Assessment of the health impacts of the 2011 summer floods in Brisbane

Background: During December 2010 and January 2011, torrential rainfall in Queensland resulted in the worst flooding in over 50 years. We carried out a community-based survey to assess the health impacts of this flooding in the city of Brisbane. Methods: A community-based survey was conducted in 12 flood-affected electorates using postal questionnaires. A random sample of residents in these areas was drawn from electoral rolls. Questions examined sociodemographic information, the direct impact of flooding on the household, and perceived flood-related health impacts. Outcome variables included perceived flood-related effects on overall and respiratory health, along with mental health outcomes measured by psychosocial distress, reduced sleep quality and probable post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the association between flooding and health outcome variables, adjusted for current health status and socioeconomic factors. Results: 3000 residents were invited to participate in this survey, with 960 responses (32%). People whose households were directly impacted by flooding had a decrease in perceived overall health (OR 5.3, 95% CI: 2.8–10.2), along with increases in psychological distress (OR 1.9, 1.1–3.5), decreased sleep quality (OR 2.3, 1.2–4.4), and probable PTSD (OR 2.3, 1.2–4.5). Residents were also more likely to increase usage of both tobacco (OR 6.3, 2.4–16.8) and alcohol (OR 7.0, 2.2–22.3) after flooding. Conclusions: There were significant impacts of flood events on residents’ health, in particular psychosocial health. Improved support strategies may need to be integrated into existing disaster management programs to reduce flood-related health impacts.

Food insecurity among Australian children : potential determinants, health and developmental consequences

Children in food-insecure households may be at risk of poor health, developmental or behavioural problems. This study investigated the associations between food insecurity, potential determinants and health and developmental outcomes among children. Data on household food security, socio-demographic characteristics and children’s weight, health and behaviour were collected from households with children aged 3–17 years in socioeconomically disadvantaged suburbs by mail survey using proxy-parental reports (185 households). Data were analysed using logistic regression. Approximately one-in-three households (34%) were food insecure. Low household income was associated with an increased risk of food insecurity [odds ratio (OR), 16.20; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.52–74.47]. Children with a parent born outside of Australia were less likely to experience food insecurity (OR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.19–0.93). Children in food-insecure households were more likely to miss days from school or activities (OR, 3.52; 95% CI, 1.46–8.54) and were more likely to have borderline or atypical emotional symptoms (OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.11–5.38) or behavioural difficulties (OR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.04–5.33). Food insecurity may be prevalent among socioeconomically disadvantaged households with children. The potential developmental consequences of food insecurity during childhood may result in serious adverse health and social implications.

Falls after discharge from hospital : is there a gap between older peoples' knowledge about falls prevention strategies and the research evidence?

Purpose: The aim of this study was to examine whether older people are prepared to engage in appropriate falls prevention strategies after discharge from hospital. Design and Methods We used a semi-structured interview to survey older patients about to be discharged from hospital and examined their knowledge regarding falls prevention strategies to utilize in the post-discharge period. The study was part of a prospective cohort study, nested within a larger, randomized controlled trial. Participants (n = 333) were asked to suggest strategies to reduce their falls risk at home after discharge, and their responses were compared with current reported research evidence for falls prevention interventions.  Results Participants’ strategies (n = 629) were classified into 7 categories: behavioral, support while mobilizing, approach to movement, physical environment, visual, medical, and activities or exercise. Although exercise has been identified as an effective falls risk reduction strategy, only 2.9% of participants suggested engaging in exercises. Falls prevention was most often conceptualized by participants as requiring 1 (35.4%) or 2 (40.8%) strategies for avoiding an accidental event, rather than engaging in sustained multiple risk reduction behaviors.  Implications Results demonstrate that older patients have low levels of knowledge about appropriate falls prevention strategies that could be used after discharge in spite of their increased falls risk during this period. Findings suggest that health care workers should design and deliver falls prevention education programs specifically targeted to older people who are to be discharged from hospital.

Assessment of the health impacts of the 2011 summer floods in Brisbane

Objective To assess the effects of the 2011 floods in Brisbane, Australia, on residents’ physical and mental health. Methods Residents who had been affected by the floods completed a community-based survey that examined the direct impact of flooding on households and their perceived physical and mental health. Outcome variables included overall and respiratory health and mental health outcomes related to psychological distress, sleep quality, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the association between flooding and perceived health outcome variables, adjusted for current health status and sociodemographic factors. Results Residents whose households were directly affected by flooding were more likely to report poor overall (Odds Ratio [OR] 5.3; 95% CI, 2.8-10.1) and respiratory (OR 2.3; 95% CI, 1.1-4.6) health, psychological distress (OR 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.5), poor sleep quality (OR 2.3; 95% CI, 1.2-4.4), and probable PTSD (OR 2.3; 95% CI, 1.2-4.5). Conclusions The 2011 Brisbane floods had significant impact on the physical and psychosocial health of residents. Improved support strategies may need to be integrated into existing disaster management programs to reduce flood-related health impacts, particularly those related to mental health.

More men than women make mucosal IgA antibodies to human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16) and HPV-18: A study of oral HPV and oral HPV antibodies in a normal healthy population

Background: We have previously shown the high prevalence of oral anti-human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV-16) antibodies in women with HPV-associated cervical neoplasia. It was postulated that the HPV antibodies were initiated after HPV antigenic stimulation at the cervix via the common mucosal immune system. The present study aimed to further evaluate the effectiveness of oral fluid testing for detecting the mucosal humoral response to HPV infection and to advance our limited understanding of the immune response to HPV. Methods: The prevalence of oral HPV infection and oral antibodies to HPV types 16, 18 and 11 was determined in a normal, healthy population of children, adolescents and adults, both male and female, attending a dental clinic. HPV types in buccal cells were determined by DNA sequencing. Oral fluid was collected from the gingival crevice of the mouth by the OraSure method. HPV-16, HPV-18 and HPV-11 antibodies in oral fluid were detected by virus-like particle-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. As a reference group 44 women with cervical neoplasia were included in the study. Results: Oral HPV infection was h ighest in children (9/114, 7.9%), followed by adolescents (4/78, 5.1%), and lowest in normal adults (4/116, 3.5%). The predominant HPV type found was HPV-13 (7/22, 31.8%) followed by HPV-32 (5/22, 22.7%). The prevalence of oral antibodies to HPV-16, HPV-18 and HPV-11 was low in children and increased substantially in adolescents and normal adults. Oral HPV-16 IgA was significantly more prevalent in women with cervical neoplasia (30/44, 68.2%) than the women from the dental clinic (18/69, 26.1% P = 0.0001). Significantly more adult men than women displayed oral HPV-16 IgA (30/47 compared with 18/69, OR 5.0, 95% CI 2.09-12.1, P < 0.001) and HPV-18 IgA (17/47 compared with 13/69, OR 2.4, 95% CI 0.97-6.2, P = 0.04). Conclusion: The increased prevalence of oral HPV antibodies in adolescent individuals compared with children was attributed to the onset of sexual activity. The increased prevalence of oral anti-HPV IgA in men compared with women was noteworthy considering reportedly fewer men than women make serum antibodies, and warrants further investigation. © 2006 Marais et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Increasing physical activity among women with young children: Results from the Proactive Mums Project

Context Evidence from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Women's Health suggests that mothers of young children have lower levels of physical activity (PA) than women of similar age without children. Objectives The aim of the ProActive Mums project was to determine the relative efficacy of two strategies designed to increase the proportion of mothers of young children who are meeting current PA guidelines, utilising child care centres (CCCs) as the setting for recruitment. Study Design The project used a randomised (after stratification to ensure even representation of CCCs from differing socio-economic areas) design incorporating repeated data collection from women in three groups, each consisting of 7 childcare centres (CCCs). Baseline surveys were completed by 554 mothers, with follow-up data collection immediately post-Intervention (8 weeks after baseline) and again 5 months later. Women from CCCs in Group 1 (control) received only the surveys throughout the duration of the project. Women from CCCs in Group 2 (information only) were given a print intervention, and women from CCCs in Group 3 were (in addition to being given the same print intervention as women from CCCs in Group 2) invited to to contribute to the development of, and participate in, strategies for the promotion of PA among mothers of young children. The two intervention strategies were extensively evaluated through a series of surveys and interviews. The Intervention The print intervention prescribed for women from CCCs in Group 2 and Group 3 consisted of an 8-page booklet containing motivational messages and information about physical activity. Women from CCCs in Group 3 were also invited to attend meetings at their CCC to identify strategies for increasing their PA. Contacts were made with key stakeholders in the community, including managers of sporting and recreation facilities, childcare service providers, and local councils. A wide range of strategies was developed during the intervention phase of the project, which specifically focused on the need to increase partner support and self-efficacy (or the confidence to be physically active). Results The mean age of participants was 33 (+ 4.8) years, and the mean number of children per family unit was 2.2 (± 0.9). At baseline, fewer than half the women were meeting current guidelines for adequate PA for health benefit, and there were no significant differences between groups in the proportion of women who were adequately active for health benefit. Women in Group 3 were significantly more likely to meet the guidelines at post-intervention follow-up than controls [OR = 1.71 (1.05-2.77)] after controlling for age and PA at baseline. There was no significant effect of the print intervention alone on meeting guidelines at post-intervention follow-up compared with controls, after controlling for age and PA at baseline [OR = 1.15 (0.70-1.89)]. Changes in Partner Support (PS) and Self Efficacy (SE) significantly predicted meeting current PA guidelines at post-intervention follow-up after controlling for baseline PA [∆ PS: OR = 2.29 (1.46-3.58); ∆ SE: OR = 1.86 (1.17- 2.94)]. The intervention effect in Group 3 was not maintained at long-term follow-up. Conclusions The findings indicate that a community participation approach that facilitates increased partner support and self-efficacy can be effective in increasing PA among mothers of young children. Changes in physical activity were found to be mediated by changes in partner support and self-efficacy for physical activity, suggesting that the intervention successfully targeted the individual characteristics it intended to, and that these variables do play an important role in increasing physical activity among women with young children. It is clear that further work needs to be done to explore methods of translating the short-term intervention effect shown in this study into long-term changes in PA behaviour. This study also provided insight into measurement issues in PA research and raised questions about self-report measures of PA and perceived constraints to being physically active. The results from post-study qualitative interviews suggest that many women at this life-stage experience time constraints which, when accompanied by a lack of partner support and financial constraints, make leisure-time PA virtually impossible for many women. Future strategies might focus on targeting this population immediately prior to this life-stage in an attempt to encourage habitual physical activity before women have children. Increasing PA in this population should also address the entire family unit, and consider the way leisure-time is negotiated among the adults within a household. Social change and increased awareness of the range of benefits of PA for women with children are additional strategies to be considered.

Post-match changes in neuromuscular function and the relationship to match demands in amateur rugby league matches

Objectives: The current study investigated the change in neuromuscular contractile properties following competitive rugby league matches and the relationship with physical match demands. Design: Eleven trained, male rugby league players participated in 2–3 amateur, competitive matches (n = 30). Methods: Prior to, immediately (within 15-min) and 2 h post-match, players performed repeated counter-movement jumps (CMJ) followed by isometric tests on the right knee extensors for maximal voluntary contraction (MVC), voluntary activation (VA) and evoked twitch contractile properties of peak twitch force (Pt), rate of torque development (RTD), contraction duration (CD) and relaxation rate (RR). During each match, players wore 1 Hz Global Positioning Satellite devices to record distance and speeds of matches. Further, matches were filmed and underwent notational analysis for number of total body collisions. Results: Total, high-intensity, very-high intensity distances covered and mean speed were 5585 ± 1078 m, 661 ± 265, 216 ± 121 m and 75 ± 14 m min−1, respectively. MVC was significantly reduced immediately and 2 h post-match by 8 ± 11 and 12 ± 13% from pre-match (p < 0.05). Moreover, twitch contractile properties indicated a suppression of Pt, RTD and RR immediately post-match (p < 0.05). However, VA was not significantly altered from pre-match (90 ± 9%), immediately-post (89 ± 9%) or 2 h post (89 ± 8%), (p > 0.05). Correlation analyses indicated that total playing time (r = −0.50) and mean speed (r = −0.40) were moderately associated to the change in post-match MVC, while mean speed (r = 0.35) was moderately associated to VA. Conclusions: The present study highlights the physical demands of competitive amateur rugby league result in interruption of peripheral contractile function, and post-match voluntary torque suppression may be associated with match playing time and mean speeds.

Pinned fronts in heterogeneous media of jump type

In this paper, we analyse the impact of a (small) heterogeneity of jump type on the most simple localized solutions of a 3-component FitzHugh–Nagumo-type system. We show that the heterogeneity can pin a 1-front solution, which travels with constant (non-zero) speed in the homogeneous setting, to a fixed, explicitly determined, distance from the heterogeneity. Moreover, we establish the stability of this heterogeneous pinned 1-front solution. In addition, we analyse the pinning of 1-pulse, or 2-front, solutions. The paper is concluded with simulations in which we consider the dynamics and interactions of N-front patterns in domains with M heterogeneities of jump type (N = 3, 4, M ≥ 1).

Postpartum diet quality in Australian women following a gestational diabetes pregnancy

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To describe the diet quality of a national sample of Australian women with a recent history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and determine factors associated with adherence to national dietary recommendations. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A postpartum lifestyle survey with 1499 Australian women diagnosed with GDM p3 years previously. Diet quality was measured using the Australian recommended food score (ARFS) and weighted by demographic and diabetes management characteristics. Multinominal logistic regression analysis was used to determine the association between diet quality and demographic characteristics, health seeking behaviours and diabetes-related risk factors. RESULTS: Mean (±s.d.) ARFS was 30.9±8.1 from a possible maximum score of 74. Subscale component scores demonstrated that the nuts/legumes, grains and fruits were the most poorly scored. Factors associated with being in the highest compared with the lowest ARFS quintile included age (odds ratio (OR) 5-year increase=1.40; 95% (confidence interval) CI:1.16–1.68), tertiary education (OR=2.19; 95% CI:1.52–3.17), speaking only English (OR=1.92; 95% CI:1.19–3.08), being sufficiently physically active (OR=2.11; 95% CI:1.46–3.05), returning for postpartum blood glucose testing (OR=1.75; 95% CI:1.23–2.50) and receiving riskreduction advice from a health professional (OR=1.80; 95% CI:1.24–2.60). CONCLUSIONS: Despite an increased risk of type 2 diabetes, women in this study had an overall poor diet quality as measured by the ARFS. Women with GDM should be targeted for interventions aimed at achieving a postpartum diet consistent with the guidelines for chronic disease prevention. Encouraging women to return for follow-up and providing risk reduction advice may be positive initial steps to improve diet quality, but additional strategies need to be identified.

Neighbourhood disadvantage, individual-level socioeconomic position, and self-reported chronic arthritis : a cross-sectional multilevel study

Objective: To examine the association between individual- and neighborhood-level disadvantage and self-reported arthritis. Methods: We used data from a population-based cross-sectional study conducted in 2007 among 10,757 men and women ages 40–65 years, selected from 200 neighborhoods in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia using a stratified 2-stage cluster design. Data were collected using a mail survey (68.5% response). Neighborhood disadvantage was measured using a census-based composite index, and individual disadvantage was measured using self-reported education, household income, and occupation. Arthritis was indicated by self-report. Data were analyzed using multilevel modeling. Results: The overall rate of self-reported arthritis was 23% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 22–24). After adjustment for sociodemographic factors, arthritis prevalence was greatest for women (odds ratio [OR] 1.5, 95% CI 1.4–1.7) and in those ages 60–65 years (OR 4.4, 95% CI 3.7–5.2), those with a diploma/associate diploma (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1–1.6), those who were permanently unable to work (OR 4.0, 95% CI 3.1–5.3), and those with a household income <$25,999 (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.7–2.6). Independent of individual-level factors, residents of the most disadvantaged neighborhoods were 42% (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2–1.7) more likely than those in the least disadvantaged neighborhoods to self-report arthritis. Cross-level interactions between neighborhood disadvantage and education, occupation, and household income were not significant. Conclusion: Arthritis prevalence is greater in more socially disadvantaged neighborhoods. These are the first multilevel data to examine the relationship between individual- and neighborhood-level disadvantage upon arthritis and have important implications for policy, health promotion, and other intervention strategies designed to reduce the rates of arthritis, indicating that intervention efforts may need to focus on both people and places.

Microorganisms within human follicular fluid : effects on IVF

Our previous study reported microorganisms in human follicular fluid. The objective of this study was to test human follicular fluid for the presence of microorganisms and to correlate these findings with the in vitro fertilization (IVF) outcomes. In this study, 263 paired follicular fluids and vaginal swabs were collected from women undergoing IVF cycles, with various causes for infertility, and were cultured to detect microorganisms. The cause of infertility and the IVF outcomes for each woman were correlated with the microorganisms detected within follicular fluid collected at the time of trans-vaginal oocyte retrieval. Microorganisms isolated from follicular fluids were classified as: (1) ‘colonizers’ if microorganisms were detected within the follicular fluid, but not within the vaginal swab (at the time of oocyte retrieval); or (2) ‘contaminants’ if microorganisms detected in the vagina at the time of oocyte retrieval were also detected within the follicular fluid. The presence of Lactobacillus spp. in ovarian follicular fluids was associated with embryo maturation and transfer. This study revealed microorganisms in follicular fluid itself and that the presence of particular microorganisms has an adverse affect on IVF outcomes as seen by an overall decrease in embryo transfer rates and pregnancy rates in both fertile and infertile women, and live birth rates in women with idiopathic infertility. Follicular fluid microorganisms are a potential cause of adverse pregnancy outcomes in IVF in both infertile women and in fertile women with infertile male partners.

Sitting-time, physical activity and depressive symptoms in mid-aged women

Background: Associations between sitting-time and physical activity (PA) with depression are unclear. Purpose: To examine concurrent and prospective associations between both sitting-time and PA with prevalent depressive symptoms in mid-aged Australian women. Methods: Data were from 8,950 women, aged 50-55 years in 2001, who completed mail surveys in 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression questionnaire. Associations between sitting-time (≤4, >4-7, >7 hrs/day) and PA (none, some, meeting guidelines) with depressive symptoms (symptoms/no symptoms) were examined in 2011 in concurrent and lagged mixed effect logistic modeling. Both main effects and interaction models were developed. Results: In main effects modeling, women who sat >7 hrs/day (OR 1.47, 95%CI 1.29-1.67) and women who did no PA (OR 1.99, 95%CI 1.75-2.27) were more likely to have depressive symptoms than women who sat ≤4 hrs/day and who met PA guidelines, respectively. In interaction modeling, the likelihood of depressive symptoms in women who sat >7 hrs/day and did no PA was triple that of women who sat ≤4 hrs/day and met PA guidelines (OR 2.96, 95%CI 2.37-3.69). In prospective main effects and interaction modeling, sitting-time was not associated with depressive symptoms, but women who did no PA were more likely than those who met PA guidelines to have future depressive symptoms (OR 1.26, 95%CI 1.08-1.47). Conclusions: Increasing PA to a level commensurate with PA guidelines can alleviate current depression symptoms and prevent future symptoms in mid-aged women. Reducing sitting-time may ameliorate current symptoms.

Vitamin D status and skin cancer risk independent of time outdoors : 11-year prospective study in and Australian community

Vitamin D may have anti-skin cancer effects, but population-based evidence is lacking. We therefore assessed associations between vitamin D status and skin cancer risk in an Australian subtropical community. We analyzed prospective skin cancer incidence for 11 years following baseline assessment of serum 25(OH)-vitamin D in 1,191 adults (average age 54 years) and used multivariable logistic regression analysis to adjust risk estimates for age, sex, detailed assessments of usual time spent outdoors, phenotypic characteristics, and other possible confounders. Participants with serum 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations above 75 nmol  l(-1) versus those below 75 nmol  l(-1) more often developed basal cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR)=1.51 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-2.07, P=0.01) and melanoma (OR=2.71 (95% CI: 0.98-7.48, P=0.05)). Squamous cell carcinoma incidence tended to be lower in persons with serum 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations above 75 nmol  l(-1) compared with those below 75 nmol  l(-1) (OR=0.67 (95% CI: 0.44-1.03, P=0.07)). Vitamin D status was not associated with skin cancer incidence when participants were classified as above or below 50 nmol  l(-1) 25(OH)-vitamin D. Our findings do not indicate that the carcinogenicity of high sun exposure can be counteracted by high vitamin D status. High sun exposure is to be avoided as a means to achieve high vitamin D status.

Male reproductive health disorders among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men : a hidden problem?

OBJECTIVE: To better understand help-seeking behaviours and reproductive health disorders among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A cross-sectional mixed-methods study conducted from 1 May 2004 to 30 April 2005 of 293 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men aged 18 years and over from urban, rural and remote communities in the Northern Territory and Queensland. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Subscale of the International Index of Erectile Function, self-reported help-seeking behaviours for erectile dysfunction (ED) and prostate disease, thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews and focus groups. RESULTS: The prevalence of moderate-to-severe ED increased across age groups, from about 10% in younger men (under 35 years) to 28% in men aged 55-74 years. Moderate-to-severe ED was strongly associated with reporting a chronic condition (odds ratio [OR], 3.67) and residing in a remote area (OR, 2.94). Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men aged 40-59 years showed similar low levels of help-seeking behaviours compared with non-Indigenous men from a comparable population-based study. About half of the men with ED saw a doctor or received treatment for ED in each population. While prostate cancer rates were low in both studies, testing for prostate problems was less frequent in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men (11.4%) than in non-Indigenous men (34.1%, P < 0.001), despite similar levels of concern about prostate cancer. Barriers to help-seeking included shame, culturally inappropriate services and lack of awareness. CONCLUSION: This study, the first to investigate reproductive health of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men, found low levels of help-seeking behaviours for reproductive health disorders, with implications for missing a predictor of chronic disease and late diagnosis of prostate disease.

Mortality and cost outcomes of elderly trauma patients admitted to intensive care and the general wards of an Australian tertiary referral hospital

Mortality and cost outcomes of elderly intensive care unit (ICU) trauma patients were characterised in a retrospective cohort study from an Australian tertiary ICU. Trauma patients admitted between January 2000 and December 2005 were grouped into three major age categories: aged ≥65 years admitted into ICU (n=272); aged ≥65 years admitted into general ward (n=610) and aged <65 years admitted into ICU (n=1617). Hospital mortality predictors were characterised as odds ratios (OR) using logistic regression. The impact of predictor variables on (log) total hospital-stay costs was determined using least squares regression. An alternate treatment-effects regression model estimated the mortality cost-effect as an endogenous variable. Mortality predictors (P ≤0.0001, comparator: ICU ≥65 years, ventilated) were: ICU <65 not-ventilated (OR 0.014); ICU <65 ventilated (OR 0.090); ICU age ≥65 not-ventilated (OR 0.061) and ward ≥65 (OR 0.086); increasing injury severity score and increased Charlson comorbidity index of 1 and 2, compared with zero (OR 2.21 [1.40 to 3.48] and OR 2.57 [1.45 to 4.55]). The raw mean daily ICU and hospital costs in A$ 2005 (US$) for age <65 and ≥65 to ICU, and ≥65 to the ward were; for year 2000: ICU, $2717 (1462) and $2777 (1494); hospital, $1837 (988) and $1590 (855); ward $933 (502); for year 2005: ICU, $3202 (2393) and $3086 (2307); hospital, $1938 (1449) and $1914 (1431); ward $1180 (882). Cost increments were predicted by age ≥65 and ICU admission, increasing injury severity score, mechanical ventilation, Charlson comorbidity index increments and hospital survival. Mortalitycost-effect was estimated at -63% by least squares regression and -82% by treatment-effects regression model. Patient demographic factors, injury severity and its consequences predict both cost and survival in trauma. The cost mortality effect was biased upwards by conventional least squares regression estimation.