. One distinction in the literature that seems promising is the distinction between empirical and theological fatalism, although there are areas of uncertainty about how well-defined the distinction between these types of fatalism is. Research into road safety in Pakistan is scarce, as is the case for other South Asian countries. From the review of the literature conducted, it is clear that the descriptions given of the different belief systems in developing countries including Pakistan are not entirely helpful for health promotion purposes and that further research is warranted on the influence of fatalism, superstition and other related beliefs in road safety. Based on the information available, a conceptual framework is developed as a means of structuring and focusing the research and analysis. The framework is focused on the influence of fatalism, superstition, religion and culture on beliefs about crashes and road user behaviour. Accordingly, this research aims to provide an understanding of the operation of fatalism and related beliefs in Pakistan to assist in the development and implementation of effective and culturally appropriate interventions. The research examines the influence of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs on risky road use in Pakistan and is guided by three research questions: 1. What are the perceptions of road crash causation in Pakistan, in particular the role of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs? 2. How does fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs influence road user behaviour in Pakistan? 3. Do fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs work as obstacles to road safety interventions in Pakistan? To address these questions, a qualitative research methodology was developed. The research focused on gathering data through individual in-depth interviewing using a semi-structured interview format. A sample of 30 participants was interviewed in Pakistan in the cities of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The participants included policy makers (with responsibility for traffic law), experienced police officers, religious orators, professional drivers (truck, bus and taxi) and general drivers selected through a combination of purposive, criterion and snowball sampling. The transcripts were translated from Urdu and analysed using a thematic analysis approach guided by the conceptual framework. The findings were divided into four areas: attribution of crash causation to fatalism; attribution of road crashes to beliefs about superstition and malicious acts; beliefs about road crash causation linked to popular concepts of religion; and implications for behaviour, safety and enforcement. Fatalism was almost universally evident, and expressed in a number of ways. Fate was used to rationalise fatal crashes using the argument that the people killed were destined to die that day, one way or another. Related to this was the sense of either not being fully in control of the vehicle, or not needing to take safety precautions, because crashes were predestined anyway. A variety of superstitious-based crash attributions and coping methods to deal with road crashes were also found, such as belief in the role of the evil eye in contributing to road crashes and the use of black magic by rivals or enemies as a crash cause. There were also beliefs related to popular conceptions of religion, such as the role of crashes as a test of life or a source of martyrdom. However, superstitions did not appear to be an alternative to religious beliefs. Fate appeared as the 'default attribution' for a crash when all other explanations failed to account for the incident. This pervasive belief was utilised to justify risky road use behaviour and to resist messages about preventive measures. There was a strong religious underpinning to the statement of fatalistic beliefs (this reflects popular conceptions of Islam rather than scholarly interpretations), but also an overlap with superstitious and other culturally and religious-based beliefs which have longer-standing roots in Pakistani culture. A particular issue which is explored in more detail is the way in which these beliefs and their interpretation within Pakistani society contributed to poor police reporting of crashes. The pervasive nature of fatalistic beliefs in Pakistan affects road user behaviour by supporting continued risk taking behaviour on the road, and by interfering with public health messages about behaviours which would reduce the risk of traffic crashes. The widespread influence of these beliefs on the ways that people respond to traffic crashes and the death of family members contribute to low crash reporting rates and to a system which appears difficult to change. Fate also appeared to be a major contributing factor to non-reporting of road crashes. There also appeared to be a relationship between police enforcement and (lack of) awareness of road rules. It also appears likely that beliefs can influence police work, especially in the case of road crash investigation and the development of strategies. It is anticipated that the findings could be used as a blueprint for the design of interventions aimed at influencing broad-spectrum health attitudes and practices among the communities where fatalism is prevalent. The findings have also identified aspects of beliefs that have complex social implications when designing and piloting driver intervention strategies. By understanding attitudes and behaviours related to fatalism, superstition and other related concepts, it should be possible to improve the education of general road users, such that they are less likely to attribute road crashes to chance, fate, or superstition. This study also underscores the understanding of this issue in high echelons of society (e.g., policy makers, senior police officers) as their role is vital in dispelling road users' misconceptions about the risks of road crashes. The promotion of an evidence or scientifically-based approach to road user behaviour and road safety is recommended, along with improved professional education for police and policy makers.

On the commonly accepted assumptions regarding observed motor vehicle crash counts at transport system locations

Readily accepted knowledge regarding crash causation is consistently omitted from efforts to model and subsequently understand motor vehicle crash occurrence and their contributing factors. For instance, distracted and impaired driving accounts for a significant proportion of crash occurrence, yet is rarely modeled explicitly. In addition, spatially allocated influences such as local law enforcement efforts, proximity to bars and schools, and roadside chronic distractions (advertising, pedestrians, etc.) play a role in contributing to crash occurrence and yet are routinely absent from crash models. By and large, these well-established omitted effects are simply assumed to contribute to model error, with predominant focus on modeling the engineering and operational effects of transportation facilities (e.g. AADT, number of lanes, speed limits, width of lanes, etc.) The typical analytical approach—with a variety of statistical enhancements—has been to model crashes that occur at system locations as negative binomial (NB) distributed events that arise from a singular, underlying crash generating process. These models and their statistical kin dominate the literature; however, it is argued in this paper that these models fail to capture the underlying complexity of motor vehicle crash causes, and thus thwart deeper insights regarding crash causation and prevention. This paper first describes hypothetical scenarios that collectively illustrate why current models mislead highway safety researchers and engineers. It is argued that current model shortcomings are significant, and will lead to poor decision-making. Exploiting our current state of knowledge of crash causation, crash counts are postulated to arise from three processes: observed network features, unobserved spatial effects, and ‘apparent’ random influences that reflect largely behavioral influences of drivers. It is argued; furthermore, that these three processes in theory can be modeled separately to gain deeper insight into crash causes, and that the model represents a more realistic depiction of reality than the state of practice NB regression. An admittedly imperfect empirical model that mixes three independent crash occurrence processes is shown to outperform the classical NB model. The questioning of current modeling assumptions and implications of the latent mixture model to current practice are the most important contributions of this paper, with an initial but rather vulnerable attempt to model the latent mixtures as a secondary contribution.

Reconceptualising policy integration in road safety management

Unless sustained, coordinated action is generated in road safety, road traffic deaths are poised to rise from approximately 1.3 to 1.9 million a year by 2020 (Krug, 2012). To generate this harmonised response, road safety management agencies are being urged to adopt multisectoral collaboration (WHO, 2009b), which is achievable through the principle of policy integration. Yet policy integration, in its current hierarchical format, is marred by a lack of universality of its interpretation, a failure to anticipate the complexities of coordinated effort, dearth of information about its design and the absence of a normative perspective to share responsibility. This paper addresses this ill-conception of policy integration by reconceptualising it through a qualitative examination of 16 road safety stakeholders’ written submissions, lodged with the Australian Transport Council in 2011. The resulting, new principle of policy integration, Participatory Deliberative Integration, provides a conceptual framework for the alignment of effort across stakeholders in transport, health, traffic law enforcement, relevant trades and the community. With the adoption of Participatory Deliberative Integration, road safety management agencies should secure the commitment of key stakeholders in the development and implementation of, amongst other policy measures, National Road Safety Strategies and Mix Mode Integrated Timetabling.

Characteristics of Chinese drivers attending a mandatory training course following license suspension

Penalties and sanctions to deter risky/illegal behaviours are important components of traffic law enforcement. Sanctions can be applied to the vehicle (e.g., impoundment), the person (e.g., remedial programs or jail), or the licence (e.g., disqualification). For licence sanctions, some offences attract automatic suspension while others attract demerit points which can indirectly lead to licence loss. In China, a licence is suspended when a driver accrues twelve demerit points within one year. When this occurs, the person must undertake a one-week retraining course at their own expense and successfully pass an examination to become relicensed. Little is known about the effectiveness of this program. A pilot study was conducted in Zhejiang Province to examine basic information about participants of a retraining course. The aim was to gather baseline data for future comparison. Participants were recruited at a driver retraining centre in a large city in Zhejiang Province. In total, 239 suspended drivers completed an anonymous questionnaire which included demographic information, driving history, and crash involvement. Overall, 87% were male with an overall mean age of 35.02 years (SD=8.77; range 21-60 years). A large proportion (83.3%) of participants owned a vehicle. Commuting to work was reported by 64% as their main reason for driving, while 16.3% reported driving for work. Only 6.4% reported holding a licence for 1 year or less (M=8.14 years, SD=6.5, range 1-31 years) and people reported driving an average of 18.06 hours/week (SD=14.4, range 1-86 hours). This represents a relatively experienced group, especially given the increase in new drivers in China. The number of infringements reportedly received in the previous year ranged from 2 to 18 (M=4.6, SD=3.18); one third of participants reported having received 5 or more infringements. Approximately one third also reported having received infringements in the previous year but not paid them. Various strategies for avoiding penalties were reported. The most commonly reported traffic violations were: drink driving (DUI; 0.02-0.08 mg/100ml) with 61.5% reporting 1 such violation; and speeding (47.7% reported 1-10 violations). Only 2.2% of participants reported the more serious drunk driving violation (DWI; above 0.08mg/100ml). Other violations included disobeying traffic rules, using inappropriate licence, and licence plate destroyed/not displayed. Two-thirds of participants reported no crash involvement in the previous year while 14.2% reported involvement in 2-5 crashes. The relationship between infringements and crashes was limited, however there was a small, positive significant correlation between crashes and speeding infringements (r=.2, p=.004). Overall, these results indicate the need for improved compliance with the law among this sample of traffic offenders. For example, lower level drink driving (DUI) and speeding were the most commonly reported violations with some drivers having committed a large number in the previous year. It is encouraging that the more serious offence of drunk driving (DWI) was rarely reported. The effectiveness of this driver retraining program and the demerit point penalty system in China is currently unclear. Future research including driver follow up via longitudinal study is recommended to determine program effectiveness to enhance road safety in China.

Organized crime in Oceania

Oceania has a relatively low level of crime prevalence yet in the smaller and under-developed PICs we have shown that transnational crime has become increasingly common. A risk contained but potentially dangerous if state failure or fragility undermines law enforcement capacities. We predict that as the pace of globalization quickens and the demand for raw materials and resources grows some parts of the Pacific will be prone to criminal enterprises run by both indigenous and foreign crime groups. Australia and New Zealand will remain attractors of illicit goods notably ATS but will in turn be source countries for diminishing fish stock such as beche de mere and abalone as well forest timber. Finally the role of states such as Australia and New Zealand in helping to maintain law enforcement capacities throughout the region will be crucial if organized crime in Oceania is to be kept in check while demand for illicit resources grow.

Transnational organized crime in Oceania

Oceania has a relatively low level of crime prevalence yet in the smaller and under-developed PICs we have shown that transnational crime has become increasingly common. A risk contained but potentially dangerous if state failure or fragility undermines law enforcement capacities. We predict that as the pace of globalization quickens and the demand for raw materials and resources grows some parts of the Pacific will be prone to criminal enterprises run by both indigenous and foreign crime groups. Australia and New Zealand will remain attractors of illicit goods notably ATS but will in turn be source countries for diminishing fish stock such as beche de mere and abalone as well forest timber. Finally the role of states such as Australia and New Zealand in helping to maintain law enforcement capacities throughout the region will be crucial if organized crime in Oceania is to be kept in check while demand for illicit resources grow.

Liveness detection based on 3D face shape analysis

In recent years face recognition systems have been applied in various useful applications, such as surveillance, access control, criminal investigations, law enforcement, and others. However face biometric systems can be highly vulnerable to spoofing attacks where an impostor tries to bypass the face recognition system using a photo or video sequence. In this paper a novel liveness detection method, based on the 3D structure of the face, is proposed. Processing the 3D curvature of the acquired data, the proposed approach allows a biometric system to distinguish a real face from a photo, increasing the overall performance of the system and reducing its vulnerability. In order to test the real capability of the methodology a 3D face database has been collected simulating spoofing attacks, therefore using photographs instead of real faces. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Random Breath Testing in Australia: Is there an Optimum Level of Intensity?

Background: Random Breath Testing (RBT) is the main drink driving law enforcement tool used throughout Australia. International comparative research considers Australia to have the most successful RBT program compared to other countries in terms of crash reductions (Erke, Goldenbeld, & Vaa, 2009). This success is attributed to the programs high intensity (Erke et al., 2009). Our review of the extant literature suggests that there is no research evidence that indicates an optimal level of alcohol breath testing. That is, we suggest that no research exists to guide policy regarding whether or not there is a point at which alcohol related crashes reach a point of diminishing returns as a result of either saturated or targeted RBT testing. Aims: In this paper we first provide an examination of RBTs and alcohol related crashes across Australian jurisdictions. We then address the question of whether or not an optimal level of random breath testing exists by examining the relationship between the number of RBTs conducted and the occurrence of alcohol-related crashes over time, across all Australian states. Method: To examine the association between RBT rates and alcohol related crashes and to assess whether an optimal ratio of RBT tests per licenced drivers can be determined we draw on three administrative data sources form each jurisdiction. Where possible data collected spans January 1st 2000 to September 30th 2012. The RBT administrative dataset includes the number of Random Breath Tests (RBTs) conducted per month. The traffic crash administrative dataset contains aggregated monthly count of the number of traffic crashes where an individual’s recorded BAC reaches or exceeds 0.05g/ml of alcohol in blood. The licenced driver data were the monthly number of registered licenced drivers spanning January 2000 to December 2011. Results: The data highlights that the Australian story does not reflective of all States and territories. The stable RBT to licenced driver ratio in Queensland (of 1:1) suggests a stable rate of alcohol related crash data of 5.5 per 100,000 licenced drivers. Yet, in South Australia were a relative stable rate of RBT to licenced driver ratio of 1:2 is maintained the rate of alcohol related traffic crashes is substantially less at 3.7 per 100,000. We use joinpoint regression techniques and varying regression models to fit the data and compare the different patterns between jurisdictions. Discussion: The results of this study provide an updated review and evaluation of RBTs conducted in Australia and examines the association between RBTs and alcohol related traffic crashes. We also present an evidence base to guide policy decisions for RBT operations.

Differences between provisionally licensed drivers who always display P plates and those who do not

Like most Australian states, the New South Wales Graduated Driver Licensing system requires all provisionally licensed drivers to display ‘P plates’ on their vehicle to indicate their licence status and facilitate enforcement. This paper examines whether the display of P plates increases compliance with driving laws in New South Wales. The driving behaviours of provisional drivers who reported always displaying their P plates were compared with those of drivers who sometimes drove without displaying their P plates. While no differences were found between the two groups on some behaviours, provisional drivers who did not always display their P plates indicated that they were less likely to obey the provisional speed limit and more likely to break the road rules if they knew they would not be caught. These results suggest that the requirement to display a P plate remains a priority to facilitate more general traffic law enforcement initiatives.

Promoting a more positive traffic safety culture in Australia : lessons learnt and future directions

Adopting a traffic safety culture approach, this paper identifies and discusses the ongoing challenge of promoting the road safety message in Australia. It is widely acknowledged that mass media and public education initiatives have played a critical role in the significant positive changes witnessed in community attitudes to road safety in the last three to four decades. It could be argued that mass media and education have had a direct influence on behaviours and attitudes, as well as an indirect influence through signposting and awareness raising functions in conjunction with enforcement. Great achievements have been made in reducing fatalities on Australia’s roads; a concept which is well understood among the international road safety fraternity. How well these achievements are appreciated by the general Australian community however, is not clear. This paper explores the lessons that can be learnt from successes in attitudinal and behaviour change in regard to seatbelt use and drink driving in Australia. It also identifies and discusses key challenges associated with achieving further positive changes in community attitudes and behaviours, particularly in relation to behaviours that may not be perceived by the community as dangerous, such as speeding and mobile phone use while driving. Potential strategies for future mass media and public education campaigns to target these challenges are suggested, including ways of harnessing the power of contemporary traffic law enforcement techniques, such as point-to-point speed enforcement and in-vehicle technologies, to help spread the road safety message.

Policing Transnational Organized Crime and Corruption : Exploring the Role of Communication Interception Technology

Technology has advanced in such a manner that the world can now communicate in means previously never thought possible. These new technologies have not been overlooked by transnational organized crime groups and networks of corruption, and have been exploited for criminal success. This text explores the use of communication interception technology (CIT), such as phone taps or email interception, and its potential to cause serious disruption to these criminal enterprises. Exploring the placement of communication interception technology within differing policing frameworks, and how they integrate in a practical manner, the authors demonstrate that CIT is best placed within a proactive, intelligence-led policing framework. They also indicate that if law enforcement agencies in Western countries are serious about fighting transnational organized crime and combating corruption, there is a need to re-evaluate the constraints of interception technology, and the sceptical culture that surrounds intelligence in policing. Policing Transnational Organized Crime and Corruption will appeal to scholars of Law, Criminal Justice and Police Science as well as intelligence analysts and police and security intelligence professionals.