In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

A "Candidate-Interactome" Aggregate Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Data in Multiple Sclerosis

Though difficult, the study of gene-environment interactions in multifactorial diseases is crucial for interpreting the relevance of non-heritable factors and prevents from overlooking genetic associations with small but measurable effects. We propose a "candidate interactome" (i.e. a group of genes whose products are known to physically interact with environmental factors that may be relevant for disease pathogenesis) analysis of genome-wide association data in multiple sclerosis. We looked for statistical enrichment of associations among interactomes that, at the current state of knowledge, may be representative of gene-environment interactions of potential, uncertain or unlikely relevance for multiple sclerosis pathogenesis: Epstein-Barr virus, human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, cytomegalovirus, HHV8-Kaposi sarcoma, H1N1-influenza, JC virus, human innate immunity interactome for type I interferon, autoimmune regulator, vitamin D receptor, aryl hydrocarbon receptor and a panel of proteins targeted by 70 innate immune-modulating viral open reading frames from 30 viral species. Interactomes were either obtained from the literature or were manually curated. The P values of all single nucleotide polymorphism mapping to a given interactome were obtained from the last genome-wide association study of the International Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium & the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium, 2. The interaction between genotype and Epstein Barr virus emerges as relevant for multiple sclerosis etiology. However, in line with recent data on the coexistence of common and unique strategies used by viruses to perturb the human molecular system, also other viruses have a similar potential, though probably less relevant in epidemiological terms. © 2013 Mechelli et al.

Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals, and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the HLA-DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly overrepresented among those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T-helper-cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis. © 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

FTO genotype is associated with phenotypic variability of body mass index

There is evidence across several species for genetic control of phenotypic variation of complex traits1, 2, 3, 4, such that the variance among phenotypes is genotype dependent. Understanding genetic control of variability is important in evolutionary biology, agricultural selection programmes and human medicine, yet for complex traits, no individual genetic variants associated with variance, as opposed to the mean, have been identified. Here we perform a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of phenotypic variation using ~170,000 samples on height and body mass index (BMI) in human populations. We report evidence that the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs7202116 at the FTO gene locus, which is known to be associated with obesity (as measured by mean BMI for each rs7202116 genotype)5, 6, 7, is also associated with phenotypic variability. We show that the results are not due to scale effects or other artefacts, and find no other experiment-wise significant evidence for effects on variability, either at loci other than FTO for BMI or at any locus for height. The difference in variance for BMI among individuals with opposite homozygous genotypes at the FTO locus is approximately 7%, corresponding to a difference of ~0.5 kilograms in the standard deviation of weight. Our results indicate that genetic variants can be discovered that are associated with variability, and that between-person variability in obesity can partly be explained by the genotype at the FTO locus. The results are consistent with reported FTO by environment interactions for BMI8, possibly mediated by DNA methylation9, 10. Our BMI results for other SNPs and our height results for all SNPs suggest that most genetic variants, including those that influence mean height or mean BMI, are not associated with phenotypic variance, or that their effects on variability are too small to detect even with samples sizes greater than 100,000.

Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10−9 to P = 1.8 × 10−40) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10−3 to P = 1.2 × 10−13). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.

Familial isolated hyperparathyroidism is linked to a 1.7 Mb region on chromosome 2p13.3-14

BACKGROUND: Familial isolated hyperparathyroidism (FIHP) is an autosomal dominantly inherited form of primary hyperparathyroidism. Although comprising only about 1% of cases of primary hyperparathyroidism, identification and functional analysis of a causative gene for FIHP is likely to advance our understanding of parathyroid physiology and pathophysiology. METHODS: A genome-wide screen of DNA from seven pedigrees with FIHP was undertaken in order to identify a region of genetic linkage with the disorder. RESULTS: Multipoint linkage analysis identified a region of suggestive linkage (LOD score 2.68) on chromosome 2. Fine mapping with the addition of three other families revealed significant linkage adjacent to D2S2368 (maximum multipoint LOD score 3.43). Recombination events defined a 1.7 Mb region of linkage between D2S2368 and D2S358 in nine pedigrees. Sequencing of the two most likely candidate genes in this region, however, did not identify a gene for FIHP. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that a causative gene for FIHP lies within this interval on chromosome 2. This is a major step towards eventual precise identification of a gene for FIHP, likely to be a key component in the genetic regulation of calcium homeostasis.

Penology from city to country: Rurality and penality in Australia

There is a long tradition of social inquiry concerned with locational patterns and place-based explanations of crime in which urban/rural differences have been regarded as of cardinal importance. The geographical and socio-spatial aspects of punishment have on the other hand been widely neglected. One reason for this is that cities have been treated as the site of the major crime problems, presenting a contrast with what are commonly assumed (often without careful empirical research) to be the naturally cohesive character of rural communities. Thus punishment, like crime, is not a significant or distinctive issue in rural communities, requiring the attention of criminologists. But just as there are significant and distinctive dimensions to rural crime, the practice of punishment in rural contexts raises important questions worthy of attention. These questions relate to (1) the demand for punishment (i.e. the penal sensibilities to be found in rural communities); (2) the supply of punishment according to principles of legal equality (notably the question of the effective availability in rural courts of the full range of penalties administered by urban courts, in particular alternatives to incarceration); and (3) the differential impact of the same penalties when imposed in different geographical settings (e.g. imprisonment may involve distant removal from an offender’s community in addition to segregation from it; license disqualification is a great deal more consequential in settings where public transport is unavailable). The chapter examines these questions by reference to available knowledge concerning patterns of punishment in rural Australia. This will be set against the background of an analysis of the differential social organisation of penality in rural and urban settings. The generally more attenuated nature of the social state and social provision in rural contexts can, depending upon the profile of particular communities (and in particular their degree of social homogeneity), produce very different penal consequences: more heavy reliance on the penal state on the one hand, or greater recourse to informal social controls on the other.

Career adaptability predicts subjective career success above and beyond personality traits and core self-evaluations

The Career Adapt-Abilities Scale (CAAS) measures career adaptability as a higher-order construct that integrates four psychosocial resources of employees for managing their career development: concern, control, curiosity, and confidence. The goal of the present study was to investigate the validity of the CAAS with regard to its effects on two indicators of subjective career success (career satisfaction and self-rated career performance) above and beyond the effects of employees' Big Five personality traits and core self-evaluations. Data came from a large and heterogeneous sample of employees in Australia (N=1723). Results showed that overall career adaptability positively predicted career satisfaction and self-rated career performance above and beyond the Big Five personality traits and core self-evaluations. In addition, concern and confidence positively predicted the two indicators of subjective career success. The findings provide further support for the incremental validity of the CAAS.

Worldwide outdoor round robin study of organic photovoltaic devices and modules

Accurate characterization and reporting of organic photovoltaic (OPV) device performance remains one of the important challenges in the field. The large spread among the efficiencies of devices with the same structure reported by different groups is significantly caused by different procedures and equipment used during testing. The presented article addresses this issue by offering a new method of device testing using “suitcase sample” approach combined with outdoor testing that limits the diversity of the equipment, and a strict measurement protocol. A round robin outdoor characterization of roll-to-roll coated OPV cells and modules conducted among 46 laboratories worldwide is presented, where the samples and the testing equipment were integrated in a compact suitcase that served both as a sample transportation tool and as a holder and test equipment during testing. In addition, an internet based coordination was used via plasticphotovoltaics.org that allowed fast and efficient communication among participants and provided a controlled reporting format for the results that eased the analysis of the data. The reported deviations among the laboratories were limited to 5% when compared to the Si reference device integrated in the suitcase and were up to 8% when calculated using the local irradiance data. Therefore, this method offers a fast, cheap and efficient tool for sample sharing and testing that allows conducting outdoor measurements of OPV devices in a reproducible manner.