Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: Example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea

This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

Multiple indicators of ambient and personal ultraviolet radiation exposure and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (United States)

Recent epidemiologic studies have suggested that ultraviolet radiation (UV) may protect against non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), but few, if any, have assessed multiple indicators of ambient and personal UV exposure. Using the US Radiologic Technologists study, we examined the association between NHL and self-reported time outdoors in summer, as well as average year-round and seasonal ambient exposures based on satellite estimates for different age periods, and sun susceptibility in participants who had responded to two questionnaires (1994–1998, 2003–2005) and who were cancer-free as of the earlier questionnaire. Using unconditional logistic regression, we estimated the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals for 64,103 participants with 137 NHL cases. Self-reported time outdoors in summer was unrelated to risk. Lower risk was somewhat related to higher average year-round and winter ambient exposure for the period closest in time, and prior to, diagnosis (ages 20–39). Relative to 1.0 for the lowest quartile of average year-round ambient UV, the estimated OR for successively higher quartiles was 0.68 (0.42–1.10); 0.82 (0.52–1.29); and 0.64 (0.40–1.03), p-trend = 0.06), for this age period. The lower NHL risk associated with higher year-round average and winter ambient UV provides modest additional support for a protective relationship between UV and NHL.

The role of cardiopulmonary signals in the dynamics of the eye's wavefront aberrations

Abstract—The role of cardiopulmonary signals in the dynamics of wavefront aberrations in the eye has been examined. Synchronous measurement of the eye’s wavefront aberrations, cardiac function, blood pulse, and respiration signals were taken for a group of young, healthy subjects. Two focusing stimuli, three breathing patterns, as well as natural and cycloplegic eye conditions were examined. A set of tools, including time–frequency coherence and its metrics, has been proposed to acquire a detailed picture of the interactions of the cardiopulmonary system with the eye’s wavefront aberrations. The results showed that the coherence of the blood pulse and its harmonics with the eye’s aberrations was, on average, weak (0.4 ± 0.15), while the coherence of the respiration signal with eye’s aberrations was, on average, moderate (0.53 ± 0.14). It was also revealed that there were significant intervals during which high coherence occurred. On average, the coherence was high (>0.75) during 16% of the recorded time, for the blood pulse, and 34% of the time for the respiration signal. A statistically significant decrease in average coherence was noted for the eye’s aberrations with respiration in the case of fast controlled breathing (0.5 Hz). The coherence between the blood pulse and the defocus was significantly larger for the far target than for the near target condition. After cycloplegia, the coherence of defocus with the blood pulse significantly decreased, while this was not the case for the other aberrations. There was also a noticeable, but not statistically significant, increase in the coherence of the comatic term and respiration in that case. By using nonstationary measures of signal coherence, a more detailed picture of interactions between the cardiopulmonary signals and eye’s wavefront aberrations has emerged.

Derivation of motor vehicle tailpipe particle emission factors suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions and air quality assessments

Background, aim, and scope Urban motor vehicle fleets are a major source of particulate matter pollution, especially of ultrafine particles (diameters < 0.1 µm), and exposure to particulate matter has known serious health effects. A considerable body of literature is available on vehicle particle emission factors derived using a wide range of different measurement methods for different particle sizes, conducted in different parts of the world. Therefore the choice as to which are the most suitable particle emission factors to use in transport modelling and health impact assessments presented as a very difficult task. The aim of this study was to derive a comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors for different vehicle and road type combinations, covering the full size range of particles emitted, which are suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions. Materials and methods A large body of data available in the international literature on particle emission factors for motor vehicles derived from measurement studies was compiled and subjected to advanced statistical analysis, to determine the most suitable emission factors to use in modelling urban fleet emissions. Results This analysis resulted in the development of five statistical models which explained 86%, 93%, 87%, 65% and 47% of the variation in published emission factors for particle number, particle volume, PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 respectively. A sixth model for total particle mass was proposed but no significant explanatory variables were identified in the analysis. From the outputs of these statistical models, the most suitable particle emission factors were selected. This selection was based on examination of the statistical robustness of the statistical model outputs, including consideration of conservative average particle emission factors with the lowest standard errors, narrowest 95% confidence intervals and largest sample sizes, and the explanatory model variables, which were Vehicle Type (all particle metrics), Instrumentation (particle number and PM2.5), Road Type (PM10) and Size Range Measured and Speed Limit on the Road (particle volume). Discussion A multiplicity of factors need to be considered in determining emission factors that are suitable for modelling motor vehicle emissions, and this study derived a set of average emission factors suitable for quantifying motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions in developed countries. Conclusions The comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors presented in this study for different vehicle and road type combinations enable the full size range of particles generated by fleets to be quantified, including ultrafine particles (measured in terms of particle number). These emission factors have particular application for regions which may have a lack of funding to undertake measurements, or insufficient measurement data upon which to derive emission factors for their region. Recommendations and perspectives In urban areas motor vehicles continue to be a major source of particulate matter pollution and of ultrafine particles. It is critical that in order to manage this major pollution source methods are available to quantify the full size range of particles emitted for traffic modelling and health impact assessments.

Lifestyle factors associated concurrently and prospectively with co-morbid cardiovascular disease in a population-based cohort of colorectal cancer survivors

Aims To assess self-reported lifetime prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among colorectal cancer survivors, and examine the cross-sectional and prospective associations of lifestyle factors with co-morbid CVD. Methods Colorectal cancer survivors were recruited (n = 1966). Data were collected at approximately 5, 12, 24 and 36 months post-diagnosis. Cross-sectional findings included six CVD categories (hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, kidney disease and ischaemic heart disease (IHD)) at 5 months post-diagnosis. Longitudinal outcomes included the probability of developing (de novo) co-morbid CVD by 36 months post-diagnosis. Lifestyle factors included body mass index, physical activity, television (TV) viewing, alcohol consumption and smoking. Results Co-morbid CVD prevalence at 5 months post-diagnosis was 59%, and 16% of participants with no known CVD at the baseline reported de novo CVD by 36 months. Obesity at the baseline predicted de novo hypertension (odds ratio [OR] = 2.20, 95% confidence intervals [CI] = 1.09, 4.45) and de novo diabetes (OR = 6.55, 95% CI = 2.19, 19.53). Participants watching >4 h of TV/d at the baseline (compared with <2 h/d) were more likely to develop ischaemic heart disease by 36 months (OR = 5.51, 95% CI = 1.86, 16.34). Conclusion Overweight colorectal cancer survivors were more likely to suffer from co-morbid CVD. Interventions focusing on weight management and other modifiable lifestyle factors may reduce functional decline and improve survival.

Adapting to the work-life interface : the influence of individual differences, work and family on well-being, mental health and work engagement

Bronfenbrenner.s Bioecological Model, expressed as the developmental equation, D f PPCT, is the theoretical framework for two studies that bring together diverse strands of psychology to study the work-life interface of working adults. Occupational and organizational psychology is focused on the demands and resources of work and family, without emphasising the individual in detail. Health and personality psychology examine the individual but without emphasis on the individual.s work and family roles. The current research used Bronfenbrenner.s theoretical framework to combine individual differences, work and family to understand how these factors influence the working adult.s psychological functioning. Competent development has been defined as high well-being (measured as life satisfaction and psychological well-being) and high work engagement (as work vigour, work dedication and absorption in work) and as the absence of mental illness (as depression, anxiety and stress) and the absence of burnout (as emotional exhaustion, cynicism and professional efficacy). Study 1 and 2 were linked, with Study 1 as a cross-sectional survey and Study 2, a prospective panel study that followed on from the data used in Study1. Participants were recruited from a university and from a large public hospital to take part in a 3-wave, online study where they completed identical surveys at 3-4 month intervals (N = 470 at Time 1 and N = 198 at Time 3). In Study 1, hierarchical multiple regressions were used to assess the effects of individual differences (Block 1, e.g. dispositional optimism, coping self-efficacy, perceived control of time, humour), work and family variables (Block 2, e.g. affective commitment, skill discretion, work hours, children, marital status, family demands) and the work-life interface (Block 3, e.g. direction and quality of spillover between roles, work-life balance) on the outcomes. There were a mosaic of predictors of the outcomes with a group of seven that were the most frequent significant predictors and which represented the individual (dispositional optimism and coping self-efficacy), the workplace (skill discretion, affective commitment and job autonomy) and the work-life interface (negative work-to-family spillover and negative family-to-work spillover). Interestingly, gender and working hours were not important predictors. The effects of job social support, generally and for work-life issues, perceived control of time and egalitarian gender roles on the outcomes were mediated by negative work-to-family spillover, particularly for emotional exhaustion. Further, the effect of negative spillover on depression, anxiety and work engagement was moderated by the individual.s personal and workplace resources. Study 2 modelled the longitudinal relationships between the group of the seven most frequent predictors and the outcomes. Using a set of non-nested models, the relative influences of concurrent functioning, stability and change over time were assessed. The modelling began with models at Time 1, which formed the basis for confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to establish the underlying relationships between the variables and calculate the composite variables for the longitudinal models. The CFAs were well fitting with few modifications to ensure good fit. However, using burnout and work engagement together required additional analyses to resolve poor fit, with one factor (representing a continuum from burnout to work engagement) being the only acceptable solution. Five different longitudinal models were investigated as the Well-Being, Mental Distress, Well-Being-Mental Health, Work Engagement and Integrated models using differing combinations of the outcomes. The best fitting model for each was a reciprocal model that was trimmed of trivial paths. The strongest paths were the synchronous correlations and the paths within variables over time. The reciprocal paths were more variable with weak to mild effects. There was evidence of gain and loss spirals between the variables over time, with a slight net gain in resources that may provide the mechanism for the accumulation of psychological advantage over a lifetime. The longitudinal models also showed that there are leverage points at which personal, psychological and managerial interventions can be targeted to bolster the individual and provide supportive workplace conditions that also minimise negative spillover. Bronfenbrenner.s developmental equation has been a useful framework for the current research, showing the importance of the person as central to the individual.s experience of the work-life interface. By taking control of their own life, the individual can craft a life path that is most suited to their own needs. Competent developmental outcomes were most likely where the person was optimistic and had high self-efficacy, worked in a job that they were attached to and which allowed them to use their talents and without too much negative spillover between their work and family domains. In this way, individuals had greater well-being, better mental health and greater work engagement at any one time and across time.

Repeatability of measuring corneal subbasal nerve fiber length in individuals with Type 2 Diabetes

Purpose: To analyze the repeatability of measuring nerve fiber length (NFL) from images of the human corneal subbasal nerve plexus using semiautomated software. Methods: Images were captured from the corneas of 50 subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus who showed varying severity of neuropathy, using the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph 3 with Rostock Corneal Module. Semiautomated nerve analysis software was independently used by two observers to determine NFL from images of the subbasal nerve plexus. This procedure was undertaken on two occasions, 3 days apart. Results: The intraclass correlation coefficient values were 0.95 (95% confidence intervals: 0.92–0.97) for individual subjects and 0.95 (95% confidence intervals: 0.74–1.00) for observer. Bland-Altman plots of the NFL values indicated a reduced spread of data with lower NFL values. The overall spread of data was less for (a) the observer who was more experienced at analyzing nerve fiber images and (b) the second measurement occasion. Conclusions: Semiautomated measurement of NFL in the subbasal nerve fiber layer is highly repeatable. Repeatability can be enhanced by using more experienced observers. It may be possible to markedly improve repeatability when measuring this anatomic structure using fully automated image analysis software.

Longitudinal investigation of wandering behavior in department of veterans affairs nursing home care units

Objectives To explore the extent of and factors associated with male residents who change wandering status post nursing home admission. Design Longitudinal design with secondary data analyses. Admissions over a 4-year period were examined using repeat assessments with the Minimum Data Set (MDS) to formulate a model understanding the development of wandering behavior. Setting One hundred thirty-four Veterans Administration (VA) nursing homes throughout the United States. Participants: Included 6673 residents admitted to VA nursing homes between October 2000 and October 2004. Measurements MDS variables (cognitive impairment, mood, behavior problems, activities of daily living and wandering) included ratings recorded at residents’ admission to the nursing home and a minimum of two other time points at quarterly intervals. Results The majority (86%) of the sample were classified as non wanderers at admission and most of these (94%) remained non wanderers until discharge or the end of the study. Fifty one per cent of the wanderers changed status to non wanderers with 6% of these residents fluctuating in status more than two times. Admission variables associated with an increased risk of changing status from non-wandering to wandering included older age, greater cognitive impairment, more socially inappropriate behavior, resisting care, easier distractibility, and needing less help with personal hygiene. Requiring assistance with locomotion and having three or more medical comorbidities were associated with a decreased chance of changing from non-wandering to wandering status. Conclusion A resident’s change from non-wandering to wandering status may reflect an undetected medical event that affects cognition, but spares mobility.

The delta-phase spectrum with application to voice activity detection and speaker recognition

For several reasons, the Fourier phase domain is less favored than the magnitude domain in signal processing and modeling of speech. To correctly analyze the phase, several factors must be considered and compensated, including the effect of the step size, windowing function and other processing parameters. Building on a review of these factors, this paper investigates a spectral representation based on the Instantaneous Frequency Deviation, but in which the step size between processing frames is used in calculating phase changes, rather than the traditional single sample interval. Reflecting these longer intervals, the term delta-phase spectrum is used to distinguish this from instantaneous derivatives. Experiments show that mel-frequency cepstral coefficients features derived from the delta-phase spectrum (termed Mel-Frequency delta-phase features) can produce broadly similar performance to equivalent magnitude domain features for both voice activity detection and speaker recognition tasks. Further, it is shown that the fusion of the magnitude and phase representations yields performance benefits over either in isolation.

The largest volcanic eruptions on Earth

Large igneous provinces (LIPs) are sites of the most frequently recurring, largest volume basaltic and silicic eruptions in Earth history. These large-volume (N1000 km3 dense rock equivalent) and large-magnitude (NM8) eruptions produce areally extensive (104–105 km2) basaltic lava flow fields and silicic ignimbrites that are the main building blocks of LIPs. Available information on the largest eruptive units are primarily from the Columbia River and Deccan provinces for the dimensions of flood basalt eruptions, and the Paraná–Etendeka and Afro-Arabian provinces for the silicic ignimbrite eruptions. In addition, three large-volume (675– 2000 km3) silicic lava flows have also been mapped out in the Proterozoic Gawler Range province (Australia), an interpreted LIP remnant. Magma volumes of N1000 km3 have also been emplaced as high-level basaltic and rhyolitic sills in LIPs. The data sets indicate comparable eruption magnitudes between the basaltic and silicic eruptions, but due to considerable volumes residing as co-ignimbrite ash deposits, the current volume constraints for the silicic ignimbrite eruptions may be considerably underestimated. Magma composition thus appears to be no barrier to the volume of magma emitted during an individual eruption. Despite this general similarity in magnitude, flood basaltic and silicic eruptions are very different in terms of eruption style, duration, intensity, vent configuration, and emplacement style. Flood basaltic eruptions are dominantly effusive and Hawaiian–Strombolian in style, with magma discharge rates of ~106–108 kg s−1 and eruption durations estimated at years to tens of years that emplace dominantly compound pahoehoe lava flow fields. Effusive and fissural eruptions have also emplaced some large-volume silicic lavas, but discharge rates are unknown, and may be up to an order of magnitude greater than those of flood basalt lava eruptions for emplacement to be on realistic time scales (b10 years). Most silicic eruptions, however, are moderately to highly explosive, producing co-current pyroclastic fountains (rarely Plinian) with discharge rates of 109– 1011 kg s−1 that emplace welded to rheomorphic ignimbrites. At present, durations for the large-magnitude silicic eruptions are unconstrained; at discharge rates of 109 kg s−1, equivalent to the peak of the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption, the largest silicic eruptions would take many months to evacuate N5000 km3 of magma. The generally simple deposit structure is more suggestive of short-duration (hours to days) and high intensity (~1011 kg s−1) eruptions, perhaps with hiatuses in some cases. These extreme discharge rates would be facilitated by multiple point, fissure and/or ring fracture venting of magma. Eruption frequencies are much elevated for large-magnitude eruptions of both magma types during LIP-forming episodes. However, in basaltdominated provinces (continental and ocean basin flood basalt provinces, oceanic plateaus, volcanic rifted margins), large magnitude (NM8) basaltic eruptions have much shorter recurrence intervals of 103–104 years, whereas similar magnitude silicic eruptions may have recurrence intervals of up to 105 years. The Paraná– Etendeka province was the site of at least nine NM8 silicic eruptions over an ~1 Myr period at ~132 Ma; a similar eruption frequency, although with a fewer number of silicic eruptions is also observed for the Afro- Arabian Province. The huge volumes of basaltic and silicic magma erupted in quick succession during LIP events raises several unresolved issues in terms of locus of magma generation and storage (if any) in the crust prior to eruption, and paths and rates of ascent from magma reservoirs to the surface.

Low intensity CBT by mail

Introduction: There are many low intensity (LI) cognitive behavoural therapy (CBT) solutions to the problem of limited service access. In this chapter, we aim to discuss a relatively low-technology approach to access using standard postal services-CBT by mail, or M-CBT. Bibliotherapies including M-CBT teach key concepts and self-management techniques, together with screening tools and forms to structure home practice. M-CBT differs from other bibliotherapies by segmenting interventions and mailing them at regular intervals. Most involve participants returning copies of monitoring forms or completed handouts. Therapist feedback is provided, often in personal letters that accompany the printed materials. Participants may also be given access to telephone or email support. ----- ----- M-CBT clearly fulfills criteria for an LI CBT (see Bennett-Levy et al., Chapter 1, for a definition of LI interventions). Once written, they involve little therapist time and rely heavily on self-management. However, content and overall treatment duration need not be compromised. Long-term interventions with multiple components can be delivered via this method, provided their content can be communicated in letters and engagement is maintained.

Bayesian network for risk of diarrhea associated with the use of recycled water

Estimating potential health risks associated with recycled (reused) water is highly complex given the multiple factors affecting water quality. We take a conceptual model, which represents the factors and pathways by which recycled water may pose a risk of contracting gastroenteritis, convert the conceptual model to a Bayesian net, and quantify the model using one expert’s opinion. This allows us to make various predictions as to the risks posed under various scenarios. Bayesian nets provide an additional way of modeling the determinants of recycled water quality and elucidating their relative influence on a given disease outcome. The important contribution to Bayesian net methodology is that all model predictions, whether risk or relative risk estimates, are expressed as credible intervals.

Digital image processing techniques for pavement macro-texture analysis

Road surface macro-texture is an indicator used to determine the skid resistance levels in pavements. Existing methods of quantifying macro-texture include the sand patch test and the laser profilometer. These methods utilise the 3D information of the pavement surface to extract the average texture depth. Recently, interest in image processing techniques as a quantifier of macro-texture has arisen, mainly using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). This paper reviews the FFT method, and then proposes two new methods, one using the autocorrelation function and the other using wavelets. The methods are tested on pictures obtained from a pavement surface extending more than 2km's. About 200 images were acquired from the surface at approx. 10m intervals from a height 80cm above ground. The results obtained from image analysis methods using the FFT, the autocorrelation function and wavelets are compared with sensor measured texture depth (SMTD) data obtained from the same paved surface. The results indicate that coefficients of determination (R2) exceeding 0.8 are obtained when up to 10% of outliers are removed.

The circadian response of intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells

Intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells (ipRGC) signal environmental light level to the central circadian clock and contribute to the pupil light reflex. It is unknown if ipRGC activity is subject to extrinsic (central) or intrinsic (retinal) network-mediated circadian modulation during light entrainment and phase shifting. Eleven younger persons (18–30 years) with no ophthalmological, medical or sleep disorders participated. The activity of the inner (ipRGC) and outer retina (cone photoreceptors) was assessed hourly using the pupil light reflex during a 24 h period of constant environmental illumination (10 lux). Exogenous circadian cues of activity, sleep, posture, caffeine, ambient temperature, caloric intake and ambient illumination were controlled. Dim-light melatonin onset (DLMO) was determined from salivary melatonin assay at hourly intervals, and participant melatonin onset values were set to 14 h to adjust clock time to circadian time. Here we demonstrate in humans that the ipRGC controlled post-illumination pupil response has a circadian rhythm independent of external light cues. This circadian variation precedes melatonin onset and the minimum ipRGC driven pupil response occurs post melatonin onset. Outer retinal photoreceptor contributions to the inner retinal ipRGC driven post-illumination pupil response also show circadian variation whereas direct outer retinal cone inputs to the pupil light reflex do not, indicating that intrinsically photosensitive (melanopsin) retinal ganglion cells mediate this circadian variation.

Validation and automation of the DYNJAWS component module of the BEAMnrc Monte Carlo code

The purpose of this work is to validate and automate the use of DYNJAWS; a new component module (CM) in the BEAMnrc Monte Carlo (MC) user code. The DYNJAWS CM simulates dynamic wedges and can be used in three modes; dynamic, step-and-shoot and static. The step-and-shoot and dynamic modes require an additional input file defining the positions of the jaw that constitutes the dynamic wedge, at regular intervals during its motion. A method for automating the generation of the input file is presented which will allow for the more efficient use of the DYNJAWS CM. Wedged profiles have been measured and simulated for 6 and 10 MV photons at three field sizes (5 cm x 5 cm , 10 cm x10 cm and 20 cm x 20 cm), four wedge angles (15, 30, 45 and 60 degrees), at dmax and at 10 cm depth. Results of this study show agreement between the measured and the MC profiles to within 3% of absolute dose or 3 mm distance to agreement for all wedge angles at both energies and depths. The gamma analysis suggests that dynamic mode is more accurate than the step-and-shoot mode. The DYNJAWS CM is an important addition to the BEAMnrc code and will enable the MC verification of patient treatments involving dynamic wedges.