Novelty-based visual obstacle detection in agriculture

This paper describes a novel obstacle detection system for autonomous robots in agricultural field environments that uses a novelty detector to inform stereo matching. Stereo vision alone erroneously detects obstacles in environments with ambiguous appearance and ground plane such as in broad-acre crop fields with harvested crop residue. The novelty detector estimates the probability density in image descriptor space and incorporates image-space positional understanding to identify potential regions for obstacle detection using dense stereo matching. The results demonstrate that the system is able to detect obstacles typical to a farm at day and night. This system was successfully used as the sole means of obstacle detection for an autonomous robot performing a long term two hour coverage task travelling 8.5 km.

Selecting volatility forecasting models for portfolio allocation purposes

Techniques for evaluating and selecting multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet understood as well as their univariate counterparts. This paper considers the ability of different loss functions to discriminate between a set of competing forecasting models which are subsequently applied in a portfolio allocation context. It is found that a likelihood-based loss function outperforms its competitors, including those based on the given portfolio application. This result indicates that considering the particular application of forecasts is not necessarily the most effective basis on which to select models.

Modeling nitrous oxide emissions from irrigated agriculture : testing DayCent with high-frequency measurements

A unique high temporal frequency dataset from an irrigated cotton-wheat rotation was used to test the agroecosystem model DayCent to simulate daily N2O emissions from sub-tropical vertisols under different irrigation intensities. DayCent was able to simulate the effect of different irrigation intensities on N2O fluxes and yield, although it tended to overestimate seasonal fluxes during the cotton season. DayCent accurately predicted soil moisture dynamics and the timing and magnitude of high fluxes associated with fertilizer additions and irrigation events. At the daily scale we found a good correlation of predicted vs. measured N2O fluxes (r2 = 0.52), confirming that DayCent can be used to test agricultural practices for mitigating N2O emission from irrigated cropping systems. A 25 year scenario analysis indicated that N2O losses from irrigated cotton-wheat rotations on black vertisols in Australia can be substantially reduced by an optimized fertilizer and irrigation management system (i.e. frequent irrigation, avoidance of excessive fertiliser application), while sustaining maximum yield potentials.

Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Vision based guidance for robot navigation in agriculture

This paper describes a novel vision based texture tracking method to guide autonomous vehicles in agricultural fields where the crop rows are challenging to detect. Existing methods require sufficient visual difference between the crop and soil for segmentation, or explicit knowledge of the structure of the crop rows. This method works by extracting and tracking the direction and lateral offset of the dominant parallel texture in a simulated overhead view of the scene and hence abstracts away crop-specific details such as colour, spacing and periodicity. The results demonstrate that the method is able to track crop rows across fields with extremely varied appearance during day and night. We demonstrate this method can autonomously guide a robot along the crop rows.

Designing for grassroots food production : an event-based urban agriculture community

As urbanisation of the global population has increased above 50%, growing food in urban spaces increases in importance, as it can contribute to food security, reduce food miles, and improve people’s physical and mental health. Approaching the task of growing food in urban environments is a mixture of residential growers and groups. Permablitz Brisbane is an event-centric grassroots community that organises daylong ‘working bee’ events, drawing on permaculture design principles in the planning and design process. Permablitz Brisbane provides a useful contrast from other location-centric forms of urban agriculture communities (such as city farms or community gardens), as their aim is to help encourage urban residents to grow their own food. We present findings and design implications from a qualitative study with members of this group, using ethnographic methods to engage with and understand how this group operates. Our findings describe four themes that include opportunities, difficulties, and considerations for the creation of interventions by Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) designers.

Subprime agriculture, and Australia?

Today, Australian agriculture is not where we hoped it would be. Despite being highly productive and the nation's only 'strongly competitive industry', it is struggling across the country. There are successes, as there always will be, but the bulk of our food and fibre production is from enterprises with minimal profitability and unstable or unsound finances. A debt-deflation spiral and subprime mortgage crisis are now being fuelled by property fire sales while leading bankers proclaim no problem and governments dance at the edges. However, it is not just the bush that has problems. National economic conditions are deteriorating with per capita incomes falling and real interest rates still high. Well-informed policy strategies and effective responses are needed quickly if Australians are to avoid needless losses of capacity and wealth destruction in the cities and the bush.

A lightweight, modular robotic vehicle for the sustainable intensification of agriculture

This paper describes a lightweight, modular and energy efficient robotic vehicle platform designed for broadacre agriculture - the Small Robotic Farm Vehicle (SRFV). The current trend in farming is towards increasingly large machines that optimise the individual farmer’s productivity. Instead, the SRFV is designed to promote the sustainable intensification of agriculture by allowing farmers to concentrate on more important farm management tasks. The robot has been designed with a user-centred approach which focuses the outcomes of the project on the needs of the key project stakeholders. In this way user and environmental considerations for broadacre farming have informed the vehicle platform configuration, locomotion, power requirements and chassis construction. The resultant design is a lightweight, modular four-wheeled differential steer vehicle incorporating custom twin in-hub electric drives with emergency brakes. The vehicle is designed for a balance between low soil impact, stability, energy efficiency and traction. The paper includes modelling of the robot’s dynamics during an emergency brake in order to determine the potential for tipping. The vehicle is powered by a selection of energy sources including rechargeable lithium batteries and petrol-electric generators.

Developing an epidemic forecasting model for Influenza A in Brisbane, Australia, based on climate and Hong Kong Influenza A surveillance data

Influenza is associated with substantial disease burden [ 1]. Development of a climate-based early warning system for in fluenza epidemics has been recommended given the signi fi - cant association between climate variability and influenza activity [2]. Brisbane is a subtropical city in Australia and offers free in fluenza vaccines to residents aged ≥65 years considering their high risks in developing life-threatening complications, especially for in fluenza A predominant seasons. Hong Kong is an international subtropical city in Eastern Asia and plays a crucial role in global infectious diseases transmission dynamics via the international air transportation network [3, 4]. We hypothesized that Hong Kong in fluenza surveillance data could provide a signal for in fluenza epidemics in Brisbane [ 4]. This study aims to develop an epidemic forecasting model for influenza A in Brisbane elders, by combining climate variability and Hong Kong in fluenza A surveillance data. Weekly numbers of laboratoryconfirmed influenza A positive isolates for people aged ≥65 years from 2004 to 2009 were obtained for Brisbane from Queensland Health, Australia, and for Hong Kong from Queen Mary Hospital (QMH). QMH is the largest public hospital located in Hong Kong Island, and in fluenza surveillance data from this hospital have been demonstrated to be representative for influenza circulation in the entirety of Hong Kong [ 5]. The Brisbane in fluenza A epidemics occurred during July –September, whereas the Hong Kong in fluenza A epidemics occurred during February –March and May –August.

Terra Preta (Agriculture+Art+Algorithm)

Terra Preta is a site-specific bio-energy project which aims to create a synergy between the public and the pre-existing engineered landscape of Freshkills Park on Staten Island, New York. The project challenges traditional paradigms of public space by proposing a dynamic and ever-changing landscape. The initiative allows the publuc to self-organise the landscape and to engage in 'algorithmic processes' of growth, harvest and space creation.

Predictive motion planning for AUVs subject to strong time-varying currents and forecasting uncertainties

This paper presents a novel path planning method for minimizing the energy consumption of an autonomous underwater vehicle subjected to time varying ocean disturbances and forecast model uncertainty. The algorithm determines 4-Dimensional path candidates using Nonlinear Robust Model Predictive Control (NRMPC) and solutions optimised using A*-like algorithms. Vehicle performance limits are incorporated into the algorithm with disturbances represented as spatial and temporally varying ocean currents with a bounded uncertainty in their predictions. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated through simulations using a 4-Dimensional, spatially distributed time-series predictive ocean current model. Results show the combined NRMPC and A* approach is capable of generating energy-efficient paths which are resistant to both dynamic disturbances and ocean model uncertainty.

Growing food in the city: A study across interaction design and urban agriculture

The thesis offers the foundation of a design pattern language for urban gardening, as well as a prototype mobile storytelling platform through which urban gardeners can share gardening experiences. This study examined three urban agriculture communities – a city farm, a permaculture movement, and residential gardeners – in order to better understand some of the challenges in their food growing practices. The city is increasingly being rediscovered by gardeners, food activists, and local governments as an under-utilised opportunity space for land cultivation and local food production, and the findings of this research were analysed with a view to consider interactive technology and design interventions in response.