Not yet the Internet election : online media, political commentary and the 2007 Australian federal election

This paper undertakes an overview of two developments in online media that coincided with the 'year-long campaign' that was the 2007 Australian Federal election. It discusses the relatively successful use of the Internet and social media in the 'Kevin07' Australian Labor Party campaign, and contrasts this to the Liberal-National Party's faltering use of You Tube for policy announcements. It also notes the struggle for authority in interpreting polling data between the mainstream media and various online commentators, and the 'July 12 incident' at The Australian, where it engaged in strong denunciation of alleged biases and prejudices among bloggers and on political Web sites. It concludes with consideration of some wider implication for political communication and the politics-media relationship, and whether we are seeing trends towards dispersal and diversification characterising the 'third age' of political communication.

Influence of historical landscapes, drainage evolution and ecological traits on patterns of genetic diversity in Southeast Asian freshwater snakehead fishes

Snakehead fishes in the family Channidae are obligate freshwater fishes represented by two extant genera, the African Parachannna and the Asian Channa. These species prefer still or slow flowing water bodies, where they are top predators that exercise high levels of parental care, have the ability to breathe air, can tolerate poor water quality, and interestingly, can aestivate or traverse terrestrial habitat in response to seasonal changes in freshwater habitat availability. These attributes suggest that snakehead fishes may possess high dispersal potential, irrespective of the terrestrial barriers that would otherwise constrain the distribution of most freshwater fishes. A number of biogeographical hypotheses have been developed to account for the modern distributions of snakehead fishes across two continents, including ancient vicariance during Gondwanan break-up, or recent colonisation tracking the formation of suitable climatic conditions. Taxonomic uncertainty also surrounds some members of the Channa genus, as geographical distributions for some taxa across southern and Southeast (SE) Asia are very large, and in one case is highly disjunct. The current study adopted a molecular genetics approach to gain an understanding of the evolution of this group of fishes, and in particular how the phylogeography of two Asian species may have been influenced by contemporary versus historical levels of dispersal and vicariance. First, a molecular phylogeny was constructed based on multiple DNA loci and calibrated with fossil evidence to provide a dated chronology of divergence events among extant species, and also within species with widespread geographical distributions. The data provide strong evidence that trans-continental distribution of the Channidae arose as a result of dispersal out of Asia and into Africa in the mid–Eocene. Among Asian Channa, deep divergence among lineages indicates that the Oligocene-Miocene boundary was a time of significant species radiation, potentially associated with historical changes in climate and drainage geomorphology. Mid-Miocene divergence among lineages suggests that a taxonomic revision is warranted for two taxa. Deep intra-specific divergence (~8Mya) was also detected between C. striata lineages that occur sympatrically in the Mekong River Basin. The study then examined the phylogeography and population structure of two major taxa, Channa striata (the chevron snakehead) and the C. micropeltes (the giant snakehead), across SE Asia. Species specific microsatellite loci were developed and used in addition to a mitochondrial DNA marker (Cyt b) to screen neutral genetic variation within and among wild populations. C. striata individuals were sampled across SE Asia (n=988), with the major focus being the Mekong Basin, which is the largest drainage basin in the region. The distributions of two divergent lineages were identified and admixture analysis showed that where they co-occur they are interbreeding, indicating that after long periods of evolution in isolation, divergence has not resulted in reproductive isolation. One lineage is predominantly confined to upland areas of northern Lao PDR to the north of the Khorat Plateau, while the other, which is more closely related to individuals from southern India, has a widespread distribution across mainland SE Asian and Sumatra. The phylogeographical pattern recovered is associated with past river networks, and high diversity and divergence among all populations sampled reveal that contemporary dispersal is very low for this taxon, even where populations occur in contiguous freshwater habitats. C. micropeltes (n=280) were also sampled from across the Mekong River Basin, focusing on the lower basin where it constitutes an important wild fishery resource. In comparison with C. striata, allelic diversity and genetic divergence among populations were extremely low, suggesting very recent colonisation of the greater Mekong region. Populations were significantly structured into at least three discrete populations in the lower Mekong. Results of this study have implications for establishing effective conservation plans for managing both species, that represent economically important wild fishery resources for the region. For C. micropeltes, it is likely that a single fisheries stock in the Tonle Sap Great Lake is being exploited by multiple fisheries operations, and future management initiatives for this species in this region will need to account for this. For C. striata, conservation of natural levels of genetic variation will require management initiatives designed to promote population persistence at very localised spatial scales, as the high level of population structuring uncovered for this species indicates that significant unique diversity is present at this fine spatial scale.

Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Comparison of below-knee amputee gait performed overground and on a motorized treadmill

There has been no direct attempt to evaluate whether gait performed overground and on a treadmill is the same for lower limb amputees. A multiple case study approach was adopted to explore the degenerate movement behavior displayed by three male amputees. Participants walked overground at a self-selected preferred pace and when this speed was enforced on a treadmill (50 stride cycles per condition). The extremities of motion (i.e., maximum flexion) for the hip and knee joints differed between conditions (0.2–3.8°). For two participants, the temporal asymmetry of gait was reduced on the treadmill. Initial data suggest that research on amputees simulating overground walking on a treadmill might need to be interpreted with some caution.

Systematics and biogeography of the Gondwanan Orthocladiinae (Diptera: Chironomidae)

Restrictions to effective dispersal and gene flow caused by the fragmentation of ancient supercontinents are considered to have driven diversification and speciation on disjunct landmasses globally. Investigating the role that these processes have played in the development of diversity within and among taxa is crucial to understanding the origins and evolution of regional biotas. Within the chironomid (non-biting midge) subfamily Orthocladiinae (Diptera: Chironomidae), a group of genera that are distributed across the austral continents (Australia, New Zealand, South America) have been proposed to represent a relict Gondwanan clade. We used a molecular approach to resolve relationships among taxa with the aim to determine the relative roles that vicariance and dispersal may have played in the evolution of this group. Continental biotas did not form monophyletic groups, in accordance with expectations given existing morphological evidence. Patterns of phylogenetic relationships among taxa did not accord with expected patterns based on the geological sequence of break-up of the Gondwanan supercontinent. Likewise, divergence time estimates, particularly for New Zealand taxa, largely post-dated continental fragmentation and implied instead that several transoceanic dispersal events may have occurred post-vicariance. Passive dispersal of gravid female chironomid adults is the most likely mechanism for transoceanic movement, potentially facilitated by West Wind Drift or anti-cyclone fronts. Estimated timings of divergence among Australian and South American Botryocladius, on the other hand, were congruent with the proposed ages of separation of the two continents from Antarctica. Taken together, these data suggest that a complex relationship between both vicariance and dispersal may explain the evolution of this group. The sampling regime we implemented here was the most intensive yet performed for austral members of the Orthocladiinae and unsurprisingly revealed several novel taxa that will require formal description.

Evolutionary biology of Gondwanan non-biting midges (Diptera: Chironomidae)

The potential restriction to effective dispersal and gene flow caused by habitat fragmentation can apply to multiple levels of evolutionary scale; from the fragmentation of ancient supercontinents driving diversification and speciation on disjunct landmasses, to the isolation of proximate populations as a result of their inability to cross intervening unsuitable habitat. Investigating the role of habitat fragmentation in driving diversity within and among taxa can thus include inferences of phylogenetic relationships among taxa, assessments of intraspecific phylogeographic structure and analyses of gene flow among neighbouring populations. The proposed Gondwanan clade within the chironomid (non-biting midge) subfamily Orthocladiinae (Diptera: Chironomidae) represents a model system for investigating the role that population fragmentation and isolation has played at different evolutionary scales. A pilot study by Krosch et al (2009) indentified several highly divergent lineages restricted to ancient rainforest refugia and limited gene flow among proximate sites within a refuge for one member of this clade, Echinocladius martini Cranston. This study provided a framework for investigating the evolutionary history of this taxon and its relatives more thoroughly. Populations of E. martini were sampled in the Paluma bioregion of northeast Queensland to investigate patterns of fine-scale within- and among-stream dispersal and gene flow within a refuge more rigorously. Data was incorporated from Krosch et al (2009) and additional sites were sampled up- and downstream of the original sites. Analyses of genetic structure revealed strong natal site fidelity and high genetic structure among geographically proximate streams. Little evidence was found for regular headwater exchange among upstream sites, but there was distinct evidence for rare adult flight among sites on separate stream reaches. Overall, however, the distribution of shared haplotypes implied that both larval and adult dispersal was largely limited to the natal stream channel. Patterns of regional phylogeographic structure were examined in two related austral orthoclad taxa – Naonella forsythi Boothroyd from New Zealand and Ferringtonia patagonica Sæther and Andersen from southern South America – to provide a comparison with patterns revealed in their close relative E. martini. Both taxa inhabit tectonically active areas of the southern hemisphere that have also experienced several glaciation events throughout the Plio-Pleistocene that are thought to have affected population structure dramatically in many taxa. Four highly divergent lineages estimated to have diverged since the late Miocene were revealed in each taxon, mirroring patterns in E. martini; however, there was no evidence for local geographical endemism, implying substantial range expansion post-diversification. The differences in pattern evident among the three related taxa were suggested to have been influenced by variation in the responses of closed forest habitat to climatic fluctuations during interglacial periods across the three landmasses. Phylogeographic structure in E. martini was resolved at a continental scale by expanding upon the sampling design of Krosch et al (2009) to encompass populations in southeast Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Patterns of phylogeographic structure were consistent with expectations and several previously unrecognised lineages were revealed from central- and southern Australia that were geographically endemic to closed forest refugia. Estimated divergence times were congruent with the timing of Plio-Pleistocene rainforest contractions across the east coast of Australia. This suggested that dispersal and gene flow of E. martini among isolated refugia was highly restricted and that this taxon was susceptible to the impacts of habitat change. Broader phylogenetic relationships among taxa considered to be members of this Gondwanan orthoclad group were resolved in order to test expected patterns of evolutionary affinities across the austral continents. The inferred phylogeny and estimated divergence times did not accord with expected patterns based on the geological sequence of break-up of the Gondwanan supercontinent and implied instead several transoceanic dispersal events post-vicariance. Difficulties in appropriate taxonomic sampling and accurate calibration of molecular phylogenies notwithstanding, the sampling regime implemented in the current study has been the most intensive yet performed for austral members of the Orthocladiinae and unsurprisingly has revealed both novel taxa and phylogenetic relationships within and among described genera. Several novel associations between life stages are made here for both described and previously unknown taxa. Investigating evolutionary relationships within and among members of this clade of proposed Gondwanan orthoclad taxa has demonstrated that a complex interaction between historical population fragmentation and dispersal at several levels of evolutionary scale has been important in driving diversification in this group. While interruptions to migration, colonisation and gene flow driven by population fragmentation have clearly contributed to the development and maintenance of much of the diversity present in this group, long-distance dispersal has also played a role in influencing diversification of continental biotas and facilitating gene flow among disjunct populations.

Spatial population genetic structure reveals strong natal site fidelity in Echinocladius martini (Diptera: Chironomidae) in northeast Queensland, Australia

1. A diverse array of patterns has been reported regarding the spatial extent of population genetic structure and effective dispersal in freshwater macroinvertebrates. In river systems, the movements of many taxa can be restricted to varying degrees by the natural stream channel hierarchy. 2. In this study, we sampled populations of the non-biting freshwater midge Echinocladius martini in the Paluma bioregion of tropical northeast Queensland to investigate fine scale patterns of within- and among-stream dispersal and gene flow within a purported historical refuge. We amplified a 639 bp fragment of mitochondrial COI and analysed genetic structure using pairwise ΦST, hierarchical AMOVA, Mantel tests and a parsimony network. Genetic variation was partitioned among stream sections using Streamtree to investigate the effect of potential instream dispersal barriers. 3. The data revealed strong natal site fidelity and significant differentiation among neighbouring, geographically proximate streams. We found evidence for only episodic adult flight among sites on separate stream reaches. Overall, however, our data suggested that both larval and adult dispersal was largely limited to within a stream channel. 4. This may arise from a combination of the high density of riparian vegetation physically restricting dispersal and from the joint effects of habitat stability and large population sizes. Together these may mitigate the requirement for movement among streams to avoid inbreeding and local extinction due to habitat change and may thus enable persistence of upstream populations in the absence of regular compensatory upstream flight. Taken together, these data suggest that dispersal of E. martini is highly restricted, to the scale of only a few kilometres, and hence occurs predominantly within the natal stream.

Using complex network metrics to predict the persistence of metapopulations with asymmetric connectivity patterns

Almost all metapopulation modelling assumes that connectivity between patches is only a function of distance, and is therefore symmetric. However, connectivity will not depend only on the distance between the patches, as some paths are easy to traverse, while others are difficult. When colonising organisms interact with the heterogeneous landscape between patches, connectivity patterns will invariably be asymmetric. There have been few attempts to theoretically assess the effects of asymmetric connectivity patterns on the dynamics of metapopulations. In this paper, we use the framework of complex networks to investigate whether metapopulation dynamics can be determined by directly analysing the asymmetric connectivity patterns that link the patches. Our analyses focus on “patch occupancy” metapopulation models, which only consider whether a patch is occupied or not. We propose three easily calculated network metrics: the “asymmetry” and “average path strength” of the connectivity pattern, and the “centrality” of each patch. Together, these metrics can be used to predict the length of time a metapopulation is expected to persist, and the relative contribution of each patch to a metapopulation’s viability. Our results clearly demonstrate the negative effect that asymmetry has on metapopulation persistence. Complex network analyses represent a useful new tool for understanding the dynamics of species existing in fragmented landscapes, particularly those existing in large metapopulations.

A longitudinal study of corporate earnings guidance in Australia’s continuous disclosure environment

Since the introduction of a statutory‐backed continuous disclosure regime (CDR) in 1994, regulatory reforms have significantly increased litigation risk in Australia for failure to disclose material information or for false and misleading disclosure. However, there is almost no empirical research on the impact of the reforms on corporate disclosure behaviour. Motivated by the absence of research and using management earnings forecasts (MEFs) as a disclosure proxy, this study examines (1) why managers issue earnings forecasts, (2) what firm‐specific factors influence MEF characteristics, and (3) how MEF behaviour changes as litigation risk increases. Based on theories in information economics, a theoretical framework for MEF behaviour is formulated which includes antecedent influencing factors related to firms‟ internal and external environments. Applying this framework, hypotheses are developed and tested using multivariate models and a large sample of hand-collected MEFs (7,213) issued by top 500 ASX-listed companies over the 1994 to 2008 period. The results reveal strong support for the hypotheses. First, MEFs are issued to reduce information asymmetry, litigation risk and signal superior performance. Second, firms with better financial performance, smaller earnings changes, and lower operating uncertainty provide better quality MEFs. Third, forecast frequency and quality (accuracy, timeliness and precision) noticeably improve as litigation risk increases. However, managers appear to be still reluctant to disclose earnings forecasts when there are large earnings changes, and an asymmetric treatment of news type continues to prevail (a good news bias). Thus, the findings generally provide support for the effectiveness of the CDR regulatory reforms in improving disclosure behaviour and will be valuable to market participants and corporate regulators in understanding the implications of management forecasting decisions and areas for further improvement.

Deformation behaviours of coarse-grained and nanocrystalline Mg-5wt% Al alloys

Magnesium alloys have been of growing interest to various engineering applications, such as the automobile, aerospace, communication and computer industries due to their low density, high specific strength, good machineability and availability as compared with other structural materials. However, most Mg alloys suffer from poor plasticity due to their Hexagonal Close Packed structure. Grain refinement has been proved to be an effective method to enhance the strength and alter the ductility of the materials. Several methods have been proposed to produce materials with nanocrystalline grain structures. So far, most of the research work on nanocrystalline materials has been carried out on Face-Centered Cubic and Body-Centered Cubic metals. However, there has been little investigation of nanocrystalline Mg alloys. In this study, bulk coarse-grained and nanocrystalline Mg alloys were fabricated by a mechanical alloying method. The mixed powder of Mg chips and Al powder was mechanically milled under argon atmosphere for different durations of 0 hours (MA0), 10 hours (MA10), 20 hours (MA20), 30 hours (MA30) and 40 hours (MA40), followed by compaction and sintering. Then the sintered billets were hot-extruded into metallic rods with a 7 mm diameter. The obtained Mg alloys have a nominal composition of Mg–5wt% Al, with grain sizes ranging from 13 μm down to 50 nm, depending on the milling durations. The microstructure characterization and evolution after deformation were carried out by means of Optical microscopy, X-Ray Diffraction, Scanning Electron Microscopy, Transmission Electron Microscopy, Scanning Probe Microscopy and Neutron Diffraction techniques. Nanoindentaion, compression and micro-compression tests on micro-pillars were used to study the size effects on the mechanical behaviour of the Mg alloys. Two kinds of size effects on the mechanical behaviours and deformation mechanisms were investigated: grain size effect and sample size effect. The nanoindentation tests were composed of constant strain rate, constant loading rate and indentation creep tests. The normally reported indentation size effect in single crystal and coarse-grained crystals was observed in both the coarse-grained and nanocrystalline Mg alloys. Since the indentation size effect is correlated to the Geometrically Necessary Dislocations under the indenter to accommodate the plastic deformation, the good agreement between the experimental results and the Indentation Size Effect model indicated that, in the current nanocrystalline MA20 and MA30, the dislocation plasticity was still the dominant deformation mechanism. Significant hardness enhancement with decreasing grain size, down to 58 nm, was found in the nanocrystalline Mg alloys. Further reduction of grain size would lead to a drop in the hardness values. The failure of grain refinement strengthening with the relatively high strain rate sensitivity of nanocrystalline Mg alloys suggested a change in the deformation mechanism. Indentation creep tests showed that the stress exponent was dependent on the loading rate during the loading section of the indentation, which was related to the dislocation structures before the creep starts. The influence of grain size on the mechanical behaviour and strength of extruded coarse-grained and nanocrystalline Mg alloys were investigated using uniaxial compression tests. The macroscopic response of the Mg alloys transited from strain hardening to strain softening behaviour, with grain size reduced from 13 ìm to 50 nm. The strain hardening was related to the twinning induced hardening and dislocation hardening effect, while the strain softening was attributed to the localized deformation in the nanocrystalline grains. The tension–compression yield asymmetry was noticed in the nanocrystalline region, demonstrating the twinning effect in the ultra-fine-grained and nanocrystalline region. The relationship k tensions < k compression failed in the nanocrystalline Mg alloys; this was attributed to the twofold effect of grain size on twinning. The nanocrystalline Mg alloys were found to exhibit increased strain rate sensitivity with decreasing grain size, with strain rate ranging from 0.0001/s to 0.01/s. Strain rate sensitivity of coarse-grained MA0 was increased by more than 10 times in MA40. The Hall-Petch relationship broke down at a critical grain size in the nanocrystalline region. The breakdown of the Hall-Petch relationship and the increased strain rate sensitivity were due to the localized dislocation activities (generalization and annihilation at grain boundaries) and the more significant contribution from grain boundary mediated mechanisms. In the micro-compression tests, the sample size effects on the mechanical behaviours were studied on MA0, MA20 and MA40 micro-pillars. In contrast to the bulk samples under compression, the stress-strain curves of MA0 and MA20 micro-pillars were characterized with a number of discrete strain burst events separated by nearly elastic strain segments. Unlike MA0 and MA20, the stress-strain curves of MA40 micro-pillars were smooth, without obvious strain bursts. The deformation mechanisms of the MA0 and MA20 micro-pillars under micro-compression tests were considered to be initially dominated by deformation twinning, followed by dislocation mechanisms. For MA40 pillars, the deformation mechanisms were believed to be localized dislocation activities and grain boundary related mechanisms. The strain hardening behaviours of the micro-pillars suggested that the grain boundaries in the nanocrystalline micro-pillars would reduce the source (nucleation sources for twins/dislocations) starvation hardening effect. The power law relationship of the yield strength on pillar dimensions in MA0, MA20 supported the fact that the twinning mechanism was correlated to the pre-existing defects, which can promote the nucleation of the twins. Then, we provided a latitudinal comparison of the results and conclusions derived from the different techniques used for testing the coarse-grained and nanocrystalline Mg alloy; this helps to better understand the deformation mechanisms of the Mg alloys as a whole. At the end, we summarized the thesis and highlighted the conclusions, contributions, innovations and outcomes of the research. Finally, it outlined recommendations for future work.