Examining the use of bid information in predicting the contractor’s performance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of bid information, including both price and non-price factors in predicting the bidder’s performance. Design/methodology/approach – The practice of the industry was first reviewed. Data on bid evaluation and performance records of the successful bids were then obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department, the largest housing provider in Hong Kong. This was followed by the development of a radial basis function (RBF) neural network based performance prediction model. Findings – It is found that public clients are more conscientious and include non-price factors in their bid evaluation equations. With the input variables used the information is available at the time of the bid and the output variable is the project performance score recorded during work in progress achieved by the successful bidder. It was found that past project performance score is the most sensitive input variable in predicting future performance. Research limitations/implications – The paper shows the inadequacy of using price alone for bid award criterion. The need for a systemic performance evaluation is also highlighted, as this information is highly instrumental for subsequent bid evaluations. The caveat for this study is that the prediction model was developed based on data obtained from one single source. Originality/value – The value of the paper is in the use of an RBF neural network as the prediction tool because it can model non-linear function. This capability avoids tedious ‘‘trial and error’’ in deciding the number of hidden layers to be used in the network model. Keywords Hong Kong, Construction industry, Neural nets, Modelling, Bid offer spreads Paper type Research paper

Diagnosing postpartum depression in mothers and fathers : Whatever happened to anxiety?

Although anxiety disorders are documented in the literature for new mothers (but less so for fathers), rates of postpartum caseness tend to include only those with depression when diagnostic interviews or self-report measures validated on such interviews are used. This methodology therefore underestimates the true percentage of women and men who experience significant psychological difficulties postpartum. This has implications for assessment, treatment and screening for postnatal mood disorders. Two studies were conducted on a total of 408 women and 356 men expecting their first child. They were recruited antenatally, and interviewed at 6 weeks postpartum using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule. DSM-IV criteria were applied to determine the presence since birth of depression (major or minor), panic disorder, acute adjustment disorder with anxiety (meeting the criteria for generalised anxiety disorder except for the duration criterion), and phobia. The inclusion of diagnostic assessment for panic disorder and acute adjustment disorder with anxiety increased the rates of caseness by between 57 and 100% for mothers, and 31-130% for fathers, over the rates for major or minor depression. Inclusion of assessment for phobia further increased the rates of disorder in both samples.

Validation of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale for men, and comparison of item endorsement with their partners

BACKGROUND: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) has been validated and used extensively in screening for depression in new mothers, both in English speaking and non-English speaking communities. While some studies have reported the use of the EPDS with fathers, none have validated it for this group, and thus the appropriate cut-off score for screening for depression or anxiety caseness for this population is not known. METHODS: Couples were recruited antenatally and interviewed at six weeks postpartum. EPDS scores and distress caseness (depression or anxiety disorders) for 208 fathers and 230 mothers were determined using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule. RESULTS: Analyses of the EPDS for fathers using distress caseness (depression or anxiety disorders) as the criterion shows that a cut-off of 5/6 has optimum receiver operating characteristics. Furthermore acceptable reliability (split-half and internal consistency) and validity (concurrent) coefficients were obtained. For mothers the optimum cut-off screening value to detect distress caseness was 7/8. Item analysis revealed that fathers endorsed seven of the ten items at lower rates to mothers, with the most significant being that referring to crying. CONCLUSIONS: The EPDS is a reliable and valid measure of mood in fathers. Screening for depression or anxiety disorders in fathers requires a two point lower cut-off than screening for depression or anxiety in mothers, and we recommend this cut-off to be 5/6

Scatter difference NAP for SVM speaker recognition

This paper presents Scatter Difference Nuisance Attribute Projection (SD-NAP) as an enhancement to NAP for SVM-based speaker verification. While standard NAP may inadvertently remove desirable speaker variability, SD-NAP explicitly de-emphasises this variability by incorporating a weighted version of the between-class scatter into the NAP optimisation criterion. Experimental evaluation of SD-NAP with a variety of SVM systems on the 2006 and 2008 NIST SRE corpora demonstrate that SD-NAP provides improved verification performance over standard NAP in most cases, particularly at the EER operating point.

Using information criteria to select the correct variance–covariance structure for longitudinal data in ecology

1. Ecological data sets often use clustered measurements or use repeated sampling in a longitudinal design. Choosing the correct covariance structure is an important step in the analysis of such data, as the covariance describes the degree of similarity among the repeated observations. 2. Three methods for choosing the covariance are: the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the quasi-information criterion (QIC), and the deviance information criterion (DIC). We compared the methods using a simulation study and using a data set that explored effects of forest fragmentation on avian species richness over 15 years. 3. The overall success was 80.6% for the AIC, 29.4% for the QIC and 81.6% for the DIC. For the forest fragmentation study the AIC and DIC selected the unstructured covariance, whereas the QIC selected the simpler autoregressive covariance. Graphical diagnostics suggested that the unstructured covariance was probably correct. 4. We recommend using DIC for selecting the correct covariance structure.

Blur limits for defocus, astigmatism and trefoil

We investigated the limits at which blur due to defocus, crossed-cylinder astigmatism, and trefoil became noticeable, troublesome or objectionable. Black letter targets (0.1, 0.35 and 0.6 logMAR) were presented on white backgrounds. Subjects were cyclopleged and had effectively 5 mm pupils. Blur was induced with a deformable, adaptive-optics mirror operating under open-loop conditions. Mean defocus blur limits of six subjects with uncorrected intrinsic higher-order ocular aberrations ranged from 0.18 ± 0.08 D (noticeable blur criterion, 0.1 logMAR) to 1.01 ± 0.27 D (objectionable blur criterion, 0.6 logMAR. Crossed-cylinder astigmatic blur limits were approximately 90% of those for defocus, but with considerable meridional influences. In two of the subjects, the intrinsic aberrations of the eye were subsequently corrected before the defocus and astigmatic blur were added. This resulted in only minor reductions in their blur limits. When assessed with trefoil blur and corrected intrinsic ocular aberrations, the ratio of objectionable to noticeable blur limits in these two subjects was much higher for trefoil (3.5) than for defocus (2.5) and astigmatism (2.2).

Conceptions of school based youth health nursing : a phenomenographic study

The School Based Youth Health Nurse Program was established in 1999 by the Queensland Government to fund school nurse positions in Queensland state high schools. Schools were required to apply for a School Based Youth Health Nurse during a five-phase recruitment process, managed by the health districts, and rolled out over four years. The only mandatory selection criterion for the position of School Based Youth Health Nurse was registration as a General Nurse and most School Based Youth Health Nurses are allocated to two state high schools. Currently, there are approximately 115 Full Time Equivalent School Based Youth Health Nurse positions across all Queensland state high schools. The literature review revealed an abundance of information about school nursing. Most of the literature came from the United Kingdom and the United States, who have a different model of school nursing to school based youth health nursing. However, there is literature to suggest school nursing is gradually moving from a disease-focused approach to a social view of health. The noticeable number of articles about, for example, drug and alcohol, mental health, and contemporary sexual health issues, is evidence of this change. Additionally, there is a significant the volume of literature about partnerships and collaboration, much of which is about health education, team teaching and how school nurses and schools do health business together. The surfacing of this literature is a good indication that school nursing is aligning with the broader national health priority areas. More particularly, the literature exposed a small but relevant and current body of research, predominantly from Queensland, about school based youth health nursing. However, there remain significant gaps in the knowledge about school based youth health nursing. In particular, there is a deficit about how School Based Youth Heath Nurses understand the experience of school based youth health nursing. This research aimed to reveal the meaning of the experience of school based youth health nursing. The research question was How do School Based Youth Health Nurses’ understand the experience of school based youth health nursing? This enquiry was instigated because the researcher, who had a positive experience of school based youth health nursing, considered it important to validate other School Based Youth Health Nurses’ experiences. Consequently, a comprehensive use of qualitative research was considered the most appropriate manner to explore this research question. Within this qualitative paradigm, the research framework consists of the epistemology of social constructionism, the theoretical perspective of interpretivism and the approach of phenomenography. After ethical approval was gained, purposeful and snowball sampling was used to recruit a sample of 16 participants. In-depth interviews, which were voluntary, confidential and anonymous, were mostly conducted in public venues and lasted from 40-75 minutes. The researcher also kept a researchers journal as another form of data collection. Data analysis was guided by Dahlgren and Fallsbergs’ (1991, p. 152) seven phases of data analysis which includes familiarization, condensation, comparison, grouping, articulating, labelling and contrasting. The most important finding in this research is the outcome space, which represents the entirety of the experience of school based youth health nursing. The outcome space consists of two components: inside the school environment and outside the school environment. Metaphorically and considered as whole-in-themselves, these two components are not discreet but intertwined with each other. The outcome space consists of eight categories. Each category of description is comprised of several sub-categories of description but as a whole, is a conception of school based youth health nursing. The eight conceptions of school based youth health nursing are: 1. The conception of school based youth health nursing as out there all by yourself. 2. The conception of school based youth health nursing as no real backup. 3. The conception of school based youth health nursing as confronted by many barriers. 4. The conception of school based youth health nursing as hectic and full-on. 5. The conception of school based youth health nursing as working together. 6. The conception of school based youth health nursing as belonging to school. 7. The conception of school based youth health nursing as treated the same as others. 8. The conception of school based youth health nursing as the reason it’s all worthwhile. These eight conceptions of school based youth health nursing are logically related and form a staged hierarchical relationship because they are not equally dependent on each other. The conceptions of school based youth health nursing are grouped according to negative, negative and positive and positive conceptions of school based youth health nursing. The conceptions of school based youth health nursing build on each other, from the bottom upwards, to reach the authorized, or the most desired, conception of school based youth health nursing. This research adds to the knowledge about school nursing in general but especially about school based youth health nursing specifically. Furthermore, this research has operational and strategic implications, highlighted in the negative conceptions of school based youth health nursing, for the School Based Youth Health Nurse Program. The researcher suggests the School Based Youth Health Nurse Program, as a priority, address the operational issues The researcher recommends a range of actions to tackle issues and problems associated with accommodation and information, consultations and referral pathways, confidentiality, health promotion and education, professional development, line management and School Based Youth Health Nurse Program support and school management and community. Strategically, the researcher proposes a variety of actions to address strategic issues, such as the School Based Youth Health Nurse Program vision, model and policy and practice framework, recruitment and retention rates and evaluation. Additionally, the researcher believes the findings of this research have the capacity to spawn a myriad of future research projects. The researcher has identified the most important areas for future research as confidentiality, information, qualifications and health outcomes.

Measurement properties of the Australian Women's Activity Survey

Purpose: The Australian Women’s Activity Survey (AWAS) was developed based on a systematic review and qualitative research on how to measure activity patterns of women with young children (WYC). AWAS assesses activity performed across five domains (planned activities, employment, childcare, domestic responsibilities and transport), and intensity levels (sitting, light-intensity, brisk walking, moderate-intensity and vigorous-intensity) in a typical week in the past month. The purpose of this study was to assess the test-retest reliability and criterion validity of the AWAS. Methods: WYC completed the AWAS on two occasions 7-d apart (test-retest reliability protocol) and/or wore an MTI ActiGraph accelerometer for 7-d in between (validity protocol). Forty WYC (mean age 35 ± 5yrs) completed the test-retest reliability protocol and 75 WYC (mean age 33 ± 5yrs) completed the validity protocol. Interclass Correlation Coefficients (ICC) between AWAS administrations and Spearman’s Correlation Coefficients (rs) between AWAS and MTI data were calculated. Results: AWAS showed good test-retest reliability (ICC=0.80 (0.65-0.89)) and acceptable criterion validity (rs= 0.28, p=0.01) for measuring weekly health-enhancing physical activity. AWAS also provided repeatable and valid estimates of sitting time (test-retest reliability ICC=0.42 (0.13-0.64), and criterion validity (rs= 0.32, p=0.006)). Conclusion: The measurement properties of the AWAS are comparable to those reported for existing self-report measures of physical activity. However, AWAS offers a more comprehensive and flexible alternative for accurately assessing different domains and intensities of activity relevant to WYC. Future research should investigate whether the AWAS is a suitable measure of intervention efficacy by examining its sensitivity to change.

Bayesian latent trait modeling of migraine symptom data

Definition of disease phenotype is a necessary preliminary to research into genetic causes of a complex disease. Clinical diagnosis of migraine is currently based on diagnostic criteria developed by the International Headache Society. Previously, we examined the natural clustering of these diagnostic symptoms using latent class analysis (LCA) and found that a four-class model was preferred. However, the classes can be ordered such that all symptoms progressively intensify, suggesting that a single continuous variable representing disease severity may provide a better model. Here, we compare two models: item response theory and LCA, each constructed within a Bayesian context. A deviance information criterion is used to assess model fit. We phenotyped our population sample using these models, estimated heritability and conducted genome-wide linkage analysis using Merlin-qtl. LCA with four classes was again preferred. After transformation, phenotypic trait values derived from both models are highly correlated (correlation = 0.99) and consequently results from subsequent genetic analyses were similar. Heritability was estimated at 0.37, while multipoint linkage analysis produced genome-wide significant linkage to chromosome 7q31-q33 and suggestive linkage to chromosomes 1 and 2. We argue that such continuous measures are a powerful tool for identifying genes contributing to migraine susceptibility.

Resilience in chronic disease : the relationships among risk factors, protective factors, adaptive outcomes, and the level of resilience in adults with diabetes

Background: There are innumerable diabetes studies that have investigated associations between risk factors, protective factors, and health outcomes; however, these individual predictors are part of a complex network of interacting forces. Moreover, there is little awareness about resilience or its importance in chronic disease in adulthood, especially diabetes. Thus, this is the first study to: (1) extensively investigate the relationships among a host of predictors and multiple adaptive outcomes; and (2) conceptualise a resilience model among people with diabetes. Methods: This cross-sectional study was divided into two research studies. Study One was to translate two diabetes-specific instruments (Problem Areas In Diabetes, PAID; Diabetes Coping Measure, DCM) into a Chinese version and to examine their psychometric properties for use in Study Two in a convenience sample of 205 outpatients with type 2 diabetes. In Study Two, an integrated theoretical model is developed and evaluated using the structural equation modelling (SEM) technique. A self-administered questionnaire was completed by 345 people with type 2 diabetes from the endocrine outpatient departments of three hospitals in Taiwan. Results: Confirmatory factor analyses confirmed a one-factor structure of the PAID-C which was similar to the original version of the PAID. Strong content validity of the PAID-C was demonstrated. The PAID-C was associated with HbA1c and diabetes self-care behaviours, confirming satisfactory criterion validity. There was a moderate relationship between the PAID-C and the Perceived Stress Scale, supporting satisfactory convergent validity. The PAID-C also demonstrated satisfactory stability and high internal consistency. A four-factor structure and strong content validity of the DCM-C was confirmed. Criterion validity demonstrated that the DCM-C was significantly associated with HbA1c and diabetes self-care behaviours. There was a statistical correlation between the DCM-C and the Revised Ways of Coping Checklist, suggesting satisfactory convergent validity. Test-retest reliability demonstrated satisfactory stability of the DCM-C. The total scale of the DCM-C showed adequate internal consistency. Age, duration of diabetes, diabetes symptoms, diabetes distress, physical activity, coping strategies, and social support were the most consistent factors associated with adaptive outcomes in adults with diabetes. Resilience was positively associated with coping strategies, social support, health-related quality of life, and diabetes self-care behaviours. Results of the structural equation modelling revealed protective factors had a significant direct effect on adaptive outcomes; however, the construct of risk factors was not significantly related to adaptive outcomes. Moreover, resilience can moderate the relationships among protective factors and adaptive outcomes, but there were no interaction effects of risk factors and resilience on adaptive outcomes. Conclusion: This study contributes to an understanding of how risk factors and protective factors work together to influence adaptive outcomes in blood sugar control, health-related quality of life, and diabetes self-care behaviours. Additionally, resilience is a positive personality characteristic and may be importantly involved in the adjustment process among people living with type 2 diabetes.

Validation of the Australian Propensity for Angry Driving Scale (Aus-PADS)

The present study used a university sample to assess the test-retest reliability and validity of the Australian Propensity for Angry Driving Scale (Aus-PADS). The scale has stability over time, and convergent validity was established, as Aus-PADS scores correlated significantly with established anger and impulsivity measures. Discriminant validity was also established, as Aus-PADS scores did not correlate with Venturesomeness scores. The Aus-PADS has demonstrated criterion validity, as scores were correlated with behavioural measures, such as yelling at other drivers, gesturing at other drivers, and feeling angry but not doing anything. Aus-PADS scores reliably predicted the frequency of these behaviours over and above other study variables. No significant relationship between aggressive driving and crash involvement was observed. It was concluded that the Aus-PADS is a reliable and valid tool appropriate for use in Australian research, and that the potential relationship between aggressive driving and crash involvement warrants further investigation with a more representative (and diverse) driver sample.

An adaptable framework for the teaching and assessment of software development across year levels

Few frameworks exist for the teaching and assessment of programming subjects that are coherent and logical. Nor are they sufficiently generic and adaptable to be used outside the particular tertiary institutions in which they were developed. This paper presents the Teaching and Assessment of Software Development (TASD) frame-work. We describe its development and implementation at an Australian university and demonstrate, with examples, how it has been used, with supporting data. Extracts of criteria sheets (grading rubrics) for a variety of assessment tasks are included. The numerous advantages of this new framework are discussed with comparisons made to those reported in the published literature.

The applicability of biased estimation in model and model order selection

Biased estimation has the advantage of reducing the mean squared error (MSE) of an estimator. The question of interest is how biased estimation affects model selection. In this paper, we introduce biased estimation to a range of model selection criteria. Specifically, we analyze the performance of the minimum description length (MDL) criterion based on biased and unbiased estimation and compare it against modern model selection criteria such as Kay's conditional model order estimator (CME), the bootstrap and the more recently proposed hook-and-loop resampling based model selection. The advantages and limitations of the considered techniques are discussed. The results indicate that, in some cases, biased estimators can slightly improve the selection of the correct model. We also give an example for which the CME with an unbiased estimator fails, but could regain its power when a biased estimator is used.

Bayes factor based speaker clustering for speaker diarization

This paper proposes the use of the Bayes Factor to replace the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) as a criterion for speaker clustering within a speaker diarization system. The BIC is one of the most popular decision criteria used in speaker diarization systems today. However, it will be shown in this paper that the BIC is only an approximation to the Bayes factor of marginal likelihoods of the data given each hypothesis. This paper uses the Bayes factor directly as a decision criterion for speaker clustering, thus removing the error introduced by the BIC approximation. Results obtained on the 2002 Rich Transcription (RT-02) Evaluation dataset show an improved clustering performance, leading to a 14.7% relative improvement in the overall Diarization Error Rate (DER) compared to the baseline system.

An examination of IS conference reviewing practices

There has been considerable interest over the years within the IS research community into how to shape articles for successful publication. Little effort has been made, however, to examine the reviewing criteria that make a difference to publication. We argue that, to provide better guidance to authors, more solid evidence is needed into the factors that contribute to acceptance decisions. This paper examines empirically the outcomes of the reviewing processes of three well-known IS conferences held in 2007. Our analyses reveal four major findings. First, the evaluation criteria that influence the acceptance/rejection decision vary by conference. Second, those differences can be explained in terms of the maturity and breadth of the specific conference of interest. Third, while objective review criteria influence acceptance/rejection decisions, subjective assessment on the part of the program committees may also play a substantial role. Fourth, while high scores on objective criteria are essential for acceptance, they do not guarantee acceptance. On the other hand, low scores on any criterion are likely to result in rejection.