Water Quality Indices from Unbalanced Spatio-Temporal Monitoring Designs

This chapter investigates a variety of water quality assessment tools for reservoirs with balanced/unbalanced monitoring designs and focuses on providing informative water quality assessments to ensure decision-makers are able to make risk-informed management decisions about reservoir health. In particular, two water quality assessment methods are described: non-compliance (probability of the number of times the indicator exceeds the recommended guideline) and amplitude (degree of departure from the guideline). Strengths and weaknesses of current and alternative water quality methods will be discussed. The proposed methodology is particularly applicable to unbalanced designs with/without missing values and reflects the general conditions and is not swayed too heavily by the occasional extreme value (very high or very low quality). To investigate the issues in greater detail, we use as a case study, a reservoir within South-East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. The purpose here is to obtain an annual score that reflected the overall water quality, temporally, spatially and across water quality indicators for each reservoir.

Bioeconomic modelling and risk assessment of tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia

A bioeconomic model was developed to evaluate the potential performance of brown tiger prawn stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia. This paper presents the framework for the bioeconomic model and risk assessment for all components of a stock enhancement operation, i.e. hatchery, grow-out, releasing, population dynamics, fishery, and monitoring, for a commercial scale enhancement of about 100 metric tonnes, a 25% increase in average annual catch in Exmouth Gulf. The model incorporates uncertainty in estimates of parameters by using a distribution for the parameter over a certain range, based on experiments, published data, or similar studies. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to quantify the effects of these uncertainties on the model-output and on the economic potential of a particular production target. The model incorporates density-dependent effects in the nursery grounds of brown tiger prawns. The results predict that a release of 21 million 1 g prawns would produce an estimated enhanced prawn catch of about 100 t. This scale of enhancement has a 66.5% chance of making a profit. The largest contributor to the overall uncertainty of the enhanced prawn catch was the post-release mortality, followed by the density-dependent mortality caused by released prawns. These two mortality rates are most difficult to estimate in practice and are much under-researched in stock enhancement.

Measures of nutrient processes as indicators of stream ecosystem health

To better understand how freshwater ecosystems respond to changes in catchment land-use, it is important to develop measures of ecological health that include aspects of both ecosystem structure and function. This study investigated measures of nutrient processes as potential indicators of stream ecosystem health across a land-use gradient from relatively undisturbed to highly modified. A total of seven indicators (potential denitrification; an index of denitrification potential relative to sediment organic matter; benthic algal growth on artificial substrates amended with (a) N only, (b) P only, and (c) N and P; and δ15N of aquatic plants and benthic sediment) were measured at 53 streams in southeast Queensland, Australia. The indicators were evaluated by their response to a defined gradient of agricultural land-use disturbance as well as practical aspects of using the indicators as part of a monitoring program. Regression models based on descriptors of the disturbance gradient explained a large proportion of the variation in six of the seven indicators. Denitrification index, algal growth in N amended substrate, and δ15N of aquatic plants demonstrated the best regression. However, the δ15N value of benthic sediment was found to be the best indicator overall for incorporation into a monitoring program, as samples were relatively easy to collect and process, and were successfully collected at more than 90% of the study sites.

Study Protocol - Alcohol Management Plans (AMPs) in remote indigenous communities in Queensland: their impacts on injury, violence, health and social indicators and their cost-effectiveness

Background In 2002/03 the Queensland Government responded to high rates of alcohol-related harm in discrete Indigenous communities by implementing alcohol management plans (AMPs), designed to include supply and harm reduction and treatment measures. Tighter alcohol supply and carriage restrictions followed in 2008 following indications of reductions in violence and injury. Despite the plans being in place for over a decade, no comprehensive independent review has assessed to what level the designed aims were achieved and what effect the plans have had on Indigenous community residents and service providers. This study will describe the long-term impacts on important health, economic and social outcomes of Queensland’s AMPs. Methods/Design The project has two main studies, 1) outcome evaluation using de-identified epidemiological data on injury, violence and other health and social indicators for across Queensland, including de-identified databases compiled from relevant routinely-available administrative data sets, and 2) a process evaluation to map the nature, timing and content of intervention components targeting alcohol. Process evaluation will also be used to assess the fidelity with which the designed intervention components have been implemented, their uptake and community responses to them and their perceived impacts on alcohol supply and consumption, injury, violence and community health. Interviews and focus groups with Indigenous residents and service providers will be used. The study will be conducted in all 24 of Queensland’s Indigenous communities affected by alcohol management plans. Discussion This evaluation will report on the impacts of the original aims for AMPs, what impact they have had on Indigenous residents and service providers. A central outcome will be the establishment of relevant databases describing the parameters of the changes seen. This will permit comprehensive and rigorous surveillance systems to be put in place and provided to communities empowering them with the best credible evidence to judge future policy and program requirements for themselves. The project will inform impending alcohol policy and program adjustments in Queensland and other Australian jurisdictions. The project has been approved by the James Cook University Human Research Ethics Committee (approval number H4967 & H5241).

Conceptualising, evaluating and reporting social resilience in vulnerable regional and remote communities facing climate change in tropical Queensland : marine and tropical sciences research facility transition project final report

Regional and remote communities in tropical Queensland are among Australia’s most vulnerable in the face of climate change. At the same time, these socially and economically vulnerable regions house some of Australia’s most significant biodiversity values. Past approaches to terrestrial biodiversity management have focused on tackling biophysical interventions through the use of biophysical knowledge. An equally important focus should be placed on building regional-scale community resilience if some of the worst biodiversity impacts of climate change are to be avoided or mitigated. Despite its critical need, more systemic or holistic approaches to natural resource management have been rarely trialed and tested in a structured way. Currently, most strategic interventions in improving regional community resilience are ad hoc, not theory-based and short term. Past planning approaches have not been durable, nor have they been well informed by clear indicators. Research into indicators for community resilience has been poorly integrated within adaptive planning and management cycles. This project has aimed to resolve this problem by: * Reviewing the community and social resilience and adaptive planning literature to reconceptualise an improved framework for applying community resilience concepts; * Harvesting and extending work undertaken in MTSRF Phase 1 to identifying the learnings emerging from past MTSRF research; * Distilling these findings to identify new theoretical and practical approaches to the application of community resilience in natural resource use and management; * Reconsidering the potential interplay between a region’s biophysical and social planning processes, with a focus on exploring spatial tools to communicate climate change risk and its consequent environmental, economic and social impacts, and; * Trialling new approaches to indicator development and adaptive planning to improve community resilience, using a sub-regional pilot in the Wet Tropics. In doing so, we also looked at ways to improve the use and application of relevant spatial information. Our theoretical review drew upon the community development, psychology and emergency management literature to better frame the concept of community resilience relative to aligned concepts of social resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Firstly, we consider community resilience as a concept that can be considered at a range of scales (e.g. regional, locality, communities of interest, etc.). We also consider that overall resilience at higher scales will be influenced by resilience levels at lesser scales (inclusive of the resilience of constituent institutions, families and individuals). We illustrate that, at any scale, resilience and vulnerability are not necessarily polar opposites, and that some understanding of vulnerability is important in determining resilience. We position social resilience (a concept focused on the social characteristics of communities and individuals) as an important attribute of community resilience, but one that needs to be considered alongside economic, natural resource, capacity-based and governance attributes. The findings from the review of theory and MTSRF Phase 1 projects were synthesized and refined by the wider project team. Five predominant themes were distilled from this literature, research review and an expert analysis. They include the findings that: 1. Indicators have most value within an integrated and adaptive planning context, requiring an active co-research relationship between community resilience planners, managers and researchers if real change is to be secured; 2. Indicators of community resilience form the basis for planning for social assets and the resilience of social assets is directly related the longer term resilience of natural assets. This encourages and indeed requires the explicit development and integration of social planning within a broader natural resource planning and management framework; 3. Past indicator research and application has not provided a broad picture of the key attributes of community resilience and there have been many attempts to elicit lists of “perfect” indicators that may never be useful within the time and resource limitations of real world regional planning and management. We consider that modeling resilience for proactive planning and prediction purposes requires the consideration of simple but integrated clusters of attributes; 4. Depending on time and resources available for planning and management, the combined use of well suited indicators and/or other lesser “lines of evidence” is more flexible than the pursuit of perfect indicators, and that; 5. Index-based, collaborative and participatory approaches need to be applied to the development, refinement and reporting of indicators over longer time frames. We trialed the practical application of these concepts via the establishment of a collaborative regional alliance of planners and managers involved in the development of climate change adaptation strategies across tropical Queensland (the Gulf, Wet Tropics, Cape York and Torres Strait sub-regions). A focus on the Wet Tropics as a pilot sub-region enabled other Far North Queensland sub-region’s to participate and explore the potential extension of this approach. The pilot activities included: * Further exploring ways to innovatively communicate the region’s likely climate change scenarios and possible environmental, economic and social impacts. We particularly looked at using spatial tools to overlay climate change risks to geographic communities and social vulnerabilities within those communities; * Developing a cohesive first pass of a State of the Region-style approach to reporting community resilience, inclusive of regional economic viability, community vitality, capacitybased and governance attributes. This framework integrated a literature review, expert (academic and community) and alliance-based contributions; and * Early consideration of critical strategies that need to be included in unfolding regional planning activities with Far North Queensland. The pilot assessment finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations in the Wet Tropics are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change and may require substantial support to adapt and become more resilient. This assessment finds that under current conditions (i.e. if significant adaptation actions are not taken) the Wet Tropics as a whole may be seriously impacted by the most significant features of climate change and extreme climatic events. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Of the four attributes we consider important to understanding community resilience, the Wet Tropics region is particularly vulnerable in two areas; specifically its economic vitality and knowledge, aspirations and capacity. The third and fourth attributes, community vitality and institutional governance are relatively resilient but are vulnerable in some key respects. In regard to all four of these attributes, however, there is some emerging capacity to manage the possible shocks that may be associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events. This capacity needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. There is an immediate need to build individual, household, community and sectoral resilience across all four attribute groups to enable populations and communities in the Wet Tropics region to adapt in the face of climate change. Preliminary strategies of importance to improve regional community resilience have been identified. These emerging strategies also have been integrated into the emerging Regional Development Australia Roadmap, and this will ensure that effective implementation will be progressed and coordinated. They will also inform emerging strategy development to secure implementation of the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan. Of most significance in our view, this project has taken a co-research approach from the outset with explicit and direct importance and influence within the region’s formal planning and management arrangements. As such, the research: * Now forms the foundations of the first attempt at “Social Asset” planning within the Wet Tropics Regional NRM Plan review; * Is assisting Local government at regional scale to consider aspects of climate change adaptation in emerging planning scheme/community planning processes; * Has partnered the State government (via the Department of Infrastructure and Planning and Regional Managers Coordination Network Chair) in progressing the Climate Change adaptation agenda set down within the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan; * Is informing new approaches to report on community resilience within the GBRMPA Outlook reporting framework; and * Now forms the foundation for the region’s wider climate change adaptation priorities in the Regional Roadmap developed by Regional Development Australia. Through the auspices of Regional Development Australia, the outcomes of the research will now inform emerging negotiations concerning a wider package of climate change adaptation priorities with State and Federal governments. Next stage research priorities are also being developed to enable an ongoing alliance between researchers and the region’s climate change response.

Mapping eQTLs in the Norfolk Island genetic isolate identifies candidate genes for CVD risk traits

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) affects millions of people worldwide and is influenced by numerous factors, including lifestyle and genetics. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) influence gene expression and are good candidates for CVD risk. Founder-effect pedigrees can provide additional power to map genes associated with disease risk. Therefore, we identified eQTLs in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island (NI) and tested for associations between these and CVD risk factors. We measured genome-wide transcript levels of blood lymphocytes in 330 individuals and used pedigree-based heritability analysis to identify heritable transcripts. eQTLs were identified by genome-wide association testing of these transcripts. Testing for association between CVD risk factors (i.e., blood lipids, blood pressure, and body fat indices) and eQTLs revealed 1,712 heritable transcripts (p < 0.05) with heritability values ranging from 0.18 to 0.84. From these, we identified 200 cis-acting and 70 trans-acting eQTLs (p < 1.84 × 10(-7)) An eQTL-centric analysis of CVD risk traits revealed multiple associations, including 12 previously associated with CVD-related traits. Trait versus eQTL regression modeling identified four CVD risk candidates (NAAA, PAPSS1, NME1, and PRDX1), all of which have known biological roles in disease. In addition, we implicated several genes previously associated with CVD risk traits, including MTHFR and FN3KRP. We have successfully identified a panel of eQTLs in the NI pedigree and used this to implicate several genes in CVD risk. Future studies are required for further assessing the functional importance of these eQTLs and whether the findings here also relate to outbred populations.

Root caries patterns and risk factors of middle-aged and elderly people in China

The objectives of this study were to describe root caries patterns of Chinese adults and to analyze the effect of selected demographic and socioeconomic factors on these patterns. A total sample of 1080 residents aged 35-44-years-old and 1080 residents aged 65-74-years-old from three urban and three rural survey sites in Hubei Province participated in both an oral health interview and a clinical oral health examination. Root surface caries prevalence rates were 13.1% in the middle-aged group and 43.9% in the elderly group. The mean number of teeth affected by caries in the middle-aged group was reported at 0.21 and 1.0 in the elderly group. Mean Root Caries Index (RCI) scores of the middle-aged were reported at 6.29 and elderly subjects were reported at 11.95. Elderly people living in rural areas reported a higher RCI score (13.24) than those living in urban areas (10.70). A significantly higher frequency of root surface caries was observed in elderly participants (P < 0.001, OR = 3.80) and ethnic minorities (P < 0.001, OR = 1.93). In addition, smokers, nontea drinkers, and those with an annual household income of 10,000 yuan or less tended to have higher caries prevalence. RCI figures for the different tooth types ranged from 1% to 16%, indicating a wide variation in attack rates. In conclusion, our study suggests that root surface caries occurrence is high among the Chinese adult population, especially older adults. With an increasing number of retained teeth in both middle-aged and elderly people, root caries is a growing disease in the People's Republic of China which deserves more attention in future research.

Molecular profiling of human mammary gland links breast cancer risk to a p27(+) cell population with progenitor characteristics

Early full-term pregnancy is one of the most effective natural protections against breast cancer. To investigate this effect, we have characterized the global gene expression and epigenetic profiles of multiple cell types from normal breast tissue of nulliparous and parous women and carriers of BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. We found significant differences in CD44+ progenitor cells, where the levels of many stem cell-related genes and pathways, including the cell-cycle regulator p27, are lower in parous women without BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations. We also noted a significant reduction in the frequency of CD44+p27+ cells in parous women and showed, using explant cultures, that parity-related signaling pathways play a role in regulating the number of p27+ cells and their proliferation. Our results suggest that pathways controlling p27+ mammary epithelial cells and the numbers of these cells relate to breast cancer risk and can be explored for cancer risk assessment and prevention.

Aligning off-balance sheet risk, on-balance sheet risk and audit fees: a PLS path modelling analysis

This study focuses on using the partial least squares (PLS) path modelling technique in archival auditing research by replicating the data and research questions from prior bank audit fee studies. PLS path modelling allows for inter-correlations among audit fee determinants by establishing latent constructs and multiple relationship paths in one simultaneous PLS path model. Endogeneity concerns about auditor choice can also be addressed with PLS path modelling. With a sample of US bank holding companies for the period 2003-2009, we examine the associations among on-balance sheet financial risks, off-balance sheet risks and audit fees, and also address the pervasive client size effect, and the effect of the self-selection of auditors. The results endorse the dominating effect of size on audit fees, both directly and indirectly via its impacts on other audit fee determinants. By simultaneously considering the self-selection of auditors, we still find audit fee premiums on Big N auditors, which is the second important factor on audit fee determination. On-balance-sheet financial risk measures in terms of capital adequacy, loan composition, earnings and asset quality performance have positive impacts on audit fees. After allowing for the positive influence of on-balance sheet financial risks and entity size on off-balance sheet risk, the off-balance sheet risk measure, SECRISK, is still positively associated with bank audit fees, both before and after the onset of the financial crisis. The consistent results from this study compared with prior literature provide supporting evidence and enhance confidence on the application of this new research technique in archival accounting studies.

Aligning off-balance sheet risk, on-balance sheet risk and audit fees: a PLS path modelling analysis

This study focuses on using the partial least squares (PLS) path modelling methodology in archival auditing research by replicating the data and research questions from prior bank audit fee studies. PLS path modelling allows for inter-correlations among audit fee determinants by establishing latent constructs and multiple relationship paths in one simultaneous PLS path model. Endogeneity concerns about auditor choice can also be addressed with PLS path modelling. With a sample of US bank holding companies for the period 2003-2009, we examine the associations among on-balance sheet financial risks, off-balance sheet risks and audit fees, and also address the pervasive client size effect, and the effect of the self-selection of auditors. The results endorse the dominating effect of size on audit fees, both directly and indirectly via its impacts on other audit fee determinants. By simultaneously considering the self-selection of auditors, we still find audit fee premiums on Big N auditors, which is the second important factor on audit fee determination. On-balance-sheet financial risk measures in terms of capital adequacy, loan composition, earnings and asset quality performance have positive impacts on audit fees. After allowing for the positive influence of on-balance sheet financial risks and entity size on off-balance sheet risk, the off-balance sheet risk measure, SECRISK, is still positively associated with bank audit fees, both before and after the onset of the financial crisis. The consistent results from this study compared with prior literature provide supporting evidence and enhance confidence on the application of this new research technique in archival accounting studies.

Climate variability, climate change and land degradation

Effective response by government and individuals to the risk of land degradation requires an understanding of regional climate variations and the impacts of climate and management on condition and productivity of land and vegetation resources. Analysis of past land degradation and climate variability provides some understanding of vulnerability to current and future climate changes and the information needs for more sustainable management. We describe experience in providing climate risk assessment information for managing for the risk of land degradation in north-eastern Australian arid and semi-arid regions used for extensive grazing. However, we note that information based on historical climate variability, which has been relied on in the past, will now also have to factor in the influence of human-induced climate change. Examples illustrate trends in climate for Australia over the past decade and the impacts on indicators of resource condition. The analysis highlights the benefits of insights into past trends and variability in rainfall and other climate variables based on extended historic databases. This understanding in turn supports more reliable regional climate projections and decision support information for governments and land managers to better manage the risk of land degradation now and in the future.

Herpes simplex 2 risk among women in a polygynous setting in rural West Africa

OBJECTIVES: To determine risk factors for herpes simplex 2 (HSV2) infection in women in a polygynous rural Gambian population. METHODS: Data from women who participated in a cross-sectional survey of reproductive health were matched to their own and, for women who had been or were married (ever-married), their spouses' data collected in a cross-sectional survey of fertility interests, including information on marital histories. RESULTS: Data were available on 150 never-married and 525 ever-married women. HSV2 prevalence was 16% amongst never-married women and 36% amongst ever-married women. For ever-married women, their own personal characteristics (age, ethnicity and genital cutting status) and events from their husbands' marriage history were important determinants of HSV2 infection. Women whose husbands married for the first time over age 35 were at greater risk than women whose husbands married by age 24 [odds ratio (OR) 2.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-6.10]. Women whose husband reported interest in a new marriage were more likely to be HSV2 positive (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.18-3.09). Women whose husbands were currently monogamous but had had previous marriages (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.30-5.88) and women in currently polygynous marriages (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.66-5.01) were three times as likely to be HSV2 positive as women who were their husband's only wife ever. CONCLUSION: Much transmission of HSV2 in this setting occurs within marriage where opportunity for personal protection is limited. High levels of transmission within marriage may undermine the impact of sexual behaviour change programmes aiming to reduce HSV2 and HIV incidence and complicate their evaluation.

A comparison of factors influencing perceived risk by French and Australian cyclists and drivers

Differences in the levels of risk perceived by cyclists and car drivers may contribute to the dangers in their interactions. Levels of perceived risk have been shown to vary according to personal and environmental factors and between countries. Cycling rates in France are higher than in Australia, particularly among women. This study investigated whether cultural differences between France and Australia are reflected in perceived risks for experienced adult cyclists and drivers in the two countries. In online surveys, regular cyclists (France 336, Australia 444) and drivers (France 92, Australia 151) were asked to rate the level of risk in six situations: failure to yield; going through a red light; not signalling when turning; swerving; tail-gating; and not checking traffic. The effects of type of interacting vehicle and participant type on perceived risk were similar in France and Australia. However, the influence of responsibility for the risky behaviour differed according to participant type, type of situation and nationality. When the bicycle rider committed the road rule violation, Australian cyclists and drivers gave higher risk ratings than French cyclists and drivers. In both countries, cyclists rated themselves significantly higher than drivers on the perceived control and overconfidence subscales of the perceived skill measure. The French cyclists rated themselves higher than Australian cyclists on these scales, which could be responsible for overall lower perceived risk levels when interacting with a bike. Australian cyclists rated themselves significantly lower than drivers on the incompetence subscale but French cyclists rated themselves higher than drivers. In both countries incompetence scores were positively related to levels of perceived risk. Weekly time was associated with perceived risk in Australia but not in France. Frequency of traffic violations was not associated with perceived risk in either country. In conclusion, levels of perceived risk differed between drivers and cyclists in both countries and were influenced by type of interacting vehicle, experience and perceived skill. However, some differences between the results from the two countries merit further investigation to shed light on potential improvements in safety and cycling participation.

The influence of atmospheric conditions on the leakage current of ceramic insulators on the Colombian Caribbean coast

The contamination of electrical insulators is one of the major contributors to the risk of operation outages in electrical substations, especially in coastal zones with high salinity levels and atmospheric pollution. By using the measurement of leakage-currents, which is one of the main indicators of contamination in insulators, this work seeks to the determine the correlation with climatic variables, such as ambient temperature, relative humidity, solar irradiance, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed and direction. The results obtained provide an input to the behaviour of the leakage current under atmospheric conditions that are particular to the Caribbean coast of Colombia. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients and principal component analysis are utilised to determine the significant relationships among the different variables under consideration. The necessary information for the study was obtained via historical databases of both atmospheric variables and the leakage current measured in over a period of one year in a 220-kV potential transformer insulator. We identified the influencing factors of temperature, humidity, radiation, wind speed and direction on the magnitude of the leakage current as the most relevant.

Public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation: A choice experiment using ecosystem services indicators

Potential conflicts exist between biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation as trade-offs in multiple-use land management. This study aims to evaluate public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation policy considering respondents’ uncertainty on their choice. We conducted a choice experiment using land-use scenarios in the rural Kushiro watershed in northern Japan. The results showed that the public strongly wish to avoid the extinction of endangered species in preference to climate-change mitigation in the form of carbon sequestration by increasing the area of managed forest. Knowledge of the site and the respondents’ awareness of the personal benefits associated with supporting and regulating services had a positive effect on their preference for conservation plans. Thus, decision-makers should be careful about how they provide ecological information for informed choices concerning ecosystem services tradeoffs. Suggesting targets with explicit indicators will affect public preferences, as well as the willingness of the public to pay for such measures. Furthermore, the elicited-choice probabilities approach is useful for revealing the distribution of relative preferences for incomplete scenarios, thus verifying the effectiveness of indicators introduced in the experiment.