Exponential integrators and a dual-scale model for wood drying

For the timber industry, the ability to simulate the drying of wood is invaluable for manufacturing high quality wood products. Mathematically, however, modelling the drying of a wet porous material, such as wood, is a diffcult task due to its heterogeneous and anisotropic nature, and the complex geometry of the underlying pore structure. The well{ developed macroscopic modelling approach involves writing down classical conservation equations at a length scale where physical quantities (e.g., porosity) can be interpreted as averaged values over a small volume (typically containing hundreds or thousands of pores). This averaging procedure produces balance equations that resemble those of a continuum with the exception that effective coeffcients appear in their deffnitions. Exponential integrators are numerical schemes for initial value problems involving a system of ordinary differential equations. These methods differ from popular Newton{Krylov implicit methods (i.e., those based on the backward differentiation formulae (BDF)) in that they do not require the solution of a system of nonlinear equations at each time step but rather they require computation of matrix{vector products involving the exponential of the Jacobian matrix. Although originally appearing in the 1960s, exponential integrators have recently experienced a resurgence in interest due to a greater undertaking of research in Krylov subspace methods for matrix function approximation. One of the simplest examples of an exponential integrator is the exponential Euler method (EEM), which requires, at each time step, approximation of φ(A)b, where φ(z) = (ez - 1)/z, A E Rnxn and b E Rn. For drying in porous media, the most comprehensive macroscopic formulation is TransPore [Perre and Turner, Chem. Eng. J., 86: 117-131, 2002], which features three coupled, nonlinear partial differential equations. The focus of the first part of this thesis is the use of the exponential Euler method (EEM) for performing the time integration of the macroscopic set of equations featured in TransPore. In particular, a new variable{ stepsize algorithm for EEM is presented within a Krylov subspace framework, which allows control of the error during the integration process. The performance of the new algorithm highlights the great potential of exponential integrators not only for drying applications but across all disciplines of transport phenomena. For example, when applied to well{ known benchmark problems involving single{phase liquid ow in heterogeneous soils, the proposed algorithm requires half the number of function evaluations than that required for an equivalent (sophisticated) Newton{Krylov BDF implementation. Furthermore for all drying configurations tested, the new algorithm always produces, in less computational time, a solution of higher accuracy than the existing backward Euler module featured in TransPore. Some new results relating to Krylov subspace approximation of '(A)b are also developed in this thesis. Most notably, an alternative derivation of the approximation error estimate of Hochbruck, Lubich and Selhofer [SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 19(5): 1552{1574, 1998] is provided, which reveals why it performs well in the error control procedure. Two of the main drawbacks of the macroscopic approach outlined above include the effective coefficients must be supplied to the model, and it fails for some drying configurations, where typical dual{scale mechanisms occur. In the second part of this thesis, a new dual{scale approach for simulating wood drying is proposed that couples the porous medium (macroscale) with the underlying pore structure (microscale). The proposed model is applied to the convective drying of softwood at low temperatures and is valid in the so{called hygroscopic range, where hygroscopically held liquid water is present in the solid phase and water exits only as vapour in the pores. Coupling between scales is achieved by imposing the macroscopic gradient on the microscopic field using suitably defined periodic boundary conditions, which allows the macroscopic ux to be defined as an average of the microscopic ux over the unit cell. This formulation provides a first step for moving from the macroscopic formulation featured in TransPore to a comprehensive dual{scale formulation capable of addressing any drying configuration. Simulation results reported for a sample of spruce highlight the potential and flexibility of the new dual{scale approach. In particular, for a given unit cell configuration it is not necessary to supply the effective coefficients prior to each simulation.

Conserved and variable features of gag structure and arrangement in immature retrovirus particles

The assembly of retroviruses is driven by oligomerization of the Gag polyprotein. We have used cryo-electron tomography together with subtomogram averaging to describe the three-dimensional structure of in vitro-assembled Gag particles from human immunodeficiency virus, Mason-Pfizer monkey virus, and Rous sarcoma virus. These represent three different retroviral genera: the lentiviruses, betaretroviruses and alpharetroviruses. Comparison of the three structures reveals the features of the supramolecular organization of Gag that are conserved between genera and therefore reflect general principles of Gag-Gag interactions and the features that are specific to certain genera. All three Gag proteins assemble to form approximately spherical hexameric lattices with irregular defects. In all three genera, the N-terminal domain of CA is arranged in hexameric rings around large holes. Where the rings meet, 2-fold densities, assigned to the C-terminal domain of CA, extend between adjacent rings, and link together at the 6-fold symmetry axis with a density, which extends toward the center of the particle into the nucleic acid layer. Although this general arrangement is conserved, differences can be seen throughout the CA and spacer peptide regions. These differences can be related to sequence differences among the genera. We conclude that the arrangement of the structural domains of CA is well conserved across genera, whereas the relationship between CA, the spacer peptide region, and the nucleic acid is more specific to each genus.

Which procurement system? Towards a universal procurement selection technique

Two approaches are described, which aid the selection of the most appropriate procurement arrangements for a building project. The first is a multi-attribute technique based on the National Economic Development Office procurement path decision chart. A small study is described in which the utility factors involved were weighted by averaging the scores of five 'experts' for three hypothetical building projects. A concordance analysis is used to provide some evidence of any abnormal data sources. When applied to the study data, one of the experts was seen to be atypical. The second approach is by means of discriminant analysis. This was found to provide reasonably consistent predictions through three discriminant functions. The analysis also showed the quality criteria to have no significant impact on the decision process. Both approaches provided identical and intuitively correct answers in the study described. Some concluding remarks are made on the potential of discriminant analysis for future research and development in procurement selection techniques.

A Bayesian approach to the determination of ignition delay

A novel in-cylinder pressure method for determining ignition delay has been proposed and demonstrated. This method proposes a new Bayesian statistical model to resolve the start of combustion, defined as being the point at which the band-pass in-cylinder pressure deviates from background noise and the combustion resonance begins. Further, it is demonstrated that this method is still accurate in situations where there is noise present. The start of combustion can be resolved for each cycle without the need for ad hoc methods such as cycle averaging. Therefore, this method allows for analysis of consecutive cycles and inter-cycle variability studies. Ignition delay obtained by this method and by the net rate of heat release have been shown to give good agreement. However, the use of combustion resonance to determine the start of combustion is preferable over the net rate of heat release method because it does not rely on knowledge of heat losses and will still function accurately in the presence of noise. Results for a six-cylinder turbo-charged common-rail diesel engine run with neat diesel fuel at full, three quarters and half load have been presented. Under these conditions the ignition delay was shown to increase as the load was decreased with a significant increase in ignition delay at half load, when compared with three quarter and full loads.

Bayesian survival analysis using gene expression

This thesis developed and applied Bayesian models for the analysis of survival data. The gene expression was considered as explanatory variables within the Bayesian survival model which can be considered the new contribution in the analysis of such data. The censoring factor that is inherent of survival data has also been addressed in terms of its impact on the fitting of a finite mixture of Weibull distribution with and without covariates. To investigate this, simulation study were carried out under several censoring percentages. Censoring percentage as high as 80% is acceptable here as the work involved high dimensional data. Lastly the Bayesian model averaging approach was developed to incorporate model uncertainty in the prediction of survival.

Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

Choroidal thickness in childhood

Purpose To examine choroidal thickness (ChT) and its spatial distribution across the posterior pole in pediatric subjects with normal ocular health and minimal refractive error. Methods ChT was assessed using spectral domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) in 194 children aged between 4-12 years, with spherical equivalent refractive errors between +1.25 and -0.50 DS. A series of OCT scans were collected, imaging the choroid along 4 radial scan lines centered on the fovea (each separated by 45°). Frame averaging was used to reduce noise and enhance chorio-scleral junction visibility. The transverse scale of each scan was corrected to account for magnification effects associated with axial length. Two independent masked observers manually segmented the OCT images to determine ChT at foveal centre, and averaged across a series of perifoveal zones over the central 5 mm. Results The average subfoveal ChT was 330 ± 65 µm (range 189-538 µm), and was significantly influenced by age (p=0.04). The ChT of the 4 to 6 year old age group (312 ± 62 µm) was significantly thinner compared to the 7 to 9 year olds (337 ± 65 µm, p<0.05) and bordered on significance compared to the 10 to 12 year olds (341 ± 61 µm, p=0.08). ChT also exhibited significant variation across the posterior pole, being thicker in more central regions. The choroid was thinner nasally and inferiorly compared to temporally and superiorly. Multiple regression analysis revealed age, axial length and anterior chamber depth were significantly associated with subfoveal ChT (p<0.001). Conclusions ChT increases significantly from early childhood to adolescence. This appears to be a normal feature of childhood eye growth.

Incorporating spatial correlations into multispecies mean-field models

In biology, we frequently observe different species existing within the same environment. For example, there are many cell types in a tumour, or different animal species may occupy a given habitat. In modelling interactions between such species, we often make use of the mean field approximation, whereby spatial correlations between the locations of individuals are neglected. Whilst this approximation holds in certain situations, this is not always the case, and care must be taken to ensure the mean field approximation is only used in appropriate settings. In circumstances where the mean field approximation is unsuitable we need to include information on the spatial distributions of individuals, which is not a simple task. In this paper we provide a method that overcomes many of the failures of the mean field approximation for an on-lattice volume-excluding birth-death-movement process with multiple species. We explicitly take into account spatial information on the distribution of individuals by including partial differential equation descriptions of lattice site occupancy correlations. We demonstrate how to derive these equations for the multi-species case, and show results specific to a two-species problem. We compare averaged discrete results to both the mean field approximation and our improved method which incorporates spatial correlations. We note that the mean field approximation fails dramatically in some cases, predicting very different behaviour from that seen upon averaging multiple realisations of the discrete system. In contrast, our improved method provides excellent agreement with the averaged discrete behaviour in all cases, thus providing a more reliable modelling framework. Furthermore, our method is tractable as the resulting partial differential equations can be solved efficiently using standard numerical techniques.

Application of cepstrum pre-whitening for the diagnosis of bearing faults under variable speed conditions

Diagnostics of rolling element bearings involves a combination of different techniques of signal enhancing and analysis. The most common procedure presents a first step of order tracking and synchronous averaging, able to remove the undesired components, synchronous with the shaft harmonics, from the signal, and a final step of envelope analysis to obtain the squared envelope spectrum. This indicator has been studied thoroughly, and statistically based criteria have been obtained, in order to identify damaged bearings. The statistical thresholds are valid only if all the deterministic components in the signal have been removed. Unfortunately, in various industrial applications, characterized by heterogeneous vibration sources, the first step of synchronous averaging is not sufficient to eliminate completely the deterministic components and an additional step of pre-whitening is needed before the envelope analysis. Different techniques have been proposed in the past with this aim: The most widely spread are linear prediction filters and spectral kurtosis. Recently, a new technique for pre-whitening has been proposed, based on cepstral analysis: the so-called cepstrum pre-whitening. Owing to its low computational requirements and its simplicity, it seems a good candidate to perform the intermediate pre-whitening step in an automatic damage recognition algorithm. In this paper, the effectiveness of the new technique will be tested on the data measured on a full-scale industrial bearing test-rig, able to reproduce the harsh conditions of operation. A benchmark comparison with the traditional pre-whitening techniques will be made, as a final step for the verification of the potentiality of the cepstrum pre-whitening.

Order tracking for discrete-random separation in variable speed conditions

The transmission path from the excitation to the measured vibration on the surface of a mechanical system introduces a distortion both in amplitude and in phase. Moreover, in variable speed conditions, the amplification/attenuation and the phase shift, due to the transfer function of the mechanical system, varies in time. This phenomenon reduces the effectiveness of the traditionally tachometer based order tracking, compromising the results of a discrete-random separation performed by a synchronous averaging. In this paper, for the first time, the extent of the distortion is identified both in the time domain and in the order spectrum of the signal, highlighting the consequences for the diagnostics of rotating machinery. A particular focus is given to gears, providing some indications on how to take advantage of the quantification of the disturbance to better tune the techniques developed for the compensation of the distortion. The full theoretical analysis is presented and the results are applied to an experimental case.

Sampling designs on stream networks using the pseudo-Bayesian approach

Monitoring stream networks through time provides important ecological information. The sampling design problem is to choose locations where measurements are taken so as to maximise information gathered about physicochemical and biological variables on the stream network. This paper uses a pseudo-Bayesian approach, averaging a utility function over a prior distribution, in finding a design which maximizes the average utility. We use models for correlations of observations on the stream network that are based on stream network distances and described by moving average error models. Utility functions used reflect the needs of the experimenter, such as prediction of location values or estimation of parameters. We propose an algorithmic approach to design with the mean utility of a design estimated using Monte Carlo techniques and an exchange algorithm to search for optimal sampling designs. In particular we focus on the problem of finding an optimal design from a set of fixed designs and finding an optimal subset of a given set of sampling locations. As there are many different variables to measure, such as chemical, physical and biological measurements at each location, designs are derived from models based on different types of response variables: continuous, counts and proportions. We apply the methodology to a synthetic example and the Lake Eacham stream network on the Atherton Tablelands in Queensland, Australia. We show that the optimal designs depend very much on the choice of utility function, varying from space filling to clustered designs and mixtures of these, but given the utility function, designs are relatively robust to the type of response variable.

Wide-area control of aggregated power systems

This paper proposes a new method for stabilizing disturbed power systems using wide area measurement and FACTS devices. The approach focuses on both first swing and damping stability of power systems following large disturbances. A two step control algorithm based on Lyapunov Theorem is proposed to be applied on the controllers to improve the power systems stability. The proposed approach is simulated on two test systems and the results show significant improvement in the first swing and damping stability of the test systems.

Damage evaluation based on a wave energy flow map using multiple PZT sensors

A new wave energy flow (WEF) map concept was proposed in this work. Based on it, an improved technique incorporating the laser scanning method and Betti’s reciprocal theorem was developed to evaluate the shape and size of damage as well as to realize visualization of wave propagation. In this technique, a simple signal processing algorithm was proposed to construct the WEF map when waves propagate through an inspection region, and multiple lead zirconate titanate (PZT) sensors were employed to improve inspection reliability. Various damages in aluminum and carbon fiber reinforced plastic laminated plates were experimentally and numerically evaluated to validate this technique. The results show that it can effectively evaluate the shape and size of damage from wave field variations around the damage in the WEF map.

The "Shackleton Site" (IODP Site U1385) on the Iberian Margin

Nick Shackleton’s research on piston cores from the Iberian margin highlighted the importance of this region for providing high-fidelity records of millennial-scale climate variability, and for correlating climate events from the marine environment to polar ice cores and European terrestrial sequences. During the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 339, we sought to extend the Iberian margin sediment record by drilling with the D/V JOIDES Resolution. Five holes were cored at Site U1385 using the advanced piston corer (APC) system to a maximum depth of ∼ 155.9 m below sea floor (m b.s.f.). Immediately after the expedition, cores from all holes were analyzed by core scanning X-ray fluorescence (XRF) at 1 cm spatial resolution. Ca/Ti data were used to accurately correlate from hole-to-hole and construct a composite spliced section, containing no gaps or disturbed intervals to 166.5 m composite depth (mcd). A low-resolution (20 cm sample spacing) oxygen isotope record confirms that Site U1385 contains a continuous record of hemipelagic sedimentation from the Holocene to 1.43 Ma (Marine Isotope Stage 46). The sediment profile at Site U1385 extends across the middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) with sedimentation rates averaging ∼ 10 cm kyr−1. Strongprecession cycles in colour and elemental XRF signals provide a powerful tool for developing an orbitally tuned reference timescale. Site U1385 is likely to become an important type section for marine–ice–terrestrial core correlations and the study of orbital- and millennial-scale climate variability.

Verifiable multi-secret sharing schemes for multiple threshold access structures

A multi-secret sharing scheme allows several secrets to be shared amongst a group of participants. In 2005, Shao and Cao developed a verifiable multi-secret sharing scheme where each participant’s share can be used several times which reduces the number of interactions between the dealer and the group members. In addition some secrets may require a higher security level than others involving the need for different threshold values. Recently Chan and Chang designed such a scheme but their construction only allows a single secret to be shared per threshold value. In this article we combine the previous two approaches to design a multiple time verifiable multi-secret sharing scheme where several secrets can be shared for each threshold value. Since the running time is an important factor for practical applications, we will provide a complexity comparison of our combined approach with respect to the previous schemes.