204 resultados para Asymptotic behaviour, Bayesian methods, Mixture models, Overfitting, Posterior concentration


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As Web searching becomes more prolific for information access worldwide, we need to better understand users’ Web searching behaviour and develop better models of their interaction with Web search systems. Web search modelling is a significant and important area of Web research. Searching on the Web is an integral element of information behaviour and human–computer interaction. Web searching includes multitasking processes, the allocation of cognitive resources among several tasks, and shifts in cognitive, problem and knowledge states. In addition to multitasking, cognitive coordination and cognitive shifts are also important, but are under-explored aspects of Web searching. During the Web searching process, beyond physical actions, users experience various cognitive activities. Interactive Web searching involves many users’ cognitive shifts at different information behaviour levels. Cognitive coordination allows users to trade off the dependences among multiple information tasks and the resources available. Much research has been conducted into Web searching. However, few studies have modelled the nature of and relationship between multitasking, cognitive coordination and cognitive shifts in the Web search context. Modelling how Web users interact with Web search systems is vital for the development of more effective Web IR systems. This study aims to model the relationship between multitasking, cognitive coordination and cognitive shifts during Web searching. A preliminary theoretical model is presented based on previous studies. The research is designed to validate the preliminary model. Forty-two study participants were involved in the empirical study. A combination of data collection instruments, including pre- and post-questionnaires, think-aloud protocols, search logs, observations and interviews were employed to obtain users’ comprehensive data during Web search interactions. Based on the grounded theory approach, qualitative analysis methods including content analysis and verbal protocol analysis were used to analyse the data. The findings were inferred through an analysis of questionnaires, a transcription of think-aloud protocols, the Web search logs, and notes on observations and interviews. Five key findings emerged. (1) Multitasking during Web searching was demonstrated as a two-dimensional behaviour. The first dimension was represented as multiple information problems searching by task switching. Users’ Web searching behaviour was a process of multiple tasks switching, that is, from searching on one information problem to searching another. The second dimension of multitasking behaviour was represented as an information problem searching within multiple Web search sessions. Users usually conducted Web searching on a complex information problem by submitting multiple queries, using several Web search systems and opening multiple windows/tabs. (2) Cognitive shifts were the brain’s internal response to external stimuli. Cognitive shifts were found as an essential element of searching interactions and users’ Web searching behaviour. The study revealed two kinds of cognitive shifts. The first kind, the holistic shift, included users’ perception on the information problem and overall information evaluation before and after Web searching. The second kind, the state shift, reflected users’ changes in focus between the different cognitive states during the course of Web searching. Cognitive states included users’ focus on the states of topic, strategy, evaluation, view and overview. (3) Three levels of cognitive coordination behaviour were identified: the information task coordination level, the coordination mechanism level, and the strategy coordination level. The three levels of cognitive coordination behaviour interplayed to support multiple information tasks switching. (4) An important relationship existed between multitasking, cognitive coordination and cognitive shifts during Web searching. Cognitive coordination as a management mechanism bound together other cognitive processes, including multitasking and cognitive shifts, in order to move through users’ Web searching process. (5) Web search interaction was shown to be a multitasking process which included information problems ordering, task switching and task and mental coordinating; also, at a deeper level, cognitive shifts took place. Cognitive coordination was the hinge behaviour linking multitasking and cognitive shifts. Without cognitive coordination, neither multitasking Web searching behaviour nor the complicated mental process of cognitive shifting could occur. The preliminary model was revisited with these empirical findings. A revised theoretical model (MCC Model) was built to illustrate the relationship between multitasking, cognitive coordination and cognitive shifts during Web searching. Implications and limitations of the study are also discussed, along with future research work.

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Regional safety program managers face a daunting challenge in the attempt to reduce deaths, injuries, and economic losses that result from motor vehicle crashes. This difficult mission is complicated by the combination of a large perceived need, small budget, and uncertainty about how effective each proposed countermeasure would be if implemented. A manager can turn to the research record for insight, but the measured effect of a single countermeasure often varies widely from study to study and across jurisdictions. The challenge of converting widespread and conflicting research results into a regionally meaningful conclusion can be addressed by incorporating "subjective" information into a Bayesian analysis framework. Engineering evaluations of crashes provide the subjective input on countermeasure effectiveness in the proposed Bayesian analysis framework. Empirical Bayes approaches are widely used in before-and-after studies and "hot-spot" identification; however, in these cases, the prior information was typically obtained from the data (empirically), not subjective sources. The power and advantages of Bayesian methods for assessing countermeasure effectiveness are presented. Also, an engineering evaluation approach developed at the Georgia Institute of Technology is described. Results are presented from an experiment conducted to assess the repeatability and objectivity of subjective engineering evaluations. In particular, the focus is on the importance, methodology, and feasibility of the subjective engineering evaluation for assessing countermeasures.

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The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the validity of using Gaussian mixture models (GMM) for representing probabilistic distributions in a decentralised data fusion (DDF) framework. GMMs are a powerful and compact stochastic representation allowing efficient communication of feature properties in large scale decentralised sensor networks. It will be shown that GMMs provide a basis for analytical solutions to the update and prediction operations for general Bayesian filtering. Furthermore, a variant on the Covariance Intersect algorithm for Gaussian mixtures will be presented ensuring a conservative update for the fusion of correlated information between two nodes in the network. In addition, purely visual sensory data will be used to show that decentralised data fusion and tracking of non-Gaussian states observed by multiple autonomous vehicles is feasible.

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This paper proposes the use of eigenvoice modeling techniques with the Cross Likelihood Ratio (CLR) as a criterion for speaker clustering within a speaker diarization system. The CLR has previously been shown to be a robust decision criterion for speaker clustering using Gaussian Mixture Models. Recently, eigenvoice modeling techniques have become increasingly popular, due to its ability to adequately represent a speaker based on sparse training data, as well as an improved capture of differences in speaker characteristics. This paper hence proposes that it would be beneficial to capitalize on the advantages of eigenvoice modeling in a CLR framework. Results obtained on the 2002 Rich Transcription (RT-02) Evaluation dataset show an improved clustering performance, resulting in a 35.1% relative improvement in the overall Diarization Error Rate (DER) compared to the baseline system.

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This thesis develops a detailed conceptual design method and a system software architecture defined with a parametric and generative evolutionary design system to support an integrated interdisciplinary building design approach. The research recognises the need to shift design efforts toward the earliest phases of the design process to support crucial design decisions that have a substantial cost implication on the overall project budget. The overall motivation of the research is to improve the quality of designs produced at the author's employer, the General Directorate of Major Works (GDMW) of the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces. GDMW produces many buildings that have standard requirements, across a wide range of environmental and social circumstances. A rapid means of customising designs for local circumstances would have significant benefits. The research considers the use of evolutionary genetic algorithms in the design process and the ability to generate and assess a wider range of potential design solutions than a human could manage. This wider ranging assessment, during the early stages of the design process, means that the generated solutions will be more appropriate for the defined design problem. The research work proposes a design method and system that promotes a collaborative relationship between human creativity and the computer capability. The tectonic design approach is adopted as a process oriented design that values the process of design as much as the product. The aim is to connect the evolutionary systems to performance assessment applications, which are used as prioritised fitness functions. This will produce design solutions that respond to their environmental and function requirements. This integrated, interdisciplinary approach to design will produce solutions through a design process that considers and balances the requirements of all aspects of the design. Since this thesis covers a wide area of research material, 'methodological pluralism' approach was used, incorporating both prescriptive and descriptive research methods. Multiple models of research were combined and the overall research was undertaken following three main stages, conceptualisation, developmental and evaluation. The first two stages lay the foundations for the specification of the proposed system where key aspects of the system that have not previously been proven in the literature, were implemented to test the feasibility of the system. As a result of combining the existing knowledge in the area with the newlyverified key aspects of the proposed system, this research can form the base for a future software development project. The evaluation stage, which includes building the prototype system to test and evaluate the system performance based on the criteria defined in the earlier stage, is not within the scope this thesis. The research results in a conceptual design method and a proposed system software architecture. The proposed system is called the 'Hierarchical Evolutionary Algorithmic Design (HEAD) System'. The HEAD system has shown to be feasible through the initial illustrative paper-based simulation. The HEAD system consists of the two main components - 'Design Schema' and the 'Synthesis Algorithms'. The HEAD system reflects the major research contribution in the way it is conceptualised, while secondary contributions are achieved within the system components. The design schema provides constraints on the generation of designs, thus enabling the designer to create a wide range of potential designs that can then be analysed for desirable characteristics. The design schema supports the digital representation of the human creativity of designers into a dynamic design framework that can be encoded and then executed through the use of evolutionary genetic algorithms. The design schema incorporates 2D and 3D geometry and graph theory for space layout planning and building formation using the Lowest Common Design Denominator (LCDD) of a parameterised 2D module and a 3D structural module. This provides a bridge between the standard adjacency requirements and the evolutionary system. The use of graphs as an input to the evolutionary algorithm supports the introduction of constraints in a way that is not supported by standard evolutionary techniques. The process of design synthesis is guided as a higher level description of the building that supports geometrical constraints. The Synthesis Algorithms component analyses designs at four levels, 'Room', 'Layout', 'Building' and 'Optimisation'. At each level multiple fitness functions are embedded into the genetic algorithm to target the specific requirements of the relevant decomposed part of the design problem. Decomposing the design problem to allow for the design requirements of each level to be dealt with separately and then reassembling them in a bottom up approach reduces the generation of non-viable solutions through constraining the options available at the next higher level. The iterative approach, in exploring the range of design solutions through modification of the design schema as the understanding of the design problem improves, assists in identifying conflicts in the design requirements. Additionally, the hierarchical set-up allows the embedding of multiple fitness functions into the genetic algorithm, each relevant to a specific level. This supports an integrated multi-level, multi-disciplinary approach. The HEAD system promotes a collaborative relationship between human creativity and the computer capability. The design schema component, as the input to the procedural algorithms, enables the encoding of certain aspects of the designer's subjective creativity. By focusing on finding solutions for the relevant sub-problems at the appropriate levels of detail, the hierarchical nature of the system assist in the design decision-making process.

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Readily accepted knowledge regarding crash causation is consistently omitted from efforts to model and subsequently understand motor vehicle crash occurrence and their contributing factors. For instance, distracted and impaired driving accounts for a significant proportion of crash occurrence, yet is rarely modeled explicitly. In addition, spatially allocated influences such as local law enforcement efforts, proximity to bars and schools, and roadside chronic distractions (advertising, pedestrians, etc.) play a role in contributing to crash occurrence and yet are routinely absent from crash models. By and large, these well-established omitted effects are simply assumed to contribute to model error, with predominant focus on modeling the engineering and operational effects of transportation facilities (e.g. AADT, number of lanes, speed limits, width of lanes, etc.) The typical analytical approach—with a variety of statistical enhancements—has been to model crashes that occur at system locations as negative binomial (NB) distributed events that arise from a singular, underlying crash generating process. These models and their statistical kin dominate the literature; however, it is argued in this paper that these models fail to capture the underlying complexity of motor vehicle crash causes, and thus thwart deeper insights regarding crash causation and prevention. This paper first describes hypothetical scenarios that collectively illustrate why current models mislead highway safety researchers and engineers. It is argued that current model shortcomings are significant, and will lead to poor decision-making. Exploiting our current state of knowledge of crash causation, crash counts are postulated to arise from three processes: observed network features, unobserved spatial effects, and ‘apparent’ random influences that reflect largely behavioral influences of drivers. It is argued; furthermore, that these three processes in theory can be modeled separately to gain deeper insight into crash causes, and that the model represents a more realistic depiction of reality than the state of practice NB regression. An admittedly imperfect empirical model that mixes three independent crash occurrence processes is shown to outperform the classical NB model. The questioning of current modeling assumptions and implications of the latent mixture model to current practice are the most important contributions of this paper, with an initial but rather vulnerable attempt to model the latent mixtures as a secondary contribution.

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In the field of face recognition, Sparse Representation (SR) has received considerable attention during the past few years. Most of the relevant literature focuses on holistic descriptors in closed-set identification applications. The underlying assumption in SR-based methods is that each class in the gallery has sufficient samples and the query lies on the subspace spanned by the gallery of the same class. Unfortunately, such assumption is easily violated in the more challenging face verification scenario, where an algorithm is required to determine if two faces (where one or both have not been seen before) belong to the same person. In this paper, we first discuss why previous attempts with SR might not be applicable to verification problems. We then propose an alternative approach to face verification via SR. Specifically, we propose to use explicit SR encoding on local image patches rather than the entire face. The obtained sparse signals are pooled via averaging to form multiple region descriptors, which are then concatenated to form an overall face descriptor. Due to the deliberate loss spatial relations within each region (caused by averaging), the resulting descriptor is robust to misalignment & various image deformations. Within the proposed framework, we evaluate several SR encoding techniques: l1-minimisation, Sparse Autoencoder Neural Network (SANN), and an implicit probabilistic technique based on Gaussian Mixture Models. Thorough experiments on AR, FERET, exYaleB, BANCA and ChokePoint datasets show that the proposed local SR approach obtains considerably better and more robust performance than several previous state-of-the-art holistic SR methods, in both verification and closed-set identification problems. The experiments also show that l1-minimisation based encoding has a considerably higher computational than the other techniques, but leads to higher recognition rates.

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Data associated with germplasm collections are typically large and multivariate with a considerable number of descriptors measured on each of many accessions. Pattern analysis methods of clustering and ordination have been identified as techniques for statistically evaluating the available diversity in germplasm data. While used in many studies, the approaches have not dealt explicitly with the computational consequences of large data sets (i.e. greater than 5000 accessions). To consider the application of these techniques to germplasm evaluation data, 11328 accessions of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L) from the International Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, Andhra Pradesh, India were examined. Data for nine quantitative descriptors measured in the rainy and post-rainy growing seasons were used. The ordination technique of principal component analysis was used to reduce the dimensionality of the germplasm data. The identification of phenotypically similar groups of accessions within large scale data via the computationally intensive hierarchical clustering techniques was not feasible and non-hierarchical techniques had to be used. Finite mixture models that maximise the likelihood of an accession belonging to a cluster were used to cluster the accessions in this collection. The patterns of response for the different growing seasons were found to be highly correlated. However, in relating the results to passport and other characterisation and evaluation descriptors, the observed patterns did not appear to be related to taxonomy or any other well known characteristics of groundnut.

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In this paper we propose a novel approach to multi-action recognition that performs joint segmentation and classification. This approach models each action using a Gaussian mixture using robust low-dimensional action features. Segmentation is achieved by performing classification on overlapping temporal windows, which are then merged to produce the final result. This approach is considerably less complicated than previous methods which use dynamic programming or computationally expensive hidden Markov models (HMMs). Initial experiments on a stitched version of the KTH dataset show that the proposed approach achieves an accuracy of 78.3%, outperforming a recent HMM-based approach which obtained 71.2%.

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Background: Preventing risk factor exposure is vital to reduce the high burden from lung cancer. The leading risk factor for developing lung cancer is tobacco smoking. In Australia, despite apparent success in reducing smoking prevalence, there is limited information on small area patterns and small area temporal trends. We sought to estimate spatio-temporal patterns for lung cancer risk factors using routinely collected population-based cancer data. Methods: The analysis used a Bayesian shared component spatio-temporal model, with male and female lung cancer included separately. The shared component reflected exposure to lung cancer risk factors, and was modelled over 477 statistical local areas (SLAs) and 15 years in Queensland, Australia. Analyses were also run adjusting for area-level socioeconomic disadvantage, Indigenous population composition, or remoteness. Results: Strong spatial patterns were observed in the underlying risk factor exposure for both males (median Relative Risk (RR) across SLAs compared to the Queensland average ranged from 0.48-2.00) and females (median RR range across SLAs 0.53-1.80), with high exposure observed in many remote areas. Strong temporal trends were also observed. Males showed a decrease in the underlying risk across time, while females showed an increase followed by a decrease in the final two years. These patterns were largely consistent across each SLA. The high underlying risk estimates observed among disadvantaged, remote and indigenous areas decreased after adjustment, particularly among females. Conclusion: The modelled underlying exposure appeared to reflect previous smoking prevalence, with a lag period of around 30 years, consistent with the time taken to develop lung cancer. The consistent temporal trends in lung cancer risk factors across small areas support the hypothesis that past interventions have been equally effective across the state. However, this also means that spatial inequalities have remained unaddressed, highlighting the potential for future interventions, particularly among remote areas.

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This project was a step forward in applying statistical methods and models to provide new insights for more informed decision-making at large spatial scales. The model has been designed to address complicated effects of ecological processes that govern the state of populations and uncertainties inherent in large spatio-temporal datasets. Specifically, the thesis contributes to better understanding and management of the Great Barrier Reef.

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In the field of face recognition, sparse representation (SR) has received considerable attention during the past few years, with a focus on holistic descriptors in closed-set identification applications. The underlying assumption in such SR-based methods is that each class in the gallery has sufficient samples and the query lies on the subspace spanned by the gallery of the same class. Unfortunately, such an assumption is easily violated in the face verification scenario, where the task is to determine if two faces (where one or both have not been seen before) belong to the same person. In this study, the authors propose an alternative approach to SR-based face verification, where SR encoding is performed on local image patches rather than the entire face. The obtained sparse signals are pooled via averaging to form multiple region descriptors, which then form an overall face descriptor. Owing to the deliberate loss of spatial relations within each region (caused by averaging), the resulting descriptor is robust to misalignment and various image deformations. Within the proposed framework, they evaluate several SR encoding techniques: l1-minimisation, Sparse Autoencoder Neural Network (SANN) and an implicit probabilistic technique based on Gaussian mixture models. Thorough experiments on AR, FERET, exYaleB, BANCA and ChokePoint datasets show that the local SR approach obtains considerably better and more robust performance than several previous state-of-the-art holistic SR methods, on both the traditional closed-set identification task and the more applicable face verification task. The experiments also show that l1-minimisation-based encoding has a considerably higher computational cost when compared with SANN-based and probabilistic encoding, but leads to higher recognition rates.

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Agricultural pests are responsible for millions of dollars in crop losses and management costs every year. In order to implement optimal site-specific treatments and reduce control costs, new methods to accurately monitor and assess pest damage need to be investigated. In this paper we explore the combination of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), remote sensing and machine learning techniques as a promising technology to address this challenge. The deployment of UAVs as a sensor platform is a rapidly growing field of study for biosecurity and precision agriculture applications. In this experiment, a data collection campaign is performed over a sorghum crop severely damaged by white grubs (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae). The larvae of these scarab beetles feed on the roots of plants, which in turn impairs root exploration of the soil profile. In the field, crop health status could be classified according to three levels: bare soil where plants were decimated, transition zones of reduced plant density and healthy canopy areas. In this study, we describe the UAV platform deployed to collect high-resolution RGB imagery as well as the image processing pipeline implemented to create an orthoimage. An unsupervised machine learning approach is formulated in order to create a meaningful partition of the image into each of the crop levels. The aim of the approach is to simplify the image analysis step by minimizing user input requirements and avoiding the manual data labeling necessary in supervised learning approaches. The implemented algorithm is based on the K-means clustering algorithm. In order to control high-frequency components present in the feature space, a neighbourhood-oriented parameter is introduced by applying Gaussian convolution kernels prior to K-means. The outcome of this approach is a soft K-means algorithm similar to the EM algorithm for Gaussian mixture models. The results show the algorithm delivers decision boundaries that consistently classify the field into three clusters, one for each crop health level. The methodology presented in this paper represents a venue for further research towards automated crop damage assessments and biosecurity surveillance.