Mathematical modeling for improved greenhouse gas balances, agro-ecosystems, and policy development: Lessons from the Australian experience

If the land sector is to make significant contributions to mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming decades, it must do so while concurrently expanding production of food and fiber. In our view, mathematical modeling will be required to provide scientific guidance to meet this challenge. In order to be useful in GHG mitigation policy measures, models must simultaneously meet scientific, software engineering, and human capacity requirements. They can be used to understand GHG fluxes, to evaluate proposed GHG mitigation actions, and to predict and monitor the effects of specific actions; the latter applications require a change in mindset that has parallels with the shift from research modeling to decision support. We compare and contrast 6 agro-ecosystem models (FullCAM, DayCent, DNDC, APSIM, WNMM, and AgMod), chosen because they are used in Australian agriculture and forestry. Underlying structural similarities in the representations of carbon flows though plants and soils in these models are complemented by a diverse range of emphases and approaches to the subprocesses within the agro-ecosystem. None of these agro-ecosystem models handles all land sector GHG fluxes, and considerable model-based uncertainty exists for soil C fluxes and enteric methane emissions. The models also show diverse approaches to the initialisation of model simulations, software implementation, distribution, licensing, and software quality assurance; each of these will differentially affect their usefulness for policy-driven GHG mitigation prediction and monitoring. Specific requirements imposed on the use of models by Australian mitigation policy settings are discussed, and areas for further scientific development of agro-ecosystem models for use in GHG mitigation policy are proposed.

Birth and expansion of innovation ecosystems: A case study of copper production

Despite the growing attention innovation ecosystems have received from scholars and practitioners, rather little is known about the crucial birth and expansion phases that these ecosystems experience. Through a single case in the complex product system (CoPS) environment, this paper investigates the development of an innovation ecosystem between 1980 and 2007. The findings demonstrate that the ecosystem’s birth phase includes sub-phases, namely, invention and start-up, where the ecosystem is reconfigured to find the appropriate form and the proper actors to satisfy the first customer’s requirements. Moreover, the duration of the expansion phase is found to be remarkably long, suggesting that within the CoPS setting, expansion may also include two or more sub-phases.

Chronicling the patient journey: Co-creating value with digital health ecosystems

With the introduction of the PCEHR (Personally Controlled Electronic Health Record), the Australian public is being asked to accept greater responsibility for the management of their health information. However, the implementation of the PCEHR has occasioned poor adoption rates underscored by criticism from stakeholders with concerns about transparency, accountability, privacy, confidentiality, governance, and limited capabilities. This study adopts an ethnographic lens to observe how information is created and used during the patient journey and the social factors impacting on the adoption of the PCEHR at the micro-level in order to develop a conceptual model that will encourage the sharing of patient information within the cycle of care. Objective: This study aims to firstly, establish a basic understanding of healthcare professional attitudes toward a national platform for sharing patient summary information in the form of a PCEHR. Secondly, the studies aims to map the flow of patient related information as it traverses a patient’s personal cycle of care. Thus, an ethnographic approach was used to bring a “real world” lens to information flow in a series of case studies in the Australian healthcare system to discover themes and issues that are important from the patient’s perspective. Design: Qualitative study utilising ethnographic case studies. Setting: Case studies were conducted at primary and allied healthcare professionals located in Brisbane Queensland between October 2013 and July 2014. Results: In the first dimension, it was identified that healthcare professionals’ concerns about trust and medico-legal issues related to patient control and information quality, and the lack of clinical value available with the PCEHR emerged as significant barriers to use. The second dimension of the study which attempted to map patient information flow identified information quality issues, clinical workflow inefficiencies and interoperability misconceptions resulting in duplication of effort, unnecessary manual processes, data quality and integrity issues and an over reliance on the understanding and communication skills of the patient. Conclusion: Opportunities for process efficiencies, improved data quality and increased patient safety emerge with the adoption of an appropriate information sharing platform. More importantly, large scale eHealth initiatives must be aligned with the value proposition of individual stakeholders in order to achieve widespread adoption. Leveraging an Australian national eHealth infrastructure and the PCEHR we offer a practical example of a service driven digital ecosystem suitable for co-creating value in healthcare.

Positive development

net sustainability. At best they reduce relative resource consumption. They still consume vast quantities of materials, energy, water and ecosystems during construction. Moreover, green buildings replace land and ecosystems with structures that, at the very best, only 'mimic' ecosystems<'). Mimicking nature is little compensation when we have lost a third of species that are integral parts of our life support system. Already, development has exceeded the Earth's ecological carrying capacity, so even 'restorative' design is not enough. Urban areas must be retrofitted to increase net bioregional carrying capacity - just to support existing or reduced population levels in cities. The eco-retrofitting of our built environment is therefore an essential precondition of achieving a sustainable society. But we need to eco-retrofit cities in ways that increase net sustainability, not just relative efficiency.

Challenging 'best practice' subtropical design

Genuine sustainability would require that urban development provide net positive social and ecological gains to compensate for previous lost natural capital and carrying capacity. Thus far, green buildings do not contribute to net sustainability. While they reduce relative resource consumption, they consume vast quantities of materials, energy and water.i Moreover, they replace land and ecosystems with structures that, at best, ‘mimic’ ecosystems. Elsewhere, the author has proposed a‘sustainability standard’, where development would leave the ecology, as well as society, better off after construction than before.ii To meet this standard, a development would need to add natural and social capital beyond what existed prior to development. Positive DesignTM or Positive DevelopmentTM is that which expands both the ecological base (life support system) and the public estate (equitable access to means of survival). How to achieve this is discussed in Positive Development (Birkeland 2008). This paper examines how net positive gains can be achieved in a ubtropical as well as temperate environment.

Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

An indexing model for sustainable urban environmental management : the case of Gold Coast, Australia

Improving urban ecosystems and the quality of life of citizens have become a central issue in the global effort of creating sustainable built environments. As human beings our lives completely depend on the sustainability of the nature and we need to protect and manage natural resources in a more sustainable way in order to sustain our existence. As a result of population growth and rapid urbanisation, increasing demand of productivity depletes and degrades natural resources. However, the increasing activities and rapid development require more resources, and therefore, ecological planning becomes an essential vehicle in preserving scarce natural resources. This paper aims to indentify the interation between urban ecosystems and human activities in the context of urban sustainability and explores the degrading environmental impacts of this interaction and the necessity and benefits of using sustainability indicators as a tool in sustainable urban evnironmental management. Additionally, the paper also introduces an environmental sustainability indexing model (ASSURE) as an innovative approach to evaluate the environmental conditions of built environment.

Sustainable urban futures : an ecological approach to sustainable urban development

In recent years, cities show increasing signs of environmental problems due to the negative impacts of urban activities. The degradation and depletion of natural resources, climate change and development pressure on green areas have become major concerns for cities. In response to these problems, urban planning policies have shifted to a sustainable focus and authorities have begun to develop new strategies for improving the quality of urban ecosystems. An extremely important function of an urban ecosystem is to provide healthy and sustainable environments for both natural systems and communities. Therefore, ecological planning is a functional requirement in the establishment of sustainable built environment. With ecological planning human needs are supplied while natural resources are used in the most effective and sustainable manner. And the maintenance of ecological balance is sustained. Protecting human and environmental health, having healthy ecosystems, reducing environmental pollution and providing green spaces are just a few of the many benefits of ecological planning. In this context, the paper briefly presents a short overview of the importance of the implementation of ecological planning into sustainable urban development. Furthermore, the paper defines the conceptual framework of a new method for developing sustainable urban ecosystems through ecological planning approach. In the future of the research, this model will be developed as a guideline for the assessment of the ecological sustainability in built environments.

Service aggregators in business networks

This position paper examines the development of a dedicated service aggregator role in business networks. We predict that these intermediaries will soon emerge in service ecosystems and add value through the application of dedicated domain knowledge in the process of creating new, innovative services or service bundles based on the aggregation, composition, integration or orchestration of existing services procured from different service providers in the service ecosystem. We discuss general foundations of service aggregators and present Fourth-Party Logistics Providers as a real-world example of emerging business service aggregators. We also point out a demand for future research, e.g. into governance models, risk management tools, service portfolio management approaches and service bundling techniques, to be able to better understand core determinants of competitiveness and success of service aggregators.

Managing the winds of change

Environmental impacts caused during Australia's comparatively recent settlement by Europeans are evident. Governments (both Commonwealth and States) have been largely responsible for requiring landholders – through leasehold development conditions and taxation concessions – to conduct clearing that is now perceived as damage. Most governments are now demanding resource protection. There is a measure of bewilderment (if not resentment) among landholders because of this change. The more populous States, where most overall damage has been done (i.e. Victoria and New South Wales), provide most support for attempts to stop development in other regions where there has been less damage. Queensland, i.e. the north-eastern quarter of the continent, has been relatively slow to develop. It also holds the largest and most diverse natural environments. Tree clearing is an unavoidable element of land development, whether to access and enhance native grasses for livestock or to allow for urban developments (with exotic tree plantings). The consequences in terms of regulations are particularly complex because of the dynamic nature of vegetation. The regulatory terms used in current legislation – such as 'Endangered' and 'Of concern' – depend on legally-defined, static baselines. Regrowth and fire damage are two obvious causes of change. A less obvious aspect is succession, where ecosystems change naturally over long timeframes. In the recent past, the Queensland Government encouraged extensive tree-clearing e.g. through the State Brigalow Development Scheme (mostly 1962 to 1975) which resulted in the removal of some 97% of the wide-ranging mature forests of Acacia harpophylla. At the same time, this government controls National Parks and other reservations (occupying some 4% of the State's 1.7 million km2 area) and also holds major World Heritage Areas (such as the Great Barrier Reef and the Wet Tropics Rainforest) promulgated under Commonwealth legislation. This is a highly prescriptive approach, where the community is directed on the one hand to develop (largely through lease conditions) and on the other to avoid development (largely by unusable reserves). Another approach to development and conservation is still possible in Queensland. For this to occur, however, a more workable and equitable solution than has been employed to date is needed, especially for the remote lands of this State. This must involve resident landholders, who have the capacity (through local knowledge, infrastructure and daily presence) to undertake most costeffectively sustainable land-use management (with suitable attention to ecosystems requiring special conservation effort), that is, provided they have the necessary direction, encouragement and incentive to do so.

Springbrook : Challenges in developing a long-term, rainforest wireless sensor network

We describe the design, development and learnings from the first phase of a rainforest ecological sensor network at Springbrook - part of a World Heritage precinct in South East Queensland. This first phase is part of a major initiative to develop the capability to provide reliable, long-term monitoring of rainforest ecosystems. We focus in particular on our analysis around energy and communication challenges which need to be solved to allow for reliable, long-term deployments in these types of environments.

Low-Cost vision-based AUV guidance system for reef navigation

Ensuring the long term viability of reef environments requires essential monitoring of many aspects of these ecosystems. However, the sheer size of these unstructured environments (for example Australia’s Great Barrier Reef pose a number of challenges for current monitoring platforms which are typically remote operated and required significant resources and infrastructure. Therefore, a primary objective of the CSIRO robotic reef monitoring project is to develop and deploy a large number of AUV teams to perform broadscale reef surveying. In order to achieve this, the platforms must be cheap, even possibly disposable. This paper presents the results of a preliminary investigation into the performance of a low-cost sensor suite and associated processing techniques for vision and inertial-based navigation within a highly unstructured reef environment.

The importance of a triple bottom line approach for safeguarding urban water quality

Water environments are greatly valued in urban areas as ecological and aesthetic assets. However, it is the water environment that is most adversely affected by urbanisation. Urban land use coupled with anthropogenic activities alters the stream flow regime and degrade water quality with urban stormwater being a significant source of pollutants. Unfortunately, urban water pollution is difficult to evaluate in terms of conventional monetary measures. True costs extend beyond immediate human or the physical boundaries of the urban area and affect the function of surrounding ecosystems. Current approaches for handling stormwater pollution and water quality issues in urban landscapes are limited as these are primarily focused on ‘end-of-pipe’ solutions. The approaches are commonly based either on, insufficient design knowledge, faulty value judgements or inadequate consideration of full life cycle costs. It is in this context that the adoption of a triple bottom line approach is advocated to safeguard urban water quality. The problem of degradation of urban water environments can only be remedied through innovative planning, water sensitive engineering design and the foresight to implement sustainable practices. Sustainable urban landscapes must be designed to match the triple bottom line needs of the community, starting with ecosystem services first such as the water cycle, then addressing the social and immediate ecosystem health needs, and finally the economic performance of the catchment. This calls for a cultural change towards urban water resources rather than the current piecemeal and single issue focus approach. This paper discusses the challenges in safeguarding urban water environments and the limitations of current approaches. It then explores the opportunities offered by integrating innovative planning practices with water engineering concepts into a single cohesive framework to protect valuable urban ecosystem assets. Finally, a series of recommendations are proposed for protecting urban water resources within the context of a triple bottom line approach.

Impacts of vessel capacity reduction programs on the efficiency in fisheries. The case of Australia's multispecies in northern prawn fishery

Capacity reduction programs in the form of buybacks or decommissioning programs have had relatively widespread application in fisheries in the US, Europe and Australia. A common criticism of such programs is that they remove the least efficient vessels first, resulting in an increase in average efficiency of the remaining fleet. The effective fishing power of the fleet, therefore, does not decrease in proportion to the number of vessels removed. Further, reduced crowding may increase efficiency of the remaining vessels. In this paper, the effects of a buyback program on average technical efficiency in Australia’s Northern Prawn Fishery are examined using a multi-output distance function approach with an explicit inefficiency model. The results indicate that average efficiency of the remaining vessels was greater than that of the removed vessels, and that average efficiency of remaining vessels also increased as a result of reduced crowding.