Sensitivity of organic matter decomposition to warming varies with its quality

The relationship between organic matter (OM) lability and temperature sensitivity is disputed, with recent observations suggesting that responses of relatively more resistant OM to increased temperature could be greater than, equivalent to, or less than responses of relatively more labile OM. This lack of clear understanding limits the ability to forecast carbon (C) cycle responses to temperature changes. Here, we derive a novel approach (denoted Q(10-q)) that accounts for changes in OM quality during decomposition and use it to analyze data from three independent sources. Results from new laboratory soil incubations (labile Q(10-q)=2.1 +/- 0.2; more resistant Q(10-q)=3.8 +/- 0.3) and reanalysis of data from other soil incubations reported in the literature (labile Q(10-q)=2.3; more resistant Q(10-q)=3.3) demonstrate that temperature sensitivity of soil OM decomposition increases with decreasing soil OM lability. Analysis of data from a cross-site, field litter bag decomposition study (labile Q(10-q)=3.3 +/- 0.2; resistant Q(10-q)=4.9 +/- 0.2) shows that litter OM follows the same pattern, with greater temperature sensitivity for more resistant litter OM. Furthermore, the initial response of cultivated soils, presumably containing less labile soil OM (Q(10-q)=2.4 +/- 0.3) was greater than that for undisturbed grassland soils (Q(10-q)=1.7 +/- 0.1). Soil C losses estimated using this approach will differ from previous estimates as a function of the magnitude of the temperature increase and the proportion of whole soil OM comprised of compounds sensitive to temperature over that temperature range. It is likely that increased temperature has already prompted release of significant amounts of C to the atmosphere as CO2. Our results indicate that future losses of litter and soil C may be even greater than previously supposed.

The capture/retention investigation of a gross pollutant trap

A technique was developed to investigate the capture/retention characteristic of a gross pollutant trap (GPT) with fully and partially blocked internal screens. Custom modified spheres of variable density filled with liquid were released into the GPT inlet and monitored at the outlet. The outlet data shows that the capture/retention performances of a GPT with fully blocked screens deteriorate rapidly. During higher flow rates, screen blockages below 68% approach maximum efficiency. At lower flow rates, the high performance trend is reversed and the variation in behaviour of pollutants with different densities becomes more noticeable. Additional experiments with a second upstream inlet configured GPT showed an improved capture/retention performance. It was also noted that the bypass allows the incoming pollutants to escape when the GPT is blocked. This useful feature prevents upstream blockages between cleaning intervals.

Examination of relationships between urban form, household activities, and time allocation in the Atlanta Metropolitan Region

A substantial body of research is focused on understanding the relationships between socio-demographics, land-use characteristics, and mode specific attributes on travel mode choice and time-use patterns. Residential and commercial densities, inter-mixing of land uses, and route directness in conjunction with transportation performance characteristics interact to influence accessibility to destinations as well as time spent traveling and engaging in activities. This study uniquely examines the activity durations undertaken for out-of-home subsistence; maintenance, and discretionary activities. Also examined are total tour durations (summing all activity categories within a tour). Cross-sectional activities are obtained from household activity travel survey data from the Atlanta Metropolitan Region. Time durations allocated to weekdays and weekends are compared. The censoring and endogeneity between activity categories and within individuals are captured using multiple equations Tobit models. The analysis and modeling reveal that land-use characteristics such as net residential density and the number of commercial parcels within a kilometer of a residence are associated with differences in weekday and weekend time-use allocations. Household type and structure are significant predictors across the three activity categories, but not for overall travel times. Tour characteristics such as time-of-day and primary travel mode of the tours also affect traveler's out-of-home activity-tour time-use patterns.

Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: Example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea

This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

Alleviating ‘overfitting’ via genetically-regularised neural network

A hybrid genetic algorithm/scaled conjugate gradient regularisation method is designed to alleviate ANN `over-fitting'. In application to day-ahead load forecasting, the proposed algorithm performs better than early-stopping and Bayesian regularisation, showing promising initial results.

The urban littoral frontier : land reclamation in the history of human settlements

The urban waterfront may be regarded as the littoral frontier of human settlement. Typically, over the years, it advances, sometimes retreats, where terrestrial and aquatic processes interact and frequently contest this margin of occupation. Because most towns and cities are sited beside water bodies, many of these urban centers on or close to the sea, their physical expansion is constrained by the existence of aquatic areas in one or more directions from the core. It is usually much easier for new urban development to occur along or inland from the waterfront. Where other physical constraints, such as rugged hills or mountains, make expansion difficult or expensive, building at greater densities or construction on steep slopes is a common response. This kind of development, though technically feasible, is usually more expensive than construction on level or gently sloping land, however. Moreover, there are many reasons for developing along the shore or riverfront in preference to using sites further inland. The high cost of developing existing dry land that presents serious construction difficulties is one reason for creating new land from adjacent areas that are permanently or periodically under water. Another reason is the relatively high value of artificially created land close to the urban centre when compared with the value of existing developable space at a greater distance inland. The creation of space for development is not the only motivation for urban expansion into aquatic areas. Commonly, urban places on the margins of the sea, estuaries, rivers or great lakes are, or were once, ports where shipping played an important role in the economy. The demand for deep waterfronts to allow ships to berth and for adjacent space to accommodate various port facilities has encouraged the advance of the urban land area across marginal shallows in ports around the world. The space and locational demands of port related industry and commerce, too, have contributed to this process. Often closely related to these developments is the generation of waste, including domestic refuse, unwanted industrial by-products, site formation and demolition debris and harbor dredgings. From ancient times, the foreshore has been used as a disposal area for waste from nearby settlements, a practice that continues on a huge scale today. Land formed in this way has long been used for urban development, despite problems that can arise from the nature of the dumped material and the way in which it is deposited. Disposal of waste material is a major factor in the creation of new urban land. Pollution of the foreshore and other water margin wetlands in this way encouraged the idea that the reclamation of these areas may be desirable on public health grounds. With reference to examples from various parts of the world, the historical development of the urban littoral frontier and its effects on the morphology and character of towns and cities are illustrated and discussed. The threat of rising sea levels and the heritage value of many waterfront areas are other considerations that are addressed.

Solid freeform fabrication of hydrogel structures and cell encapsulation

We aim to fabricate computer-controlled hydrogel structures containing viable encapsulated cells to overcome the low seeding densities which are inherent to most pre-fabricated scaffold systems.

Confocal microscopy of the bulbar conjunctiva in contact lens wear

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the capabilities of laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) for undertaking qualitative and quantitative investigations of the response of the bulbar conjunctiva to contact lens wear. Methods: LSCM was used to observe and measure morphological characteristics of the bulbar conjunctiva of 11 asymptomatic soft contact lens wearers and 11 healthy volunteer subjects (controls). Results: The appearance of the bulbar conjunctiva is consistent with known histology of this tissue based on light and electron microscopy. The thickness of the bulbar conjunctival epithelium of lens wearers (30.9 ± 1.1 μm) was less than that of controls (32.9 ± 1.1 μm) (P < 0.0001). Superficial and basal bulbar conjunctival epithelial cell densities in contact lens wearers were 91% and 79% higher, respectively, than that in controls (P < 0.0001). No difference was observed in goblet and Langerhans cell density between lens wearers and controls. Conjunctival microcysts were observed in greater numbers, and were larger in size, in lens wearers compared with controls. Conclusions: The effects of contact lens wear on the human bulbar conjunctiva can be investigated effectively at a cellular level using LSCM. The observations in this study suggest that contact lens wear can induce changes in the bulbar conjunctiva such as epithelial thinning and accelerated formation and enlargement of microcysts, increased epithelial cell density, but has no impact on goblet or Langerhans cell density.

Ryanodine receptor phosphorylation in human heart failure

Heart failure is a complex disorder, characterized by activation of the sympathetic nervous system, leading to dysregulated Ca2+ homeostasis in cardiac myocytes and tissue remodeling. In a variety of diseases, cardiac malfunction is associated with aberrant fluxes of Ca2+ across both the surface membrane and the internal Ca2+ store, the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR). One prominent hypothesis residues is that in heart failure, the activity of the ryanodine receptor (RyR2) Ca2+ release channel in the SR is increased due to excess phosphorylation and that this contributes to excess SR Ca2+ leak in diastole, reduced SR Ca2+ load and decreased contractility (Huke & Bers, 2008). There is controversy over which serine residues in RyR2 are hyperphosphorylated in animal models of heart failure and whether this is via the CaMKII or the PKA-linked signaling pathway. S2808, S2814 and S2030 in RyR2 have been variously claimed to be hyperphosphorylated. Our aim was to examine the degree of phosphorylation of these residues in RyR2 from failing human hearts. The use of human tissue was approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee, The Prince Charles Hospital, EC28114. Left ventricular tissue samples were obtained from an explanted heart of a patient with endstage heart failure (Emery Dreifuss Muscular Dystrophy with cardiomyopathy) and non-failing tissue was from a patient with cystic fibrosis undergoing heart-lung transplantation with no history of heart disease. SR vesicles were prepared as described by Laver et al. (1995) and examined with SDS-Page and Western Blot. Transferred proteins were probed with antibodies to detect total protein phosphorylation, phosphorylation of RyR2 serine residues S2808, S2814, S2030 and for the key proteins calsequestrin, triadin, junctin and FKBP12.6. To avoid membrane stripping artifact, each membrane was exposed to one phosphorylation-specific antibody and signal densities quantified using Bio-Rad Quantity One software. We found no distinguishable difference between failing and healthy hearts in the protein expression levels of RyR2, triadin, junctin or calsequestrin. We found an expected upregulation of total RyR2 phosphorylation in the failing heart sample, compared to a matched amount of RyR2 (quantified using densiometry) in healthy heart. Probing with antibodies detecting only the phosphorylated form of the specific RyR2 residues showed that the increase in total RyR2 phosphorylation in the failing heart was due to hyperphosphorylation of S2808 and S2814. We found that S2030 phosphorylation levels were unchanged in human heart failure. Interestingly, we found that S2030 has a basal level of phosphorylation in the healthy human heart, different from the absence of basal phosphorylation recently reported in rodent heart (Huke & Bers, 2008). Finally, preliminary results indicate that less FKBP 12.6 is associated with RyR2 in the failing heart, possibly as a consequence of PKA activation. In conclusion, residues S2808 and S2814 are hyperphosphorylated in human heart failure, presumably due to upregulation of the CaMKII and/or PKA signaling pathway as a result of chronic activation of the sympathetic nervous system. Such changes in RyR2 phosphorylation are believed to contribute to the leaky RyR2 phenotype associated with heart failure, which increases the incidence of arrhythmia and contributes to the severely impaired contractile performance of the failing heart. Huke S & Bers DM. (2008). Ryanodine receptor phosphorylation at serine 2030, 2808 and 2814 in rat cardiomyocytes. Biochemical and Biophysical Research Communications 376, 80-85. Laver DR, Roden LD, Ahern GP, Eager KR, Junankar PR & Dulhunty AF. (1995). Cytoplasmic Ca2+ inhibits the ryanodine receptor from cardiac muscle. Journal of Membrane Biology 147, 7-22. Proceedings

Climate variability and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in northeastern China

Background: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic variables. However, few studies have examined the quantitative relationship between climate variation and HFRS transmission. ---------- Objective: We examined the potential impact of climate variability on HFRS transmission and developed climate-based forecasting models for HFRS in northeastern China. ---------- Methods: We obtained data on monthly counts of reported HFRS cases in Elunchun and Molidawahaner counties for 1997–2007 from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention and climate data from the Chinese Bureau of Meteorology. Cross-correlations assessed crude associations between climate variables, including rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), relative humidity (RH), and the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) and monthly HFRS cases over a range of lags. We used time-series Poisson regression models to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables to HFRS transmission. ----------- Results: Cross-correlation analyses showed that rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI were significantly associated with monthly HFRS cases with lags of 3–5 months in both study areas. The results of Poisson regression indicated that after controlling for the autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend, rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI with lags of 3–5 months were associated with HFRS in both study areas. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS. ---------- Conclusions: Climate variability plays a significant role in HFRS transmission in northeastern China. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

Elimination of dengue by community programs using Mesocyclops(Copepoda) against Aedes aegypti in central Vietnam

From September 2000 to June 2003, a community-based program for dengue control using local predacious copepods of the genus Mesocyclops was conducted in three rural communes in the central Vietnam provinces of Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, and Khanh Hoa. Post-project, three subsequent entomologic surveys were conducted until March 2004. The number of households and residents in the communes were 5,913 and 27,167, respectively, and dengue notification rates for these communes from 1996 were as high as 2,418.5 per 100,000 persons. Following knowledge, attitude, and practice evaluations, surveys of water storage containers indicated that Mesocyclops spp. already occurred in 3-17% and that large tanks up to 2,000 liters, 130-300-liter jars, wells, and some 220-liter metal drums were the most productive habitats for Aedes aegypti. With technical support, the programs were driven by communal management committees, health collaborators, schoolteachers, and pupils. From quantitative estimates of the standing crop of third and fourth instars from 100 households, Ae. aegypti were reduced by approximately 90% by year 1, 92.3-98.6% by year 2, and Ae. aegypti immature forms had been eliminated from two of three communes by June 2003. Similarly, from resting adult collections from 100 households, densities were reduced to 0-1 per commune. By March 2004, two communes with no larvae had small numbers but the third was negative; one adult was collected in each of two communes while one became negative. Absolute estimates of third and fourth instars at the three intervention communes and one left untreated had significant correlations (P = 0.009-< 0.001) with numbers of adults aspirated from inside houses on each of 15 survey periods. By year 1, the incidence of dengue disease in the treated communes was reduced by 76.7% compared with non-intervention communes within the same districts, and no dengue was evident in 2002 and 2003, compared with 112.8 and 14.4 cases per 100,000 at district level. Since we had similar success in northern Vietnam from 1998 to 2000, this study demonstrates that this control model is broadly acceptable and achievable at community level but vigilance is required post-project to prevent reinfestation.

Cell density alters matrix accumulation in two distinct fractions and the mechanical integrity of alginate-chondrocyte constructs

Chondrocyte density in articular cartilage is known to change with the development and growth of the tissue and may play an important role in the formation of a functional extracellular matrix (ECM). The objective of this study was to determine how initial chondrocyte density in an alginate hydrogel affects the matrix composition, its distribution between the cell-associated (CM) and further removed matrix (FRM) fractions, and the tensile mechanical properties of the developing engineered cartilage. Alginate constructs containing primary bovine chondrocytes at densities of 0, 4, 16, and 64 million cells/ml were fabricated and cultured for 1 or 2 weeks, at which time structural, biochemical, and mechanical properties were analyzed. Both matrix content and distribution varied with the initial cell density. Increasing cell density resulted in an increasing content of collagen and sulfated-glycosaminoglycan (GAG) and an increasing proportion of these molecules localized in the CM. While the equilibrium tensile modulus of cell-free alginate did not change with time in culture, the constructs with highest cell density were 116% stiffer than cell-free controls after 2 weeks of culture. The equilibrium tensile modulus was positively correlated with total collagen (r2 = 0.47, p < 0.001) and GAG content (r2 = 0.68, p < 0.001), and these relationships were enhanced when analyzing only those matrix molecules in the CM fraction (r2 = 0.60 and 0.72 for collagen and GAG, respectively, each p < 0.001). Overall, the results of this study indicate that initial cell density has a considerable effect on the developing composition, structure, and function of alginate–chondrocyte constructs.

Machine learning techniques to improve software quality

A significant proportion of the cost of software development is due to software testing and maintenance. This is in part the result of the inevitable imperfections due to human error, lack of quality during the design and coding of software, and the increasing need to reduce faults to improve customer satisfaction in a competitive marketplace. Given the cost and importance of removing errors improvements in fault detection and removal can be of significant benefit. The earlier in the development process faults can be found, the less it costs to correct them and the less likely other faults are to develop. This research aims to make the testing process more efficient and effective by identifying those software modules most likely to contain faults, allowing testing efforts to be carefully targeted. This is done with the use of machine learning algorithms which use examples of fault prone and not fault prone modules to develop predictive models of quality. In order to learn the numerical mapping between module and classification, a module is represented in terms of software metrics. A difficulty in this sort of problem is sourcing software engineering data of adequate quality. In this work, data is obtained from two sources, the NASA Metrics Data Program, and the open source Eclipse project. Feature selection before learning is applied, and in this area a number of different feature selection methods are applied to find which work best. Two machine learning algorithms are applied to the data - Naive Bayes and the Support Vector Machine - and predictive results are compared to those of previous efforts and found to be superior on selected data sets and comparable on others. In addition, a new classification method is proposed, Rank Sum, in which a ranking abstraction is laid over bin densities for each class, and a classification is determined based on the sum of ranks over features. A novel extension of this method is also described based on an observed polarising of points by class when rank sum is applied to training data to convert it into 2D rank sum space. SVM is applied to this transformed data to produce models the parameters of which can be set according to trade-off curves to obtain a particular performance trade-off.

CRE workshop part I : comprehending the context

CRE (Corporate Real Estate) decisions should not simply deal with the management of individual facilities, but should especially be concerned with the relationships that a facility has with the corporate business strategy and with the larger real estate markets. Both the practice and the research of CRE management have historically tended to emphasize real estate issues and ignore the corporation’s business issues, causing real estate strategies to be disconnected from the goal and priorities of the corporation’s senior management. With regard to office cycles, a large number of econometric models have been proposed during the last 20 years. However, evidence from historical data and previous research in the field of real estate forecasting seem to agree only on one thing: the existence of interconnected property cycles that are concentrated on vacancy rates (demand). Vacancy also represents the linkage between the inadequacy of existing CRE strategies and the inability of existing econometric models to correctly forecast office rent cycles. Business cycles, across different industry sectors, have decreased from 5-7 years to 1-3 years today, yet corporations are still entering into leases of 5-10 years, causing hidden vacancy levels to rise. Possibly, once CRE strategies are totally in tune with the overall business, hidden vacancy will fade away providing forecasters with better quality data. The aim of this paper is not to investigate whether and when the supply-side will eventually evolve to provide flexible occupancy arrangements to accommodate corporate agility requirements, but rather to propose a general framework for corporations to improve the decision making process of their CRE executives, while emphasizing the importance of understanding the context as a precondition to effective real estate involvements.