Development of lifetime warranty policies and models for estimating costs

In today's fiercely competitive products market, product warranty has started playing an important role. The warranty period offered by the manufacturer/dealer has been progressively increasing since the beginning of the 20th Century. Currently, a large number of products are being sold with long-term warranty policies in the form of extended warranty, warranty for used products, service contracts and lifetime warranty policies. Lifetime warranties are relatively a new concept. The modelling of failures during the warranty period and the costs for such policies are complex since the lifespan in these policies are not defined well and it is often difficult to tell about life measures for the longer period of coverage due to usage pattern/maintenance activities undertaken and uncertainties of costs over the period. This paper focuses on defining lifetime, developing lifetime warranty policies and models for predicting failures and estimating costs for lifetime warranty policies.

Towards a reference model for SOA governance (extended version)

Although the lack of elaborate governance mechanisms is often seen as the main reason for failures of SOA projects, SOA governance is still very low in maturity. In this paper, we follow a design science approach to address this drawback by presenting a framework that can guide organisations in implementing a governance approach for SOA more successfully. We have reviewed the highly advanced IT governance frameworks Cobit and ITIL and mapped them to the SOA domain. The resulting blueprint for an SOA governance framework was refined based on a detailed literature review, expert interviews and a practical application in a government organisation. The proposed framework stresses the need for business representatives to get involved in SOA decisions and to define benefits ownership for services.

A practical approach for reliability prediction of pipeline systems

Pipelines play an important role in the modern society. Failures of pipelines can have great impacts on economy, environment and community. Preventive maintenance (PM) is often conducted to improve the reliability of pipelines. Modern asset management practice requires accurate predictability of the reliability of pipelines with multiple PM actions, especially when these PM actions involve imperfect repairs. To address this issue, a split system approach (SSA) based model is developed in this paper through an industrial case study. This new model enables maintenance personnel to predict the reliability of pipelines with different PM strategies and hence effectively assists them in making optimal PM decisions.

Failure analysis of engineering systems with preventive maintenance and failure interactions

Optimal operation and maintenance of engineering systems heavily rely on the accurate prediction of their failures. Most engineering systems, especially mechanical systems, are susceptible to failure interactions. These failure interactions can be estimated for repairable engineering systems when determining optimal maintenance strategies for these systems. An extended Split System Approach is developed in this paper. The technique is based on the Split System Approach and a model for interactive failures. The approach was applied to simulated data. The results indicate that failure interactions will increase the hazard of newly repaired components. The intervals of preventive maintenance actions of a system with failure interactions, will become shorter compared with scenarios where failure interactions do not exist.

Behavioural biases and information disclosure laws relating to residential property sales : narrowing the gap between existing laws and calls for future reforms

Market failures involving the sale of complex merchandise, such as residential property, financial products and credit, have principally been attributed to information asymmetries. Existing legislative and regulatory responses were developed having regard to consumer protection policies based on traditional economic theories that focus on the notion of the ‘rational consumer’. Governmental responses therefore seek to impose disclosure obligations on sellers of complex goods or products to ensure that consumers have sufficient information upon which to make a decision. Emergent research, based on behavioural economics, challenges traditional ideas and instead focuses on the actual behaviour of consumers. This approach suggests that consumers as a whole do not necessarily benefit from mandatory disclosure because some, if not most, consumers do not pay attention to the disclosed information before they make a decision to purchase. The need for consumer policies to take consumer characteristics and behaviour into account is being increasingly recognised by governments, and most recently in the policy framework suggested by the Australian Productivity Commission

A new approach to assessing Malaysian contractor satisfaction levels

The extent of poor project outcomes is a recurring issue for construction industries worldwide. One of the main causes of these and project failure seems to be the inability of contractors to provide a high level of service quality to the project team. In Malaysia, design failures have also been identified as a further contributory factor. To overcome this, different types of subjective performance measurement have been progressively developed. These approaches are typically concerned with client satisfaction, customer satisfaction, home buyer satisfaction and occupant satisfaction, but very seldom consider contractor satisfaction. This paper examines the implications of this, and what is involved in developing satisfaction measures based on contractor perception instead of the typical sole concern with client performance. As a result, other attributes such as participants’ performance, business performance, project performance, external factors and contractor characteristics are also examined. Several potential attributes are derived from interviews among Malaysian contractors, namely: performance (direct attributes) and contractor characteristics (indirect attributes) that possibly influence contractor satisfaction levels. These attributes are then developed to improve the existing conceptual framework. The developed framework is expected to help the project team in performing projects more efficiently, maintaining service quality and improving relationships between participants. In addition, the findings of the paper should assist contractors enhance competitiveness, improve their image and create more job opportunities in the future.

If it's encrypted it's secure! The viability of US state-based encryption exemptions

US state-based data breach notification laws have unveiled serious corporate and government failures regarding the security of personal information. These laws require organisations to notify persons who may be affected by an unauthorized acquisition of their personal information. Safe harbours to notification exist if personal information is encrypted. Three types of safe harbour have been identified in the literature: exemptions, rebuttable presumptions and factors. The underlying assumption of exemptions is that encrypted personal information is secure and therefore unauthorized access does not pose a risk. However, the viability of this assumption is questionable when examined against data breaches involving encrypted information and the demanding practical requirements of effective encryption management. Recent recommendations by the Australian Law Reform Commission (ALRC) would amend the Privacy Act 1988 (Cth) to implement a data breach scheme that includes a different type of safe harbour, factor based analysis. The authors examine the potential capability of the ALRC’s proposed encryption safe harbour in relation to the US experience at the state legislature level.

Meniscal repair in the elite athlete : results of 45 repairs with a minimum 5-year follow-up

Background The preservation of meniscal tissue is important to protect joint surfaces. Purpose We have an aggressive approach to meniscal repair, including repairing tears other than those classically suited to repair. Here we present the medium- to long-term outcome of meniscal repair (inside-out) in elite athletes. Study Design Case series; Level of evidence, 4. Methods Forty-two elite athletes underwent 45 meniscal repairs. All repairs were performed using an arthroscopically assisted inside-out technique. Eighty-three percent of these athletes had ACL reconstruction at the same time. Patients returned a completed questionnaire (including Lysholm and International Knee Documentation Committee [IKDC] scores). Mean follow-up was 8.5 years. Failure was defined by patients developing symptoms of joint line pain and/or locking or swelling requiring repeat arthroscopy and partial meniscectomy. Results The average Lysholm and subjective IKDC scores were 89.6 and 85.4, respectively. Eighty-one percent of patients returned to their main sport and most to a similar level at a mean time of 10.4 months after repair, reflecting the high level of ACL reconstruction in this group. We identified 11 definite failures, 10 medial and 1 lateral meniscus, that required excision; this represents a 24% failure rate. We identified 1 further patient who had possible failed repairs, giving a worst-case failure rate of 26.7% at a mean of 42 months after surgery. However, 7 of these failures were associated with a further injury. Therefore, the atraumatic failure rate was 11%. Age and size and location of the tears were not associated with a higher failure rate. Medial meniscal repairs were significantly more likely to fail than lateral meniscal repairs, with a failure rate of 36.4% and 5.6%, respectively (P < .05). Conclusion Meniscal repair and healing are possible, and most elite athletes can return to their preinjury level of activity.

Vulnerability of axially loaded columns subjected to transverse impact loads

Increased industrialisation has brought to the forefront the susceptibility of concrete columns in both buildings and bridges to vehicle impacts. Accurate vulnerability assessments are crucial in the design process due to possible catastrophic nature of the failures that can cause. This paper reports on research undertaken to investigate the impact capacity of the columns of low to medium raised building designed according to Australian Standards. Numerical simulation techniques were used in the process and validation was done by using experimental results published in the literature. The investigation thus far has confirmed that vulnerability of typical columns in five story buildings located in urban areas to medium velocity car impacts and hence these columns need to be re-designed (if possible) or retrofitted. In addition, accuracy of the simplified method presented in EN 1991 to quantify the impact damage was scrutinised. A simplified concept to assess the damage due to all collisions modes was introduced. The research information will be extended to generate a common data base to assess the vulnerability of columns in urban areas against new generation of vehicles.

On collective unintelligence

The idea of collective unintelligence is examined in this paper to highlight some of the conceptual and practical problems faced in modeling groups. Examples drawn from international crises and economics provide illustrative problems of collective failures to act in intelligent ways, despite the inputs and efforts of many skilled and intelligent parties. Choices made of “appropriate” perceptions, analysis and evaluations are examined along with how these might be combined. A simple vector representation illustrates some of the issues and creative possibilities in multi-party actions. Revealed as manifest (un-)intelligence are the resolutions of various problems and potentials that arise in dealing with the “each and all” of a group (wherein items are necessarily non-parallel and of unequal valency). Such issues challenge those seeking to model collective intelligence, but much may be learned.

To err (on the road) is human? An on-road study of driver errors

Human error, its causes and consequences, and the ways in which it can be prevented, remain of great interest to road safety practitioners. This paper presents the findings derived from an on-road study of driver errors in which 25 participants drove a pre-determined route using MUARC's On-Road Test Vehicle (ORTeV). In-vehicle observers recorded the different errors made, and a range of other data was collected, including driver verbal protocols, forward, cockpit and driver video, and vehicle data (speed, braking, steering wheel angle, lane tracking etc). Participants also completed a post trial cognitive task analysis interview. The drivers tested made a range of different errors, with speeding violations, both intentional and unintentional, being the most common. Further more detailed analysis of a sub-set of specific error types indicates that driver errors have various causes, including failures in the wider road 'system' such as poor roadway design, infrastructure failures and unclear road rules. In closing, a range of potential error prevention strategies, including intelligent speed adaptation and road infrastructure design, are discussed.

Structural health monitoring : vibration-based damage detection and condition assessment of bridges

Structural health is a vital aspect of infrastructure sustainability. As a part of a vital infrastructure and transportation network, bridge structures must function safely at all times. However, due to heavier and faster moving vehicular loads and function adjustment, such as Busway accommodation, many bridges are now operating at an overload beyond their design capacity. Additionally, the huge renovation and replacement costs are a difficult burden for infrastructure owners. The structural health monitoring (SHM) systems proposed recently are incorporated with vibration-based damage detection techniques, statistical methods and signal processing techniques and have been regarded as efficient and economical ways to assess bridge condition and foresee probable costly failures. In this chapter, the recent developments in damage detection and condition assessment techniques based on vibration-based damage detection and statistical methods are reviewed. The vibration-based damage detection methods based on changes in natural frequencies, curvature or strain modes, modal strain energy, dynamic flexibility, artificial neural networks, before and after damage, and other signal processing methods such as Wavelet techniques, empirical mode decomposition and Hilbert spectrum methods are discussed in this chapter.

Analysis of distrubances in large interconnected power systems

World economies increasingly demand reliable and economical power supply and distribution. To achieve this aim the majority of power systems are becoming interconnected, with several power utilities supplying the one large network. One problem that occurs in a large interconnected power system is the regular occurrence of system disturbances which can result in the creation of intra-area oscillating modes. These modes can be regarded as the transient responses of the power system to excitation, which are generally characterised as decaying sinusoids. For a power system operating ideally these transient responses would ideally would have a “ring-down” time of 10-15 seconds. Sometimes equipment failures disturb the ideal operation of power systems and oscillating modes with ring-down times greater than 15 seconds arise. The larger settling times associated with such “poorly damped” modes cause substantial power flows between generation nodes, resulting in significant physical stresses on the power distribution system. If these modes are not just poorly damped but “negatively damped”, catastrophic failures of the system can occur. To ensure system stability and security of large power systems, the potentially dangerous oscillating modes generated from disturbances (such as equipment failure) must be quickly identified. The power utility must then apply appropriate damping control strategies. In power system monitoring there exist two facets of critical interest. The first is the estimation of modal parameters for a power system in normal, stable, operation. The second is the rapid detection of any substantial changes to this normal, stable operation (because of equipment breakdown for example). Most work to date has concentrated on the first of these two facets, i.e. on modal parameter estimation. Numerous modal parameter estimation techniques have been proposed and implemented, but all have limitations [1-13]. One of the key limitations of all existing parameter estimation methods is the fact that they require very long data records to provide accurate parameter estimates. This is a particularly significant problem after a sudden detrimental change in damping. One simply cannot afford to wait long enough to collect the large amounts of data required for existing parameter estimators. Motivated by this gap in the current body of knowledge and practice, the research reported in this thesis focuses heavily on rapid detection of changes (i.e. on the second facet mentioned above). This thesis reports on a number of new algorithms which can rapidly flag whether or not there has been a detrimental change to a stable operating system. It will be seen that the new algorithms enable sudden modal changes to be detected within quite short time frames (typically about 1 minute), using data from power systems in normal operation. The new methods reported in this thesis are summarised below. The Energy Based Detector (EBD): The rationale for this method is that the modal disturbance energy is greater for lightly damped modes than it is for heavily damped modes (because the latter decay more rapidly). Sudden changes in modal energy, then, imply sudden changes in modal damping. Because the method relies on data from power systems in normal operation, the modal disturbances are random. Accordingly, the disturbance energy is modelled as a random process (with the parameters of the model being determined from the power system under consideration). A threshold is then set based on the statistical model. The energy method is very simple to implement and is computationally efficient. It is, however, only able to determine whether or not a sudden modal deterioration has occurred; it cannot identify which mode has deteriorated. For this reason the method is particularly well suited to smaller interconnected power systems that involve only a single mode. Optimal Individual Mode Detector (OIMD): As discussed in the previous paragraph, the energy detector can only determine whether or not a change has occurred; it cannot flag which mode is responsible for the deterioration. The OIMD seeks to address this shortcoming. It uses optimal detection theory to test for sudden changes in individual modes. In practice, one can have an OIMD operating for all modes within a system, so that changes in any of the modes can be detected. Like the energy detector, the OIMD is based on a statistical model and a subsequently derived threshold test. The Kalman Innovation Detector (KID): This detector is an alternative to the OIMD. Unlike the OIMD, however, it does not explicitly monitor individual modes. Rather it relies on a key property of a Kalman filter, namely that the Kalman innovation (the difference between the estimated and observed outputs) is white as long as the Kalman filter model is valid. A Kalman filter model is set to represent a particular power system. If some event in the power system (such as equipment failure) causes a sudden change to the power system, the Kalman model will no longer be valid and the innovation will no longer be white. Furthermore, if there is a detrimental system change, the innovation spectrum will display strong peaks in the spectrum at frequency locations associated with changes. Hence the innovation spectrum can be monitored to both set-off an “alarm” when a change occurs and to identify which modal frequency has given rise to the change. The threshold for alarming is based on the simple Chi-Squared PDF for a normalised white noise spectrum [14, 15]. While the method can identify the mode which has deteriorated, it does not necessarily indicate whether there has been a frequency or damping change. The PPM discussed next can monitor frequency changes and so can provide some discrimination in this regard. The Polynomial Phase Method (PPM): In [16] the cubic phase (CP) function was introduced as a tool for revealing frequency related spectral changes. This thesis extends the cubic phase function to a generalised class of polynomial phase functions which can reveal frequency related spectral changes in power systems. A statistical analysis of the technique is performed. When applied to power system analysis, the PPM can provide knowledge of sudden shifts in frequency through both the new frequency estimate and the polynomial phase coefficient information. This knowledge can be then cross-referenced with other detection methods to provide improved detection benchmarks.