Modeling conditional correlations of asset returns : a smooth transition approach

In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM–test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five frequently traded stocks in the S&P 500 stock index completes the paper.

Anomaly detection in online social networks : using data-mining techniques and fuzzy logic

This research is a step forward in improving the accuracy of detecting anomaly in a data graph representing connectivity between people in an online social network. The proposed hybrid methods are based on fuzzy machine learning techniques utilising different types of structural input features. The methods are presented within a multi-layered framework which provides the full requirements needed for finding anomalies in data graphs generated from online social networks, including data modelling and analysis, labelling, and evaluation.

Fuzzy logic to evaluate driving maneuvers: An integrated approach to improve training

Driver training is one of the interventions aimed at mitigating the number of crashes that involve novice drivers. Our failure to understand what is really important for learners, in terms of risky driving, is one of the many drawbacks restraining us to build better training programs. Currently, there is a need to develop and evaluate Advanced Driving Assistance Systems that could comprehensively assess driving competencies. The aim of this paper is to present a novel Intelligent Driver Training System (IDTS) that analyses crash risks for a given driving situation, providing avenues for improvement and personalisation of driver training programs. The analysis takes into account numerous variables acquired synchronously from the Driver, the Vehicle and the Environment (DVE). The system then segments out the manoeuvres within a drive. This paper further presents the usage of fuzzy set theory to develop the safety inference rules for each manoeuvre executed during the drive. This paper presents a framework and its associated prototype that can be used to comprehensively view and assess complex driving manoeuvres and then provide a comprehensive analysis of the drive used to give feedback to novice drivers.

Factors influencing robustness and effectiveness of conditional random fields in active learning frameworks

Active learning approaches reduce the annotation cost required by traditional supervised approaches to reach the same effectiveness by actively selecting informative instances during the learning phase. However, effectiveness and robustness of the learnt models are influenced by a number of factors. In this paper we investigate the factors that affect the effectiveness, more specifically in terms of stability and robustness, of active learning models built using conditional random fields (CRFs) for information extraction applications. Stability, defined as a small variation of performance when small variation of the training data or a small variation of the parameters occur, is a major issue for machine learning models, but even more so in the active learning framework which aims to minimise the amount of training data required. The factors we investigate are a) the choice of incremental vs. standard active learning, b) the feature set used as a representation of the text (i.e., morphological features, syntactic features, or semantic features) and c) Gaussian prior variance as one of the important CRFs parameters. Our empirical findings show that incremental learning and the Gaussian prior variance lead to more stable and robust models across iterations. Our study also demonstrates that orthographical, morphological and contextual features as a group of basic features play an important role in learning effective models across all iterations.

An efficient DSE using conditional multivariate complex Gaussian distribution

This paper presents an efficient noniterative method for distribution state estimation using conditional multivariate complex Gaussian distribution (CMCGD). In the proposed method, the mean and standard deviation (SD) of the state variables is obtained in one step considering load uncertainties, measurement errors, and load correlations. In this method, first the bus voltages, branch currents, and injection currents are represented by MCGD using direct load flow and a linear transformation. Then, the mean and SD of bus voltages, or other states, are calculated using CMCGD and estimation of variance method. The mean and SD of pseudo measurements, as well as spatial correlations between pseudo measurements, are modeled based on the historical data for different levels of load duration curve. The proposed method can handle load uncertainties without using time-consuming approaches such as Monte Carlo. Simulation results of two case studies, six-bus, and a realistic 747-bus distribution network show the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of speed, accuracy, and quality against the conventional approach.

Fuzzy-logic based frequency controller for wind farms augmented with energy storage systems

Displacement of conventional synchronous generators by non-inertial units such as wind or solar generators will result in reduced-system inertia affecting under-frequency response. Frequency control is important to avoid equipment damage, load shedding, and possible blackouts. Wind generators along with energy storage systems can be used to improve the frequency response of low-inertia power system. This paper proposes a fuzzy-logic based frequency controller (FFC) for wind farms augmented with energy storage systems (wind-storage system) to improve the primary frequency response in future low-inertia hybrid power system. The proposed controller provides bidirectional real power injection using system frequency deviations and rate of change of frequency (RoCoF). Moreover, FFC ensures optimal use of energy from wind farms and storage units by eliminating the inflexible de-loading of wind energy and minimizing the required storage capacity. The efficacy of the proposed FFC is verified on the low-inertia hybrid power system.

Aspect-based opinion mining from product reviews using conditional random fields

Product reviews are the foremost source of information for customers and manufacturers to help them make appropriate purchasing and production decisions. Natural language data is typically very sparse; the most common words are those that do not carry a lot of semantic content, and occurrences of any particular content-bearing word are rare, while co-occurrences of these words are rarer. Mining product aspects, along with corresponding opinions, is essential for Aspect-Based Opinion Mining (ABOM) as a result of the e-commerce revolution. Therefore, the need for automatic mining of reviews has reached a peak. In this work, we deal with ABOM as sequence labelling problem and propose a supervised extraction method to identify product aspects and corresponding opinions. We use Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) to solve the extraction problem and propose a feature function to enhance accuracy. The proposed method is evaluated using two different datasets. We also evaluate the effectiveness of feature function and the optimisation through multiple experiments.

The logic of data-sense: Thinking through Learning Personalisation

Big Data and Learning Analytics’ promise to revolutionise educational institutions, endeavours, and actions through more and better data is now compelling. Multiple, and continually updating, data sets produce a new sense of ‘personalised learning’. A crucial attribute of the datafication, and subsequent profiling, of learner behaviour and engagement is the continual modification of the learning environment to induce greater levels of investment on the parts of each learner. The assumption is that more and better data, gathered faster and fed into ever-updating algorithms, provide more complete tools to understand, and therefore improve, learning experiences through adaptive personalisation. The argument in this paper is that Learning Personalisation names a new logistics of investment as the common ‘sense’ of the school, in which disciplinary education is ‘both disappearing and giving way to frightful continual training, to continual monitoring'.

Logic of aid in an intertemporal setting

The paper studies the welfare implications of temporary foreign aid in the context of a simple two-country model of trade. In addition to its usual effects, a transfer of income in one period is assumed to influence the preferences of the recipient country in the following period. The implied changes in the terms of trade over the two periods are consistent with a number of possible outcomes with respect to the intertemporal welfare of the donor, the recipient, and the world as a whole. Particular attention is devoted to the conditions for strict Pareto improvement and the circumstances under which temporary aid transactions are likely to occur.

Deeper and wider fully convolutional network coupled with conditional random fields for scene labeling

Deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) have been employed in many computer vision tasks with great success due to their robustness in feature learning. One of the advantages of DCNNs is their representation robustness to object locations, which is useful for object recognition tasks. However, this also discards spatial information, which is useful when dealing with topological information of the image (e.g. scene labeling, face recognition). In this paper, we propose a deeper and wider network architecture to tackle the scene labeling task. The depth is achieved by incorporating predictions from multiple early layers of the DCNN. The width is achieved by combining multiple outputs of the network. We then further refine the parsing task by adopting graphical models (GMs) as a post-processing step to incorporate spatial and contextual information into the network. The new strategy for a deeper, wider convolutional network coupled with graphical models has shown promising results on the PASCAL-Context dataset.