Traffic safety risks trends and patterns analysis on motorways

Crashes that occur on motorways contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestion. Hence, reducing the frequency of crashes assist in addressing congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Analysing traffic conditions and discovering risky traffic trends and patterns are essential basics in crash likelihood estimations studies and still require more attention and investigation. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques, that there is a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways, compare them with normal traffic trends, and that this knowledge has the potentiality to improve the accuracy of existing crash likelihood estimation models, and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with crashes corresponding traffic flow data using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic trends (traffic speed time series) revealed that crashes can be clustered with regards to the dominant traffic patterns prior to the crash occurrence. K-Means clustering algorithm applied to determine dominant pre-crash traffic patterns. In the first phase of this research, traffic regimes identified by analysing crashes and normal traffic situations using half an hour speed in upstream locations of crashes. Then, the second phase investigated the different combination of speed risk indicators to distinguish crashes from normal traffic situations more precisely. Five major trends have been found in the first phase of this paper for both high risk and normal conditions. The study discovered traffic regimes had differences in the speed trends. Moreover, the second phase explains that spatiotemporal difference of speed is a better risk indicator among different combinations of speed related risk indicators. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation models can be fine-tuned to increase accuracy of estimations and minimize false alarms.

Risks for HIV infection among male street laborers in urban Vietnam

Risks for HIV infection remain unknown in male street laborers. This research investigates patterns of self-reported risk behaviors among these men in urban Vietnam. In a cross-sectional survey using a social mapping technique, 450 men, mostly low-skilled and unregistered migrant laborers across 13 districts in Hanoi were approached for interviews. The study revealed that male street laborers were at high risk of acquiring and transmitting HIV. One in every 12 men reported homosexual or bisexual behavior. These men on average had three sexual partners within the preceding year, and condom use was inconsistent. Close to 95 % of the men had reported sexual encounters with regular partners. One-third with commercial sex workers (CSW) and 24.2 % with casual partners, but just under one-third had ever used condoms with regular partners and CSWs and very few (17.6 %) with casual partners at their last sexual encounter. 17.11 % used illicit drugs sometimes, with 66.7 % of them frequently sharing injecting equipment with peers. These men had limited HIV knowledge; 51.4 % incorrectly believed that, once you trust your partner, you no longer need to use condoms and 42.4 % believed that you can tell by looking at someone if they have HIV. Access to HIV prevention was also limited; only 19.8 % of men had been tested for HIV during the previous 12 months, almost 10 % of whom neither returned for the result nor knew their HIV status. The study provides interesting directions for future research and suggests ways to effectively design prevention strategies for these men.

'Water view' from cyberspace : building resilient communities by identifying water risks

The perceived desirability of water views continues to lead to increasing numbers relocating to coastal regions. Proximity to coastal water brings with it unique risks from rising sea levels; however, water can present a risk in any area, whether or not you have water views. Recent Australian and international disasters show that even inland populations not located in traditional flood areas are not immune from water risks. The author examines the nature of these risks and shows how the internet can be used as a tool in identifying risk areas. The author also highlights the need to ensure accuracy of the data for valuation and planning purposes and identifies flaws in the current data provision.

Managing health risks of extreme weather events : need for a systematic approach

The Climate Commission recently outlined the trend of major extreme weather events in different regions of Australia, including heatwaves, floods, droughts, bushfires, cyclones and storms. These events already impose an enormous health and financial burden onto society and are projected to occur more frequently and intensely. Unless we act now, further financial losses and increasing health burdens seem inevitable. We seek to highlight the major areas for interdisciplinary investigation, identify barriers and formulate response strategies.

Cloud computing adoption in Australia : the benefits, risks and implications for accounting

The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the state of cloud computing adoption in Australia. I specifically focus on the drivers, risks, and benefits of cloud computing from the perspective of IT experts and forensic accountants. I use thematic analysis of interview data to answer the research questions of the study. The findings suggest that cloud computing is increasingly gaining foothold in many sectors due to its advantages such as flexibility and the speed of deployment. However, security remains an issue and therefore its adoption is likely to be selective and phased. Of particular concern are the involvement of third parties and foreign jurisdictions, which in the event of damage may complicate litigation and forensic investigations. This is one of the first empirical studies that reports on cloud computing adoption and experiences in Australia.

A nation’s role in addressing base erosion and profit shifting : balancing sovereignty with international collaboration and coordination

The notion of sovereignty is central to any international tax issue. While a nation is free to design its tax laws as it sees fit and raise revenue in accordance with the needs of its citizens, it is not possible to undertake such a task in isolation. In a world of cross-border investments and business transactions, all tax regimes impact on one another. Tax interactions between sovereign states cannot be avoided. Ultimately, the interactions mean that a nation must decide whether to engage in both collaboration and coordination with other nations and supranational bodies alike or maintain an individualised stance in relation to its tax policy. Whatever the decision, there is arguably an exercise in national sovereignty in some form. In the context of an international tax regime, whether that regime is interpreted broadly as meaning international norms generally adopted by nations around the world or domestic regimes legislating for cross-border transactions, rhetoric around national fiscal sovereignty takes on many different forms. At one end of the spectrum it is relied upon by financial secrecy jurisdictions (tax havens) as a defence to their position on the basis that ‘other’ nations cannot interfere with the fiscal sovereignty of a jurisdiction. At the other end of the spectrum, it is argued that profit shifting and international tax avoidance if not stopped is, in and of itself, a threat to a nation’s fiscal sovereignty on the basis that it threatens the ability to tax and raise the revenue needed. This paper considers a modern conceptualisation of sovereignty along with its role within international tax coordination and collaboration to argue that a move towards a more unified approach to addressing international base erosion and profit shifting may be the ultimate exercise of national fiscal sovereignty. By using the current transfer pricing regime as a case study, this paper posits that it is not merely enough to have international agreement on allocation rules to be applied, but that the ultimate exercise of national sovereignty is political agreement with other states to ensure that it is governments which determine the allocational basis of worldwide profits to be taxed. In doing so, it is demonstrated that the arm’s length pricing requirement of the current transfer pricing regime, rather than providing governments with the ability to determine the location of profits, is providing multinational entities with the ultimate power to determine that location. If left unchecked, this will eventually erode a nation’s ability to capture the required tax revenue and, as a consequence, may be deemed a failure by nation states to exercise their fiscal sovereignty.

A nation's role in addressing base erosion and profit shifting : sovereignty in relation to transfer pricing

The notion of sovereignty is central to any international tax issue. While a nation is free to design its tax laws as it sees fit and raise revenue in accordance with the needs of its citizens, it is not possible to undertake such a task in isolation. Tax interactions between sovereign states cannot be avoided. Ultimately, the interactions mean that a nation must decide whether or engage in both collaboration and co ordination with other nations and supranational bodies alike or maintain a unilateral stance in relation to its tax policy. This article considers a modern conceptualisation of sovereignty to argue that a move towards a more unified approach to addressing international base erosion and profit sharing may be the ultimate exercise of national fiscal sovereignty.

Liability in negligence and the failure to disclose multiple risks in surgery : I would have been willing to run the risk

It has been 21 years since the decision in Rogers v Whitaker and the legal principles concerning informed consent and liability for negligence are still strongly grounded in this landmark High Court decision. This paper considers more recent developments in the law concerning the failure to disclose inherent risks in medical procedures, focusing on the decision in Wallace v Kam [2013] HCA 19. In this case, the appellant underwent a surgical procedure that carried a number of risks. The surgery itself was not performed in a sub-standard way, but the surgeon failed to disclose two risks to the patient, a failure that constituted a breach of the surgeon’s duty of care in negligence. One of the undisclosed risks was considered to be less serious than the other, and this lesser risk eventuated causing injury to the appellant. The more serious risk did not eventuate, but the appellant argued that if the more serious risk had been disclosed, he would have avoided his injuries completely because he would have refused to undergo the procedure. Liability was disputed by the surgeon, with particular reference to causation principles. The High Court of Australia held that the appellant should not be compensated for harm that resulted from a risk he would have been willing to run. We examine the policy reasons underpinning the law of negligence in this specific context and consider some of the issues raised by this unusual case. We question whether some of the judicial reasoning adopted in this case, represents a significant shift in traditional causation principles.

Review: "Planning Asian cities : risks and resilience" edited by Stephen Hamnett and Dean Forbes, Planning, History and Environment Series, London, Routledge, 2011

Since the beginning of the agricultural revolution, cities have always been the cradle of civilisation, innovation and productivity, particularly as a result of the recent change factors affecting their (trans)formation, such as globalisation, the knowledge economy, technological advancements, climate change and so on. While in some parts of the world, cities are rapidly growing, in other parts, cities are shrinking, and their populations are aging. Even under the current pressure of constantly changing global conditions, the role of cities in influencing and partially shaping local, regional, national, supranational and even global level economy, society, environment and governance is undeniable. Global changes, while providing opportunities for cities and their administrations to reform and revisit existing planning and development processes and mechanisms, at the same time, challenge them by dealing with everincreasing risks and establishing resilience. At present, more than half of the world’s population...

Matrix metalloproteinase 13-deficient mice are resistant to osteoarthritic cartilage erosion but not chondrocyte hypertrophy or osteophyte development

Objective To investigate the role of matrix metalloproteinase 13 (MMP-13; collagenase 3) in osteoarthritis (OA). Methods OA was surgically induced in the knees of MMP-13-knockout mice and wild-type mice, and mice were compared. Histologic scoring of femoral and tibial cartilage aggrecan loss (0-3 scale), erosion (0-7 scale), and chondrocyte hypertrophy (0-1 scale), as well as osteophyte size (0-3 scale) and maturity (0-3 scale) was performed. Serial sections were stained for type X collagen and the MMP-generated aggrecan neoepitope DIPEN. Results Following surgery, aggrecan loss and cartilage erosion were more severe in the tibia than femur (P < 0.01) and tibial cartilage erosion increased with time (P < 0.05) in wild-type mice. Cartilaginous osteophytes were present at 4 weeks and underwent ossification, with size and maturity increasing by 8 weeks (P < 0.01). There was no difference between genotypes in aggrecan loss or cartilage erosion at 4 weeks. There was less tibial cartilage erosion in knockout mice than in wild-type mice at 8 weeks (P < 0.02). Cartilaginous osteophytes were larger in knockout mice at 4 weeks (P < 0.01), but by 8 weeks osteophyte maturity and size were no different from those in wild-type mice. Articular chondrocyte hypertrophy with positive type X collagen and DIPEN staining occurred in both wild-type and knockout mouse joints. Conclusion Our findings indicate that structural cartilage damage in a mouse model of OA is dependent on MMP-13 activity. Chondrocyte hypertrophy is not regulated by MMP-13 activity in this model and does not in itself lead to cartilage erosion. MMP-13 deficiency can inhibit cartilage erosion in the presence of aggrecan depletion, supporting the potential for therapeutic intervention in established OA with MMP-13 inhibitors.

Audit fees and asset securitization risks

The thesis investigates “where were the auditors in asset securitizations”, a criticism of the audit profession before and after the onset of the global financial crisis (GFC). Asset securitizations increase audit complexity and audit risks, which are expected to increase audit fees. Using US bank holding company data from 2003 to 2009, this study examines the association between asset securitization risks and audit fees, and its changes during the global financial crisis. The main test is based on an ordinary least squares (OLS) model, which is adapted from the Fields et al. (2004) bank audit fee model. I employ a principal components analysis to address high correlations among asset securitization risks. Individual securitization risks are also separately tested. A suite of sensitivity tests indicate the results are robust. These include model alterations, sample variations, further controls in the tests, and correcting for the securitizer self-selection problem. A partial least squares (PLS) path modelling methodology is introduced as a separate test, which allows for high intercorrelations, self-selection correction, and sequential order hypotheses in one simultaneous model. The PLS results are consistent with the main results. The study finds significant and positive associations between securitization risks and audit fees. After the commencement of the global financial crisis in 2007, there was an increased focus on the role of audits on asset securitization risks resulting from bank failures; therefore I expect that auditors would become more sensitive to bank asset securitization risks after the commencement of the crisis. I find that auditors appear to focus on different aspects of asset securitization risks during the crisis and that auditors appear to charge a GFC premium for banks. Overall, the results support the view that auditors consider asset securitization risks and market changes, and adjust their audit effort and risk considerations accordingly.

Benefits and risks of large hydrostatic recesses in hydroelectric turbine thrust bearings

Operators of hydroelectric power stations sometimes call upon engineers to modify existing hydroelectric turbines, usually several decades old, for improved maintainability and reliability. One common modification is the hybridisation of plain thrust pads to allow hydrostatic operation to reduce the risk of bearing wipe at low speed (virtually all new installations benefit from this feature). A modification such as this is not a difficult undertaking; however, there are numerous factors that need to be considered in order to maximize bearing performance. One factor that stands out above the others is whether the thrust bearing should be designed to lift the turbine immediately from the standing condition, which presents an interesting challenge: the recess has to have a sufficiently large area in order for the supply pressure to be able to overcome the dead weight of the turbine. If the combination of groove area and pressure is insufficient, then lifting is neither immediate nor guaranteed. This need not be a significant problem, as the bearings have exhibited adequate performance even in the absence of a hydrostatic lubricant supply. A case study is presented whereby relatively large hydrostatic recesses are added to the pads of thrust bearing. It is demonstrated with the aid of simple numerical modelling that the impact of the recess relative to the original pad is small under normal operating conditions. Most surprising, however, is that significant reductions in average oil film temperature and power dissipation are predicted.

Bank audit fees and asset securitization risks

Using the lens of audit pricing, we provide insights into auditors’ behaviors in relation to the risk of asset securitizations to bank holding companies in a period encompassing the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the introduction of the accounting standards FAS 166 and FAS 167. Using US bank holding company data from 2003 to 2011, we find significant and positive associations between asset securitization risks and audit fees. We find that auditors appear to focus on different aspects of asset securitization risks after the onset of the GFC, and increase their attention to the systemic risks facing bank holding companies in general. After the implementation of FAS 166 and FAS 167, which removed the discretion to treat asset securitizations as sales and required the consolidation of the accounts of special purpose entities, asset securitization risks no longer have a significant effect on audit fees.

Parent's socio-economic status and social support as risks for child mortality : consideration of health equity in The Gambia

A matched case-control study of mortality to children under age five was conducted to consider associations with parents' socio-economic status and social support in the Farafenni Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS). Cases and controls were selected from Farafenni DSS, matched on date of birth, and parents were interviewed about personal resources and social networks. Parents with the lowest personal socio-economic status and social support were identified. Multivariate multinomial regression was used to consider whether the children of these parents were at increased risk of either infant or 1-4 mortality, in separate models using either parents' characteristics. There was no benefit found for higher SES or better social support with respect to child mortality. Children of fathers who had the poorest social support had lower 1-4 mortality risk (OR=0.52, p=0.037). Given that socio-economic status was not associated with child mortality, it seems unlikely that the explanation for the link between father's social support and mortality is linked to resource availability. Explanations for the risk effect of father's social ties may lie in decision-making around health maintenance and health care for children.

Interpreting and comparing risks in the presence of competing events

Competing events are common in medical research. Ignoring them in the statistical analysis can easily lead to flawed results and conclusions. This article uses a real dataset and a simple simulation to show how standard analysis fails and how such data should be analysed