Sufficiently informative measurements for stability of approximate conditional mean estimates

This paper establishes sufficient conditions to bound the error in perturbed conditional mean estimates derived from a perturbed model (only the scalar case is shown in this paper but a similar result is expected to hold for the vector case). The results established here extend recent stability results on approximating information state filter recursions to stability results on the approximate conditional mean estimates. The presented filter stability results provide bounds for a wide variety of model error situations.

Does weaker copyright mean stronger creative industries? Some lessons from China

We review the theory of intellectual property (IP) in the creative industries (CI) from the evolutionary economic perspective based on evidence from China. We argue that many current confusions and dysfunctions about IP can be traced to three widely overlooked aspects of the growth of knowledge context of IP in the CI: (1) the effect of globalization; (2) the dominating relative economic value of reuse of creative output over monopoly incentives to create input; and (3) the evolution of business models in response to institutional change. We conclude that a substantial weakening of copyright will, in theory, produce positive net public and private gain due to the evolutionary dynamics of all three dimensions.

Effect of carbohydrate ingestion and ambient temperature on muscle fatigue development in endurance-trained male cyclists

The aim of the present study was to determine the effect of carbohydrate (CHO; sucrose) ingestion and environmental heat on the development of fatigue and the distribution of power output during a 16.1-km cycling time trial. Ten male cyclists (Vo(2max) = 61.7 +/- 5.0 ml.kg(-1).min(-1), mean +/- SD) performed four 90-min constant-pace cycling trials at 80% of second ventilatory threshold (220 +/- 12 W). Trials were conducted in temperate (18.1 +/- 0.4 degrees C) or hot (32.2 +/- 0.7 degrees C) conditions during which subjects ingested either CHO (0.96 g.kg(-1).h(-1)) or placebo (PLA) gels. All trials were followed by a 16.1-km time trial. Before and immediately after exercise, percent muscle activation was determined using superimposed electrical stimulation. Power output, integrated electromyography (iEMG) of vastus lateralis, rectal temperature, and skin temperature were recorded throughout the trial. Percent muscle activation significantly declined during the CHO and PLA trials in hot (6.0 and 6.9%, respectively) but not temperate conditions (1.9 and 2.2%, respectively). The decline in power output during the first 6 km was significantly greater during exercise in the heat. iEMG correlated significantly with power output during the CHO trials in hot and temperate conditions (r = 0.93 and 0.73; P < 0.05) but not during either PLA trial. In conclusion, cyclists tended to self-select an aggressive pacing strategy (initial high intensity) in the heat.

Robust aerodynamic design optimisation of morphing aerofoil/wing using distributed moga

In this paper, the shape design optimisation using morphing aerofoil/wing techniques, namely the leading and/or trailing edge deformation of a natural laminar flow RAE 5243 aerofoil is investigated to reduce transonic drag without taking into account of the piezo actuator mechanism. Two applications using a Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA)coupled with Euler and boundary analyser (MSES) are considered: the first example minimises the total drag with a lift constraint by optimising both the trailing edge actuator position and trailing edge deformation angle at a constant transonic Mach number (M! = 0.75)and boundary layer transition position (xtr = 45%c). The second example consists of finding reliable designs that produce lower mean total drag (μCd) and drag sensitivity ("Cd) at different uncertainty flight conditions based on statistical information. Numerical results illustrate how the solution quality in terms of mean drag and its sensitivity can be improved using MOGA software coupled with a robust design approach taking account of uncertainties (lift and boundary transition positions) and also how transonic flow over aerofoil/wing can be controlled to the best advantage using morphing techniques.

Simplified method for including spatial correlations in mean-field approximations

Biological systems involving proliferation, migration and death are observed across all scales. For example, they govern cellular processes such as wound-healing, as well as the population dynamics of groups of organisms. In this paper, we provide a simplified method for correcting mean-field approximations of volume-excluding birth-death-movement processes on a regular lattice. An initially uniform distribution of agents on the lattice may give rise to spatial heterogeneity, depending on the relative rates of proliferation, migration and death. Many frameworks chosen to model these systems neglect spatial correlations, which can lead to inaccurate predictions of their behaviour. For example, the logistic model is frequently chosen, which is the mean-field approximation in this case. This mean-field description can be corrected by including a system of ordinary differential equations for pair-wise correlations between lattice site occupancies at various lattice distances. In this work we discuss difficulties with this method and provide a simplication, in the form of a partial differential equation description for the evolution of pair-wise spatial correlations over time. We test our simplified model against the more complex corrected mean-field model, finding excellent agreement. We show how our model successfully predicts system behaviour in regions where the mean-field approximation shows large discrepancies. Additionally, we investigate regions of parameter space where migration is reduced relative to proliferation, which has not been examined in detail before, and our method is successful at correcting the deviations observed in the mean-field model in these parameter regimes.

Van der Waals-corrected density functional theory : benchmarking for hydrogen–nanotube and nanotube–nanotube interactions

Density functional theory (DFT) is a powerful approach to electronic structure calculations in extended systems, but suffers currently from inadequate incorporation of long-range dispersion, or Van der Waals (VdW) interactions. VdW-corrected DFT is tested for interactions involving molecular hydrogen, graphite, single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs), and SWCNT bundles. The energy correction, based on an empirical London dispersion term with a damping function at short range, allows a reasonable physisorption energy and equilibrium distance to be obtained for H2 on a model graphite surface. The VdW-corrected DFT calculation for an (8, 8) nanotube bundle reproduces accurately the experimental lattice constant. For H2 inside or outside an (8, 8) SWCNT, we find the binding energies are respectively higher and lower than that on a graphite surface, correctly predicting the well known curvature effect. We conclude that the VdW correction is a very effective method for implementing DFT calculations, allowing a reliable description of both short-range chemical bonding and long-range dispersive interactions. The method will find powerful applications in areas of SWCNT research where empirical potential functions either have not been developed, or do not capture the necessary range of both dispersion and bonding interactions.

Numerical solutions for thin film flow down the outside and inside of a vertical cylinder

We consider a model for thin film flow down the outside and inside of a vertical cylinder. Our focus is to study the effect that the curvature of the cylinder has on the gravity-driven instability of the advancing contact line and to simulate the resulting fingering patterns that form due to this instability. The governing partial differential equation is fourth order with a nonlinear degenerate diffusion term that represents the stabilising effect of surface tension. We present numerical solutions obtained by implementing an efficient alternating direction implicit scheme. When compared to the problem of flow down a vertical plane, we find that increasing substrate curvature tends to increase the fingering instability for flow down the outside of the cylinder, whereas flow down the inside of the cylinder substrate curvature has the opposite effect. Further, we demonstrate the existence of nontrivial travelling wave solutions which describe fingering patterns that propagate down the inside of a cylinder at constant speed without changing form. These solutions are perfectly analogous to those found previously for thin film flow down an inclined plane.

Prevalence and predictors of refractive error in a genetically isolated population : the Norfolk Island Eye Study

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the prevalence and associations of refractive error on Norfolk Island. DESIGN: Population-based study on Norfolk Island, South Pacific. PARTICIPANTS: All permanent residents on Norfolk Island aged ≥ 15 years were invited to participate. METHODS: Patients underwent non-cycloplegic autorefraction, slit-lamp biomicroscope examination and biometry assessment. Only phakic eyes were analysed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence and multivariate associations of refractive error and myopia. RESULTS: There were 677 people (645 right phakic eyes, 648 left phakic eyes) aged ≥ 15 years were included in this study. Mean age of participants was 51.1 (standard deviation 15.7; range 15-81). Three hundred and seventy-six people (55.5%) were female. Adjusted to the 2006 Norfolk Island population, prevalence estimates of refractive error were as follows: myopia (mean spherical equivalent ≥ -1.0 D) 10.1%, hypermetropia (mean spherical equivalent ≥ 1.0 D) 36.6%, and astigmatism 17.7%. Significant independent predictors of myopia in the multivariate model were lower age (P < 0.001), longer axial length (P < 0.001), shallower anterior chamber depth (P = 0.031) and increased corneal curvature (P < 0.001). Significant independent predictors of refractive error were increasing age (P < 0.001), male gender (P = 0.009), Pitcairn ancestry (P = 0.041), cataract (P < 0.001), longer axial length (P < 0.001) and decreased corneal curvature (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of myopia on Norfolk Island is lower than on mainland Australia, and the Norfolk Island population demonstrates ethnic differences in the prevalence estimates. Given the significant associations between refractive error and several ocular biometry characteristics, Norfolk Island may be a useful population in which to find the genetic basis of refractive error.

Genetic response to combined family selection for improved mean harvest weight in giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) in Vietnam

We estimated genetic changes in body and carcass weight traits in a giant freshwater prawn (GFP) (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) population selected for increased body weight at harvest in Vietnam. The data set consisted of 18,387 individual body and 1730 carcass weight records, as well as full pedigree information collected over four generations. Average selection response (per generation) in body weight at harvest (transformed to square root) estimated as the difference between the Selection line and the Control group was 7.4% calculated from least squares mean (LSMs), 7.0% from estimated breeding values (EBVs) and 4.4% calculated from EBVs between two consecutive generations. Favorable correlated selection responses (estimated from LSMs) were found for other body traits including: total length, cephalothorax length, abdominal length, cephalothorax width, and abdominal width (12.1%, 14.5%, 10.4%, 15.5% and 13.3% over three selection generations, respectively). Data in the second generation of selection showed positive correlated responses for carcass weight traits including: abdominal weight, exoskeleton-off weight, and telson-off weight of 8.8%, 8.6% and 8.8%, respectively. We conclude that body weight at harvest responded well to the application of combined (between and within) family selection and correlated responses in carcass weight traits were favorable.

Distinguishing between mean-field, moment dynamics and stochastic descriptions of birth-death-movement processes

Mathematical descriptions of birth–death–movement processes are often calibrated to measurements from cell biology experiments to quantify tissue growth rates. Here we describe and analyze a discrete model of a birth–death-movement process applied to a typical two–dimensional cell biology experiment. We present three different descriptions of the system: (i) a standard mean–field description which neglects correlation effects and clustering; (ii) a moment dynamics description which approximately incorporates correlation and clustering effects, and; (iii) averaged data from repeated discrete simulations which directly incorporates correlation and clustering effects. Comparing these three descriptions indicates that the mean–field and moment dynamics approaches are valid only for certain parameter regimes, and that both these descriptions fail to make accurate predictions of the system for sufficiently fast birth and death rates where the effects of spatial correlations and clustering are sufficiently strong. Without any method to distinguish between the parameter regimes where these three descriptions are valid, it is possible that either the mean–field or moment dynamics model could be calibrated to experimental data under inappropriate conditions, leading to errors in parameter estimation. In this work we demonstrate that a simple measurement of agent clustering and correlation, based on coordination number data, provides an indirect measure of agent correlation and clustering effects, and can therefore be used to make a distinction between the validity of the different descriptions of the birth–death–movement process.

Incorporating spatial correlations into multispecies mean-field models

In biology, we frequently observe different species existing within the same environment. For example, there are many cell types in a tumour, or different animal species may occupy a given habitat. In modelling interactions between such species, we often make use of the mean field approximation, whereby spatial correlations between the locations of individuals are neglected. Whilst this approximation holds in certain situations, this is not always the case, and care must be taken to ensure the mean field approximation is only used in appropriate settings. In circumstances where the mean field approximation is unsuitable we need to include information on the spatial distributions of individuals, which is not a simple task. In this paper we provide a method that overcomes many of the failures of the mean field approximation for an on-lattice volume-excluding birth-death-movement process with multiple species. We explicitly take into account spatial information on the distribution of individuals by including partial differential equation descriptions of lattice site occupancy correlations. We demonstrate how to derive these equations for the multi-species case, and show results specific to a two-species problem. We compare averaged discrete results to both the mean field approximation and our improved method which incorporates spatial correlations. We note that the mean field approximation fails dramatically in some cases, predicting very different behaviour from that seen upon averaging multiple realisations of the discrete system. In contrast, our improved method provides excellent agreement with the averaged discrete behaviour in all cases, thus providing a more reliable modelling framework. Furthermore, our method is tractable as the resulting partial differential equations can be solved efficiently using standard numerical techniques.

Nutrient provision increases signalling and protein synthesis in human skeletal muscle after repeated sprints

The effect of nutrient availability on the acute molecular responses following repeated sprint exercise is unknown. The aim of this study was to determine skeletal muscle cellular and protein synthetic responses following repeated sprint exercise with nutrient provision. Eight healthy young male subjects undertook two sprint cycling sessions (10 × 6 s, 0.75 N m torque kg -1, 54 s recovery) with either pre-exercise nutrient (24 g whey, 4.8 g leucine, 50 g maltodextrin) or non-caloric placebo ingestion. Muscle biopsies were taken from vastus lateralis at rest, and after 15 and 240 min post-exercise recovery to determine muscle cell signalling responses and protein synthesis by primed constant infusion of L-[ring- 13C 6] phenylalanine. Peak and mean power outputs were similar between nutrient and placebo trials. Post-exercise myofibrillar protein synthetic rate was greater with nutrient ingestion compared with placebo ( ? 48%, P<0.05) but the rate of mitochondrial protein synthesis was similar between treatments. The increased myofibrillar protein synthesis following sprints with nutrient ingestion was associated with coordinated increases in Akt-mTOR-S6KrpS6 phosphorylation 15 min post-exercise (?200-600%, P<0.05), while there was no effect on these signalling molecules when exercise was undertaken in the fasted state. For the first time we report a beneficial effect of nutrient provision on anabolic signalling and muscle myofibrillar protein synthesis following repeated sprint exercise. Ingestion of protein/carbohydrate in close proximity to high-intensity sprint exercise provides an environment that increases cell signalling and protein synthesis.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging as a biomarker for the pharmacological response of PTK787/ZK 222584, an inhibitor of the vascular endothelial growth factor receptor tyrosine kinases, in patients with advanced colorectal cancer and liver metastases: Results from two phase I studies

Purpose: PTK787/ZK 222584 (PTK/ZK), an orally active inhibitor of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor tyrosine kinases, inhibits VEGF-mediated angiogenesis. The pharmacodynamic effects of PTK/ZK were evaluated by assessing changes in contrast-enhancement parameters of metastatic liver lesions using dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) in patients with advanced colorectal cancer treated in two ongoing, dose-escalating phase I studies. Patients and Methods: Twenty-six patients had DCE-MRI performed at baseline, day 2, and at the end of each 28-day cycle. Doses of oral PTK/ZK ranged from 50 to 2000 mg once daily. Tumor permeability and vascularity were assessed by calculating the bidirectional transfer constant (Ki). The percentage of baseline Ki (% of baseline Ki) at each time point was compared with pharmacokinetic and clinical end points. Results: A significant negative correlation exists between the % of baseline Ki and increase in PTK/ZK oral dose and plasma levels (P = .01 for oral dose; P = .0001 for area under the plasma concentration curve at day 2). Patients with a best response of stable disease had a significantly greater reduction in Ki at both day 2 and at the end of cycle 1 compared with progressors (mean difference in % of baseline Ki, 47%, P = .004%; and 51%, P = .006; respectively). The difference in % of baseline Ki remained statistically significant after adjusting for baseline WHO performance status. Conclusion: These findings should help to define a biologically active dose of PTK/ZK. These results suggest that DCE-MRI may be a useful biomarker for defining the pharmacological response and dose of angiogenesis inhibitiors, such as PTK/ZK, for further clinical development. © 2003 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Comparing methods for modelling spreading cell fronts

Spreading cell fronts play an essential role in many physiological processes. Classically, models of this process are based on the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation; however, such continuum representations are not always suitable as they do not explicitly represent behaviour at the level of individual cells. Additionally, many models examine only the large time asymptotic behaviour, where a travelling wave front with a constant speed has been established. Many experiments, such as a scratch assay, never display this asymptotic behaviour, and in these cases the transient behaviour must be taken into account. We examine the transient and asymptotic behaviour of moving cell fronts using techniques that go beyond the continuum approximation via a volume-excluding birth-migration process on a regular one-dimensional lattice. We approximate the averaged discrete results using three methods: (i) mean-field, (ii) pair-wise, and (iii) one-hole approximations. We discuss the performace of these methods, in comparison to the averaged discrete results, for a range of parameter space, examining both the transient and asymptotic behaviours. The one-hole approximation, based on techniques from statistical physics, is not capable of predicting transient behaviour but provides excellent agreement with the asymptotic behaviour of the averaged discrete results, provided that cells are proliferating fast enough relative to their rate of migration. The mean-field and pair-wise approximations give indistinguishable asymptotic results, which agree with the averaged discrete results when cells are migrating much more rapidly than they are proliferating. The pair-wise approximation performs better in the transient region than does the mean-field, despite having the same asymptotic behaviour. Our results show that each approximation only works in specific situations, thus we must be careful to use a suitable approximation for a given system, otherwise inaccurate predictions could be made.