Bottlenecks detection of track allocation schemes at rail stations by Petri nets

Robustness of the track allocation problem is rarely addressed in literatures and the obtained track allocation schemes (TAS) embody some bottlenecks. Therefore, an approach to detect bottlenecks is needed to support local optimization. First a TAS is transformed to an executable model by Petri nets. Then disturbances analysis is performed using the model and the indicators of the total trains' departure delays are collected to detect bottlenecks when each train suffers a disturbance. Finally, the results of the tests based on a rail hub linking six lines and a TAS about thirty minutes show that the minimum buffer time is 21 seconds and there are two bottlenecks where the buffer times are 57 and 44 seconds respectively, and it indicates that the bottlenecks do not certainly locate at the area where there is minimum buffer time. The proposed approach can further support selection of multi schemes and robustness optimization.

Quantitative evaluation of route allocation solutions at large-scale passenger stations

Routing trains within passenger stations in major cities is a common scheduling problem for railway operation. Various studies have been undertaken to derive and formulate solutions to this route allocation problem (RAP) which is particularly evident in mainland China nowadays because of the growing traffic demand and limited station capacity. A reasonable solution must be selected from a set of available RAP solutions attained in the planning stage to facilitate station operation. The selection is however based on the experience of the operators only and objective evaluation of the solutions is rarely addressed. In order to maximise the utilisation of station capacity while maintaining service quality and allowing for service disturbance, quantitative evaluation of RAP solutions is highly desirable. In this study, quantitative evaluation of RAP solutions is proposed and it is enabled by a set of indices covering infrastructure utilisation, buffer times and delay propagation. The proposed evaluation is carried out on a number of RAP solutions at a real-life busy railway station in mainland China and the results highlight the effectiveness of the indices in pinpointing the strengths and weaknesses of the solutions. This study provides the necessary platform to improve the RAP solution in planning and to allow train re-routing upon service disturbances.

Fair flow control of ABR service by per-VC virtual queuing

In this paper, a rate-based flow control scheme based upon per-VC virtual queuing is proposed for the Available Bit Rate (ABR) service in ATM. In this scheme, each VC in a shared buffer is assigned a virtual queue, which is a counter. To achieve a specific kind of fairness, an appropriate scheduler is applied to the virtual queues. Each VC's bottleneck rate (fair share) is derived from its virtual cell departure rate. This approach of deriving a VC's fair share is simple and accurate. By controlling each VC with respect to its virtual queue and queue build-up in the shared buffer, network congestion is avoided. The principle of the control scheme is first illustrated by max–min flow control, which is realised by scheduling the virtual queues in round-robin. Further application of the control scheme is demonstrated with the achievement of weighted fairness through weighted round robin scheduling. Simulation results show that with a simple computation, the proposed scheme achieves the desired fairness exactly and controls network congestion effectively.

A Survey of Viruses Affecting Dry Bean and Cowpea in Lebanon

A survey was conducted to identify viruses affecting dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) and cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) in Lebanon. Three hundred and thirty four samples exhibiting virus-like symptoms were collected from 13 different locations during the fall growing season of 1984. Samples were stored at 20 deg C until they were tested by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the presence of blackeye cowpea mosaic virus (B1CMV), bean yellow mosaic virus (BYMV), bean common mosaic virus (BCMV) and cucumber mosaic virus (CMV). In preliminary tests, the extraction buffer 0.1M phosphate + O.1MEDTA, pH 7.4 was found to be far better than the standard extraction buffer and, accordingly, was used for virus extraction for all field samples. Results obtained indicated that around 50% of the bean samples tested were infected with B1CMV. Incidence of BCMV, BYMV and CMV in the samples tested were 4,4 and 1.7%, respectively. B1CMV was detected in 10 locations, whereas, BYMV, BCMV and CMV were found in 1,4 and 4 locations, respectively. Mixed infections such as BCMV, BICMV, BCMV+CMV, BYMV+CMV and BICMV+BCMV+CMV were detected. In 35% of the samples assayed, the causal virus was not identified

Study of the interaction between 10-hydroxycamptothecine and DNA with the use of ethidium bromide dye as a fluorescence probe

The interaction of 10-hydroxycamptothecine (HCPT) with DNA under pseudo-physiological conditions (Tris-HCl buffer of pH 7.4), using ethidium bromide (EB) dye as a probe, was investigated with the use of spectrofluorimetry, UV-vis spectrometry and viscosity measurement. The binding constant and binding number for HCPT with DNA were evaluated as (7.1 ± 0.5) × 104 M-1 and 1.1, respectively, by multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares (MCR-ALS). Moreover, parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) was applied to resolve the three-way fluorescence data obtained from the interaction system, and the concentration information for the three components of the system at equilibrium was simultaneously obtained. It was found that there was a cooperative interaction between the HCPT-DNA complex and EB, which produced a ternary complex of HCPT-DNA-EB. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Iron biogeochemistry and associated greenhouse gas evolution in a forested subtropical Australian coastal catchment : Poona Creek, Southeast Queensland

Iron (Fe) is the fourth most abundant element in the Earth’s crust. Excess Fe mobilization from terrestrial into aquatic systems is of concern for deterioration of water quality via biofouling and nuisance algal blooms in coastal and marine systems. Substantial Fe dissolution and transport involve alternate Fe(II) oxidation followed by Fe(III) reduction, with a diversity of Bacteria and Archaea acting as the key catalyst. Microbially-mediated Fe cycling is of global significance with regard to cycles of carbon (C), sulfur (S) and manganese (Mn). However, knowledge regarding microbial Fe cycling in circumneutral-pH habitats that prevail on Earth has been lacking until recently. In particular, little is known regarding microbial function in Fe cycling and associated Fe mobilization and greenhouse (CO2 and CH4, GHG) evolution in subtropical Australian coastal systems where microbial response to ambient variations such as seasonal flooding and land use changes is of concern. Using the plantation-forested Poona Creek catchment on the Fraser Coast of Southeast Queensland (SEQ), this research aimed to 1) study Fe cycling-associated bacterial populations in diverse terrestrial and aquatic habitats of a representative subtropical coastal circumneutral-pH (4–7) ecosystem; and 2) assess potential impacts of Pinus plantation forestry practices on microbially-mediated Fe mobilization, organic C mineralization and associated GHG evolution in coastal SEQ. A combination of wet-chemical extraction, undisturbed core microcosm, laboratory bacterial cultivation, microscopy and 16S rRNA-based molecular phylogenetic techniques were employed. The study area consisted primarily of loamy sands, with low organic C and dissolved nutrients. Total reactive Fe was abundant and evenly distributed within soil 0–30 cm profiles. Organic complexation primarily controlled Fe bioavailability and forms in well-drained plantation soils and water-logged, native riparian soils, whereas tidal flushing exerted a strong “seawater effect” in estuarine locations and formed a large proportion of inorganic Fe(III) complexes. There was a lack of Fe(II) sources across the catchment terrestrial system. Mature, first-rotation plantation clear-felling and second-rotation replanting significantly decreased organic matter and poorly crystalline Fe in well-drained soils, although variations in labile soil organic C fractions (dissolved organic C, DOC; and microbial biomass C, MBC) were minor. Both well-drained plantation soils and water-logged, native-vegetation soils were inhabited by a variety of cultivable, chemotrophic bacterial populations capable of C, Fe, S and Mn metabolism via lithotrophic or heterotrophic, (micro)aerobic or anaerobic pathways. Neutrophilic Fe(III)-reducing bacteria (FeRB) were most abundant, followed by aerobic, heterotrophic bacteria (heterotrophic plate count, HPC). Despite an abundance of FeRB, cultivable Fe(II)-oxidizing bacteria (FeOB) were absent in associated soils. A lack of links between cultivable Fe, S or Mn bacterial densities and relevant chemical measurements (except for HPC correlated with DOC) was likely due to complex biogeochemical interactions. Neither did variations in cultivable bacterial densities correlate with plantation forestry practices, despite total cultivable bacterial densities being significantly lower in estuarine soils when compared with well-drained plantation soils and water-logged, riparian native-vegetation soils. Given that bacterial Fe(III) reduction is the primary mechanism of Fe oxide dissolution in soils upon saturation, associated Fe mobilization involved several abiotic and biological processes. Abiotic oxidation of dissolved Fe(II) by Mn appeared to control Fe transport and inhibit Fe dissolution from mature, first-rotation plantation soils post-saturation. Such an effect was not observed in clear-felled and replanted soils associated with low SOM and potentially low Mn reactivity. Associated GHG evolution post-saturation mainly involved variable CO2 emissions, with low, but consistently increasing CH4 effluxes in mature, first-rotation plantation soil only. In comparison, water-logged soils in the riparian native-vegetation buffer zone functioned as an important GHG source, with high potentials for Fe mobilization and GHG, particularly CH4 emissions in riparian loam soils associated with high clay and crystalline Fe fractions. Active Fe–C cycling was unlikely to occur in lower-catchment estuarine soils associated with low cultivable bacterial densities and GHG effluxes. As a key component of bacterial Fe cycling, neutrophilic FeOB widely occurred in diverse aquatic, but not terrestrial, habitats of the catchment study area. Stalked and sheathed FeOB resembling Gallionella and Leptothrix were limited to microbial mat material deposited in surface fresh waters associated with a circumneutral-pH seep, and clay-rich soil within riparian buffer zones. Unicellular, Sideroxydans-related FeOB (96% sequence identity) were ubiquitous in surface and subsurface freshwater environments, with highest abundance in estuary-adjacent shallow coastal groundwater water associated with redox transition. The abundance of dissolved C and Fe in the groundwater-dependent system was associated with high numbers of cultivable anaerobic, heterotrophic FeRB, microaerophilic, putatively lithotrophic FeOB and aerobic, heterotrophic bacteria. This research represents the first study of microbial Fe cycling in diverse circumneutral-pH environments (terrestrial–aquatic, freshwater–estuarine, surface–subsurface) of a subtropical coastal ecosystem. It also represents the first study of its kind in the southern hemisphere. This work highlights the significance of bacterial Fe(III) reduction in terrestrial, and bacterial Fe(II) oxidation in aquatic catchment Fe cycling. Results indicate the risk of promotion of Fe mobilization due to plantation clear-felling and replanting, and GHG emissions associated with seasonal water-logging. Additional significant outcomes were also achieved. The first direct evidence for multiple biomineralization patterns of neutrophilic, microaerophilic, unicellular FeOB was presented. A putatively pure culture, which represents the first cultivable neutrophilic FeOB from the southern hemisphere, was obtained as representative FeOB ubiquitous in diverse catchment aquatic habitats.

Sub-tropical high-density, low rise residential buildings: case study 3

The case study 3 team viewed the mitigation of noise and air pollution generated in the transport corridor that borders the study site to be a paramount driver of the urban design solution. These key urban planning strategies were adopted: * Spatial separation from transport corridor pollution source. A linear green zone and environmental buffer was proposed adjacent to the transport corridor to mitigate the environmental noise and air quality impacts of the corridor, and to offer residents opportunities for recreation * Open space forming the key structural principle for neighbourhood design. A significant open space system underpins the planning and manages surface water flows. * Urban blocks running on east-west axis. The open space rationale emphasises an east-west pattern for local streets. Street alignment allows for predominantly north-south facing terrace type buildings which both face the street and overlook the green courtyard formed by the perimeter buildings. The results of the ESD assessment of the typologies conclude that the design will achieve good outcomes through: * Lower than average construction costs compared with other similar projects * Thermal comfort; A good balance between daylight access and solar gains is achieved * The energy rating achieved for the units is 8.5 stars.

The association between objectively measured neighborhood features and walking in middle-aged adults

Purpose: To explore the role of the neighborhood environment in supporting walking Design: Cross sectional study of 10,286 residents of 200 neighborhoods. Participants were selected using a stratified two-stage cluster design. Data were collected by mail survey (68.5% response rate). Setting: The Brisbane City Local Government Area, Australia, 2007. Subjects: Brisbane residents aged 40 to 65 years. Measures Environmental: street connectivity, residential density, hilliness, tree coverage, bikeways, and street lights within a one kilometer circular buffer from each resident’s home; and network distance to nearest river or coast, public transport, shop, and park. Walking: minutes in the previous week categorized as < 30 minutes, ≥ 30 < 90 minutes, ≥ 90 < 150 minutes, ≥ 150 < 300 minutes, and ≥ 300 minutes. Analysis: The association between each neighborhood characteristic and walking was examined using multilevel multinomial logistic regression and the model parameters were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Results: After adjustment for individual factors, the likelihood of walking for more than 300 minutes (relative to <30 minutes) was highest in areas with the most connectivity (OR=1.93, 99% CI 1.32-2.80), the greatest residential density (OR=1.47, 99% CI 1.02-2.12), the least tree coverage (OR=1.69, 99% CI 1.13-2.51), the most bikeways (OR=1.60, 99% CI 1.16-2.21), and the most street lights (OR=1.50, 99% CI 1.07-2.11). The likelihood of walking for more than 300 minutes was also higher among those who lived closest to a river or the coast (OR=2.06, 99% CI 1.41-3.02). Conclusion: The likelihood of meeting (and exceeding) physical activity recommendations on the basis of walking was higher in neighborhoods with greater street connectivity and residential density, more street lights and bikeways, closer proximity to waterways, and less tree coverage. Interventions targeting these neighborhood characteristics may lead to improved environmental quality as well as lower rates of overweight and obesity and associated chromic disease.

Quality metrics for assessing security-critical computer programs

Existing secure software development principles tend to focus on coding vulnerabilities, such as buffer or integer overflows, that apply to individual program statements, or issues associated with the run-time environment, such as component isolation. Here we instead consider software security from the perspective of potential information flow through a program’s object-oriented module structure. In particular, we define a set of quantifiable "security metrics" which allow programmers to quickly and easily assess the overall security of a given source code program or object-oriented design. Although measuring quality attributes of object-oriented programs for properties such as maintainability and performance has been well-covered in the literature, metrics which measure the quality of information security have received little attention. Moreover, existing securityrelevant metrics assess a system either at a very high level, i.e., the whole system, or at a fine level of granularity, i.e., with respect to individual statements. These approaches make it hard and expensive to recognise a secure system from an early stage of development. Instead, our security metrics are based on well-established compositional properties of object-oriented programs (i.e., data encapsulation, cohesion, coupling, composition, extensibility, inheritance and design size), combined with data flow analysis principles that trace potential information flow between high- and low-security system variables. We first define a set of metrics to assess the security quality of a given object-oriented system based on its design artifacts, allowing defects to be detected at an early stage of development. We then extend these metrics to produce a second set applicable to object-oriented program source code. The resulting metrics make it easy to compare the relative security of functionallyequivalent system designs or source code programs so that, for instance, the security of two different revisions of the same system can be compared directly. This capability is further used to study the impact of specific refactoring rules on system security more generally, at both the design and code levels. By measuring the relative security of various programs refactored using different rules, we thus provide guidelines for the safe application of refactoring steps to security-critical programs. Finally, to make it easy and efficient to measure a system design or program’s security, we have also developed a stand-alone software tool which automatically analyses and measures the security of UML designs and Java program code. The tool’s capabilities are demonstrated by applying it to a number of security-critical system designs and Java programs. Notably, the validity of the metrics is demonstrated empirically through measurements that confirm our expectation that program security typically improves as bugs are fixed, but worsens as new functionality is added.

Globalization of science education : comment and a commentary

The globalized nature of modern society has generated a number of pressures that impact internationally on countries’ policies and practices of science education. Among these pressures are key issues of health and environment confronting global science, global economic control through multinational capitalism, comparative and competitive international testing of student science achievement, and the desire for more humane and secure international society. These are not all one-way pressures and there is evidence of both more conformity in the intentions and practices of science education and of a greater appreciation of how cultural differences, and the needs of students as future citizens can be met. Hence while a case for economic and competitive subservience of science education can be made, the evidence for such narrowing is countered by new initiatives that seek to broaden its vision and practices. The research community of science education has certainly widened internationally and this generates many healthy exchanges, although cultural styles of education other than Western ones are still insufficiently recognized. The dominance of English language within these research exchanges is, however, causing as many problems as it solves. Science education, like education as a whole, is a strongly cultural phenomenon, and this provides a healthy and robust buffer to the more negative effects of globalization

Microcosm study of ion mobilization and greenhouse gas evolution in soils of a plantation-forested subtropical coastal catchment

This study examined the potential for Fe mobilization and greenhouse gas (GHG, e.g. CO2, and CH4) evolution in SEQ soils associated with a range of plantation forestry practices and water-logged conditions. Intact, 30-cm-deep soil cores collected from representative sites were saturated and incubated for 35 days in the laboratory, with leachate and headspace gas samples periodically collected. Minimal Fe dissolution was observed in well-drained sand soils associated with mature, first-rotation Pinus and organic Fe complexation, whereas progressive Fe dissolution occurred over 14 days in clear-felled and replanted Pinus soils with low organic matter and non-crystalline Fe fractions. Both CO2 and CH4 effluxes were relatively lower in clear-felled and replanted soils compared with mature, first-rotation Pinus soils, despite the lack of statistically significant variations in total GHG effluxes associated with different forestry practices. Fe dissolution and GHG evolution in low-lying, water-logged soils adjacent to riparian and estuarine, native-vegetation buffer zones were impacted by mineral and physical soil properties. Highest levels of dissolved Fe and GHG effluxes resulted from saturation of riparian loam soils with high Fe and clay content, as well as abundant organic material and Fe-metabolizing bacteria. Results indicate Pinus forestry practices such as clear-felling and replanting may elevate Fe mobilization while decreasing CO2 and CH4 emissions from well-drained, SEQ plantation soils upon heavy flooding. Prolonged water-logging accelerates bacterially mediated Fe cycling in low-lying, clay-rich soils, leading to substantial Fe dissolution, organic matter mineralization, and CH4 production in riparian native-vegetation buffer zones.

Simulation-based comparison of pull-push system in motorcycle assembly line

To investigate the effects of adopting a pull system in assembly lines in contrast to a push system, simulation software called “ARENA” is used as a tool in order to present numerical results from both systems. Simulation scenarios are created to evaluate the effects of attributes changing in assembly systems, with influential factors including the change of manufacturing system (push system to pull system) and variation of demand. Moreover, pull system manufacturing consists of the addition attribute, which is the number of buffer storage. This paper will provide an analysis based on a previous case study, hence process time and workflow refer to the journal name “Optimising and simulating the assembly line balancing problem in a motorcycle manufacturing company: a case study” [2]. The implementation of the pull system mechanism is to produce a system improvement in terms of the number of Work-In-Process (WIP), total time of products in the system, and the number of finished product inventory, while retaining the same throughput.

In the bank or on the ground : an examination of financial reserves in Australian international aid organisations

This study contributes to the understanding of the contribution of financial reserves to sustaining nonprofit organisations. Recognising the limited recent Australian research in the area of nonprofit financial vulnerability, it specifically examines financial reserves held by signatories to the Code of Conduct of the Australian Council for International Development (ACFID) for the years 2006 to 2010. As this period includes the Global Financial Crisis, it presents a unique opportunity to observe the role of savings in a period of heightened financial threats to sustainability. The need for nonprofit entities to maintain reserves, while appearing intuitively evident, is neither unanimously accepted nor supported by established theoretic constructs. Some early frameworks attempt to explain the savings behaviour of nonprofit organisations and its role in organisational sustainability. Where researchers have considered the issue, its treatment has usually been either purely descriptive or alternatively, peripheral to a broader attempt to predict financial vulnerability. Given the importance of nonprofit entities to civil society, the sustainability of these organisations during times of economic contraction, such as the recent Global Financial Crisis, is a significant issue. Widespread failure of nonprofits, or even the perception of failure, will directly affect, not only those individuals who access their public goods and services, but would also have impacts on public confidence in both government and the sectors’ ability to manage and achieve their purpose. This study attempts to ‘shine a light’ on the paradox inherent in considering nonprofit savings. On the one hand, a public prevailing view is that nonprofit organisations should not hoard and indeed, should spend all of their funds on the direct achievement of their purposes. Against this, is the commonsense need for a financial buffer if only to allow for the day to day contingencies of pay rises and cost increases. At the entity level, the extent of reserves accumulated (or not) is an important consideration for Management Boards. The general public are also interested in knowing the level of funds held by nonprofits as a measure of both their commitment to purpose and as an indicator of their effectiveness. There is a need to communicate the level and prevalence of reserve holdings, balancing the prudent hedging of uncertainty against a sense of resource hoarding in the mind of donors. Finally, funders (especially governments) are interested in knowing the appropriate level of reserves to facilitate the ongoing sustainability of the sector. This is particularly so where organisations are involved in the provision of essential public goods and services. At a scholarly level, the study seeks to provide a rationale for this behaviour within the context of appropriate theory. At a practical level, the study seeks to give an indication of the drivers for savings, the actual levels of reserves held within the sector studied, as well as an indication as to whether the presence of reserves did mitigate the effects of financial turmoil during the Global Financial Crisis. The argument is not whether there is a need to ensure sustainability of nonprofits, but rather how it is to be done and whether the holding of reserves (net assets) is an essential element is achieving this. While the study offers no simple answers, it does appear that the organisations studied present as two groups, the ‘savers’ who build reserves and keep ‘money in the bank’ and ‘spender-delivers’ who put their resources ‘on the ground’. To progress an understanding of this dichotomy, the study suggests a need to move from its current approach to one which needs to more closely explore accounts based empirical donor attitude and nonprofit Management Board strategy.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Increasing learners’ satisfaction/intention to adopt more e-learning

Purpose: E-learning is an organisationally risky investment given the cost and poor levels of adoption by users. In order to gain a better understanding of this problem, a study was conducted into the use of e-learning in a rail organisation. Design/methodology/approach: Using an online survey, employees of a rail-sector organisation were questioned about their use and likelihood of adoption of e-learning. This study explores the factors that affect the way in which learners experience and perceive such systems. Using statistical analysis, twelve hypotheses are tested and explored. Relationships between learning satisfaction, intention to adopt and the characteristics of e-learning systems were established. Findings: The study found that e-learning characteristics can buffer the relationship between learner characteristics and intention to adopt further e-learning in the future. Further, we found that high levels of support can compensate individuals who are low in technological efficacy to adopt e-learning. Research limitations/implications: The cross-sectional design of the study and its focus on measuring intention to adopt as opposed to actual adoption are both limitations. Future research using longitudinal design and research employing a time lag design measuring actual adoption as well as intention are recommended. Practical implications: From a practical perspective, organizations can focus on the actual content and authenticity of the learning experience delivered by the e-learning system to significantly impact how employees will perceive and use e-learning in the future. Low technological efficacy individuals tend not to adopt new technology. Instead of changing individuals’ personalities, organizations can implement supportive policies and practices which would lead to higher e-learning adoption rate among low efficacy individuals. Originality/value: The study integrates technology adoption and learning literatures in developing enablers for e-learning in organizations. Further, this study collects data from rail employees, and therefore the findings are practical to an industry.