Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: Example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea

This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

Rayleigh theory of ultrasound scattering applied to liquid-filled contrast nanoparticles

We present a novel modified theory based upon Rayleigh scattering of ultrasound from composite nanoparticles with a liquid core and solid shell. We derive closed form solutions to the scattering cross-section and have applied this model to an ultrasound contrast agent consisting of a liquid-filled core (perfluorooctyl bromide, PFOB) encapsulated by a polymer shell (poly-caprolactone, PCL). Sensitivity analysis was performed to predict the dependence of the scattering cross-section upon material and dimensional parameters. A rapid increase in the scattering cross-section was achieved by increasing the compressibility of the core, validating the incorporation of high compressibility PFOB; the compressibility of the shell had little impact on the overall scattering cross-section although a more compressible shell is desirable. Changes in the density of the shell and the core result in predicted local minima in the scattering cross-section, approximately corresponding to the PFOB-PCL contrast agent considered; hence, incorporation of a lower shell density could potentially significantly improve the scattering cross-section. A 50% reduction in shell thickness relative to external radius increased the predicted scattering cross-section by 50%. Although it has often been considered that the shell has a negative effect on the echogeneity due to its low compressibility, we have shown that it can potentially play an important role in the echogeneity of the contrast agent. The challenge for the future is to identify suitable shell and core materials that meet the predicted characteristics in order to achieve optimal echogenity.

A 3D visualisation model applied to a thick, multi-layered alluvial groundwater system under stress : Condamine Valley, QLD

The upper Condamine River in southern Queensland has formed extensive alluvial deposits which have been used for irrigation of cotton crops for over 40 years. Due to excessive use and long term drought conditions these groundwater resources are under substantial threat. This condition is now recognised by all stakeholders, and Qld Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) are currently undertaking a water planning process for the Central Condamine Alluvium with water users and other stakeholders. DERM aims to effectively demonstrate the character of the groundwater system and its current status, and notably the continued long-term drawdown of the watertable. It was agreed that 3D visualisation was an ideal tool to achieve this. The Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS) developed at QUT was utilised and the visualisation model developed in conjunction with DERM to achieve a planning-management tool for this particular application

Psychometric validation of the growth and empowerment measure (GEM) applied with Indigenous Australians

Objective: Empowerment is a complex process of psychological, social, organizational and structural change. It allows individuals and groups to achieve positive growth and effectively address the social and psychological impacts of historical oppression, marginalization and disadvantage. The Growth and Empowerment Measure (GEM) was developed to measure change in dimensions of empowerment as defi ned and described by Aboriginal Australians who participated in the Family Well Being programme.---------- Method: The GEM has two components: a 14-item Emotional Empowerment Scale (EES14) and 12 Scenarios (12S). It is accompanied by the Kessler 6 Psychological Distress Scale (K6), supplemented by two questions assessing frequency of happy and angry feelings. For validation, the measure was applied with 184 Indigenous Australian participants involved in personal and/or organizational social health activities.---------- Results: Psychometric analyses of the new instruments support their validity and reliability and indicate two-component structures for both the EES (Self-capacity; Inner peace) and the 12S (Healing and enabling growth, Connection and purpose). Strong correlations were observed across the scales and subscales. Participants who scored higher on the newly developed scales showed lower distress on the K6, particularly when the two additional questions were included. However, exploratory factor analyses demonstrated that GEM subscales are separable from the Kessler distress measure.---------- Conclusion: The GEM shows promise in enabling measurement and enhancing understanding of both process and outcome of psychological and social empowerment within an Australian Indigenous context.

Continuous passive motion applied to whole joints stimulates chondrocyte blosynthesis of PRG4

Continuous passive motion (CPM) is currently a part of patient rehabilitation regimens after a variety of orthopedic surgical procedures. While CPM can enhance the joint healing process, the direct effects of CPM on cartilage metabolism remain unknown. Recent in vivo and in vitro observations suggest that mechanical stimuli can regulate articular cartilage metabolism of proteoglycan 4 (PRG4), a putative lubricating and chondroprotective molecule found in synovial fluid and at the articular cartilage surface. ----- ----- Objectives: (1) Determine the topographical variation in intrinsic cartilage PRG4 secretion. (2) Apply a CPM device to whole joints in bioreactors and assess effects of CPM on PRG4 biosynthesis.----- ----- Methods: A bioreactor was developed to apply CPM to bovine stifle joints in vitro. Effects of 24 h of CPM on PRG4 biosynthesis were determined.----- ----- Results: PRG4 secretion rate varied markedly over the joint surface. Rehabilitative joint motion applied in the form of CPM regulated PRG4 biosynthesis, in a manner dependent on the duty cycle of cartilage sliding against opposing tissues. Specifically, in certain regions of the femoral condyle that were continuously or intermittently sliding against meniscus and tibial cartilage during CPM, chondrocyte PRG4 synthesis was higher with CPM than without.----- ----- Conclusions: Rehabilitative joint motion, applied in the form of CPM, stimulates chondrocyte PRG4 metabolism. The stimulation of PRG4 synthesis is one mechanism by which CPM may benefit cartilage and joint health in post-operative rehabilitation. (C) 2006 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving team dynamics and innovation : the “Aspect Design” approach applied to interaction design

Interaction Design is a fast developing branch of Industrial Design. The availability of cheap microprocessors and sensor electronics allow interactions between people and products that were until recently impossible. This has added additional layers of complexity to the design process. Novice designers find it difficult to effectively juggle these complexities and typically tend to focus on one aspect at a time. They also tend to take a linear, step-by-step approach to the design process in contrast to expert designers who pursue “parallel lines of thought” whilst simultaneously co-evolving both problem and solution. (Lawson, 1993) This paper explores an approach that encourages designers (in this case novice designers) to take a parallel rather than linear approach to the design process. It also addresses the problem of social loafing that tends to occur in team activities.

The measurement of applied forces during anterior single rod surgical correction of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

INTRODUCTION. Following anterior thoracoscopic instrumentation and fusion for the treatment of thoracic AIS, implant related complications have been reported as high as 20.8%. Currently the magnitudes of the forces applied to the spine during anterior scoliosis surgery are unknown. The aim of this study was to measure the segmental compressive forces applied during anterior single rod instrumentation in a series of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients. METHODS. A force transducer was designed, constructed and retrofitted to a surgical cable compression tool, routinely used to apply segmental compression during anterior scoliosis correction. Transducer output was continuously logged during the compression of each spinal joint, the output at completion converted to an applied compression force using calibration data. The angle between adjacent vertebral body screws was also measured on intra-operative frontal plane fluoroscope images taken both before and after each joint compression. The difference in angle between the two images was calculated as an estimate for the achieved correction at each spinal joint. RESULTS. Force measurements were obtained for 15 scoliosis patients (Aged 11-19 years) with single thoracic curves (Cobb angles 47˚- 67˚). In total, 95 spinal joints were instrumented. The average force applied for a single joint was 540 N (± 229 N)ranging between 88 N and 1018 N. Experimental error in the force measurement, determined from transducer calibration was ± 43 N. A trend for higher forces applied at joints close to the apex of the scoliosis was observed. The average joint correction angle measured by fluoroscope imaging was 4.8˚ (±2.6˚, range 0˚-12.6˚). CONCLUSION. This study has quantified in-vivo, the intra-operative correction forces applied by the surgeon during anterior single rod instrumentation. This data provides a useful contribution towards an improved understanding of the biomechanics of scoliosis correction. In particular, this data will be used as input for developing patient-specific finite element simulations of scoliosis correction surgery.

A sociolinguistic approach to applied epistemology : examining technocratic values in global 'Knowledge' policy

This special issue presents an excellent opportunity to study applied epistemology in public policy. This is an important task because the arena of public policy is the social domain in which macro conditions for ‘knowledge work’ and ‘knowledge industries’ are defined and created. We argue that knowledge-related public policy has become overly concerned with creating the politico-economic parameters for the commodification of knowledge. Our policy scope is broader than that of Fuller (1988), who emphasizes the need for a social epistemology of science policy. We extend our focus to a range of policy documents that include communications, science, education and innovation policy (collectively called knowledge-related public policy in acknowledgement of the fact that there is no defined policy silo called ‘knowledge policy’), all of which are central to policy concerned with the ‘knowledge economy’ (Rooney and Mandeville, 1998). However, what we will show here is that, as Fuller (1995) argues, ‘knowledge societies’ are not industrial societies permeated by knowledge, but that knowledge societies are permeated by industrial values. Our analysis is informed by an autopoietic perspective. Methodologically, we approach it from a sociolinguistic position that acknowledges the centrality of language to human societies (Graham, 2000). Here, what we call ‘knowledge’ is posited as a social and cognitive relationship between persons operating on and within multiple social and non-social (or, crudely, ‘physical’) environments. Moreover, knowing, we argue, is a sociolinguistically constituted process. Further, we emphasize that the evaluative dimension of language is most salient for analysing contemporary policy discourses about the commercialization of epistemology (Graham, in press). Finally, we provide a discourse analysis of a sample of exemplary texts drawn from a 1.3 million-word corpus of knowledge-related public policy documents that we compiled from local, state, national and supranational legislatures throughout the industrialized world. Our analysis exemplifies a propensity in policy for resorting to technocratic, instrumentalist and anti-intellectual views of knowledge in policy. We argue that what underpins these patterns is a commodity-based conceptualization of knowledge, which is underpinned by an axiology of narrowly economic imperatives at odds with the very nature of knowledge. The commodity view of knowledge, therefore, is flawed in its ignorance of the social systemic properties of knowing’.