Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Treatment for prevention of HIV transmission in a localised epidemic : the case for South Australia

Background: Discussion is currently taking place among international HIV/AIDS groups around increasing HIV testing and initiating earlier use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people diagnosed with HIV as a method to reduce the spread of HIV. In this study, we explore the expected epidemiological impact of this strategy in a small population in which HIV transmission is predominantly confined to men who have sex with men (MSM). Methods: A deterministic mathematical transmission model was constructed to investigate the impacts of strategies that increase testing and treatment rates, and their likely potential to mitigate HIV epidemics among MSM. Our novel model distinguishes men in the population who are more easily accessible to prevention campaigns through engagement with the gay community from men who are not. This model is applied to the population of MSM in South Australia. Results: Our model-based findings suggest that increasing testing rates alone will have minimal impact on reducing the expected number of infections compared to current conditions. However, in combination with increases in treatment coverage, this strategy could lead to a 59–68% reduction in the number of HIV infections over the next 5 years. Targeting men who are socially engaged with the gay community would result in the majority of potential reductions in incidence, with only minor improvements possible by reaching all other MSM. Conclusions: Investing in strategies that will achieve higher coverage and earlier initiation of treatment to reduce infectiousness of HIV-infected individuals could be an effective strategy for reducing incidence in a population of MSM.

Regulating supply-chains to address the occupational health and safety problems associated with precarious employment: The case of home-based clothing workers in Australia

Over the past 20 years the labour market, workforce and work organisation of most if not all industrialised countries have been significantly refashioned by the increased use of more flexible work arrangements, variously labelled as precarious employment or contingent work. There is now a substantial and growing body of international evidence that many of these arrangements are associated with a significant deterioration in occupational health and safety (OHS), using a range of measures such as injury rates, disease, hazard exposures and work-related stress. Moreover, there is an emerging body of evidence that these arrangements pose particular problems for conventional regulatory regimes. Recognition of these problems has aroused the concern of policy makers - especially in Europe, North America and Australia - and a number of responses have been adopted in terms of modifying legislation, producing new guidance material and codes of practice and revised enforcement practices. This article describes one such in itiative in Australia with regard to home-based clothing workers. The regulatory strategy developed in one Australian jurisdiction (and now being ‘exported’ into others) seeks to counter this process via contractual tracking mechanisms to follow the work, tie in liability and shift overarching legal responsibility to the top of the supply chain. The process also entails the integration of minimum standards relating to wages, hours and working conditions; OHS and access to workers’ compensation. While home-based clothing manufacture represents a very old type of ‘flexible’ work arrangement, it is one that regulators have found especially difficult to address. Further, the elaborate multi-tiered subcont racting and diffuse work locations found in this industry are also characteristic of newer forms of contingent work in other industries (such as some telework) and the regulatory challenges they pose (such as the tendency of elaborate supply chains to attenuate and fracture statutory responsibilities, at least in terms of the attitudes and behaviour of those involved).

Seed germination may explain differences in invasiveness and prevalence : a case study using cat's claw creeper (Dolichandra unguis-cati)

High germination rates and rapid germination behavior in response to different environmental cues are traits that may be associated with invasiveness. Cat’s claw creeper (Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) Lohmann (syn. Macfadyena unguis-cati (L.) Gentry), a Weed of National Significance has two forms, a long-pod (LP) form and a short-pod (SP) from. The LP form occurs in only a few localities in southeast Queensland while the SP form is widely distributed in Queensland and New South Wales. The aims of this investigation were: to evaluate whether there are significant differences in germination traits between the two forms of cat’s claw creeper; and if there are any significant differences, to find out whether the differences in germination can be related to prevalence and invasiveness levels for the two forms. Long pod and short pod seeds collected in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 from various localities in Qld were germinated in growth chambers in early 2013. The growth chambers were set to 10/20 ºC, 15/25 ºC and 20/30 ºC temperature cycles. Seeds from 2009-2012 of either form did not germinate, while for the fresh seeds (2013), SP exhibited significantly higher total germination percentage and rates than LP. Assuming that the two forms were introduced in Australia at around the same period, these results could explain why SP is widely distributed (and therefore more invasive) in Qld and NSW while LP is only confined to a few localities in southeast Qld.

Incidence and predictors of lower limb split-skin graft failure and primary closure dehiscence in day-case surgical patients

BACKGROUND After general surgery, the lower limb experiences some of the highest complication rates. However, little is known about contributing factors to surgical site failure in the lower limb dermatological surgery population. OBJECTIVE To determine the incidence of lower limb surgical site failure and to explore the predictors that contribute to surgical site failure. METHODS A prospective observational study design was used to collect data from 73 participants, from July 2010, to March 2012. Incidence was determined as a percentage of surgical site failure from the total population. Predictors were determined by the use of a binary logistic regression model. RESULTS The surgical site failure rate was 53.4%. Split-skin grafting had a higher failure rate than primary closures, 66% versus 26.1%. Predictors of lower limb surgical site failure were identified as increasing age (p = .04) and the presence of postoperative hematoma (p = .01), with all patients who developed surgical site infection experiencing surgical site failure (p = .01). CONCLUSION Findings from this study confirmed that the lower limb is at high risk of surgical site failure. Two predictors of surgical site failure from this cohort were determined. However, to understand this phenomenon and make recommendations to assist and reduce surgical site complications, further research in this field is required.