A soft approach to solving hard problems in construction project management

Construction projects are faced with a challenge that must not be underestimated. These projects are increasingly becoming highly competitive, more complex, and difficult to manage. They become ‘wicked problems’, which are difficult to solve using traditional approaches. Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is a systems approach that is used for analysis and problem solving in such complex and messy situations. SSM uses “systems thinking” in a cycle of action research, learning and reflection to help understand the various perceptions that exist in the minds of the different people involved in the situation. This paper examines the benefits of applying SSM to wicked problems in construction project management, especially those situations that are challenging to understand and difficult to act upon. It includes relevant examples of its use in dealing with the confusing situations that incorporate human, organizational and technical aspects.

Designing self sustaining support for micro-enterprises in sub-Saharan Africa : a pilot

Small and micro-enterprises play a significant part in most economies. However, in developing countries these enterprises have often been planned and implemented from a poverty alleviation perspective, rather than as entrepreneurial activities and growing businesses (Mead & Liedholm 1998, Toye 1993). This paper explores a model for sustainable support to micro-enterprises in a developing country context. Sustainability is critical if micro-enterprises are to grow. The traditional philanthropic model for funding micro-enterprises leaves local communities dependent on the priorities of donors which may not always be consistent with those of the community. Long term sustainability requires a move to a model that broadens the base of both economic and intellectual resources, that builds capacity as well as providing ‘start-up’ funding through mechanism such as micro-credit (Elkington & Hartigan 2008). Designing for sustainable enterprise development includes responding to the community’s priorities, investigating individual problems and solutions, encouraging agency and active involvement in goal setting, with on-going consultation and co-development of solutions. Recognising the importance of experimentation we have moved beyond existing forms to prototype new ways of working which provide continuity of financial and intellectual support for local initiatives. The paper reviews existing micro finance and microcredit practices and suggests a new approach to establish and support enterprises with financial and knowledge resources for sustainable business practices. Principles underlying such a program and the initial steps are described.

Institutional problems of the emerging scientific community in Iran

This article attempts to explore the concept of scientific community at the macro-national level in the context of Iran. Institutionalisation of science and its professional growth has been constrained by several factors. The article first conceptualises the notion of science community as found in the literature in the context of Iran, and attempts to map through some indicators. The main focus, however, lies in mapping some institutional problems through empirical research. This was undertaken in 2002–04 in order to analyse the structure of the scientific community in Iran in the ‘exact sciences’ (mathematics, physics, chemistry, biology and earth sciences). The empirical work was done in two complementary perspectives: through a questionnaire and statistical analysis of it, and through semistructured interviews with the researchers. There are number of problems confronting scientists in Iran. Facilities provided by institutions is one of the major problems of research. Another is the tenuous cooperation among scientists. This is reported by most of the researchers, who deplore the lack of cooperation among their group. Relationships are mostly with the Ph.D. students and only marginally with colleagues. Our research shows that the more brilliant the scientists, the more frustrated they are from scientific institutions in Iran. Medium-range researchers seem to be much happier about the scientific institution to which they belong than the brighter scholars. The scientific institutions in Iran seem to be built for the needs of the former rather than the latter. These institutions seem not to play a positive role in the case of the best scientists. On the whole, many ingredients of the scientific community, at least at its inception, are present among Iranian scientists: the strong desire for scientific achievement in spite of personal, institutional and economic problems.

Using a longitudinal model to estimate the effect of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus infection on length of stay in an intensive care unit

Healthcare-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA) infection may cause increased hospital stay or, sometimes, death. Quantifying this effect is complicated because it is a time-dependent exposure: infection may prolong hospital stay, while longer stays increase the risk of infection. We overcome these problems by using a multinomial longitudinal model for estimating the daily probability of death and discharge. We then extend the basic model to estimate how the effect of MRSA infection varies over time, and to quantify the number of excess ICU days due to infection. We find that infection decreases the relative risk of discharge (relative risk ratio = 0.68, 95% credible interval: 0.54, 0.82), but is only indirectly associated with increased mortality. An infection on the first day of admission resulted in a mean extra stay of 0.3 days (95% CI: 0.1, 0.5) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 10, and 1.2 days (95% CI: 0.5, 2.0) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 30. The decrease in the relative risk of discharge remained fairly constant with day of MRSA infection, but was slightly stronger closer to the start of infection. These results confirm the importance of MRSA infection in increasing ICU stay, but suggest that previous work may have systematically overestimated the effect size.

Is there something quantum-like about the human mental lexicon?

Following an early claim by Nelson & McEvoy suggesting that word associations can display `spooky action at a distance behaviour', a serious investigation of the potentially quantum nature of such associations is currently underway. In this paper quantum theory is proposed as a framework suitable for modelling the mental lexicon, specifically the results obtained from both intralist and extralist word association experiments. Some initial models exploring this hypothesis are discussed, and they appear to be capable of substantial agreement with pre-existing experimental data. The paper concludes with a discussion of some experiments that will be performed in order to test these models.

A fully Bayesian approach to inference for Coxian phase-type distributions with covariate dependent mean

Phase-type distributions represent the time to absorption for a finite state Markov chain in continuous time, generalising the exponential distribution and providing a flexible and useful modelling tool. We present a new reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for performing a fully Bayesian analysis of the popular Coxian subclass of phase-type models; the convenient Coxian representation involves fewer parameters than a more general phase-type model. The key novelty of our approach is that we model covariate dependence in the mean whilst using the Coxian phase-type model as a very general residual distribution. Such incorporation of covariates into the model has not previously been attempted in the Bayesian literature. A further novelty is that we also propose a reversible jump scheme for investigating structural changes to the model brought about by the introduction of Erlang phases. Our approach addresses more questions of inference than previous Bayesian treatments of this model and is automatic in nature. We analyse an example dataset comprising lengths of hospital stays of a sample of patients collected from two Australian hospitals to produce a model for a patient's expected length of stay which incorporates the effects of several covariates. This leads to interesting conclusions about what contributes to length of hospital stay with implications for hospital planning. We compare our results with an alternative classical analysis of these data.

Introduction

The title of this book, Hard Lesson: Reflections on Crime control in Late Modernity, contains a number of clues about its general theoretical direction. It is a book concerned, fist and foremost, with the vagaries of crime control in western neo-liberal and English speaking countries. More specifically, Hard Lessons draws attention to a number of examples in which discrete populations – those who have in one way or another offended against the criminal law - have become the subjects of various forms of stare intervention, regulation and control. We are concerned most of all with the ways in which recent criminal justice policies and practices have resulted in what are variously described as unintended consequences, unforeseen outcomes, unanticipated results, counter-productive effects or negative side effects. At their simplest, such terms refer to the apparent gulf between intention and outcome; they often form the basis for considerable amount of policy reappraisal, soul searching and even nihilistic despair among the mamandirns of crime control. Unintended consequences can, of course, be both positive and negative. Occasionally, crime control measures may result in beneficial outcomes, such as the use of DNA to acquit wrongly convicted prisoners. Generally, however, unforeseen effects tend to be negative and even entirely counterproductive, and/or directly opposite to what were originally intended. All this, of course, presupposes some sort of rational, well meaning and transparent policy making process so beloved by liberal social policy theorists. Yet, as Judith Bessant points out in her chapter, this view of policy formulation tends to obscure the often covert, regulatory and downright malevolent intentions contained in many government policies and practices. Indeed, history is replete with examples of governments seeking to mask their real aims from a prying public eye. Denials and various sorts of ‘techniques of neutralisation’ serve to cloak the real or ‘underlying’ aims of the powerful (Cohen 2000). The latest crop of ‘spin doctors’ and ‘official spokespersons’ has ensured that the process of governmental obfuscation, distortion and concealment remains deeply embedded in neo-liberal forms of governance. There is little new or surprising in this; nor should we be shocked when things ‘go wrong’ in the domain of crime control since many unintended consequences are, more often than not, quite predictable. Prison riots, high rates of recidivism and breaches of supervision orders, expansion rather than contraction of control systems, laws that create the opposite of what was intended – all these are normative features of western crime control. Indeed, without the deep fault lines running between policy and outcome it would be hard to imagine what many policy makers, administrators and practitioners would do: their day to day work practices and (and incomes) are directly dependent upon emergent ‘service delivery’ problems. Despite recurrent howls of official anguish and occasional despondency it is apparent that those involved in the propping up the apparatus of crime control have a vested interest in ensuring that polices and practices remain in an enduring state of review and reform.

Brief opportunistic intervention : the role of psychologists in initiating self-change amongst problem drinkers

Excessive consumption of alcohol is a serious public health problem. While intensive treatments are suitable for those who are physically dependent on alcohol, they are not cost-effective options for the vast majority of problem drinkers who are not dependent. There is good evidence that brief interventions are effective in reducing overall alcohol consumption, alcohol-related problems, and health-care utilisation among nondependent problem drinkers. Psychologists are in an ideal position to opportunistically detect people who drink excessively and to offer them brief advice to reduce their drinking. In this paper we outline the process involved in providing brief opportunistic screening and intervention for problem drinkers. We also discuss methods that psychologists can employ if a client is not ready to reduce drinking, or is ambivalent about change. Depending on the client's level of motivation to change, psychologists can engage in either an education-clarification approach, a commitment-enhancement approach, or a skills-training approach. Routine engagement in opportunistic intervention is an important public-health approach to reducing alcohol-related harm in the community.

Maternal anxiety and attention problems in children at 5 and 14 years

Objective: This study examines the association between maternal anxiety from pregnancy to 5 years and child attention problems at 5 and 14 years. Method: Birth cohort of 3,982 individuals born in Brisbane between 1981 and 1983 are assessed. Self-reported measures of maternal anxiety are assessed at four time points. Maternal reports of child attention problems using Achenbach’s Child Behavior Checklist are assessed at 5 and 14 years. Results: Children of mothers experiencing anxiety during or after pregnancy are at greater risk of experiencing attention problems at 5 and 14 years. After adjusting for maternal age and child’s gender, antenatal anxiety is strongly associated with persistent attention problems (OR = 3.65, 95% CI = 2.19, 6.07). Children with chronically anxious mothers are 5.67 (95% CI = 3.56, 9.03) times more likely to have persistent attention problems. These associations remain consistent after adjusting for potential confounders. Conclusions: Maternal anxiety appears to increase the rate of child attention problems and identifies a need for treatment programs to have a dual focus—the mother and her child. (J. of Att. Dis. 2009; XX(X) 1-XX)

Science and subjectivity

Science has been under attack in the last thirty years, and recently a number of prominent scientists have been busy fighting back. Here, an argument is presented that the `science wars' stem from an unreasonably strict adherence to the reductive method on the part of science, but that weakening this stance need not imply a lapse into subjectivity. One possible method for formalising the description of non-separable, contextually dependent complex systems is presented. This is based upon a quantum-like approach.

Quantum memory

New models of human cognition inspired by quantum theory could underpin information technologies that are better aligned with howwe recall information.

Predictions of angle dependent tortuosity and elasticity effects on sound propagation in cancellous bone

The anisotropic pore structure and elasticity of cancellous bone cause wave speeds and attenuation in cancellous bone to vary with angle. Previously published predictions of the variation in wave speed with angle are reviewed. Predictions that allow tortuosity to be angle dependent but assume isotropic elasticity compare well with available data on wave speeds at large angles but less well for small angles near the normal to the trabeculae. Claims for predictions that only include angle-dependence in elasticity are found to be misleading. Audio-frequency data obtained at audio-frequencies in air-filled bone replicas are used to derive an empirical expression for the angle-and porosity-dependence of tortuosity. Predictions that allow for either angle dependent tortuosity or angle dependent elasticity or both are compared with existing data for all angles and porosities.

Conceptions of school based youth health nursing : a phenomenographic study

The School Based Youth Health Nurse Program was established in 1999 by the Queensland Government to fund school nurse positions in Queensland state high schools. Schools were required to apply for a School Based Youth Health Nurse during a five-phase recruitment process, managed by the health districts, and rolled out over four years. The only mandatory selection criterion for the position of School Based Youth Health Nurse was registration as a General Nurse and most School Based Youth Health Nurses are allocated to two state high schools. Currently, there are approximately 115 Full Time Equivalent School Based Youth Health Nurse positions across all Queensland state high schools. The literature review revealed an abundance of information about school nursing. Most of the literature came from the United Kingdom and the United States, who have a different model of school nursing to school based youth health nursing. However, there is literature to suggest school nursing is gradually moving from a disease-focused approach to a social view of health. The noticeable number of articles about, for example, drug and alcohol, mental health, and contemporary sexual health issues, is evidence of this change. Additionally, there is a significant the volume of literature about partnerships and collaboration, much of which is about health education, team teaching and how school nurses and schools do health business together. The surfacing of this literature is a good indication that school nursing is aligning with the broader national health priority areas. More particularly, the literature exposed a small but relevant and current body of research, predominantly from Queensland, about school based youth health nursing. However, there remain significant gaps in the knowledge about school based youth health nursing. In particular, there is a deficit about how School Based Youth Heath Nurses understand the experience of school based youth health nursing. This research aimed to reveal the meaning of the experience of school based youth health nursing. The research question was How do School Based Youth Health Nurses’ understand the experience of school based youth health nursing? This enquiry was instigated because the researcher, who had a positive experience of school based youth health nursing, considered it important to validate other School Based Youth Health Nurses’ experiences. Consequently, a comprehensive use of qualitative research was considered the most appropriate manner to explore this research question. Within this qualitative paradigm, the research framework consists of the epistemology of social constructionism, the theoretical perspective of interpretivism and the approach of phenomenography. After ethical approval was gained, purposeful and snowball sampling was used to recruit a sample of 16 participants. In-depth interviews, which were voluntary, confidential and anonymous, were mostly conducted in public venues and lasted from 40-75 minutes. The researcher also kept a researchers journal as another form of data collection. Data analysis was guided by Dahlgren and Fallsbergs’ (1991, p. 152) seven phases of data analysis which includes familiarization, condensation, comparison, grouping, articulating, labelling and contrasting. The most important finding in this research is the outcome space, which represents the entirety of the experience of school based youth health nursing. The outcome space consists of two components: inside the school environment and outside the school environment. Metaphorically and considered as whole-in-themselves, these two components are not discreet but intertwined with each other. The outcome space consists of eight categories. Each category of description is comprised of several sub-categories of description but as a whole, is a conception of school based youth health nursing. The eight conceptions of school based youth health nursing are: 1. The conception of school based youth health nursing as out there all by yourself. 2. The conception of school based youth health nursing as no real backup. 3. The conception of school based youth health nursing as confronted by many barriers. 4. The conception of school based youth health nursing as hectic and full-on. 5. The conception of school based youth health nursing as working together. 6. The conception of school based youth health nursing as belonging to school. 7. The conception of school based youth health nursing as treated the same as others. 8. The conception of school based youth health nursing as the reason it’s all worthwhile. These eight conceptions of school based youth health nursing are logically related and form a staged hierarchical relationship because they are not equally dependent on each other. The conceptions of school based youth health nursing are grouped according to negative, negative and positive and positive conceptions of school based youth health nursing. The conceptions of school based youth health nursing build on each other, from the bottom upwards, to reach the authorized, or the most desired, conception of school based youth health nursing. This research adds to the knowledge about school nursing in general but especially about school based youth health nursing specifically. Furthermore, this research has operational and strategic implications, highlighted in the negative conceptions of school based youth health nursing, for the School Based Youth Health Nurse Program. The researcher suggests the School Based Youth Health Nurse Program, as a priority, address the operational issues The researcher recommends a range of actions to tackle issues and problems associated with accommodation and information, consultations and referral pathways, confidentiality, health promotion and education, professional development, line management and School Based Youth Health Nurse Program support and school management and community. Strategically, the researcher proposes a variety of actions to address strategic issues, such as the School Based Youth Health Nurse Program vision, model and policy and practice framework, recruitment and retention rates and evaluation. Additionally, the researcher believes the findings of this research have the capacity to spawn a myriad of future research projects. The researcher has identified the most important areas for future research as confidentiality, information, qualifications and health outcomes.

Social innovation to solve homelessness : wicked solutions for wicked problems

Homelessness is a complex problem that manifests in all societies. This intractable and ‘wicked’ issue resists single-agency solutions and its resolution and requires a large, on-going investment of financial and professional resources that few organisations can sustain. This paper adopts a social innovation framework to examine government and community sector responses to homelessness. While recent evaluations and policy prescriptions have suggested better integrated and more co-ordinated service delivery models for addressing homelessness, there is little understanding of the innovation framework in which alternative service system paradigms emerge. A framework that identifies/distils and explains different innovation levels is put forward. The framework highlights that while government may lead strategic level innovations, community organisations are active in developing innovation at the service and client level. Moreover, community organisations may be unaware of the innovative capacity that resides in their creative responses to resolving social crisis and marginalisation through being without shelter.