Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

User friendly guide for rehabilitation or strengthening of bridge structures using fiber reinforced polymer composites

A worldwide interest is being generated in the use of fibre reinforced polymer composites (FRP) in rehabilitation of reinforced concrete structures. As a replacement for the traditional steel plates or external post-tensioning in strengthening applications, various types of FRP plates, with their high strength to weight ratio and good resistance to corrosion, represent a class of ideal material in external retrofitting. Within the last ten years, many design guidelines have been published to provide guidance for the selection, design and installation of FRP systems for external strengthening of concrete structures. Use of these guidelines requires understanding of a number of issues pertaining to different properties and structural failure modes specific to these materials. A research initiative funded by the CRC for Construction Innovation was undertaken (primarily at RMIT) to develop a decision support tool and a user friendly guide for use of fibre reinforced polymer composites in rehabilitation of concrete structures. The user guidelines presented in this report were developed after industry consultation and a comprehensive review of the state of the art technology. The scope of the guide was mainly developed based on outcomes of two workshops with Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR). The document covers material properties, recommended construction requirements, design philosophy, flexural, shear and torsional strengthening of beams and strengthening of columns. In developing this document, the guidelines published on FIB Bulletin 14 (2002), Task group 9.3, International Federation of Structural Concrete (FIB) and American Concrete Institute Committee 440 report (2002) were consulted in conjunction with provisions of the Austroads Bridge design code (1992) and Australian Concrete Structures code AS3600 (2002). In conclusion, the user guide presents design examples covering typical strengthening scenarios.

Forensic challenges in service oriented architectures

Digital forensics relates to the investigation of a crime or other suspect behaviour using digital evidence. Previous work has dealt with the forensic reconstruction of computer-based activity on single hosts, but with the additional complexity involved with a distributed environment, a Web services-centric approach is required. A framework for this type of forensic examination needs to allow for the reconstruction of transactions spanning multiple hosts, platforms and applications. A tool implementing such an approach could be used by an investigator to identify scenarios of Web services being misused, exploited, or otherwise compromised. This information could be used to redesign Web services in order to mitigate identified risks. This paper explores the requirements of a framework for performing effective forensic examinations in a Web services environment. This framework will be necessary in order to develop forensic tools and techniques for use in service oriented architectures.

DesignWorld : a tool for team collaboration in high band virtual environments

Current software tools for documenting and developing models of buildings focus on supporting a single user who is a specialist in the specific software used within their own discipline. Extensions to these tools for use by teams maintain the single discipline view and focus on version and file management. There is a perceived need in industry to have tools that specifically support collaboration among individuals from multiple disciplines with both a graphical representation of the design and a persistent data model. This project involves the development of a prototype of such a software tool. We have identified multi-user 3D virtual worlds as an appropriate software base for the development of a collaborative design tool. These worlds are inherently multi-user and therefore directly support collaboration through a sense of awareness of others in the virtual world, their location within the world, and provide various channels for direct and indirect communication. Such software platforms also provide a 3D building and modelling environment that can be adapted to the needs of the building and construction industry. DesignWorld is a prototype system for collaborative design developed by augmenting the Second Life (SL) commercial software platform1 with a collection web-based tools for communication and design. Agents manage communication between the 3D virtual world and the web-based tools. In addition, agents maintain a persistent external model of designs in the 3D world which can be augmented with data such as relationships, disciplines and versions not usually associated with 3D virtual worlds but required in design scenarios.

Damage propagation in reinforced concrete frames under external blast loading

Iconic and significant buildings are the common target of bombings by terrorists causing large numbers of casualties and extensive property damage. Recent incidents were external bomb attacks on multi-storey buildings with reinforced concrete frames. Under a blast load circumstance, crucial damage initiates at low level storeys in a building and may then lead to a progressive collapse of whole or part of the structure. It is therefore important to identify the critical initial influence regions along the height, width and depth of the building exposed to blast effects and the structure response in order to assess the vulnerability of the structure to disproportionate and progressive collapse. This paper discusses the blast response and the propagation of its effects on a two dimensional reinforced concrete (RC) frame, designed to withstand normal gravity loads. The explicit finite element code, LS DYNA is used for the analysis. A complete RC portal frame seven storeys by six bays is modelled with reinforcement details and appropriate materials to simulate strain rate effects. Explosion loads derived from standard manuals are applied as idealized triangular pressures on the column faces of the numerical models. The analysis reports the influence of blast propagation as displacements and material yielding of the structural elements in the RC frame. The effected regions are identified and classified according to the load cases. This information can be used to determine the vulnerability of multi-storey RC buildings to various external explosion scenarios and designing buildings to resist blast loads.

HVAC system size – getting it right

There is evidence that many heating, ventilating & air conditioning (HVAC) systems, installed in larger buildings, have more capacity than is ever required to keep the occupants comfortable. This paper explores the reasons why this can occur, by examining a typical brief/design/documentation process. Over-sized HVAC systems cost more to install and operate and may not be able to control thermal comfort as well as a “right-sized” system. These impacts are evaluated, where data exists. Finally, some suggestions are developed to minimise both the extent of, and the negative impacts of, HVAC system over-sizing, for example: • Challenge “rules of thumb” and/or brief requirements which may be out of date. • Conduct an accurate load estimate, using AIRAH design data, specific to project location, and then resist the temptation to apply “safety factors • Use a load estimation program that accounts for thermal storage and diversification of peak loads for each zone and air handling system. • Select chiller sizes and staged or variable speed pumps and fans to ensure good part load performance. • Allow for unknown future tenancies by designing flexibility into the system, not by over-sizing. For example, generous sizing of distribution pipework and ductwork will allow available capacity to be redistributed. • Provide an auxiliary tenant condenser water loop to handle high load areas. • Consider using an Integrated Design Process, build an integrated load and energy use simulation model and test different operational scenarios • Use comprehensive Life Cycle Cost analysis for selection of the most optimal design solutions. This paper is an interim report on the findings of CRC-CI project 2002-051-B, Right-Sizing HVAC Systems, which is due for completion in January 2006.

Teaching business process modelling : experiences and recommendations

A curriculum for a university-level course called Business Process Modeling is presented in order to provide guidance for the increasing number of institutions who are currently developing such contents. The course caters to undergraduate and post graduate students. Its content is drawn from recent research, industry practice, and established teaching material, and teaches ways of specifying business processes for the analysis and design of process-aware information systems. The teaching approach is a blend of lectures and classroom exercises with innovative case studies, as well as reviews of research material. Students are asked to conceptualize, analyze, and articulate real life process scenarios. Tutorials and cheat sheets assist with the learning experience. Course evaluations from 40 students suggest the adequacy of the teaching approach. Specifically, evaluations show a high degree of satisfaction with course relevance, content presentation, and teaching approach.

Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Effects of fare collection policy on operating characteristics of a Brisbane busway station

Transit agencies across the world are increasingly shifting their fare collection mechanisms towards fully automated systems like the smart card. One of the objectives in implementing such a system is to reduce the boarding time per passenger and hence reduce the overall dwell time for the buses at the bus stops/bus rapid transit (BRT) stations. TransLink, the transit authority responsible for public transport management in South East Queensland, has introduced ‘GoCard’ technology using the Cubic platform for fare collection on its public transport system. In addition to this, three inner city BRT stations on South East Busway spine are operating as pre-paid platforms during evening peak time. This paper evaluates the effects of these multiple policy measures on operation of study busway station. The comparison between pre and post policy scenarios suggests that though boarding time per passenger has decreased, while the alighting time per passenger has increased slightly. However, there is a substantial reduction in operating efficiency was observed at the station.

The ethical predisposition of university students in Western Australia : 1997 vs 2007

A sample of 285 Western Australian university students was used to assess the prevailing attitudes regarding potential breaches of ethical conduct on the part of business practitioners and organisations. The authors developed an ethical profile for the 2007 sample based on 14 scenarios used in the questionnaire. This profile was then compared to the results from data collected in 1997 using similar sampling and the same survey instrument. The prevailing predisposition is best viewed as centrist in nature, with a move to a more ethical stance in the last 10 years.

Workflow simulation for operational decision support

Simulation is widely used as a tool for analyzing business processes but is mostly focused on examining abstract steady-state situations. Such analyses are helpful for the initial design of a business process but are less suitable for operational decision making and continuous improvement. Here we describe a simulation system for operational decision support in the context of workflow management. To do this we exploit not only the workflow’s design, but also use logged data describing the system’s observed historic behavior, and incorporate information extracted about the current state of the workflow. Making use of actual data capturing the current state and historic information allows our simulations to accurately predict potential near-future behaviors for different scenarios. The approach is supported by a practical toolset which combines and extends the workflow management system YAWL and the process mining framework ProM.

Body-shadowing effects in indoor MIMO-OFDM channel capacity

We investigate Multiple-Input and Multiple-Output Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) systems behavior in indoor populated environments that have line-of-site (LoS) between transmitter and receiver arrays. The in-house built MIMO-OFDM packet transmission demonstrator, equipped with four transmitters and four receivers, has been utilized to perform channel measurements at 5.2 GHz. Measurements have been performed using 0 to 3 pedestrians with different antenna arrays (2 £ 2, 3 £ 3 and 4 £ 4). The maximum average capacity for the 2x2 deterministic Fixed SNR scenario is 8.5 dB compared to the 4x4 deterministic scenario that has a maximum average capacity of 16.2 dB, thus an increment of 8 dB in average capacity has been measured when the array size increases from 2x2 to 4x4. In addition a regular variation has been observed for Random scenarios compared to the deterministic scenarios. An incremental trend in average channel capacity for both deterministic and random pedestrian movements has been observed with increasing number of pedestrian and antennas. In deterministic scenarios, the variations in average channel capacity are more noticeable than for the random scenarios due to a more prolonged and controlled body-shadowing effect. Moreover due to the frequent Los blocking and fixed transmission power a slight decrement have been observed in the spread between the maximum and minimum capacity with random fixed Tx power scenario.

The successful influence of teaching ethics on Malaysian accounting students

The Malaysian accounting profession is committed to promoting education that results in a strong ethical culture within accountants. However, some consider ethical training unproductive since trainees may have their ethical values formed pre-commencement. This paper investigates the impact of ethics instruction on final year accounting students, the future accountants of Malaysia. 85 final year accounting students were given five ethical scenarios, and asked what action they considered appropriate. They were then subject to two ethical training methodologies, a traditional lecture/tutorial process and a group assignment. After a significant gap, students were re-presented with the ethical scenarios and asked what action they now considered appropriate. In all five instances students offered a more ethical response the second time. Also, participants rated both training methods and their combined effect as effective. Results suggest there is benefit in including ethics teaching and indeed emphasising its importance in accountancy courses, if the profession’s goal of ethical practitioners is to be achieved.

Configurable reference modeling languages

This chapter discusses reference modelling languages for business systems analysis and design. In particular, it reports on reference models in the context of the design-for/by-reuse paradigm, explains how traditional modelling techniques fail to provide adequate conceptual expressiveness to allow for easy model reuse by configuration or adaptation and elaborates on the need for reference modelling languages to be configurable. We discuss requirements for and the development of reference modelling languages that reflect the need for configurability. Exemplarily, we report on the development, definition and configuration of configurable event-driven process chains. We further outline how configurable reference modelling languages and the corresponding design principles can be used in future scenarios such as process mining and data modelling.

Building information modelling project decision support framework

Building Information Modelling (BIM) is an information technology [IT] enabled approach to managing design data in the AEC/FM (Architecture, Engineering and Construction/ Facilities Management) industry. BIM enables improved interdisciplinary collaboration across distributed teams, intelligent documentation and information retrieval, greater consistency in building data, better conflict detection and enhanced facilities management. Despite the apparent benefits the adoption of BIM in practice has been slow. Workshops with industry focus groups were conducted to identify the industry needs, concerns and expectations from participants who had implemented BIM or were BIM “ready”. Factors inhibiting BIM adoption include lack of training, low business incentives, perception of lack of rewards, technological concerns, industry fragmentation related to uneven ICT adoption practices, contractual matters and resistance to changing current work practice. Successful BIM usage depends on collective adoption of BIM across the different disciplines and support by the client. The relationship of current work practices to future BIM scenarios was identified as an important strategy as the participants believed that BIM cannot be efficiently used with traditional practices and methods. The key to successful implementation is to explore the extent to which current work practices must change. Currently there is a perception that all work practices and processes must adopt and change for effective usage of BIM. It is acknowledged that new roles and responsibilities are emerging and that different parties will lead BIM on different projects. A contingency based approach to the problem of implementation was taken which relies upon integration of BIM project champion, procurement strategy, team capability analysis, commercial software availability/applicability and phase decision making and event analysis. Organizations need to understand: (a) their own work processes and requirements; (b) the range of BIM applications available in the market and their capabilities (c) the potential benefits of different BIM applications and their roles in different phases of the project lifecycle, and (d) collective supply chain adoption capabilities. A framework is proposed to support organizations selection of BIM usage strategies that meet their project requirements. Case studies are being conducted to develop the framework. The results of the preliminary design management case study is presented for contractor led BIM specific to the design and construct procurement strategy.