Sediment concentration prediction and statistical evaluation for annual load estimation

We consider the development of statistical models for prediction of constituent concentration of riverine pollutants, which is a key step in load estimation from frequent flow rate data and less frequently collected concentration data. We consider how to capture the impacts of past flow patterns via the average discounted flow (ADF) which discounts the past flux based on the time lapsed - more recent fluxes are given more weight. However, the effectiveness of ADF depends critically on the choice of the discount factor which reflects the unknown environmental cumulating process of the concentration compounds. We propose to choose the discount factor by maximizing the adjusted R-2 values or the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The R2 values are also adjusted to take account of the number of parameters in the model fit. The resulting optimal discount factor can be interpreted as a measure of constituent exhaustion rate during flood events. To evaluate the performance of the proposed regression estimators, we examine two different sampling scenarios by resampling fortnightly and opportunistically from two real daily datasets, which come from two United States Geological Survey (USGS) gaging stations located in Des Plaines River and Illinois River basin. The generalized rating-curve approach produces biased estimates of the total sediment loads by -30% to 83%, whereas the new approaches produce relatively much lower biases, ranging from -24% to 35%. This substantial improvement in the estimates of the total load is due to the fact that predictability of concentration is greatly improved by the additional predictors.

How to develop an online community for pre-service and early career teachers

This paper contributes a number of design principles for developing large-scale online communities of pre-service and early career teachers (PS&ECTs). It presents the paradigms of connected learning, networked learning and communities of practice and contrasts them. It describes the potential for online communities to meet the needs of PS&ECTs and it identifies gaps that exist within certain types of existing online communities that currently support PS&ECTs. The paper proposes design principles for a new type of online community for PS&ECTs. These principles are drawn from the literature and from the preliminary outcomes of a pilot study.

Online grocery shopping: The impact of shopping frequency on perceived risk

Online grocery shopping has enjoyed strong growth and it is predicted this channel will continue to grow exponentially in the coming years. While online shopping has attracted an abundance of research interest, examinations of online grocery shopping behaviour are only now emerging. Shopping online for groceries differs considerably from general online shopping due to the perishability and variability of the product, and frequency of the shopping activity. Two salient gaps underpin this research into online grocery shopping. This study responds to calls to investigate the online shoppers’ experience in the context of online purchasing frequency. Second, this study examines the mediating effect of perceived risk between trust and online repurchase intention of groceries. An online survey was employed to collect data from shoppers who were recruited from a multi-channel grocery e-retailer’s database. The online survey, comprising 16 reflective validated scale items, was sent to 555 frequent and infrequent online grocery shoppers. Results find that while customer satisfaction predicts trust for both infrequent and frequent online grocery shoppers, perceived risk fully mediates the effect of trust on repurchase intentions for infrequent online grocery shoppers. Furthermore path analysis reveals that the developed behavioural model is variant across both groups of shoppers. Theoretically, we provide a deeper understanding of the online customer experience, while gaining insight into two shopper segments identified as being important to grocery e-retailers. For managers, this study tests an online customer behavioural model with actual purchasing behaviour and identifies the continued presence of perceived risk in grocery e-retailing regardless of purchase frequency or experience.

An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets

We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.

The ACA effect: Examining how current affairs programs shape victim understandings and responses to online fraud

In recent years, numerous current affairs stories on online fraud victimisation have been broadcast on Australian television. These stories typically feature highly organised, international ‘sting’ operations, in which alleged offenders are arrested and investigated by law enforcement. These portrayals of police responses influence the expectations that some online fraud victims have about how their individual cases will be handled by law enforcement. Based on interviews with 80 online fraud victims, this article argues that a narrow media portrayal of online fraud by television current affairs programs — termed the ‘ACA effect’ — informs victims’ understandings of online fraud and their responses to it. In particular, current affairs programs influence what victims of online fraud expect from police. The article further demonstrates that current affairs programs present themselves as de facto law enforcement agencies, to which victims who receive an unsatisfactory response from police might turn. Overall, the article highlights the importance of current affairs programs portraying a more realistic image of official responses to online fraud.

The Google Online Marketing Challenge: A Transnational Comparison of Classroom Learning with Real Clients, Real Money, and Real Advertising Campaigns

In 2008, a collaborative partnership between Google and academia launched the Google Online Marketing Challenge (hereinafter Google Challenge), perhaps the world’s largest in-class competition for higher education students. In just two years, almost 20,000 students from 58 countries participated in the Google Challenge. The Challenge gives undergraduate and graduate students hands-on experience with the world’s fastest growing advertising mechanism, search engine advertising. Funded by Google, students develop an advertising campaign for a small to medium sized enterprise and manage the campaign over three consecutive weeks using the Google AdWords platform. This article explores the Challenge as an innovative pedagogical tool for marketing educators. Based on the experiences of three instructors in Australia, Canada and the United States, this case study discusses the opportunities and challenges of integrating this dynamic problem-based learning approach into the classroom.

Subtypes of psychotic-like experiences are differentially associated with suicidal ideation, plans and attempts in young adults

Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) have been associated with increased risk of suicidality, but it is unclear whether the level of risk varies with different types of PLE. A cross-sectional online survey was completed by 1610 university students. Respondents completed the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences-15 (CAPE-P15) assessing PLEs on three subscales: Perceptual Abnormalities (PA), Persecutory Ideation (PI) and Bizarre Experiences (BE). Lifetime suicidal ideation, plans and attempts, cannabis, ecstasy and methamphetamine use and family history of mental disorder were also assessed. Multinomal logistic regression was used to examine unique determinants of lifetime suicidality, defined as any history of (i) suicidal ideation or plans and (ii) any attempt, relative to no lifetime history of suicidality. A lifetime history of PA and PI provided significant unique contributions to the prediction of suicide risk, after control for other significant predictors. BE were not associated with any suicide variable demonstrating the variation in risk of suicidality with different types of PLEs. Perceptual abnormalities and persecutory ideation as measured by the CAPE-P15 are the PLEs associated with a higher risk of lifetime suicidality.

Constellations: A participatory, online application for research collaboration in higher education interdisciplinary courses

The research establishes a model for online learning centering on the needs of integrative knowledge practices. Through the metaphor of Constellations, the practice-based research explores the complexities of working within interdisciplinary learning contexts and the potential of tools such as the Folksonomy learning platform for providing necessary conceptual support.

PMU measurement based dynamic load modeling using SVC devices in online environment

Online dynamic load modeling has become possible with the availability of Static Voltage Compensator (SVC) and Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) devices. The power of the load response to the small random bounded voltage fluctuations caused from SVC can be measured by PMU for modelling purposes. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the capability of identifying an aggregated load model from high voltage substation level in the online environment. The induction motor is used as the main test subject since it contributes the majority of the dynamic loads. A test system representing simple electromechanical generator model serving dynamic loads through the transmission network is used to verify the proposed method. Also, dynamic load with multiple induction motors are modeled to achieve a better realistic load representation.

Impact of online privacy concerns and brand reputation on consumer willingness to provide personal information

The aim of this research was to identify the role of brand reputation in encouraging consumer willingness to provide personal data online, for the benefits of personalisation. This study extends on Malhotra, Kim and Agarwal’s (2004) Internet Users Information Privacy Concerns Model, and uses the theoretical underpinning of Social Contract Theory to assess how brand reputation moderates the relationship between trusting beliefs and perceived value (Privacy Calculus framework) with willingness to give personal information. The research is highly relevant as most privacy research undertaken to date focuses on consumer related concerns. Very little research exists examining the role of brand reputation and online privacy. Practical implications of this research include gaining knowledge as to how to minimise online privacy concerns; improve brand reputation; and provide insight on how to reduce consumer resistance to the collection of personal information and encourage consumer opt-in.

Evaluate traffic noise level based on traffic microsimulation combined with a refined classic noise prediction method

In this paper, a refined classic noise prediction method based on the VISSIM and FHWA noise prediction model is formulated to analyze the sound level contributed by traffic on the Nanjing Lukou airport connecting freeway before and after widening. The aim of this research is to (i) assess the traffic noise impact on the Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (NUAA) campus before and after freeway widening, (ii) compare the prediction results with field data to test the accuracy of this method, (iii) analyze the relationship between traffic characteristics and sound level. The results indicate that the mean difference between model predictions and field measurements is acceptable. The traffic composition impact study indicates that buses (including mid-sized trucks) and heavy goods vehicles contribute a significant proportion of total noise power despite their low traffic volume. In addition, speed analysis offers an explanation for the minor differences in noise level across time periods. Future work will aim at reducing model error, by focusing on noise barrier analysis using the FEM/BEM method and modifying the vehicle noise emission equation by conducting field experimentation.

Prediction of masonry compressive behaviour using a damage mechanics inspired modelling method

Masonry under compression is affected by the properties of its constituents and their interfaces. In spite of extensive investigations of the behaviour of masonry under compression, the information in the literature cannot be regarded as comprehensive due to ongoing inventions of new generation products – for example, polymer modified thin layer mortared masonry and drystack masonry. As comprehensive experimental studies are very expensive, an analytical model inspired by damage mechanics is developed and applied to the prediction of the compressive behaviour of masonry in this paper. The model incorporates a parabolic progressively softening stress-strain curve for the units and a progressively stiffening stress-strain curve until a threshold strain for the combined mortar and the unit-mortar interfaces is reached. The model simulates the mutual constraints imposed by each of these constituents through their respective tensile and compressive behaviour and volumetric changes. The advantage of the model is that it requires only the properties of the constituents and considers masonry as a continuum and computes the average properties of the composite masonry prisms/wallettes; it does not require discretisation of prism or wallette similar to the finite element methods. The capability of the model in capturing the phenomenological behaviour of masonry with appropriate elastic response, stiffness degradation and post peak softening is presented through numerical examples. The fitting of the experimental data to the model parameters is demonstrated through calibration of some selected test data on units and mortar from the literature; the calibrated model is shown to predict the responses of the experimentally determined masonry built using the corresponding units and mortar quite well. Through a series of sensitivity studies, the model is also shown to predict the masonry strength appropriately for changes to the properties of the units and mortar, the mortar joint thickness and the ratio of the height of unit to mortar joint thickness. The unit strength is shown to affect the masonry strength significantly. Although the mortar strength has only a marginal effect, reduction in mortar joint thickness is shown to have a profound effect on the masonry strength. The results obtained from the model are compared with the various provisions in the Australian Masonry Structures Standard AS3700 (2011) and Eurocode 6.

Online learning an effective means for developing small business owner-managers’ capabilities?

Purpose If owner-managers engage in management development activities then chances of success may be improved for small businesses. But small business owner-managers (SBOMs) are a difficult group to engage in management development activities. While practitioners worry about timing, content and location of development activities, the purpose of this paper is to examine what drives SBOMs to participate in an online discussion forum (ODF) as a form of management development. An ODF was run with SBOMs and the factors affecting their participation are reported from this exploratory study. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative methodology was used where data gathered from three sources, the ODF posts, in-depth interviews with participants and a focus group with non-participants. These were analysed to evaluate factors affecting participation of SBOMs in an ODF. Findings The findings point to the importance of owner-managers’ attitudes. Attitudes that positively affected SBOMs participation in the ODF included; appreciating that learning leads to business success; positive self-efficacy developed through prior online experience; and an occupational identity as a business manager. Research limitations/implications Few SBOMs participated in the ODF, which is consistent with research finding that they are a difficult group to engage in management development learning activities. Three forms of data were analysed to strengthen results. Practical implications Caution should be exercised when considering investment in e-learning to develop the managerial capabilities of SBOMs. Originality/value Evidence of the factors important for participation in an informal voluntary ODF. The findings suggest greater emphasis should be placed on changing attitudes if SBOMs are to be encouraged to participate in management development activities.

Policing online fraud in Australia: The emergence of a victim‐oriented approach

Online fraud is a global problem. Millions of individuals worldwide are losing money and experiencing the devastation associated with becoming a victim of online fraud. In 2014, Australians reported losses of $82 million as a result of online fraud to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). Given that the ACCC is one of many agencies that receives victim complaints, and the extent of under‐reporting of online fraud, this figure is likely to represent only a fraction of the actual monetary losses incurred. The successful policing of online fraud is hampered by its transnational nature, the prevalence of false/stolen identities used by offenders, and a lack of resources available to investigate offences. In addition, police are restricted by the geographical boundaries of their own jurisdictions which conflicts with the lack of boundaries afforded to offenders by the virtual world. In response to this, Australia is witnessing the emergence of victim‐oriented policing approaches to counter online fraud victimisation. This incorporates the use of financial intelligence as a tool to proactively notify potential victims of online fraud. Using a variety of Australian examples, this paper documents the history to this new approach and considers the significance that such a shift represents to policing in a broader context. It also details the value that this approach can have to both victims and law enforcement agencies. Overall, it is argued that a victim‐oriented approach to policing online fraud can have substantial benefits to police and victims alike.

Engaging in online postgraduate education as means of professional learning

With enrolments in higher education becoming a competitive market, through the removal of caps in 2012, the equitable access to postgraduate education is raised. Postgraduate education, provided through higher education institutions, is an important aspect of career development for professionals. Professionals working outside of the metropolitan area are increasingly seeking postgraduate education opportunities that will be delivered online, at a distance. In this research study, data collected from the teaching profession, has culminated in a model that will ultimately improve access to professional learning. This research paper aims to highlight the important role that higher education providers play in the delivery of postgraduate education to professionals working in regional and remote areas of Australia. Although this paper focuses on the realm of education, the model of connectedness, where synchronous and asynchronous technologies are used, can be adapted and applied to any profession that requires equitable access to professional learning.