Improving the performance of model-order selection criteria by partial-model selection search

The traditional searching method for model-order selection in linear regression is a nested full-parameters-set searching procedure over the desired orders, which we call full-model order selection. On the other hand, a method for model-selection searches for the best sub-model within each order. In this paper, we propose using the model-selection searching method for model-order selection, which we call partial-model order selection. We show by simulations that the proposed searching method gives better accuracies than the traditional one, especially for low signal-to-noise ratios over a wide range of model-order selection criteria (both information theoretic based and bootstrap-based). Also, we show that for some models the performance of the bootstrap-based criterion improves significantly by using the proposed partial-model selection searching method. Index Terms— Model order estimation, model selection, information theoretic criteria, bootstrap 1. INTRODUCTION Several model-order selection criteria can be applied to find the optimal order. Some of the more commonly used information theoretic-based procedures include Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) [1], corrected Akaike (AICc) [2], minimum description length (MDL) [3], normalized maximum likelihood (NML) [4], Hannan-Quinn criterion (HQC) [5], conditional model-order estimation (CME) [6], and the efficient detection criterion (EDC) [7]. From a practical point of view, it is difficult to decide which model order selection criterion to use. Many of them perform reasonably well when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high. The discrepancies in their performance, however, become more evident when the SNR is low. In those situations, the performance of the given technique is not only determined by the model structure (say a polynomial trend versus a Fourier series) but, more importantly, by the relative values of the parameters within the model. This makes the comparison between the model-order selection algorithms difficult as within the same model with a given order one could find an example for which one of the methods performs favourably well or fails [6, 8]. Our aim is to improve the performance of the model order selection criteria in cases where the SNR is low by considering a model-selection searching procedure that takes into account not only the full-model order search but also a partial model order search within the given model order. Understandably, the improvement in the performance of the model order estimation is at the expense of additional computational complexity.

Serious fears across cultures about the collapse of the world order

This chapter approaches resilience from an evolutionary psychology (socio-biological) perspective. It argues that the internal constitution and mental toughness of the individual will provide a core protection for life’s inevitable tests in the innumerable micro and macro environments humans find themselves. The many descriptors of the construct of resilience used in various studies are explored. Finally, the difference psychologists can make in the therapy of clients whose resilience is being tested, is examined by means of case examples.

Numerical analysis of the time variable fractional order mobile-immobile advection-dispersion model

Many physical processes exhibit fractional order behavior that varies with time or space. The continuum of order in the fractional calculus allows the order of the fractional operator to be considered as a variable. In this paper, we consider the time variable fractional order mobile-immobile advection-dispersion model. Numerical methods and analyses of stability and convergence for the fractional partial differential equations are quite limited and difficult to derive. This motivates us to develop efficient numerical methods as well as stability and convergence of the implicit numerical methods for the fractional order mobile immobile advection-dispersion model. In the paper, we use the Coimbra variable time fractional derivative which is more efficient from the numerical standpoint and is preferable for modeling dynamical systems. An implicit Euler approximation for the equation is proposed and then the stability of the approximation are investigated. As for the convergence of the numerical scheme we only consider a special case, i.e. the time fractional derivative is independent of time variable t. The case where the time fractional derivative depends both the time variable t and the space variable x will be considered in the future work. Finally, numerical examples are provided to show that the implicit Euler approximation is computationally efficient.

Empirical analysis of the effect of dimension reduction and word order on semantic vectors

The aim of this paper is to provide a comparison of various algorithms and parameters to build reduced semantic spaces. The effect of dimension reduction, the stability of the representation and the effect of word order are examined in the context of the five algorithms bearing on semantic vectors: Random projection (RP), singular value decom- position (SVD), non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), permutations and holographic reduced representations (HRR). The quality of semantic representation was tested by means of synonym finding task using the TOEFL test on the TASA corpus. Dimension reduction was found to improve the quality of semantic representation but it is hard to find the optimal parameter settings. Even though dimension reduction by RP was found to be more generally applicable than SVD, the semantic vectors produced by RP are somewhat unstable. The effect of encoding word order into the semantic vector representation via HRR did not lead to any increase in scores over vectors constructed from word co-occurrence in context information. In this regard, very small context windows resulted in better semantic vectors for the TOEFL test.

Disclosure obligations on ex parte application for freezing order - duty of practitioners to the court - failure to comply with duty - serious dereliction of duty to court - supplemental order for costs against solicitors personally

The decision of Applegarth J in Heartwood Architectural & Joinery Pty Ltd v Redchip Lawyers [2009] QSC 195 (27 July 2009) involved a costs order against solicitors personally. This decision is but one of several recent decisions in which the court has been persuaded that the circumstances justified costs orders against legal practitioners on the indemnity basis. These decisions serve as a reminder to practitioners of their disclosure obligations when seeking any interlocutory relief in an ex parte application. These obligations are now clearly set out in r 14.4 of the Legal Profession (Solicitors) Rule 2007 and r 25 of 2007 Barristers Rule. Inexperience or ignorance will not excuse breaches of the duties owed to the court.

Numerical methods of the variable-order Rayleigh-Stokes problem for a heated generalized second grade fluid with fractional derivative

Rayleigh–Stokes problems have in recent years received much attention due to their importance in physics. In this article, we focus on the variable-order Rayleigh–Stokes problem for a heated generalized second grade fluid with fractional derivative. Implicit and explicit numerical methods are developed to solve the problem. The convergence, stability of the numerical methods and solvability of the implicit numerical method are discussed via Fourier analysis. Moreover, a numerical example is given and the results support the effectiveness of the theoretical analysis.

Populism, law and order and the crimes of the 1%

The article examines the evidence of endemic financial crime in the global financial crisis (GFC), the legal impunity surrounding these crimes and the popular revolt against these abuses in the financial, political and legal systems. This is set against a consideration of the development since the 1970s of a conservative politics championing de-regulation, unfettered markets, welfare cuts and harsh law and order policies. On the one hand, this led to massively increased inequality and concentrations of wealth and political power in the hands of the super-rich, effectively placing them above the law, as the GFC revealed. On the other, a greatly enlarged, more punitive criminal justice system was directed at poor and minority communities. Explanations in terms of the rise of penal populism are helpful in explaining these developments, but it is argued they adopt a limited and reductionist view of populism, failing to see the prospects for a progressive populist politics to re-direct political attention to issues of inequality and corporate and white collar criminality.

The velocity synchronous discrete Fourier transform for order tracking in the field of rotating machinery

Diagnostics of rotating machinery has developed significantly in the last decades, and industrial applications are spreading in different sectors. Most applications are characterized by varying velocities of the shaft and in many cases transients are the most critical to monitor. In these variable speed conditions, fault symptoms are clearer in the angular/order domains than in the common time/frequency ones. In the past, this issue was often solved by synchronously sampling data by means of phase locked circuits governing the acquisition; however, thanks to the spread of cheap and powerful microprocessors, this procedure is nowadays rarer; sampling is usually performed at constant time intervals, and the conversion to the order domain is made by means of digital signal processing techniques. In the last decades different algorithms have been proposed for the extraction of an order spectrum from a signal sampled asynchronously with respect to the shaft rotational velocity; many of them (the so called computed order tracking family) use interpolation techniques to resample the signal at constant angular increments, followed by a common discrete Fourier transform to shift from the angular domain to the order domain. A less exploited family of techniques shifts directly from the time domain to the order spectrum, by means of modified Fourier transforms. This paper proposes a new transform, named velocity synchronous discrete Fourier transform, which takes advantage of the instantaneous velocity to improve the quality of its result, reaching performances that can challenge the computed order tracking.

Testing second order cyclostationarity in the squared envelope spectrum of non-white vibration signals

Cyclostationary models for the diagnostic signals measured on faulty rotating machineries have proved to be successful in many laboratory tests and industrial applications. The squared envelope spectrum has been pointed out as the most efficient indicator for the assessment of second order cyclostationary symptoms of damages, which are typical, for instance, of rolling element bearing faults. In an attempt to foster the spread of rotating machinery diagnostics, the current trend in the field is to reach higher levels of automation of the condition monitoring systems. For this purpose, statistical tests for the presence of cyclostationarity have been proposed during the last years. The statistical thresholds proposed in the past for the identification of cyclostationary components have been obtained under the hypothesis of having a white noise signal when the component is healthy. This need, coupled with the non-white nature of the real signals implies the necessity of pre-whitening or filtering the signal in optimal narrow-bands, increasing the complexity of the algorithm and the risk of losing diagnostic information or introducing biases on the result. In this paper, the authors introduce an original analytical derivation of the statistical tests for cyclostationarity in the squared envelope spectrum, dropping the hypothesis of white noise from the beginning. The effect of first order and second order cyclostationary components on the distribution of the squared envelope spectrum will be quantified and the effectiveness of the newly proposed threshold verified, providing a sound theoretical basis and a practical starting point for efficient automated diagnostics of machine components such as rolling element bearings. The analytical results will be verified by means of numerical simulations and by using experimental vibration data of rolling element bearings.

The return of the mail-order bridegroom

Co-producer of this contemporary music album.

Nonlinear analysis for the pre- and post-yield behaviour of a hybrid structure by a higher-order element with the refined plastic hinge approach

Efficient and accurate geometric and material nonlinear analysis of the structures under ultimate loads is a backbone to the success of integrated analysis and design, performance-based design approach and progressive collapse analysis. This paper presents the advanced computational technique of a higher-order element formulation with the refined plastic hinge approach which can evaluate the concrete and steel-concrete structure prone to the nonlinear material effects (i.e. gradual yielding, full plasticity, strain-hardening effect when subjected to the interaction between axial and bending actions, and load redistribution) as well as the nonlinear geometric effects (i.e. second-order P-d effect and P-D effect, its associate strength and stiffness degradation). Further, this paper also presents the cross-section analysis useful to formulate the refined plastic hinge approach.

On the order of the fractional Laplacian in determining the spatio-temporal evolution of a space-fractional model of cardiac electrophysiology

Space-fractional operators have been used with success in a variety of practical applications to describe transport processes in media characterised by spatial connectivity properties and high structural heterogeneity altering the classical laws of diffusion. This study provides a systematic investigation of the spatio-temporal effects of a space-fractional model in cardiac electrophysiology. We consider a simplified model of electrical pulse propagation through cardiac tissue, namely the monodomain formulation of the Beeler-Reuter cell model on insulated tissue fibres, and obtain a space-fractional modification of the model by using the spectral definition of the one-dimensional continuous fractional Laplacian. The spectral decomposition of the fractional operator allows us to develop an efficient numerical method for the space-fractional problem. Particular attention is paid to the role played by the fractional operator in determining the solution behaviour and to the identification of crucial differences between the non-fractional and the fractional cases. We find a positive linear dependence of the depolarization peak height and a power law decay of notch and dome peak amplitudes for decreasing orders of the fractional operator. Furthermore, we establish a quadratic relationship in conduction velocity, and quantify the increasingly wider action potential foot and more pronounced dispersion of action potential duration, as the fractional order is decreased. A discussion of the physiological interpretation of the presented findings is made.