A simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials

A flexible and simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials is proposed in this paper. In order to reduce the computational burden, we adopt a working model with conjugate priors, which is flexible to fit all monotonic dose-toxicity curves and produces analytic posterior distributions. We also discuss how to use a proper utility function to reflect the interest of the trial. Patients are allocated based on not only the utility function but also the chosen dose selection rule. The most popular dose selection rule is the one-step-look-ahead (OSLA), which selects the best-so-far dose. A more complicated rule, such as the two-step-look-ahead, is theoretically more efficient than the OSLA only when the required distributional assumptions are met, which is, however, often not the case in practice. We carried out extensive simulation studies to evaluate these two dose selection rules and found that OSLA was often more efficient than two-step-look-ahead under the proposed Bayesian structure. Moreover, our simulation results show that the proposed Bayesian method's performance is superior to several popular Bayesian methods and that the negative impact of prior misspecification can be managed in the design stage.

A Bayesian decision approach for sample size determination in phase II trials

Stallard (1998, Biometrics 54, 279-294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics 50, 337-349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or total gain for a fixed length of time because the rate of gain depends on the proportion: of treatments forwarding to the phase III study. We suggest maximizing the rate of gain, and the resulting optimal one-stage design becomes twice as efficient as Stallard's one-stage design. Furthermore, the new design has a probability of only 0.12 of passing an ineffective treatment to phase III study.

Isotonic designs for phase I trials

The purpose of a phase I trial in cancer is to determine the level (dose) of the treatment under study that has an acceptable level of adverse effects. Although substantial progress has recently been made in this area using parametric approaches, the method that is widely used is based on treating small cohorts of patients at escalating doses until the frequency of toxicities seen at a dose exceeds a predefined tolerable toxicity rate. This method is popular because of its simplicity and freedom from parametric assumptions. In this payer, we consider cases in which it is undesirable to assume a parametric dose-toxicity relationship. We propose a simple model-free approach by modifying the method that is in common use. The approach assumes toxicity is nondecreasing with dose and fits an isotonic regression to accumulated data. At any point in a trial, the dose given is that with estimated toxicity deemed closest to the maximum tolerable toxicity. Simulations indicate that this approach performs substantially better than the commonly used method and it compares favorably with other phase I designs.

Comparison of treatment effect sizes associated with surrogate and final patient relevant outcomes in randomised controlled trials: meta-epidemiological study

Objective To quantify and compare the treatment effect and risk of bias of trials reporting biomarkers or intermediate outcomes (surrogate outcomes) versus trials using final patient relevant primary outcomes. Design Meta-epidemiological study. Data sources All randomised clinical trials published in 2005 and 2006 in six high impact medical journals: Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, and PLoS Medicine. Study selection Two independent reviewers selected trials. Data extraction Trial characteristics, risk of bias, and outcomes were recorded according to a predefined form. Two reviewers independently checked data extraction. The ratio of odds ratios was used to quantify the degree of difference in treatment effects between the trials using surrogate outcomes and those using patient relevant outcomes, also adjusted for trial characteristics. A ratio of odds ratios >1.0 implies that trials with surrogate outcomes report larger intervention effects than trials with patient relevant outcomes. Results 84 trials using surrogate outcomes and 101 using patient relevant outcomes were considered for analyses. Study characteristics of trials using surrogate outcomes and those using patient relevant outcomes were well balanced, except for median sample size (371 v 741) and single centre status (23% v 9%). Their risk of bias did not differ. Primary analysis showed trials reporting surrogate endpoints to have larger treatment effects (odds ratio 0.51, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.60) than trials reporting patient relevant outcomes (0.76, 0.70 to 0.82), with an unadjusted ratio of odds ratios of 1.47 (1.07 to 2.01) and adjusted ratio of odds ratios of 1.46 (1.05 to 2.04). This result was consistent across sensitivity and secondary analyses. Conclusions Trials reporting surrogate primary outcomes are more likely to report larger treatment effects than trials reporting final patient relevant primary outcomes. This finding was not explained by differences in the risk of bias or characteristics of the two groups of trials.

Dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia: Systematic reviews and economic analyses

- Background Nilotinib and dasatinib are now being considered as alternative treatments to imatinib as a first-line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). - Objective This technology assessment reviews the available evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first-line treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive CML. - Data sources Databases [including MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, Current Controlled Trials, ClinicalTrials.gov, the US Food and Drug Administration website and the European Medicines Agency website] were searched from search end date of the last technology appraisal report on this topic in October 2002 to September 2011. - Review methods A systematic review of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies; a review of surrogate relationships with survival; a review and critique of manufacturer submissions; and a model-based economic analysis. - Results Two clinical trials (dasatinib vs imatinib and nilotinib vs imatinib) were included in the effectiveness review. Survival was not significantly different for dasatinib or nilotinib compared with imatinib with the 24-month follow-up data available. The rates of complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) were higher for patients receiving dasatinib than for those with imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 83% vs 72%, p < 0.001; MMR 46% vs 28%, p < 0.0001). The rates of CCyR and MMR were higher for patients receiving nilotinib than for those receiving imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 80% vs 65%, p < 0.001; MMR 44% vs 22%, p < 0.0001). An indirect comparison analysis showed no difference between dasatinib and nilotinib for CCyR or MMR rates for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR, odds ratio 1.09, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.92; MMR, odds ratio 1.28, 95% CI 0.77 to 2.16). There is observational association evidence from imatinib studies supporting the use of CCyR and MMR at 12 months as surrogates for overall all-cause survival and progression-free survival in patients with CML in chronic phase. In the cost-effectiveness modelling scenario, analyses were provided to reflect the extensive structural uncertainty and different approaches to estimating OS. First-line dasatinib is predicted to provide very poor value for money compared with first-line imatinib, with deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of between £256,000 and £450,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Conversely, first-line nilotinib provided favourable ICERs at the willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000-30,000 per QALY. - Limitations Immaturity of empirical trial data relative to life expectancy, forcing either reliance on surrogate relationships or cumulative survival/treatment duration assumptions. - Conclusions From the two trials available, dasatinib and nilotinib have a statistically significant advantage compared with imatinib as measured by MMR or CCyR. Taking into account the treatment pathways for patients with CML, i.e. assuming the use of second-line nilotinib, first-line nilotinib appears to be more cost-effective than first-line imatinib. Dasatinib was not cost-effective if decision thresholds of £20,000 per QALY or £30,000 per QALY were used, compared with imatinib and nilotinib. Uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness analysis would be substantially reduced with better and more UK-specific data on the incidence and cost of stem cell transplantation in patients with chronic CML. - Funding The Health Technology Assessment Programme of the National Institute for Health Research.

Dacomitinib versus erlotinib in patients with EGFR-mutated advanced nonsmall-cell lung cancer (NSCLC): Pooled subset analyses from two randomized trials

Background: The irreversible epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitors have demonstrated efficacy in NSCLC patients with activating EGFR mutations, but it is unknown if they are superior to the reversible inhibitors. Dacomitinib is an oral, small-molecule irreversible inhibitor of all enzymatically active HER family tyrosine kinases. Methods: The ARCHER 1009 (NCT01360554) and A7471028 (NCT00769067) studies randomized patients with locally advanced/metastatic NSCLC following progression with one or two prior chemotherapy regimens to dacomitinib or erlotinib. EGFR mutation testing was performed centrally on archived tumor samples. We pooled patients with exon 19 deletion and L858R EGFR mutations from both studies to compare the efficacy of dacomitinib to erlotinib. Results: One hundred twenty-one patients with any EGFR mutation were enrolled; 101 had activating mutations in exon 19 or 21. For patients with exon19/21 mutations, the median progression-free survival was 14.6 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.0–18.2] with dacomitinib and 9.6 months (95% CI 7.4–12.7) with erlotinib [unstratified hazard ratio (HR) 0.717 (95% CI 0.458–1.124), two-sided log-rank, P = 0.146]. The median survival was 26.6 months (95% CI 21.6–41.5) with dacomitinib versus 23.2 months (95% CI 16.0–31.8) with erlotinib [unstratified HR 0.737 (95% CI 0.431–1.259), two-sided log-rank, P = 0.265]. Dacomitinib was associated with a higher incidence of diarrhea and mucositis in both studies compared with erlotinib. Conclusions: Dacomitinib is an active agent with comparable efficacy to erlotinib in the EGFR mutated patients. The subgroup with exon 19 deletion had favorable outcomes with dacomitinib. An ongoing phase III study will compare dacomitinib to gefitinib in first-line therapy of patients with NSCLC harboring common activating EGFR mutations (ARCHER 1050; NCT01774721). Clinical trials number: ARCHER 1009 (NCT01360554) and A7471028 (NCT00769067).

Fresh-frozen vs irradiated allograft bone in orthopaedic reconstructive surgery

The use of allograft bone is increasingly common in orthopaedic reconstruction procedures. The optimal method of preparation of allograft bone is subject of great debate. Proponents of fresh-frozen graft cite improved biological and biomechanical characteristics relative to irradiated material, whereas fear of bacterial or viral transmission warrants some to favour irradiated graft. Careful review of the literature is necessary to appreciate the influence of processing techniques on bone quality. Whereas limited clinical trials are available to govern the selection of appropriate bone graft, this review presents the argument favouring the use of fresh-frozen bone allograft as compared to irradiated bone.

Major depressive disorder and nutritional medicine : a review of monotherapies and adjuvant treatments

A literature review was conducted to examine the evidence for nutritional interventions in depression. It revealed a number of significant conclusions. Interestingly, more positive clinical trials were found to support adjuvant, rather than monotherapeutic, use of nutrients to treat depression. Much evidence exists in the area of adjuvant application of folic acid, S-adenosyl-methionine, omega-3, and L-tryptophan with antidepressants. Current evidence does not support omega-3 as an effective monotherapy to treat depression. However, this may be due, at least in part, to olive oil being used as the control intervention, some studies using docosahexaenoic acid alone or a higher docosahexaenoic acid to eicosapentaenoic acid ratio, and significant heterogeneity regarding depressive populations. Nevertheless, adjunctive prescription of omega-3 with antidepressants, or in people with dietary deficiency, may be beneficial. Inositol lacks evidence as an effective antidepressant and cannot be currently recommended. Evidence on the use of L-trytophan for depression is inconclusive and additional studies utilizing a more robust methodology are required.

Interventions for co-occurring addictive and other mental disorders (AMDs)

While research on the management of co-occurring addictive and mental disorders (AMDs) has grown substantially in recent years, we still have little guidance on specific strategies. Consideration of epidemiological research and ethical principles can supplement existing clinical trials in providing a way forward. High frequencies of co-occurring disorders, equity of access for affected individuals and potential clashes between services in priorities and procedures, suggest that a stepped model of care by a single service may often be required. Typically, problems are multiple rather than dual, with potential for mutual influence, suggesting a need for interventions that are sensitive to and encompass complex co-occurring problems. Motivational problems are endemic, initial gains are often partial and unstable, and relapses potentially have serious consequences, suggesting a need for long-term, assertive follow-up. Principles such as these provide a solid framework for designing both services and interventions. However, there is a continuing need for controlled trials that unpack effective components of interventions, and increase their impact.

New findings with old drugs for osteoporosis

Background : Postmenopausal osteoporosis is common and is associated with stooped posture, loss of height, back pain and fractures. Objectives/methods : This evaluation is of clinical outcome trials with tibolone (Long-Term Intervention of Fractures with Tibolone) and strontium ranelate (Spinal Osteoporosis Therapeutic Intervention) in postmenopausal osteoporosis. Results : Although the Long-Term Intervention of Fractures with Tibolone trial established that tibolone decreased the incidence of vertebral and non-vertebral fractures in postmenopausal osteoporosis, it also showed that tibolone caused a small increase in the incidence of stoke. The Spinal Osteoporosis Therapeutic Intervention trial established that strontium ranelate decreased the incidence of vertebral fractures, but had little effect on the incidence of non-vertebral fractures. Conclusions : As some of the bisphosphonates (alendronate, risedronate, zoledronic acid) have been shown to prevent hip fractures without increasing the incidence of stroke, they should be preferred to tibolone and strontium in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis.

Lyprinol : is it a useful anti-inflammatory agent?

The New Zealand green lipped mussel preparation Lyprinol is available without a prescription from a supermarket, pharmacy or Web. The Food and Drug Administration have recently warned Lyprinol USA about their extravagant anti-inflammatory claims for Lyprinol appearing on the web. These claims are put to thorough review. Lyprinol does have anti-inflammatory mechanisms, and has anti-inflammatory effects in some animal models of inflammation. Lyprinol may have benefits in dogs with arthritis. There are design problems with the clinical trials of Lyprinol in humans as an anti-inflammatory agent in osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis, making it difficult to give a definite answer to how effective Lyprinol is in these conditions, but any benefit is small. Lyprinol also has a small benefit in atopic allergy. As anti-inflammatory agents, there is little to choose between Lyprinol and fish oil. No adverse effects have been reported with Lyprinol. Thus, although it is difficult to conclude whether Lyprinol does much good, it can be concluded that Lyprinol probably does no major harm.

Telcagepant is a new oral treatment for migraine

Background : Migraine is a common cause of disability. Many subjects (30 – 40%) do not respond to the 5-HT 1B/1D agonists (the triptans) commonly used in the treatment of migraine attacks. Calcitonin gene-related protein (CGRP) receptor antagonism is a new approach to the treatment of migraine attacks. Objectives/methods : This evaluation is of a Phase III clinical trial comparing telcagepant, an orally active CGRP receptor antagonist, with zolmitriptan in subjects during an attack of migraine. Results : Telcagepant 300 mg has a similar efficacy to zolmitriptan in relieving pain, phonophobia, photophobia, and nausea. Telcagepant was better tolerated than zolmitriptan. Conclusions : The initial Phase III clinical trial results with telcagepant are promising but several further clinical trials are needed to determine the place of telcagepant in the treatment of migraine attacks

Ticagrelor, a platelet aggregation inhibitor for the potential prevention and treatment of arterial thrombosis and acute coronary syndromes

Ticagrelor is an orally active ADP P2Y12 receptor antagonist in development by AstraZeneca plc for the reduction of recurrent ischemic events in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Prior to the development of ticagrelor, thienopyridine compounds, such as clopidogrel, were the focus of research into therapies for ACS. Although the thienopyridines are effective platelet aggregation inhibitors, they are prodrugs and, consequently, exert a slow onset of action. In addition, the variability in inter-individual metabolism of thienopyridine prodrugs has been associated with reduced efficacy in some patients. Ticagrelor is not a prodrug and exhibits a more rapid onset of action than the thienopyridine prodrugs. In clinical trials conducted to date, ticagrelor was a potent inhibitor of ADP-induced platelet aggregation and demonstrated effects that were comparable to clopidogrel. In a phase II, short-term trial, the bleeding profile of participants treated with ticagrelor was similar to that obtained with clopidogrel; however, an increased incidence of dyspnea was observed - an effect that has not been reported with the thienopyridines. Considering the occurrence of dyspnea, and the apparent non-superiority of ticagrelor to clopidogrel, it is difficult to justify a clear benefit to the continued development of ticagrelor. Outcomes from an ongoing phase III trial comparing ticagrelor with clopidogrel in 18,000 patients with ACS are likely to impact on the future development of ticagrelor.

Tesofensine : a novel potent weight loss medicine

Background: The incidence of obesity is increasing; this is of major concern, as obesity is associated with cardiovascular disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, respiratory tract disease, and cancer. Objectives/methods: This evaluation is of a Phase II clinical trial with tesofensine in obese subjects. Results: After 26 weeks, tesofensine caused a significant weight loss, and may have a higher maximal ability to reduce weight than the presently available anti-obesity agents. However, tesofensine also increased blood pressure and heart rate, and may increase psychiatric disorders. Conclusions: It is encouraging that tesofensine 0.5 mg may cause almost double the weight loss observed with sibutramine or rimonabant. As tesofensine and sibutramine have similar pharmacological profiles, it would be of interest to compare the weight loss with tesofensine in a head-to-head clinical trial with sibutramine, to properly assess their comparative potency. Also, as teso fensine 0.5 mg increases heart rate, as well as increasing the incidence of adverse effects such as nausea, drug mouth, flatulence, insomnia, and depressed mode, its tolerability needs to be further evaluated in large Phase III clinical trials.

Anti-cancer activity of zoledronic acid in breast cancer

Background: Zoledronic acid is used to prevent the bone loss associated with antioestrogen treatments in subjects with breast cancer. Preclinical studies suggest that zoledronic acid may have anticancer activity in its own right. This anticancer possibility with zoledronic acid has not been investigated extensively in clinical trials. Objectives/methods: This evaluation is of a large clinical trial that investigated the effect of zoledronic acid on cancer outcomes in premenopausal women with breast cancer. Results: The trial showed that after 4 years, 94.0% of subjects who were treated with zoledronic acid were disease-free compared with 90.8% of those not treated with zoledronic acid. Recurrence survival was a secondary end point; this occurred in 94.0% with, and 90.9% without, zoledronic acid treatment. Conclusions: Zoledronic acid does have anticancer activity in premenopausal women with cancer.