Improving accuracy and intelligibility of decisions

Intelligible and accurate risk-based decision-making requires a complex balance of information from different sources, appropriate statistical analysis of this information and consequent intelligent inference and decisions made on the basis of these analyses. Importantly, this requires an explicit acknowledgement of uncertainty in the inputs and outputs of the statistical model. The aim of this paper is to progress a discussion of these issues in the context of several motivating problems related to the wider scope of agricultural production. These problems include biosecurity surveillance design, pest incursion, environmental monitoring and import risk assessment. The information to be integrated includes observational and experimental data, remotely sensed data and expert information. We describe our efforts in addressing these problems using Bayesian models and Bayesian networks. These approaches provide a coherent and transparent framework for modelling complex systems, combining the different information sources, and allowing for uncertainty in inputs and outputs. While the theory underlying Bayesian modelling has a long and well established history, its application is only now becoming more possible for complex problems, due to increased availability of methodological and computational tools. Of course, there are still hurdles and constraints, which we also address through sharing our endeavours and experiences.

The effects of pore architecture in silk fibroin scaffolds on the growth and differentiation of BMP7-expressing mesenchymal stem cells

Pore architecture of scaffolds is known to play a critical role in tissue engineering as it provides the vital framework for the seeded cells to organize into a functioning tissue. In this report, we investigated the effects of different concentration on silk fibroin protein 3D scaffold pore microstructure. Four pore size ranges of silk fibroin scaffolds were made by freeze-dry technique, with the pore sizes ranging from 50 to 300 µm. The pore size of the scaffold decreases as the concentration increases. Human mesenchymal stem cells were in vitro cultured in these scaffolds. After BMP7 gene transferred, DNA assay, ALP assay, hematoxylin–eosin staining, alizarin red staining and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction were performed to analyze the effect of the pore size on cell growth, differentiation and the secretion of extracellular matrix (ECM). Cell morphology in these 3D scaffolds was investigated by confocal microscopy. This study indicates mesenchymal stem cells prefer the group of scaffolds with pore size between 100 and 300 µm for better proliferation and ECM production

Development and validation of a pregnancy symptoms inventory

BACKGROUND. Physical symptoms are common in pregnancy and are predominantly associated with normal physiological changes. These symptoms have a social and economic cost, leading to absenteeism from work and additional medical interventions. There is currently no simple method for identifying common pregnancy related problems in the antenatal period. A validated tool, for use by pregnancy care providers would be useful. AIM: The aim of the project was to develop and validate a Pregnancy Symptoms Inventory for use by healthcare professionals (HCPs). METHODS: A list of symptoms was generated via expert consultation with midwives and obstetrician gynaecologists. Focus groups were conducted with pregnant women in their first, second or third trimester. The inventory was then tested for face validity and piloted for readability and comprehension. For test-re-test reliability, it was administered to the same women 2 to 3 days apart. Finally, outpatient midwives trialled the inventory for 1 month and rated its usefulness on a 10cm visual analogue scale (VAS). The number of referrals to other health care professionals was recorded during this month. RESULTS: Expert consultation and focus group discussions led to the generation of a 41-item inventory. Following face validity and readability testing, several items were modified. Individual item test re-test reliability was between .51 to 1 with the majority (34 items) scoring .0.70. During the testing phase, 211 surveys were collected in the 1 month trial. Tiredness (45.5%), poor sleep (27.5%) back pain (19.5%) and nausea (12.6%) were experienced often. Among the women surveyed, 16.2% claimed to sometimes or often be incontinent. Referrals to the incontinence nurse increased > 8 fold during the study period. The median rating by midwives of the ‘usefulness’ of the inventory was 8.4 (range 0.9 to 10). CONCLUSIONS: The Pregnancy Symptoms Inventory (PSI) was well accepted by women in the 1 month trial and may be a useful tool for pregnancy care providers and aids clinicians in early detection and subsequent treatment of symptoms. It shows promise for use in the research community for assessing the impact of lifestyle intervention in pregnancy.

Nascent venture performance : linking novelty of venture ideas and commitment of firm founders as predictors

The individual-opportunity nexus emphasizes that both the characteristics of individuals and venture ideas have roles in the entrepreneurial process (Shane & Venkataraman, 2000). Following upon this assertion the present study examined whether the venture idea novelty and investment of resources can make an important part in the venture creation process. Data analysed for a sample of nascent entrepreneurs in Australia suggests that the novelty of venture ideas restricts the performance of nascent ventures. However, the more investment of time and money do not show a significant impact to the venture performance.

Announcement and enactment of legislation improve children’s car seating positions

Purpose: Evaluate effectiveness of new legislation Are children more likely to sit in the rear seat now than previously? ----- Are they more likely to wear an age-appropriate restraint? How easy is it for parents to comply (what are the barriers)?----- What more can be done? ----- ----- Design: 2 studies Study 1-observational 3 time phases (pre-legislation; post announcement; post enactment)----- Study 2-intercept interviews 2 time phases (post announcement; post enactment, same parents)----- Three data collection phases: T1 (before announcement, 2007) T2 (after announcement but before enactment, 2009-10) T3 (after the enactment, 2010)----- Two regional cities: Toowoomba, Rockhampton----- Site types Schools, shopping areas

Towards a model for the analysis and description of mathematical knowledge and understanding

Mathematics education literature has called for an abandonment of ontological and epistemological ideologies that have often divided theory-based practice. Instead, a consilience of theories has been sought which would leverage the strengths of each learning theory and so positively impact upon contemporary educational practice. This research activity is based upon Popper’s notion of three knowledge worlds which differentiates the knowledge shared in a community from the personal knowledge of the individual, and Bereiter’s characterisation of understanding as the individual’s relationship to tool-like knowledge. Using these notions, a re-conceptualisation of knowledge and understanding and a subsequent re-consideration of learning theories are proposed as a way to address the challenge set by literature. Referred to as the alternative theoretical framework, the proposed theory accounts for the scaffolded transformation of each individual’s unique understanding, whilst acknowledging the existence of a body of domain knowledge shared amongst participants in a scientific community of practice. The alternative theoretical framework is embodied within an operational model that is accompanied by a visual nomenclature with which to describe consensually developed shared knowledge and personal understanding. This research activity has sought to iteratively evaluate this proposed theory through the practical application of the operational model and visual nomenclature to the domain of early-number counting, addition and subtraction. This domain of mathematical knowledge has been comprehensively analysed and described. Through this process, the viability of the proposed theory as a tool with which to discuss and thus improve the knowledge and understanding with the domain of mathematics has been validated. Putting of the proposed theory into practice has lead to the theory’s refinement and the subsequent achievement of a solid theoretical base for the future development of educational tools to support teaching and learning practice, including computer-mediated learning environments. Such future activity, using the proposed theory, will advance contemporary mathematics educational practice by bringing together the strengths of cognitivist, constructivist and post-constructivist learning theories.

The life-history and relationships of ‘Orthocladius’ pictipennis Freeman (Diptera: Chironomidae)

The previously unknown larva and pupa of ‘Orthocladius’ pictipennis Freeman have been found, and associated by molecular means. Pharate pupae (males within pupae) allow the link to the described adult. We describe the larva and pupa, and provide short notes on the adult. The taxon is unrelated to Orthocladius – no members of this Holarctic genus are present in New Zealand – and therefore we provide a new generic name, Paulfreemania Cranston and Krosch gen. n. as well as a short discussion of relationships amongst austral Orthocladiinae.

Incidence, severity and correlates of bicycling injuries in a sample of cyclists in Queensland, Australia

Bicycle injuries, particularly those resulting from single bicycle crashes, are underreported in both police and hospital records. Data on cyclist characteristics and crash circumstances are also often lacking. As a result, the ability to develop comprehensive injury prevention policies is hampered. The aim of this study was to examine the incidence, severity, cyclist characteristics, and crash circumstances associated with cycling injuries in a sample of cyclists in Queensland, Australia. A cross-sectional study of Queensland cyclists was conducted in 2009. Respondents (n=2056) completed an online survey about their cycling experiences, including cycling injuries. Logistic regression modelling was used to examine the associations between demographic and cycling behaviour variables with experiencing cycling injuries in the past year, and, separately, with serious cycling injuries requiring a trip to a hospital. Twenty-seven percent of respondents (n=545) reported injuries, and 6% (n=114) reported serious injuries. In multivariable modelling, reporting an injury was more likely for respondents who had cycled <5 years, compared to ≥10 years (p<0.005); cycled for competition (p=0.01); or experienced harassment from motor vehicle occupants (p<0.001). There were no gender differences in injury incidence, and respondents who cycled for transport did not have an increased risk of injury. Reporting a serious injury was more likely for those whose injury involved other road users (p<0.03). Along with environmental and behavioural approaches for reducing collisions and near-collisions with motor vehicles, interventions that improve the design and maintenance of cycling infrastructure, increase cyclists’ skills, and encourage safe cycling behaviours and bicycle maintenance will also be important for reducing the overall incidence of cycling injuries.

Relationships between preventive activities, psychosocial factors and recurrence of venous leg ulcers : a prospective study

Aim To identify relationships between preventive activities, psychosocial factors and leg ulcer recurrence in patients with chronic venous leg ulcers. Background Chronic venous leg ulcers are slow to heal and frequently recur, resulting in years of suffering and intensive use of health care resources. Methods A prospective longitudinal study was undertaken with a sample of 80 patients with a venous leg ulcer recruited when their ulcer healed. Data were collected from 2006–2009 from medical records on demographics, medical history and ulcer history; and from self-report questionnaires on physical activity, nutrition, preventive activities and psychosocial measures. Follow-up data were collected via questionnaires every three months for 12 months after healing. Median time to recurrence was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used to adjust for potential confounders and determine effects of preventive strategies and psychosocial factors on recurrence. Results: There were 35 recurrences in a sample of 80 participants. Median time to recurrence was 27 weeks. After adjustment for potential confounders, a Cox proportional hazards regression model found that at least an hour/day of leg elevation, six or more days/week in Class 2 (20–25mmHg) or 3 (30–40mmHg) compression hosiery, higher social support scale scores and higher General Self-Efficacy scores remained significantly associated (p<0.05) with a lower risk of recurrence, while male gender and a history of DVT remained significant risk factors for recurrence. Conclusion Results indicate that leg elevation, compression hosiery, high levels of self-efficacy and strong social support will help prevent recurrence.

Determinants and consequences of information sharing with key suppliers

The economic environment of today can be characterized as highly dynamic and competitive if not being in a constant flux. Globalization and the Information Technology (IT) revolution are perhaps the main contributing factors to this observation. While companies have to some extent adapted to the current business environment, new pressures such as the recent increase in environmental awareness and its likely effects on regulations are underway. Hence, in the light of market and competitive pressures, companies must constantly evaluate and if necessary update their strategies to sustain and increase the value they create for shareholders (Hunt and Morgan, 1995; Christopher and Towill, 2002). One way to create greater value is to become more efficient in producing and delivering goods and services to customers, which can lead to a strategy known as cost leadership (Porter, 1980). Even though Porter (1996) notes that in the long run cost leadership may not be a sufficient strategy for competitive advantage, operational efficiency is certainly necessary and should therefore be on the agenda of every company. ----- ----- ----- Better workflow management, technology, and resource utilization can lead to greater internal operational efficiency, which explains why, for example, many companies have recently adopted Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Systems: integrated softwares that streamline business processes. However, as today more and more companies are approaching internal operational excellence, the focus for finding inefficiencies and cost saving opportunities is moving beyond the boundaries of the firm. Today many firms in the supply chain are engaging in collaborative relationships with customers, suppliers, and third parties (services) in an attempt to cut down on costs related to for example, inventory, production, as well as to facilitate synergies. Thus, recent years have witnessed fluidity and blurring regarding organizational boundaries (Coad and Cullen, 2006). ----- ----- ----- The Information Technology (IT) revolution of the late 1990’s has played an important role in bringing organizations closer together. In their efforts to become more efficient, companies first integrated their information systems to speed up transactions such as ordering and billing. Later collaboration on a multidimensional scale including logistics, production, and Research & Development became evident as companies expected substantial benefits from collaboration. However, one could also argue that the recent popularity of the concepts falling under Supply Chain Management (SCM) such as Vendor Managed Inventory, Collaborative Planning, Replenishment, and Forecasting owe to the marketing efforts of software vendors and consultants who provide these solutions. Nevertheless, reports from professional organizations as well as academia indicate that the trend towards interorganizational collaboration is gaining wider ground. For example, the ARC Advisory Group, a research organization on supply chain solutions, estimated that the market for SCM, which includes various kinds of collaboration tools and related services, is going to grow at an annual rate of 7.4% during the years 2004-2008, reaching to $7.4 billion in 2008 (Engineeringtalk 2004).

Thermal behavior and decomposition of kaolinite-potassium acetate intercalation composite

A series of kaolinite-potassium acetate intercalation composite was prepared. The thermal behavior and decomposition of these composites were investigated by simultaneous differential scanning calorimetry-thermogravimetric analysis (DSC-TGA), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Fourier-transformation infrared (FT-IR). The XRD pattern at room temperature indicated that intercalation of potassium acetate into kaolinite causes an increase of the basal spacing from 0.718 to 1.428nm. The peak intensity of the expanded phase of the composite decreased with heating above 300°C, and the basal spacing reduced to 1.19nm at 350°C and 0.718nm at 400°C. These were supported by DSC-TGA and FT-IR measurements, where the endothermic reactions are observed between 300 and 600°C. These reactions can be divided into two stages: 1) Removal of the intercalated molecules between 300-400°C. 2) Dehydroxylation of kaolinite between 400-600°C. Significant changes were observed in the infrared bands assigned to outer surface hydroxyl, inner surface hydroxyl, inner hydroxyl and hydrogen bands.

Spatially offset Raman spectroscopy (SORS) for the analysis and detection of packaged pharmaceuticals and concealed drugs

Spatially offset Raman spectroscopy (SORS) is a powerful new technique for the non-invasive detection and identification of concealed substances and drugs. Here, we demonstrate the SORS technique in several scenarios that are relevant to customs screening, postal screening, drug detection and forensics applications. The examples include analysis of a multi-layered postal package to identify a concealed substance; identification of an antibiotic capsule inside its plastic blister pack; analysis of an envelope containing a powder; and identification of a drug dissolved in a clear solvent, contained in a non-transparent plastic bottle. As well as providing practical examples of SORS, the results highlight several considerations regarding the use of SORS in the field, including the advantages of different analysis geometries and the ability to tailor instrument parameters and optics to suit different types of packages and samples. We also discuss the features and benefits of SORS in relation to existing Raman techniques, including confocal microscopy, wide area illumination and the conventional backscattered Raman spectroscopy. The results will contribute to the recognition of SORS as a promising method for the rapid, chemically-specific analysis and detection of drugs and pharmaceuticals.

Characterisation of organoclays and adsorption of p-nitrophenol : environmental application

Organoclays were synthesised through ion exchange of a single surfactant for sodium ions, and characterised by a range of method including X-ray diffraction (XRD), BET, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The change in surface properties of montmorillonite and organoclays intercalated with the surfactant, tetradecyltrimethylammonium bromide (TDTMA) were determined using XRD through the change in basal spacing and the expansion occurred by the adsorbed p-nitrophenol. The changes of interlayer spacing were observed in TEM. In addition, the surface measurement such as specific surface area and pore volume was measured and calculated using BET method, this suggested the loaded surfactant is highly important to determine the sorption mechanism onto organoclays. The collected results of XPS provided the chemical composition of montmorillonite and organoclays, and the high-resolution XPS spectra offered the chemical states of prepared organoclays with binding energy. Using TGA and FT-IR, the confirmation of intercalated surfactant was investigated. The collected data from various techniques enable an understanding of the changes in structure and surface properties. This study is of importance to provide mechanisms for the adsorption of organic molecules, especially in contaminated environmental sites and polluted waters.