Look before you leap : a confidence-based method for selecting species criticality while avoiding negative populations in τ-leaping

The stochastic simulation algorithm was introduced by Gillespie and in a different form by Kurtz. There have been many attempts at accelerating the algorithm without deviating from the behavior of the simulated system. The crux of the explicit τ-leaping procedure is the use of Poisson random variables to approximate the number of occurrences of each type of reaction event during a carefully selected time period, τ. This method is acceptable providing the leap condition, that no propensity function changes “significantly” during any time-step, is met. Using this method there is a possibility that species numbers can, artificially, become negative. Several recent papers have demonstrated methods that avoid this situation. One such method classifies, as critical, those reactions in danger of sending species populations negative. At most, one of these critical reactions is allowed to occur in the next time-step. We argue that the criticality of a reactant species and its dependent reaction channels should be related to the probability of the species number becoming negative. This way only reactions that, if fired, produce a high probability of driving a reactant population negative are labeled critical. The number of firings of more reaction channels can be approximated using Poisson random variables thus speeding up the simulation while maintaining the accuracy. In implementing this revised method of criticality selection we make use of the probability distribution from which the random variable describing the change in species number is drawn. We give several numerical examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of our new method.

Identifying parent perspectives to guide active travel intervention with small populations : case study in Denver, Colorado

This paper investigates a strategy for guiding school-based active travel intervention. School-based active travel programs address the travel behaviors and perceptions of small target populations (i.e., at individual schools) so they can encourage people to walk or bike. Thus, planners need to know as much as possible about the behaviors and perceptions of their target populations. However, existing strategies for modeling travel behavior and segmenting audiences typically work with larger populations and may not capture the attitudinal diversity of smaller groups. This case study used Q technique to identify salient travel-related attitude types among parents at an elementary school in Denver, Colorado; 161 parents presented their perspectives about school travel by rank-ordering 36 statements from strongly disagree to strongly agree in a normalized distribution, single centered around no opinion. Thirty-nine respondents' cases were selected for case-wise cluster analysis in SPSS according to criteria that made them most likely to walk: proximity to school, grade, and bus service. Analysis revealed five core perspectives that were then correlated with the larger respondent pool: optimistic walkers, fair-weather walkers, drivers of necessity, determined drivers, and fence sitters. Core perspectives are presented—characterized by parents' opinions, personal characteristics, and reported travel behaviors—and recommendations are made for possible intervention approaches. The study concludes that Q technique provides a fine-grained assessment of travel behavior for small populations, which would benefit small-scale behavioral interventions

Models of collective cell motion for cell populations with different aspect ratio : diffusion, proliferation and travelling waves

Continuum, partial differential equation models are often used to describe the collective motion of cell populations, with various types of motility represented by the choice of diffusion coefficient, and cell proliferation captured by the source terms. Previously, the choice of diffusion coefficient has been largely arbitrary, with the decision to choose a particular linear or nonlinear form generally based on calibration arguments rather than making any physical connection with the underlying individual-level properties of the cell motility mechanism. In this work we provide a new link between individual-level models, which account for important cell properties such as varying cell shape and volume exclusion, and population-level partial differential equation models. We work in an exclusion process framework, considering aligned, elongated cells that may occupy more than one lattice site, in order to represent populations of agents with different sizes. Three different idealizations of the individual-level mechanism are proposed, and these are connected to three different partial differential equations, each with a different diffusion coefficient; one linear, one nonlinear and degenerate and one nonlinear and nondegenerate. We test the ability of these three models to predict the population level response of a cell spreading problem for both proliferative and nonproliferative cases. We also explore the potential of our models to predict long time travelling wave invasion rates and extend our results to two dimensional spreading and invasion. Our results show that each model can accurately predict density data for nonproliferative systems, but that only one does so for proliferative systems. Hence great care must be taken to predict density data for with varying cell shape.

How does the size and shape of local populations in China compare to general anthropometric surveys currently used for product design?

Anthropometry has long been used for a range of ergonomic applications & product design. Although products are often designed for specific cohorts, anthropometric data are typically sourced from large scale surveys representative of the general population. Additionally, few data are available for emerging markets like China and India. This study measured 80 Chinese males that were representative of a specific cohort targeted for the design of a new product. Thirteen anthropometric measurements were recorded and compared to two large databases that represented a general population, a Chinese database and a Western database. Substantial differences were identified between the Chinese males measured in this study and both databases. The subjects were substantially taller, heavier and broader than subjects in the older Chinese database. However, they were still substantially smaller, lighter and thinner than Western males. Data from current Western anthropometric surveys are unlikely to accurately represent the target population for product designers and manufacturers in emerging markets like China.

Design and rationale of a Prospective, Observational European Multicenter study on the efficacy of acute surgical decompression after traumatic Spinal Cord Injury: the SCI-POEM study

Objectives:Despite many years of research, there is currently no treatment available that results in major neurological or functional recovery after traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI). In particular, no conclusive data related to the role of the timing of decompressive surgery, and the impact of injury severity on its benefit, have been published to date. This paper presents a protocol that was designed to examine the hypothesized association between the timing of surgical decompression and the extent of neurological recovery in tSCI patients.Study design: The SCI-POEM study is a Prospective, Observational European Multicenter comparative cohort study. This study compares acute (<12 h) versus non-acute (>12 h, <2 weeks) decompressive surgery in patients with a traumatic spinal column injury and concomitant spinal cord injury. The sample size calculation was based on a representative European patient cohort of 492 tSCI patients. During a 4-year period, 300 patients will need to be enrolled from 10 trauma centers across Europe. The primary endpoint is lower-extremity motor score as assessed according to the 'International standards for neurological classification of SCI' at 12 months after injury. Secondary endpoints include motor, sensory, imaging and functional outcomes at 3, 6 and 12 months after injury.Conclusion:In order to minimize bias and reduce the impact of confounders, special attention is paid to key methodological principles in this study protocol. A significant difference in safety and/or efficacy endpoints will provide meaningful information to clinicians, as this would confirm the hypothesis that rapid referral to and treatment in specialized centers result in important improvements in tSCI patients.Spinal Cord advance online publication, 17 April 2012; doi:10.1038/sc.2012.34.

Reconfigurations of Penality: The Ongoing Case of Women's Imprisonment

Illustrating their arguments with empirical examples drawn from two recent research projects—one cross-European, the other Scottish—the authors argue that the new multi-layering of carceral forms in both prison and the community is one major, but under-explored, cause of continuing increases in women’s prison populations. Whether it is because sentencers believe the reintegration industry’s rhetoric about the effectiveness of in-prison programmes in ‘reintegrating’ ex-prisoners, or whether, conversely, it is because sentencers are reluctant to award transcarceral and over-demanding community sentences which set women up to fail, the result is the same—more women go to prison.

Democratization and Violence: European and International Perspectives

It is a startling fact that when in the mid-80s a ‘third wave’ of democracy took hold in Latin America and Eastern Europe, both democracy and violence were simultaneously on the rise worldwide. Almost by definition democracies represent an institutionalized framework and a way of life that ensures non-violent means to share power between communities of people with widely differing values and beliefs. As Keane (2004) points out, ‘violence is anathema to [democracy’s] spirit and substance’ (p. 1). Accordingly, the process of democratization was accompanied by expectations that violence would generally decrease, and that these countries would embark on a process of reducing levels of violence as Western European countries had done earlier in the 19th and 20th century.