142 resultados para Generalised Linear Models


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Silver dressings have been widely used to successfully prevent burn wound infection and sepsis. However, a few case studies have reported the functional abnormality and failure of vital organs, possibly caused by silver deposits. The aim of this study was to investigate the serum silver level in the pediatric burn population and also in several internal organs in a porcine burn model after the application of Acticoat. A total of 125 blood samples were collected from 46 pediatric burn patients. Thirty-six patients with a mean of 13.4% TBSA burns had a mean peak serum silver level of 114 microg/L, whereas 10 patients with a mean of 1.85% TBSA burns had an undetectable level of silver (<5.4 microg/L). Overall, serum silver levels were closely related to burn sizes. However, the highest serum silver was 735 microg/L in a 15-month-old toddler with 10% TBSA burns and the second highest was 367 microg/L in a 3-year old with 28% TBSA burns. In a porcine model with 2% TBSA burns, the mean peak silver level was 38 microg/L at 2 to 3 weeks after application of Acticoat and was then significantly reduced to an almost undetectable level at 6 weeks. Of a total of four pigs, silver was detected in all four livers (1.413 microg/g) and all four hearts (0.342 microg/g), three of four kidneys (1.113 microg/g), and two of four brains (0.402 microg/g). This result demonstrated that although variable, the level of serum silver was positively associated with the size of burns, and significant amounts of silver were deposited in internal organs in pigs with only 2% TBSA burns, after application of Acticoat.

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This study examined the prevalence of co-morbid age-related eye disease and symptoms of depression and anxiety in late life, and the relative roles of visual function and disease in explaining symptoms of depression and anxiety. A community-based sample of 662 individuals aged over 70 years was recruited through the electoral roll. Vision was measured using a battery of tests including high and low contrast visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, motion sensitivity, stereoacuity, Useful Field of View, and visual fields. Depression and anxiety symptoms were measured using the Goldberg scales. The prevalence of self-reported eye disease [cataract, glaucoma, or age-related macular degeneration (AMD)] in the sample was 43.4%, with 7.7% reporting more than one form of ocular pathology. Of those with no eye disease, 3.7% had clinically significant depressive symptoms. This rate was 6.7% among cataract patients, 4.3% among those with glaucoma, and 10.5% for AMD. Generalized linear models adjusting for demographics, general health, treatment, and disability examined self-reported eye disease and visual function as correlates of depression and anxiety. Depressive symptoms were associated with cataract only, AMD, comorbid eye diseases and reduced low contrast visual acuity. Anxiety was significantly associated with self-reported cataract, and reduced low contrast visual acuity, motion sensitivity and contrast sensitivity. We found no evidence for elevated rates of depressive or anxiety symptoms associated with self-reported glaucoma. The results support previous findings of high rates of depression and anxiety in cataract and AMD, and in addition show that mood and anxiety are associated with objective measures of visual function independently of self-reported eye disease. The findings have implications for the assessment and treatment of mental health in the context of late-life visual impairment...

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Objective To quantitatively assess and compare the quality of life (QoL) of women with a self-reported diagnosis of lower limb lymphedema (LLL), to women with lower limb swelling (LLS), and to women without LLL or LLS following treatment for endometrial cancer. Methods 1399 participants in the Australian National Endometrial Cancer Study were sent a follow-up questionnaire 3–5 years after diagnosis. Women were asked if they had experienced swelling in the lower limbs and, if so, whether they had received a diagnosis of lymphedema by a health professional. The 639 women who responded were categorised as: Women with LLL (n = 68), women with LLS (n = 177) and women without LLL or LLS (n = 394). Multivariable-adjusted generalized linear models were used to compare women’s physical and mental QoL by LLL status. Results On average, women were 65 years of age and 4 years after diagnosis. Women with LLL had clinically lower physical QoL (M= 41.8, SE= 1.4) than women without LLL or LLS (M= 45.1, SE= 0.8, p = .07), however, their mental QoL was within the normative range (M= 49.6; SE= 1.1 p = 1.0). Women with LLS had significantly lower physical (M= 41.0, SE= 1.0, p = .003) and mental QoL (M= 46.8; SE= 0.8, p < .0001) than women without LLL or LLS (Mental QoL: M= 50.6, SE= 0.8). Conclusion Although LLL was associated with reductions in physical QoL, LLS was related to reductions in both physical and mental QoL 3-5 years after cancer treatment. Early referral to evidence-based lymphedema programs may prevent long-term impairments to women’s QoL.

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Background Children are particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme temperatures. Objective To examine the relationship between extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions (EDAs) in Brisbane, Australia, during 2003–2009. Methods A quasi-Poisson generalised linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationships between extreme temperatures and age-, gender- and cause-specific paediatric EDAs, while controlling for air pollution, relative humidity, day of the week, influenza epidemics, public holiday, season and long-term trends. The model residuals were checked to identify whether there was an added effect due to heat waves or cold spells. Results There were 131 249 EDAs among children during the study period. Both high (RR=1.27; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.44) and low (RR=1.81; 95% CI 1.66 to 1.97) temperatures were significantly associated with an increase in paediatric EDAs in Brisbane. Male children were more vulnerable to temperature effects. Children aged 0–4 years were more vulnerable to heat effects and children aged 10–14 years were more sensitive to both hot and cold effects. High temperatures had a significant impact on several paediatric diseases, including intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases, endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Low temperatures were significantly associated with intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases and endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases. An added effect of heat waves on childhood chronic lower respiratory diseases was seen, but no added effect of cold spells was found. Conclusions As climate change continues, children are at particular risk of a variety of diseases which might be triggered by extremely high temperatures. This study suggests that preventing the effects of extreme temperature on children with respiratory diseases might reduce the number of EDAs.

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Violence in entertainment districts is a major problem across urban landscapes throughout the world. Research shows that licensed premises are the third most common location for homicides and serious assaults, accounting for one in ten fatal and nonfatal assaults. One class of interventions that aims to reduce violence in entertainment districts involves the use of civil remedies: a group of strategies that use civil or regulatory measures as legal “levers” to reduce problem behavior. One specific civil remedy used to reduce problematic behavior in entertainment districts involves manipulation of licensed premise trading hours. This article uses generalized linear models to analyze the impact of lockout legislation on recorded violent offences in two entertainment districts in the Australian state of Queensland. Our research shows that 3 a.m. lockout legislation led to a direct and significant reduction in the number of violent incidents inside licensed premises. Indeed, the lockouts cut the level of violent crime inside licensed premises by half. Despite these impressive results for the control of violence inside licensed premises, we found no evidence that the lockout had any impact on violence on streets and footpaths outside licensed premises that were the site for more than 80 percent of entertainment district violence. Overall, however, our analysis suggests that lockouts are an important mechanism that helps to control the level of violence inside licensed premises but that finely grained contextual responses to alcohol-related problems are needed rather than one-size-fits-all solutions.

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The Lesser Grain Borer is a major pest of stored grain with a global distribution. This project has, for the first time recorded this pest throughout broad spatial areas, tens of kilometres from grain production or storage. Statistical analysis revealed that different factors such as ambient temperature and the availability of food resources affect R. dominica differently between different habitats. This suggests that, contrary to the prevailing view, this pest is not solely dependent on stored wheat and can continue to persist throughout a range of habitats. These findings have important management implications for Australia's wheat industry.

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This paper presents two novel nonlinear models of u-shaped anti-roll tanks for ships, and their linearizations. In addition, a third simplified nonlinear model is presented. The models are derived using Lagrangian mechanics. This formulation not only simplifies the modeling process, but also allows one to obtain models that satisfy energy-related physical properties. The proposed nonlinear models and their linearizations are validated using model-scale experimental data. Unlike other models in the literature, the nonlinear models in this paper are valid for large roll amplitudes. Even at moderate roll angles, the nonlinear models have three orders of magnitude lower mean square error relative to experimental data than the linear models.

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The relationship between temperature and mortality is non-linear and the effect estimates depend on the threshold temperatures selected. However, little is known about whether threshold temperatures differ with age or cause of deaths in the Southern Hemisphere. We conducted polynomial distributed lag non-linear models to assess the threshold temperatures for mortality from all ages (Dall), aged from 15 to 64 (D15-64), 65- 84(D65-84), ≥85 years (D85+), respiratory (RD) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Brisbane, Australia, 1996–2004. We examined both hot and cold thresholds, and the lags of up to 15 days for cold effects and 3 days for hot effects. Results show that for the current day, the cold threshold was 20°C and the hot threshold was 28°C for the groups of Dall, D15-64 and D85+. The cold threshold was higher (23°C) for the group of D65-84 and lower (21°C) for the group of CVD. The hot threshold was higher (29°C) for the group of D65-84 and lower (27°C) for the group of RD. Compared to the current day, for the cold effects of up to 15-day lags, the threshold was lower for the group of D15-64, and the thresholds were higher for the groups of D65-84, D85+, RD and CVD; while for the hot effects of 3-day lags, the threshold was higher for the group of D15-64 and the thresholds were lower for the groups of D65-84 and RD. Temperature thresholds appeared to differ with age and death categories. The elderly and deaths from RD and CVD were more sensitive to temperature stress than the adult group. These findings may have implications in the assessment of temperature-related mortality and development of weather/health warning systems.

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1. Biodiversity, water quality and ecosystem processes in streams are known to be influenced by the terrestrial landscape over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Lumped attributes (i.e. per cent land use) are often used to characterise the condition of the catchment; however, they are not spatially explicit and do not account for the disproportionate influence of land located near the stream or connected by overland flow. 2. We compared seven landscape representation metrics to determine whether accounting for the spatial proximity and hydrological effects of land use can be used to account for additional variability in indicators of stream ecosystem health. The landscape metrics included the following: a lumped metric, four inverse-distance-weighted (IDW) metrics based on distance to the stream or survey site and two modified IDW metrics that also accounted for the level of hydrologic activity (HA-IDW). Ecosystem health data were obtained from the Ecological Health Monitoring Programme in Southeast Queensland, Australia and included measures of fish, invertebrates, physicochemistry and nutrients collected during two seasons over 4 years. Linear models were fitted to the stream indicators and landscape metrics, by season, and compared using an information-theoretic approach. 3. Although no single metric was most suitable for modelling all stream indicators, lumped metrics rarely performed as well as other metric types. Metrics based on proximity to the stream (IDW and HA-IDW) were more suitable for modelling fish indicators, while the HA-IDW metric based on proximity to the survey site generally outperformed others for invertebrates, irrespective of season. There was consistent support for metrics based on proximity to the survey site (IDW or HA-IDW) for all physicochemical indicators during the dry season, while a HA-IDW metric based on proximity to the stream was suitable for five of the six physicochemical indicators in the post-wet season. Only one nutrient indicator was tested and results showed that catchment area had a significant effect on the relationship between land use metrics and algal stable isotope ratios in both seasons. 4. Spatially explicit methods of landscape representation can clearly improve the predictive ability of many empirical models currently used to study the relationship between landscape, habitat and stream condition. A comparison of different metrics may provide clues about causal pathways and mechanistic processes behind correlative relationships and could be used to target restoration efforts strategically.

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Objective To evaluate methods for monitoring monthly aggregated hospital adverse event data that display clustering, non-linear trends and possible autocorrelation. Design Retrospective audit. Setting The Northern Hospital, Melbourne, Australia. Participants 171,059 patients admitted between January 2001 and December 2006. Measurements The analysis is illustrated with 72 months of patient fall injury data using a modified Shewhart U control chart, and charts derived from a quasi-Poisson generalised linear model (GLM) and a generalised additive mixed model (GAMM) that included an approximate upper control limit. Results The data were overdispersed and displayed a downward trend and possible autocorrelation. The downward trend was followed by a predictable period after December 2003. The GLM-estimated incidence rate ratio was 0.98 (95% CI 0.98 to 0.99) per month. The GAMM-fitted count fell from 12.67 (95% CI 10.05 to 15.97) in January 2001 to 5.23 (95% CI 3.82 to 7.15) in December 2006 (p<0.001). The corresponding values for the GLM were 11.9 and 3.94. Residual plots suggested that the GLM underestimated the rate at the beginning and end of the series and overestimated it in the middle. The data suggested a more rapid rate fall before 2004 and a steady state thereafter, a pattern reflected in the GAMM chart. The approximate upper two-sigma equivalent control limit in the GLM and GAMM charts identified 2 months that showed possible special-cause variation. Conclusion Charts based on GAMM analysis are a suitable alternative to Shewhart U control charts with these data.

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As the cost of mineral fertilisers increases globally, organic soil amendments (OAs) from agricultural sources are increasingly being used as substitutes for nitrogen. However, the impact of OAs on the production of greenhouse gases (CO2 and N2O) is not well understood. A 60-day laboratory incubation experiment was conducted to investigate the impacts of applying OAs (equivalent to 296 kg N ha−1 on average) on N2O and CO2 emissions and soil properties of clay and sandy loam soils from sugar cane production. The experiment included 6 treatments, one being an un-amended (UN) control with addition of five OAs being raw mill mud (MM), composted mill mud (CM), high N compost (HC), rice husk biochar (RB), and raw mill mud plus rice husk biochar (MB). These OAs were incubated at 60, 75 and 90% water-filled pore space (WFPS) at 25°C with urea (equivalent to 200 kg N ha−1) added to the soils thirty days after the incubation commenced. Results showed WFPS did not influence CO2 emissions over the 60 days but the magnitude of emissions as a proportion of C applied was RB < CM < MB < HC linear models being developed to predict CO2 and N2O emissions as a function of the dry matter and C/N ratio of the OAs, WFPS, and the soil CEC. Application of RB reduced N2O emissions by as much as 42-64% depending on WFPS. The reductions in both CO2 and N2O emissions after application of RB were due to a reduced bioavailability of C and not immobilisation of N. These findings show that the effect of OAs on soil GHG emissions can vary substantially depending on their chemical properties. OAs with a high availability of labile C and N can lead to elevated emissions of CO2 and N2O, while rice husk biochar showed potential in reducing overall soil GHG emissions.

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In the commercial food industry, demonstration of microbiological safety and thermal process equivalence often involves a mathematical framework that assumes log-linear inactivation kinetics and invokes concepts of decimal reduction time (DT), z values, and accumulated lethality. However, many microbes, particularly spores, exhibit inactivation kinetics that are not log linear. This has led to alternative modeling approaches, such as the biphasic and Weibull models, that relax strong log-linear assumptions. Using a statistical framework, we developed a novel log-quadratic model, which approximates the biphasic and Weibull models and provides additional physiological interpretability. As a statistical linear model, the log-quadratic model is relatively simple to fit and straightforwardly provides confidence intervals for its fitted values. It allows a DT-like value to be derived, even from data that exhibit obvious "tailing." We also showed how existing models of non-log-linear microbial inactivation, such as the Weibull model, can fit into a statistical linear model framework that dramatically simplifies their solution. We applied the log-quadratic model to thermal inactivation data for the spore-forming bacterium Clostridium botulinum and evaluated its merits compared with those of popular previously described approaches. The log-quadratic model was used as the basis of a secondary model that can capture the dependence of microbial inactivation kinetics on temperature. This model, in turn, was linked to models of spore inactivation of Sapru et al. and Rodriguez et al. that posit different physiological states for spores within a population. We believe that the log-quadratic model provides a useful framework in which to test vitalistic and mechanistic hypotheses of inactivation by thermal and other processes. Copyright © 2009, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

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Objectives: To assess socio-economic differences in three components of nutrition knowledge, i.e. knowledge of (i) the relationship between diet and disease, (ii) the nutrient content of foods and (iii) dietary guideline recommendations; furthermore, to determine if socio-economic differences in nutrition knowledge contribute to inequalities in food purchasing choices. Design: The cross-sectional study considered household food purchasing,nutrition knowledge, socio-economic and demographic information. Household food purchasing choices were summarised by three indices, based on self-reported purchasing of sixteen groceries, nineteen fruits and twenty-one vegetables. Socio-economic position (SEP) was measured by household income and education. Associations between SEP, nutrition knowledge and food purchasing were examined using general linear models adjusted for age, gender, household type and household size. Setting: Brisbane, Australia in 2000. Subjects: Main household food shoppers (n 1003, response rate 66?4 %), located in fifty small areas (Census Collectors Districts). Results: Shoppers in households of low SEP made food purchasing choices that were less consistent with dietary guideline recommendations: they were more likely to purchase grocery foods comparatively higher in salt, sugar and fat, and lower in fibre, and they purchased a narrower range of fruits and vegetables. Those of higher SEP had greater nutrition knowledge and this factor attenuated most associations between SEP and food purchasing choices. Among nutrition knowledge factors, knowledge of the relationship between diet and disease made the greatest and most consistent contribution to explaining socio-economic differences in food purchasing. Conclusions: Addressing inequalities in nutrition knowledge is likely to reduce socio-economic differences in compliance with dietary guidelines. Improving knowledge of the relationship between diet and disease appears to be a particularly relevant focus for health promotion aimed to reduce socio-economic differences in diet and related health inequalities.

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Objectives To examine the relationship between mandatory naptimes in child care and children's nighttime sleep duration, both concurrently and 12 months later once in school. Methods A sample of 168 children (50-72 months; 55% males) attending licensed child care centers were observed across their morning and throughout their scheduled naptime. Mandatory naptime was determined as the period in which children were not permitted any alternative activity except lying on their bed. Teachers reported each child's napping in child care. Nighttime and total sleep duration was reported by parents at 2 time points, in child care and in the second semester of their first school year. General linear models were used to examine group differences in sleep duration between children experiencing 0 to 60 minutes and >60 minutes of mandatory naptime, adjusting for key confounders. Path analysis was conducted to test a mediation model in which mandatory naptime is associated with nighttime sleep duration through increased napping in child care. Results Children who experienced >60 minutes of mandatory naptime in child care had significantly less nighttime sleep than those with 0 to 60 minutes of mandatory naptime. This difference persisted at 12-month follow-up, once children were in school. Napping in child care mediated the relationship between mandatory naptime and duration of nighttime sleep. Conclusions Exposure to mandatory naptimes of >60 minutes in child care is associated with decreased duration of nighttime sleep that endures beyond child care attendance. Given the large number of children who attend child care, sleep practices within these settings present an important focus for child health.

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Index tracking is an investment approach where the primary objective is to keep portfolio return as close as possible to a target index without purchasing all index components. The main purpose is to minimize the tracking error between the returns of the selected portfolio and a benchmark. In this paper, quadratic as well as linear models are presented for minimizing the tracking error. The uncertainty is considered in the input data using a tractable robust framework that controls the level of conservatism while maintaining linearity. The linearity of the proposed robust optimization models allows a simple implementation of an ordinary optimization software package to find the optimal robust solution. The proposed model of this paper employs Morgan Stanley Capital International Index as the target index and the results are reported for six national indices including Japan, the USA, the UK, Germany, Switzerland and France. The performance of the proposed models is evaluated using several financial criteria e.g. information ratio, market ratio, Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio. The preliminary results demonstrate that the proposed model lowers the amount of tracking error while raising values of portfolio performance measures.