A hybrid approach to combining CART and logistic regression for stock ranking

The benefits of applying tree-based methods to the purpose of modelling financial assets as opposed to linear factor analysis are increasingly being understood by market practitioners. Tree-based models such as CART (classification and regression trees) are particularly well suited to analysing stock market data which is noisy and often contains non-linear relationships and high-order interactions. CART was originally developed in the 1980s by medical researchers disheartened by the stringent assumptions applied by traditional regression analysis (Brieman et al. [1984]). In the intervening years, CART has been successfully applied to many areas of finance such as the classification of financial distress of firms (see Frydman, Altman and Kao [1985]), asset allocation (see Sorensen, Mezrich and Miller [1996]), equity style timing (see Kao and Shumaker [1999]) and stock selection (see Sorensen, Miller and Ooi [2000])...

Quantile regression without the curse of unsmoothness

We consider quantile regression models and investigate the induced smoothing method for obtaining the covariance matrix of the regression parameter estimates. We show that the difference between the smoothed and unsmoothed estimating functions in quantile regression is negligible. The detailed and simple computational algorithms for calculating the asymptotic covariance are provided. Intensive simulation studies indicate that the proposed method performs very well. We also illustrate the algorithm by analyzing the rainfall–runoff data from Murray Upland, Australia.

The evolutionary value of recombination is constrained by genome modularity

Genetic recombination is a fundamental evolutionary mechanism promoting biological adaptation. Using engineered recombinants of the small single-stranded DNA plant virus, Maize streak virus (MSV), we experimentally demonstrate that fragments of genetic material only function optimally if they reside within genomes similar to those in which they evolved. The degree of similarity necessary for optimal functionality is correlated with the complexity of intragenomic interaction networks within which genome fragments must function. There is a striking correlation between our experimental results and the types of MSV recombinants that are detectable in nature, indicating that obligatory maintenance of intragenome interaction networks strongly constrains the evolutionary value of recombination for this virus and probably for genomes in general.

Therapeutic immunisation of rabbits with cottontail rabbit papillomavirus (CRPV) virus-like particles (VLP) induces regression of established papillomas

There is overwhelming evidence that persistent infection with high-risk human papillomaviruses (HR-HPV) is the main risk factor for invasive cancer of the cervix. Due to this global public health burden, two prophylactic HPV L1 virus-like particles (VLP) vaccines have been developed. While these vaccines have demonstrated excellent type-specific prevention of infection by the homologous vaccine types (high and low risk HPV types), no data have been reported on the therapeutic effects in people already infected with the low-risk HPV type. In this study we explored whether regression of CRPV-induced papillomas could be achieved following immunisation of out-bred New Zealand White rabbits with CRPV VLPs. Rabbits immunised with CRPV VLPs had papillomas that were significantly smaller compared to the negative control rabbit group (P ≤ 0.05). This data demonstrates the therapeutic potential of PV VLPs in a well-understood animal model with potential important implications for human therapeutic vaccination for low-risk HPVs. © 2008 Govan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Visual sea-floor mapping from low overlap imagery using bi-objective bundle adjustment and constrained motion

In most visual mapping applications suited to Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs), stereo visual odometry (VO) is rarely utilised as a pose estimator as imagery is typically of very low framerate due to energy conservation and data storage requirements. This adversely affects the robustness of a vision-based pose estimator and its ability to generate a smooth trajectory. This paper presents a novel VO pipeline for low-overlap imagery from an AUV that utilises constrained motion and integrates magnetometer data in a bi-objective bundle adjustment stage to achieve low-drift pose estimates over large trajectories. We analyse the performance of a standard stereo VO algorithm and compare the results to the modified vo algorithm. Results are demonstrated in a virtual environment in addition to low-overlap imagery gathered from an AUV. The modified VO algorithm shows significantly improved pose accuracy and performance over trajectories of more than 300m. In addition, dense 3D meshes generated from the visual odometry pipeline are presented as a qualitative output of the solution.

Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian Weighted Least Squares approach

Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality data sets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares Regression and Bayesian Weighted Least Squares Regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited data sets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in the prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling.

Regression and hypothesis tests for multivariate GNSS state time series

A satellite based observation system can continuously or repeatedly generate a user state vector time series that may contain useful information. One typical example is the collection of International GNSS Services (IGS) station daily and weekly combined solutions. Another example is the epoch-by-epoch kinematic position time series of a receiver derived by a GPS real time kinematic (RTK) technique. Although some multivariate analysis techniques have been adopted to assess the noise characteristics of multivariate state time series, statistic testings are limited to univariate time series. After review of frequently used hypotheses test statistics in univariate analysis of GNSS state time series, the paper presents a number of T-squared multivariate analysis statistics for use in the analysis of multivariate GNSS state time series. These T-squared test statistics have taken the correlation between coordinate components into account, which is neglected in univariate analysis. Numerical analysis was conducted with the multi-year time series of an IGS station to schematically demonstrate the results from the multivariate hypothesis testing in comparison with the univariate hypothesis testing results. The results have demonstrated that, in general, the testing for multivariate mean shifts and outliers tends to reject less data samples than the testing for univariate mean shifts and outliers under the same confidence level. It is noted that neither univariate nor multivariate data analysis methods are intended to replace physical analysis. Instead, these should be treated as complementary statistical methods for a prior or posteriori investigations. Physical analysis is necessary subsequently to refine and interpret the results.

Gradual training of cascaded shape regression for facial landmark localization and pose estimation

Facial landmarks play an important role in face recognition. They serve different steps of the recognition such as pose estimation, face alignment, and local feature extraction. Recently, cascaded shape regression has been proposed to accurately locate facial landmarks. A large number of weak regressors are cascaded in a sequence to fit face shapes to the correct landmark locations. In this paper, we propose to improve the method by applying gradual training. With this training, the regressors are not directly aimed to the true locations. The sequence instead is divided into successive parts each of which is aimed to intermediate targets between the initial and the true locations. We also investigate the incorporation of pose information in the cascaded model. The aim is to find out whether the model can be directly used to estimate head pose. Experiments on the Annotated Facial Landmarks in the Wild database have shown that the proposed method is able to improve the localization and give accurate estimates of pose.

Bricolage as a path to innovativeness for resource constrained new firms

Evidence suggests that both nascent and young firms (henceforth: “new firms”)—despite typically being small and resource-constrained—are sometimes able to innovate effectively. Such firms are seldom able to invest in lengthy and expensive development processes, which suggests that they may frequently rely instead on other pathways to generate innovativeness within the firm. In this paper, we develop and test arguments that “bricolage,” defined as making do by applying combinations of the resources at hand to new problems and opportunities, provides an important pathway to achieve innovation for new resource-constrained firms. Through bricolage, resource-constrained firms engage in the processes of “recombination” that are core to creating innovative outcomes. Based on a large longitudinal dataset, our results suggest that variations in the degree to which firms engage in bricolage behaviors can provide a broadly applicable explanation of innovativeness under resource constraints by new firms. We find no general support for our competing hypothesis that the positive effects may level off or even turn negative at high levels of bricolage..

Technical efficiency of mainstream airlines and low-cost carriers : New evidence using bootstrap data envelopment analysis truncated regression

Between 2001 and 2005, the US airline industry faced financial turmoil while the European airline industry entered a period of substantive deregulation. Consequently, this opened up opportunities for low-cost carriers to become more competitive in the market. To assess airline performance and identify the sources of efficiency in the immediate aftermath of these events, we employ a bootstrap data envelopment analysis truncated regression approach. The results suggest that at the time the mainstream airlines needed to significantly reorganize and rescale their operations to remain competitive. In the second-stage analysis, the results indicate that private ownership, status as a low-cost carrier, and improvements in weight load contributed to better organizational efficiency.

An analysis of regression models for predicting the speed of a wave glider autonomous surface vehicle

An important aspect of robotic path planning for is ensuring that the vehicle is in the best location to collect the data necessary for the problem at hand. Given that features of interest are dynamic and move with oceanic currents, vehicle speed is an important factor in any planning exercises to ensure vehicles are at the right place at the right time. Here, we examine different Gaussian process models to find a suitable predictive kinematic model that enable the speed of an underactuated, autonomous surface vehicle to be accurately predicted given a set of input environmental parameters.