Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Identity and text : developing self-conscious readers

Globalisation and societal change suggest the language and literacy skills needed to make meaning in our lives are increasing and changing radically. Multiliteracies are influencing the future of literacy teaching. One aspect of the pedagogy of multiliteracies is recruiting learners’ previous and current experiences as an integral part of the learning experience. This paper examines the implications of results from a project that examined student responses to a postmodern picture book, in particular, ways teachers might develop students’ self-knowledge about reading. It draws on Freebody and Luke’s Four Resources Model of Reading and recently developed models for teaching multiliteracies.

The Sociology of Cosmopolitanism:Globalization, Identity, Culture and Government

The dream of a cosmopolitical utopia has been around for thousands of years. Yet the promise of being locally situated and at the same time globally connected and mobile has never seemed more possible than it is today. The question remains as to whether it is positive and realistic for us to have multiple loyalties. Can we sustain community and solidarity with our neighbours while we look beyond our nation? And if we can't - or won't – consider distant strangers as part of our own world, are there increasingly dire consequences? This book reconnects classical sociological theory and contemporary ideas on mobility, otherness, material assemblages, consumption and surveillance to render the idea of a global cosmopolitan utopia amenable to sociological investigation. The book takes a realistic approach to the development of cosmopolitical arrangements. It embraces the imaginative impulses the cosmopolitan dream provides, but takes into account the political, ethical and cultural dimensions of such cosmopolitan developments. In revisiting the relevance of classical sociological approaches in the context of contemporary theoretical challenges, the distinctive approach this book takes to understanding cosmopolitanism will be of use to scholars and students alike.

Demographic category membership and leadership in small groups : a social identity analysis

Developing the social identity theory of leadership (e.g., [Hogg, M. A. (2001). A social identity theory of leadership. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 5, 184–200]), an experiment (N=257) tested the hypothesis that as group members identify more strongly with their group (salience) their evaluations of leadership effectiveness become more strongly influenced by the extent to which their demographic stereotype-based impressions of their leader match the norm of the group (prototypicality). Participants, with more or less traditional gender attitudes (orientation), were members, under high or low group salience conditions (salience), of non-interactive laboratory groups that had “instrumental” or “expressive” group norms (norm), and a male or female leader (leader gender). As predicted, these four variables interacted significantly to affect perceptions of leadership effectiveness. Reconfiguration of the eight conditions formed by orientation, norm and leader gender produced a single prototypicality variable. Irrespective of participant gender, prototypical leaders were considered more effective in high then low salience groups, and in high salience groups prototypical leaders were more effective than less prototypical leaders. Alternative explanations based on status characteristics and role incongruity theory do not account well for the findings. Implications of these results for the glass ceiling effect and for a wider social identity analysis of the impact of demographic group membership on leadership in small groups are discussed.

Expert performance in sport and the dynamics of talent development

Research on expertise, talent identification and development has tended to be mono-disciplinary, typically adopting adopting neurogenetic deterministic or environmentalist positions, with an over-riding focus on operational issues. In this paper the validity of dualist positions on sport expertise is evaluated. It is argued that, to advance understanding of expertise and talent development, a shift towards a multi-disciplinary and integrative science focus is necessary, along with the development of a comprehensive multi-disciplinary theoretical rationale. Here we elucidate dynamical systems theory as a multi-disciplinary theoretical rationale for capturing how multiple interacting constraints can shape the development of expert performers. This approach suggests that talent development programmes should eschew the notion of common optimal performance models, emphasise the individual nature of pathways to expertise, and identify the range of interacting constraints that impinge on performance potential of individual athletes, rather than evaluating current performance on physical tests referenced to group norms.

Skydweller and representations of the adolescent crisis : group identity versus alienation

This document contains a creative work – the text of a young adult novel, Skydweller – and an exegesis discussing the ways in which identity and the adolescent crisis of group identity versus alienation are represented in young adult science fiction/fantasy novels.

QUT speaker identity verification system for EVALITA 2009

This document outlines the system submitted by the Speech and Audio Research Laboratory at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) for the Speaker Identity Verication: Application task of EVALITA 2009. This submission consisted of a score-level fusion of three component systems, a joint-factor GMM system and two SVM systems using GLDS and GMM supervector kernels. Development and evaluation results are presented, demonstrating the effectiveness of this fused system approach.

The impact of distributional preferences on (experimental) markets for expert services

Theory predicts that efficiency prevails on credence goods markets if customers are able to verify which quality they receive from an expert seller. In a series of experiments with endogenous prices we observe that verifiability fails to result in efficient provision behaviour and leads to very similar results as a setting without verifiability. Some sellers always provide appropriate treatment even if own money maximization calls for over- or undertreatment. Overall our endogenous-price-results suggests that both inequality aversion and a taste for efficiency play an important role for experts’ provision behaviour. We contrast the implications of those two motivations theoretically and discriminate between them empirically using a fixed-price design. We then classify experimental experts according to their provision behaviour.

Pre-service teacher education and the development of middle school teacher identity : an exploratory study

This research study investigated the factors that influenced the development of teacher identity in a small cohort of mature-aged graduate pre-service teachers over the course of a one-year Graduate Diploma program (Middle Years). It sought to illuminate the social and relational dynamics of these pre-service teachers’ experiences as they began new ways of being and learning during a newly introduced one-year Graduate Diploma program. A relational-ontological perspective underpinned the relational-cultural framework that was applied in a workshop program as an integral part of this research. A relational-ontological perspective suggests that the development of teacher identity is to be construed more as an ontological process than an epistemological one. Its focus is more on questions surrounding the person and their ‘becoming’ a teacher than about the knowledge they have or will come to have. Hence, drawing on work by researchers such as Alsup (2006), Gilligan, (1982), Isaacs, (2007), Miller (1976), Noddings, (2005), Stout (2001), and Taylor, (1989), teacher identity was defined as an individual pre-service teacher’s unique sense of self as a teacher that included his or her beliefs about teaching and learning (Alsup, 2006; Stout, 2001; Walkington, 2005). Case-study was the preferred methodology within which this research project was framed, and narrative research was used as a method to document the way teacher identity was shaped and negotiated in discursive environments such as teacher education programs, prior experiences, classroom settings and the practicum. The data that was collected included student narratives, student email written reflections, and focus group dialogue. The narrative approach applied in this research context provided the depth of data needed to understand the nature of the mature-aged pre-service teachers’ emerging teacher identities and experiences in the graduate diploma program. Findings indicated that most of the mature-aged graduate pre-service teachers came in to the one-year graduate diploma program with a strong sense of personal and professional selves and well-established reasons why they had chosen to teach Middle Years. Their choice of program involved an expectation of support and welcome to a middle-school community and culture. Two critical issues that emerged from the pre-service teachers’ narratives were the importance they placed on the human support including the affirmation of themselves and their emerging teacher identities. Evidence from this study suggests that the lack of recognition of preservice teachers’ personal and professional selves during the graduate diploma program inhibited the development of a positive middle-school teacher identity. However, a workshop program developed for the participants in this research and addressing a range of practical concerns to beginning teachers offered them a space where they felt both a sense of belonging to a community and where their thoughts and beliefs were recognized and valued. Thus, the workshops provided participants with the positive social and relational dynamics necessary to support them in their developing teacher identities. The overall findings of this research study strongly indicate a need for a relational support structure based on a relational-ontological perspective to be built into the overall course structure of Graduate Pre-service Diplomas in Education to support the development of teacher identity. Such a support structure acknowledges that the pre-service teacher’s learning and formation is socially embedded, relational, and a continual, lifelong process.

Developing a hybrid expert system program to aid in the design of plastic injection molding process

Experts in injection molding often refer to previous solutions to find a mold design similar to the current mold and use previous successful molding process parameters with intuitive adjustment and modification as a start for the new molding application. This approach saves a substantial amount of time and cost in experimental based corrective actions which are required in order to reach optimum molding conditions. A Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) System can perform the same task by retrieving a similar case which is applied to the new case from the case library and uses the modification rules to adapt a solution to the new case. Therefore, a CBR System can simulate human e~pertise in injection molding process design. This research is aimed at developing an interactive Hybrid Expert System to reduce expert dependency needed on the production floor. The Hybrid Expert System (HES) is comprised of CBR, flow analysis, post-processor and trouble shooting systems. The HES can provide the first set of operating parameters in order to achieve moldability condition and producing moldings free of stress cracks and warpage. In this work C++ programming language is used to implement the expert system. The Case-Based Reasoning sub-system is constructed to derive the optimum magnitude of process parameters in the cavity. Toward this end the Flow Analysis sub-system is employed to calculate the pressure drop and temperature difference in the feed system to determine the required magnitude of parameters at the nozzle. The Post-Processor is implemented to convert the molding parameters to machine setting parameters. The parameters designed by HES are implemented using the injection molding machine. In the presence of any molding defect, a trouble shooting subsystem can determine which combination of process parameters must be changed iii during the process to deal with possible variations. Constraints in relation to the application of this HES are as follows. - flow length (L) constraint: 40 mm < L < I 00 mm, - flow thickness (Th) constraint: -flow type: - material types: I mm < Th < 4 mm, unidirectional flow, High Impact Polystyrene (HIPS) and Acrylic. In order to test the HES, experiments were conducted and satisfactory results were obtained.