Spatial analysis of notified dengue fever infections

This study aimed to investigate the spatial clustering and dynamic dispersion of dengue incidence in Queensland, Australia. We used Moran’s I statistic to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported dengue cases. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing estimates were used to display the spatial distribution of dengue in postal areas throughout Queensland. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) maps and logistic regression models were used to identify spatial clusters and examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of dengue. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue was clustered during each of the three periods of 1993–1996, 1997–2000 and 2001–2004. The high-incidence clusters of dengue were primarily concentrated in the north of Queensland and low-incidence clusters occurred in the south-east of Queensland. The study concludes that the geographical range of notified dengue cases has significantly expanded in Queensland over recent years.

Applying incremental EM to Bayesian classifiers in the learning of hyperspectral remote sensing data

In this paper, we apply the incremental EM method to Bayesian Network Classifiers to learn and interpret hyperspectral sensor data in robotic planetary missions. Hyperspectral image spectroscopy is an emerging technique for geological investigations from airborne or orbital sensors. Many spacecraft carry spectroscopic equipment as wavelengths outside the visible light in the electromagnetic spectrum give much greater information about an object. The algorithm used is an extension to the standard Expectation Maximisation (EM). The incremental method allows us to learn and interpret the data as they become available. Two Bayesian network classifiers were tested: the Naive Bayes, and the Tree-Augmented-Naive Bayes structures. Our preliminary experiments show that incremental learning with unlabelled data can improve the accuracy of the classifier.

Computed success rates of various carrier phase integer estimation solutions and their comparison with statistical success rates

The success rate of carrier phase ambiguity resolution (AR) is the probability that the ambiguities are successfully fixed to their correct integer values. In existing works, an exact success rate formula for integer bootstrapping estimator has been used as a sharp lower bound for the integer least squares (ILS) success rate. Rigorous computation of success rate for the more general ILS solutions has been considered difficult, because of complexity of the ILS ambiguity pull-in region and computational load of the integration of the multivariate probability density function. Contributions of this work are twofold. First, the pull-in region mathematically expressed as the vertices of a polyhedron is represented by a multi-dimensional grid, at which the cumulative probability can be integrated with the multivariate normal cumulative density function (mvncdf) available in Matlab. The bivariate case is studied where the pull-region is usually defined as a hexagon and the probability is easily obtained using mvncdf at all the grid points within the convex polygon. Second, the paper compares the computed integer rounding and integer bootstrapping success rates, lower and upper bounds of the ILS success rates to the actual ILS AR success rates obtained from a 24 h GPS data set for a 21 km baseline. The results demonstrate that the upper bound probability of the ILS AR probability given in the existing literatures agrees with the actual ILS success rate well, although the success rate computed with integer bootstrapping method is a quite sharp approximation to the actual ILS success rate. The results also show that variations or uncertainty of the unit–weight variance estimates from epoch to epoch will affect the computed success rates from different methods significantly, thus deserving more attentions in order to obtain useful success probability predictions.

The influence of underreported crashes on hotspot identification

Hot spot identification (HSID) plays a significant role in improving the safety of transportation networks. Numerous HSID methods have been proposed, developed, and evaluated in the literature. The vast majority of HSID methods reported and evaluated in the literature assume that crash data are complete, reliable, and accurate. Crash under-reporting, however, has long been recognized as a threat to the accuracy and completeness of historical traffic crash records. As a natural continuation of prior studies, the paper evaluates the influence that under-reported crashes exert on HSID methods. To conduct the evaluation, five groups of data gathered from Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) over the course of three years are adjusted to account for fifteen different assumed levels of under-reporting. Three identification methods are evaluated: simple ranking (SR), empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB). Various threshold levels for establishing hotspots are explored. Finally, two evaluation criteria are compared across HSID methods. The results illustrate that the identification bias—the ability to correctly identify at risk sites--under-reporting is influenced by the degree of under-reporting. Comparatively speaking, crash under-reporting has the largest influence on the FB method and the least influence on the SR method. Additionally, the impact is positively related to the percentage of the under-reported PDO crashes and inversely related to the percentage of the under-reported injury crashes. This finding is significant because it reveals that despite PDO crashes being least severe and costly, they have the most significant influence on the accuracy of HSID.

Interpreting regional frequencies from synchronized phasor measurement in multi-area power systems

In this paper a new approach is proposed for interpreting of regional frequencies in multi machine power systems. The method uses generator aggregation and system reduction based on coherent generators in each area. The reduced system structure is able to be identified and a kalman estimator is designed for the reduced system to estimate the inter-area modes using the synchronized phasor measurement data. The proposed method is tested on a six machine, three area test system and the obtained results show the estimation of inter-area oscillations in the system with a high accuracy.

Machine learning techniques to improve software quality

A significant proportion of the cost of software development is due to software testing and maintenance. This is in part the result of the inevitable imperfections due to human error, lack of quality during the design and coding of software, and the increasing need to reduce faults to improve customer satisfaction in a competitive marketplace. Given the cost and importance of removing errors improvements in fault detection and removal can be of significant benefit. The earlier in the development process faults can be found, the less it costs to correct them and the less likely other faults are to develop. This research aims to make the testing process more efficient and effective by identifying those software modules most likely to contain faults, allowing testing efforts to be carefully targeted. This is done with the use of machine learning algorithms which use examples of fault prone and not fault prone modules to develop predictive models of quality. In order to learn the numerical mapping between module and classification, a module is represented in terms of software metrics. A difficulty in this sort of problem is sourcing software engineering data of adequate quality. In this work, data is obtained from two sources, the NASA Metrics Data Program, and the open source Eclipse project. Feature selection before learning is applied, and in this area a number of different feature selection methods are applied to find which work best. Two machine learning algorithms are applied to the data - Naive Bayes and the Support Vector Machine - and predictive results are compared to those of previous efforts and found to be superior on selected data sets and comparable on others. In addition, a new classification method is proposed, Rank Sum, in which a ranking abstraction is laid over bin densities for each class, and a classification is determined based on the sum of ranks over features. A novel extension of this method is also described based on an observed polarising of points by class when rank sum is applied to training data to convert it into 2D rank sum space. SVM is applied to this transformed data to produce models the parameters of which can be set according to trade-off curves to obtain a particular performance trade-off.

On the consistency of multiclass classification methods

Binary classification methods can be generalized in many ways to handle multiple classes. It turns out that not all generalizations preserve the nice property of Bayes consistency. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for consistency which applies to a large class of multiclass classification methods. The approach is illustrated by applying it to some multiclass methods proposed in the literature.

On the consistency of multiclass classification methods

Binary classification is a well studied special case of the classification problem. Statistical properties of binary classifiers, such as consistency, have been investigated in a variety of settings. Binary classification methods can be generalized in many ways to handle multiple classes. It turns out that one can lose consistency in generalizing a binary classification method to deal with multiple classes. We study a rich family of multiclass methods and provide a necessary and sufficient condition for their consistency. We illustrate our approach by applying it to some multiclass methods proposed in the literature.

Adaboost is consistent

The risk, or probability of error, of the classifier produced by the AdaBoost algorithm is investigated. In particular, we consider the stopping strategy to be used in AdaBoost to achieve universal consistency. We show that provided AdaBoost is stopped after n1-ε iterations---for sample size n and ε ∈ (0,1)---the sequence of risks of the classifiers it produces approaches the Bayes risk.

New variational Bayesian approaches for statistical data mining : with applications to profiling and differentiating habitual consumption behaviour of customers in the wireless telecommunication industry

This thesis investigates profiling and differentiating customers through the use of statistical data mining techniques. The business application of our work centres on examining individuals’ seldomly studied yet critical consumption behaviour over an extensive time period within the context of the wireless telecommunication industry; consumption behaviour (as oppose to purchasing behaviour) is behaviour that has been performed so frequently that it become habitual and involves minimal intentions or decision making. Key variables investigated are the activity initialised timestamp and cell tower location as well as the activity type and usage quantity (e.g., voice call with duration in seconds); and the research focuses are on customers’ spatial and temporal usage behaviour. The main methodological emphasis is on the development of clustering models based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) which are fitted with the use of the recently developed variational Bayesian (VB) method. VB is an efficient deterministic alternative to the popular but computationally demandingMarkov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The standard VBGMMalgorithm is extended by allowing component splitting such that it is robust to initial parameter choices and can automatically and efficiently determine the number of components. The new algorithm we propose allows more effective modelling of individuals’ highly heterogeneous and spiky spatial usage behaviour, or more generally human mobility patterns; the term spiky describes data patterns with large areas of low probability mixed with small areas of high probability. Customers are then characterised and segmented based on the fitted GMM which corresponds to how each of them uses the products/services spatially in their daily lives; this is essentially their likely lifestyle and occupational traits. Other significant research contributions include fitting GMMs using VB to circular data i.e., the temporal usage behaviour, and developing clustering algorithms suitable for high dimensional data based on the use of VB-GMM.

Practical improvements to simultaneous computation of multi-view geometry and radial lens distortion

This paper discusses practical issues related to the use of the division model for lens distortion in multi-view geometry computation. A data normalisation strategy is presented, which has been absent from previous discussions on the topic. The convergence properties of the Rectangular Quadric Eigenvalue Problem solution for computing division model distortion are examined. It is shown that the existing method can require more than 1000 iterations when dealing with severe distortion. A method is presented for accelerating convergence to less than 10 iterations for any amount of distortion. The new method is shown to produce equivalent or better results than the existing method with up to two orders of magnitude reduction in iterations. Through detailed simulation it is found that the number of data points used to compute geometry and lens distortion has a strong influence on convergence speed and solution accuracy. It is recommended that more than the minimal number of data points be used when computing geometry using a robust estimator such as RANSAC. Adding two to four extra samples improves the convergence rate and accuracy sufficiently to compensate for the increased number of samples required by the RANSAC process.

Estimation and control for an open-source quadcopter

This paper describes modelling, estimation and control of the horizontal translational motion of an open-source and cost effective quadcopter — the MikroKopter. We determine the dynamics of its roll and pitch attitude controller, system latencies, and the units associated with the values exchanged with the vehicle over its serial port. Using this we create a horizontal-plane velocity estimator that uses data from the built-in inertial sensors and an onboard laser scanner, and implement translational control using a nested control loop architecture. We present experimental results for the model and estimator, as well as closed-loop positioning.

Adaptive cache aware multiprocessor scheduling framework

Computer resource allocation represents a significant challenge particularly for multiprocessor systems, which consist of shared computing resources to be allocated among co-runner processes and threads. While an efficient resource allocation would result in a highly efficient and stable overall multiprocessor system and individual thread performance, ineffective poor resource allocation causes significant performance bottlenecks even for the system with high computing resources. This thesis proposes a cache aware adaptive closed loop scheduling framework as an efficient resource allocation strategy for the highly dynamic resource management problem, which requires instant estimation of highly uncertain and unpredictable resource patterns. Many different approaches to this highly dynamic resource allocation problem have been developed but neither the dynamic nature nor the time-varying and uncertain characteristics of the resource allocation problem is well considered. These approaches facilitate either static and dynamic optimization methods or advanced scheduling algorithms such as the Proportional Fair (PFair) scheduling algorithm. Some of these approaches, which consider the dynamic nature of multiprocessor systems, apply only a basic closed loop system; hence, they fail to take the time-varying and uncertainty of the system into account. Therefore, further research into the multiprocessor resource allocation is required. Our closed loop cache aware adaptive scheduling framework takes the resource availability and the resource usage patterns into account by measuring time-varying factors such as cache miss counts, stalls and instruction counts. More specifically, the cache usage pattern of the thread is identified using QR recursive least square algorithm (RLS) and cache miss count time series statistics. For the identified cache resource dynamics, our closed loop cache aware adaptive scheduling framework enforces instruction fairness for the threads. Fairness in the context of our research project is defined as a resource allocation equity, which reduces corunner thread dependence in a shared resource environment. In this way, instruction count degradation due to shared cache resource conflicts is overcome. In this respect, our closed loop cache aware adaptive scheduling framework contributes to the research field in two major and three minor aspects. The two major contributions lead to the cache aware scheduling system. The first major contribution is the development of the execution fairness algorithm, which degrades the co-runner cache impact on the thread performance. The second contribution is the development of relevant mathematical models, such as thread execution pattern and cache access pattern models, which in fact formulate the execution fairness algorithm in terms of mathematical quantities. Following the development of the cache aware scheduling system, our adaptive self-tuning control framework is constructed to add an adaptive closed loop aspect to the cache aware scheduling system. This control framework in fact consists of two main components: the parameter estimator, and the controller design module. The first minor contribution is the development of the parameter estimators; the QR Recursive Least Square(RLS) algorithm is applied into our closed loop cache aware adaptive scheduling framework to estimate highly uncertain and time-varying cache resource patterns of threads. The second minor contribution is the designing of a controller design module; the algebraic controller design algorithm, Pole Placement, is utilized to design the relevant controller, which is able to provide desired timevarying control action. The adaptive self-tuning control framework and cache aware scheduling system in fact constitute our final framework, closed loop cache aware adaptive scheduling framework. The third minor contribution is to validate this cache aware adaptive closed loop scheduling framework efficiency in overwhelming the co-runner cache dependency. The timeseries statistical counters are developed for M-Sim Multi-Core Simulator; and the theoretical findings and mathematical formulations are applied as MATLAB m-file software codes. In this way, the overall framework is tested and experiment outcomes are analyzed. According to our experiment outcomes, it is concluded that our closed loop cache aware adaptive scheduling framework successfully drives co-runner cache dependent thread instruction count to co-runner independent instruction count with an error margin up to 25% in case cache is highly utilized. In addition, thread cache access pattern is also estimated with 75% accuracy.

Graph rigidity for near-coplanar structure from motion

Recent algorithms for monocular motion capture (MoCap) estimate weak-perspective camera matrices between images using a small subset of approximately-rigid points on the human body (i.e. the torso and hip). A problem with this approach, however, is that these points are often close to coplanar, causing canonical linear factorisation algorithms for rigid structure from motion (SFM) to become extremely sensitive to noise. In this paper, we propose an alternative solution to weak-perspective SFM based on a convex relaxation of graph rigidity. We demonstrate the success of our algorithm on both synthetic and real world data, allowing for much improved solutions to marker less MoCap problems on human bodies. Finally, we propose an approach to solve the two-fold ambiguity over bone direction using a k-nearest neighbour kernel density estimator.