Marginal reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo with application to motor unit number estimation

Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is a method which aims to provide a quantitative indicator of progression of diseases that lead to loss of motor units, such as motor neurone disease. However the development of a reliable, repeatable and fast real-time MUNE method has proved elusive hitherto. Ridall et al. (2007) implement a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm to produce a posterior distribution for the number of motor units using a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account biological information about motor unit activation. However we find that the approach can be unreliable for some datasets since it can suffer from poor cross-dimensional mixing. Here we focus on improved inference by marginalising over latent variables to create the likelihood. In particular we explore how this can improve the RJMCMC mixing and investigate alternative approaches that utilise the likelihood (e.g. DIC (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002)). For this model the marginalisation is over latent variables which, for a larger number of motor units, is an intractable summation over all combinations of a set of latent binary variables whose joint sample space increases exponentially with the number of motor units. We provide a tractable and accurate approximation for this quantity and also investigate simulation approaches incorporated into RJMCMC using results of Andrieu and Roberts (2009).

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

An in-vitro 3-D cell culture model for studying pathomechanisms in AMD

Purpose To develop a novel 3-D cell culture model with the view to studying the pathomechanisms underlying the development of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Our central hypothesis is that the silk structural protein fibroin used in conjunction with cultured human cells can be used to mimic the structural relationships between the RPE and choriocapillaris in health and disease. Methods Co-cultures of human RPE cells (ARPE-19 cells grown in Miller’s medium) and microvascular endothelial cells (HMEC-1 cells grown in endothelial culture medium) were established on opposing sides of a synthetic Bruch’s membrane (3 microns thick) constructed from B mori silk fibroin. Cell attachment was facilitated by pre-coating the fibroin membrane with vitronectin (for ARPE-19 cells) and gelatin (for HMEC-1 cells) respectively. The effects of tropoelastin on attachment of ARPE-19 cells was also examined. Barrier function was examined by measurement of trans-epithelial resistance (TER) using a voltohmmeter (EVOM-2). The phagocytic activity of the synthetic RPE was tested using vitronectin-coated microspheres (2 micron diameter FluoSpheres). In some cultures, membrane defects were created by puncturing within a 24 G needle. The architecture of the synthetic tissue before and after wounding was examined by confocal microscopy after staining for ZO-1 and F-actin. Results The RPE layer of the 3D model developed a cobblestoned morphology (validated by staining for ZO-1 and F-actin), displayed barrier function (validated by measurement of TER) and demonstrated cytoplasmic uptake of vitronectin-coated microspheres. Attachment of ARPE-19 cells to fibroin was unaffected by tropoelastin. Microvascular endothelial cells attached well to the gelatin-coated surface of the fibroin membrane and remained physically separated from the overlaying RPE layer. The fibroin membranes were amenable to puncturing without collapse thus providing the opportunity to study transmembrane migration of the endothelial cells. Conclusions Synthetic Bruch’s membranes constructed from silk fibroin, vitronectin and gelatin, support the co-cultivation of RPE cells and microvascular endothelial cells. The resulting RPE layer displays functions similar to that of native RPE and the entire tri-layered structure displays potential to be used as an in vitro model of choroidal neovascularization.

The cultivation of human retinal pigment epithelial cells on Bombyx mori silk fibroin

We have presently evaluated membranes prepared from Bombyx mori silk fibroin (BMSF), for their potential use as a prosthetic Bruch’s membrane and carrier substrate for human retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cell transplantation. Porous BMSF membranes measuring 3 μm in thickness were prepared from aqueous solutions (3% w/v) containing poly(ethylene oxide) (0.09%). The permeability coefficient for membranes was between 3 and 9 × 10-5 cm/s by using Allura red or 70 kDa FITC-dextran respectively. Average pore size (± sd) was 4.9 ± 2.3 µm and 2.9 ± 1.5 µm for upper and lower membrane surfaces respectively. Optimal attachment of ARPE-19 cells to BMSF membrane was achieved by pre-coating with vitronectin (1 µg/mL). ARPE-19 cultures maintained in low serum on BMSF membranes for approximately 8 weeks, developed a cobble-stoned morphology accompanied by a cortical distribution of F-actin and ZO-1. Similar results were obtained using primary cultures of human RPE cells, but cultures took noticeably longer to establish on BMSF compared with tissue culture plastic. These findings encourage further studies of BMSF as a substrate for RPE cell transplantation.

Zircon chronochemistry of high heat-producing granites in Queensland and Europe

High heat-producing granites (HHPGs) are reservoir rocks for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), yet the origins of their anomalous chemistry remain poorly understood. To gain a better understanding of the characteristic distribution of elemental depletions and enrichments (focussing on U, Th & K) within granite suites of different heritage and tectonic setting, and the processes that lead to these enrichments, we are undertaking a systematic accessory-mineral chronochemical study of two suites of S- and I-type granites in northern Queensland, as well as two archetypal HHPGs in Cornwall, England (S-type) and Soultz-sous- Forêts, France (I-type). Novel zircon LA-ICP-MS chronochemical methods will later be underpinned by a systematic petrographic, scanning electron microscope (SEM), and electron microprobe (EPMA) study of all the REE-Y-Th-U-rich accessory minerals to fully characterise how the composition, textural distributions and associations change with rock chemistry between and among the suites. Preliminary results indicate that zircons with inherited ages do not have anomalously high U (>1000 ppm) & Th (>400 ppm) values (Ahrens, 1965). Instead, enrichment in these HPE is seen in zircons dated to around the time of magmatic emplacement. These results indicate that enrichment arose primarily through fractional crystallisation of the granitic magmas. Our results support the suggestion that a source pre-enriched in the HPEs does not appear to be fundamental for the formation of all HHPGs. Instead fractional crystallisation processes, and the accessory minerals formed in magmas of differing initial compositions, are the key controls on the levels of enrichment observed (e.g. Champion & Chappell, 1992; Chappell & Hine, 2006). One implication is that the most fractionated granites may not be the most enriched in the HPEs and therefore prospective to future EGS development.

Particle formation and interaction

A wide variety of experiments that involve the physics of small particles (μm to cm in size) of planetary significance can be conducted on the Space Station. Processes of interest include nucleation and condensation of particles from a gas, aggregation of small particles into larger ones, and low velocity collisions of particles. Only experiments relevant to planetary processes will be discussed in detail here.

A 250 μg/week dose of vitamin D was as effective as a 50 μg/d dose in healthy adults, but a regimen of four weekly followed by monthly doses of 1250 μg raised the risk of hypercalciuria

The risk of vitamin D insufficiency is increased in persons having limited sunlight exposure and dietary vitamin D. Supplementation compliance might be improved with larger doses taken less often, but this may increase the potential for side effects. The objective of the present study was to determine whether a weekly or weekly/monthly regimen of vitamin D supplementation is as effective as daily supplementation without increasing the risk of side effects. Participants were forty-eight healthy adults who were randomly assigned for 3 months to placebo or one of three supplementation regimens: 50 μg/d (2000 IU/d, analysed dose 70 μg/d), 250 μg/week (10 000 IU/week, analysed dose 331 μg/week) or 1250 μg/week (50 000 IU/week, analysed dose 1544 μg/week) for 4 weeks and then 1250 μg/month for 2 months. Daily and weekly doses were equally effective at increasing serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D, which was significantly greater than baseline in all the supplemented groups after 30 d of treatment. Subjects in the 1250 μg treatment group, who had a BMI >26 kg/m2, had a steady increase in urinary Ca in the first 3 weeks of supplementation, and, overall, the relative risk of hypercalciuria was higher in the 1250 μg group than in the placebo group (P= 0·01). Although vitamin D supplementation remains a controversial issue, these data document that supplementing with ≤ 250 μg/week ( ≤ 10 000 IU/week) can improve or maintain vitamin D status in healthy populations without the risk of hypercalciuria, but 24 h urinary Ca excretion should be evaluated in healthy persons receiving vitamin D3 supplementation in weekly single doses of 1250 μg (50 000 IU).

The AusD Study: A population-based study of the determinants of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration across a broad latitude range

Observational studies suggest that people with a high serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration may have reduced risk of chronic diseases such as osteoporosis, multiple sclerosis, type 1 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and some cancers. The AusD Study (A Quantitative Assessment of Solar UV Exposure for Vitamin D Synthesis in Australian Adults) was conducted to clarify the relationships between ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure, dietary intake of vitamin D, and serum 25(OH)D concentration among Australian adults residing in Townsville (19.3°S), Brisbane (27.5°S), Canberra (35.3°S), and Hobart (42.8°S). Participants aged 18-75 years were recruited from the Australian Electoral Roll between 2009 and 2010. Measurements were made of height, weight, waist:hip ratio, skin, hair, and eye color, blood pressure, and grip strength. Participants completed a questionnaire on sun exposure and vitamin D intake, together with 10 days of personal UV dosimetry and an associated sun-exposure and physical-activity diary that was temporally linked to a blood test for measurement of 25(OH)D concentration. Ambient solar UV radiation was also monitored at all study sites. We collected comprehensive, high-quality data from 1,002 participants (459 males, 543 females) assessed simultaneously across a range of latitudes and through all seasons. Here we describe the scientific and methodological issues considered in designing the AusD Study.

Development of an ultra-thin fibroin membrane for RPE cell transplantation

Purpose: One of the challenges associated with cell-based therapies for repairing the retina is the development of suitable materials on which to grow and transplant retinal cells. Using the ARPE-19 cell line, we have previously demonstrated the feasibility of growing RPE-derived cells on membranes prepared from the silk protein fibroin. The present study was aimed at developing a porous, ultra-thin fibroin membrane that might better support development of apical-basal polarity in culture, and to extend this work to primary cultures of human RPE cells. Methods: Ultra-thin fibroin membranes were prepared using a highly polished casting table coated with Topas® (a cyclic olefin copolymer) and a 1:0.03 aqueous solution of fibroin and PEO (Mv 900 000 g/mol). Following drying, the membranes were water annealed to make them water-stable, washed in water to remove PEO, sterilised by treatment with 95% ethanol, and washed extensively in saline. Primary cultures containing human RPE cells were established from donor posterior eye cups and maintained in DMEM/F12 medium supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum and antibiotics. First passage cultures were seeded onto fibroin membranes pre-coated with vitronectin and grown for 6 weeks in medium supplemented with 1% serum. Comparative cultures were established on porous 1.0 µm pore PET membrane (Millipore) and using ARPE-19 cells. Results: The fibroin membranes displayed an average thickness of 3 µm and contained numerous dimples/pore-like structures of up to 3-5 µm in diameter. The primary cultures predominantly contained pigmented epithelial cells, but mesenchymal cells (presumed fibroblasts) were also often present. Passaged cultures appeared to attach equally well to either fibroin or PET membranes. Over time cells on either material adopted a more cobblestoned morphology. Conclusions: Progress has been made towards developing a porous ultra-thin fibroin membrane that supports cultivation of RPE cells. Further studies are required to determine the degree of membrane permeability and RPE polarity.

A novel multiplex PCR-RFLP method for simultaneous detection of the MTHFR 677 C > T, eNOS +894 G > T and - eNOS -786 T > C variants among Malaysian Malays

Background Hyperhomocysteinemia as a consequence of the MTHFR 677 C > T variant is associated with cardiovascular disease and stroke. Another factor that can potentially contribute to these disorders is a depleted nitric oxide level, which can be due to the presence of eNOS +894 G���> T and eNOS −786 T > C variants that make an individual more susceptible to endothelial dysfunction. A number of genotyping methods have been developed to investigate these variants. However, simultaneous detection methods using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) analysis are still lacking. In this study, a novel multiplex PCR-RFLP method for the simultaneous detection of MTHFR 677 C > T and eNOS +894 G���> T and eNOS −786 T > C variants was developed. A total of 114 healthy Malay subjects were recruited. The MTHFR 677 C > T and eNOS +894 G���> T and eNOS −786 T > C variants were genotyped using the novel multiplex PCR-RFLP and confirmed by DNA sequencing as well as snpBLAST. Allele frequencies of MTHFR 677 C > T and eNOS +894 G���> T and eNOS −786 T > C were calculated using the Hardy Weinberg equation. Methods The 114 healthy volunteers were recruited for this study, and their DNA was extracted. Primer pair was designed using Primer 3 Software version 0.4.0 and validated against the BLAST database. The primer specificity, functionality and annealing temperature were tested using uniplex PCR methods that were later combined into a single multiplex PCR. Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (RFLP) was performed in three separate tubes followed by agarose gel electrophoresis. PCR product residual was purified and sent for DNA sequencing. Results The allele frequencies for MTHFR 677 C > T were 0.89 (C allele) and 0.11 (T allele); for eNOS +894 G���> T, the allele frequencies were 0.58 (G allele) and 0.43 (T allele); and for eNOS −786 T > C, the allele frequencies were 0.87 (T allele) and 0.13 (C allele). Conclusions Our PCR-RFLP method is a simple, cost-effective and time-saving method. It can be used to successfully genotype subjects for the MTHFR 677 C > T and eNOS +894 G���> T and eNOS −786 T > C variants simultaneously with 100% concordance from DNA sequencing data. This method can be routinely used for rapid investigation of the MTHFR 677 C > T and eNOS +894 G���> T and eNOS −786 T > C variants.

Investigation of the 1758G>C and 2880A>G variants within the NCOA3 gene in a breast cancer affected Australian population

NCOA3 is a known low to moderate-risk breast cancer susceptibility gene, amplified in 5–10% and over expressed in about 60% of breast tumours. Additionally, this over expression is associated with Tamoxifen resistance and poor prognosis. Previously, two variants of NCOA3, 1758G > C and 2880A > G have been associated with breast cancer in two independent populations. Here we assessed the influence of the two NCOA3 variants on breast cancer risk by genotyping an Australian case–control study population. 172 cases and 178 controls were successfully genotyped for the 1758G > C variant and 186 cases and 182 controls were successfully genotyped for the 2880A > G variant using high-resolution melt analysis (HRM). The genotypes of the 1758G > C variant were validated by sequencing. χ2 tests were performed to determine if significant differences exist in the genotype and allele frequencies between the cases and controls. χ2 analysis returned no statistically significant difference (p > 0.05) for genotype frequencies between cases and controls for 1758G > C (χ2 = 0.97, p = 0.6158) or 2880A > G (χ2 = 2.09, p = 0.3516). Similarly, no statistical difference was observed for allele frequencies for 1758G > C (χ2 = 0.07, p = 0.7867) or 2880A > G (χ2 = 0.04, p = 0.8365). Haplotype analysis of the two SNPs also showed no difference between the cases and the controls (p = 0.9585). Our findings in an Australian Caucasian population composed of breast cancer sufferers and an age matched control population did not support the findings of previous studies demonstrating that these markers play a significant role in breast cancer susceptibility. Here, no significant difference was detected between breast cancer patients and healthy matched controls by either the genotype or allele frequencies for the investigated variants (all p ≥ 0.05). While an association of the two variants and breast cancer was not detected in our case–control study population, exploring these variants in a larger population of the same kind may obtain results in concordance with previous studies. Given the importance of NCOA3 and its involvement in biological processes involved in breast cancer and the possible implications variants of the gene could have on the response to Tamoxifen therapy, NCOA3 remains a candidate for further investigations.

Quantitative and qualitative changes in gene expression patterns characterize the activity of plaques in multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex autoimmune disorder of the CNS with both genetic and environmental contributing factors. Clinical symptoms are broadly characterized by initial onset, and progressive debilitating neurological impairment. In this study, RNA from MS chronic active and MS acute lesions was extracted, and compared with patient matched normal white matter by fluorescent cDNA microarray hybridization analysis. This resulted in the identification of 139 genes that were differentially regulated in MS plaque tissue compared to normal tissue. Of these, 69 genes showed a common pattern of expression in the chronic active and acute plaque tissues investigated (Pvalue<0.0001, ρ=0.73, by Spearman's ρ analysis); while 70 transcripts were uniquely differentially expressed (≥1.5-fold) in either acute or chronic active tissues. These results included known markers of MS such as the myelin basic protein (MBP) and glutathione S-transferase (GST) M1, nerve growth factors, such as nerve injury-induced protein 1 (NINJ1), X-ray and excision DNA repair factors (XRCC9 and ERCC5) and X-linked genes such as the ribosomal protein, RPS4X. Primers were then designed for seven array-selected genes, including transferrin (TF), superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1), glutathione peroxidase 1 (GPX1), GSTP1, crystallin, alpha-B (CRYAB), phosphomannomutase 1 (PMM1) and tubulin β-5 (TBB5), and real time quantitative (Q)-PCR analysis was performed. The results of comparative Q-PCR analysis correlated significantly with those obtained by array analysis (r=0.75, Pvalue<0.01, by Pearson's bivariate correlation). Both chronic active and acute plaques shared the majority of factors identified suggesting that quantitative, rather than gross qualitative differences in gene expression pattern may define the progression from acute to chronic active plaques in MS.

G-protein β3 subunit gene (GNB3) variant in causation of essential hypertension

Essential hypertensives display enhanced signal transduction through pertussis toxin-sensitive G proteins. The T allele of a C825T variant in exon 10 of the G protein β3 subunit gene (GNB3) induces formation of a splice variant (G��3-s) with enhanced activity. The T allele of GNB3 was shown recently to be associated with hypertension in unselected German patients (frequency=0.31 versus 0.25 in control). To confirm and extend this finding in a different setting, we performed an association study in Australian white hypertensives. This involved an extensively examined cohort of 110 hypertensives, each of whom were the offspring of 2 hypertensive parents, and 189 normotensives whose parents were both normotensive beyond age 50 years. Genotyping was performed by polymerase chain reaction and digestion with BseDI, which either cut (C allele) or did not cut (T allele) the 268-bp polymerase chain reaction product. T allele frequency in the hypertensive group was 0.43 compared with 0.25 in the normotensive group (χ2=22; P=0.00002; odds ratio=2.3; 95% CI=1.7 to 3.3). The T allele tracked with higher pretreatment blood pressure: diastolic=105±7, 109±16, and 128±28 mm Hg (mean±SD) for CC, CT, and 7T, respectively (P=0.001 by 1-way ANOVA). Blood pressures were higher in female hypertensives with a T allele (P=0.006 for systolic and 0.0003 for diastolic by ANOVA) than they were in male hypertensives. In conclusion, the present study of a group with strong family history supports a role for a genetically determined, physiologically active splice variant of the G protein β3 subunit gene in the causation of essential hypertension.

Genome-wide association study identifies a possible susceptibility locus for endometrial cancer

Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 100 genetic loci for various cancers. However, only one is for endometrial cancer. Methods: We conducted a three-stage GWAS including 8,492 endometrial cancer cases and 16,596 controls. After analyzing 585,963 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in 832 cases and 2,682 controls (stage I) from the Shanghai Endometrial Cancer Genetics Study, we selected the top 106 SNPs for in silico replication among 1,265 cases and 5,190 controls from the Australian/British Endometrial Cancer GWAS (stage II). Nine SNPs showed results consistent in direction with stage I with P < 0.1. These nine SNPs were investigated among 459 cases and 558 controls (stage IIIa) and six SNPs showed a direction of association consistent with stages I and II. These six SNPs, plus two additional SNPs selected on the basis of linkage disequilibrium and P values in stage II, were investigated among 5,936 cases and 8,166 controls from an additional 11 studies (stage IIIb). Results: SNP rs1202524, near the CAPN9 gene on chromosome 1q42.2, showed a consistent association with endometrial cancer risk across all three stages, with ORs of 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03–1.16] for the A/G genotype and 1.17 (95% CI, 1.05–1.30) for the G/G genotype (P = 1.6 × 10−4 in combined analyses of all samples). The association was stronger when limited to the endometrioid subtype, with ORs (95% CI) of 1.11 (1.04–1.18) and 1.21 (1.08–1.35), respectively (P = 2.4 × 10−5). Conclusions: Chromosome 1q42.2 may host an endometrial cancer susceptibility locus. Impact: This study identified a potential genetic locus for endometrial cancer risk