735 resultados para Bayesian framework


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Researchers are increasingly grappling with ways of theorizing social media and its use. This review essay proposes that the theory of Information Grounds (IG) may provide a valuable lens for understanding how social media fosters collaboration and social engagement among information professionals. The paper presents literature that helps us understand how social media can be seen as IG, and maps the characteristics of social media to the seven propositions of IG theory. This work is part of a wider study investigating the ways in which Information Technology (IT) professionals experience social media.

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Most commentators understand that contemporary social, economic and environmental challenges require quality governance from global to local scales. While public scrutiny of governance has increased in recent years, the literature on frameworks and methods for analysis in complex, poly-centric and multi-thematic governance systems remains fragmented; displaying many disciplinary or sectoral biases. This paper establishes a stronger theory-based foundation for the analysis of complex governance systems. It also develops a clear analytical framework applicable across a vast array of differing governance themes, domains and scales (GSA). The key methodological steps and evaluative criteria for the GSA framework are determined and practical guidance for its application in reform is provided.

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Natural resource management planning in the Northern Gulf region of Queensland is concerned with ‘how [natural assets] and community aspirations can be protected and enhanced to provide the Northern Gulf community with the economic, social and environmental means to meet the continuing growth of the region in an ecological and economically sustainable way’ (McDonald & Dawson 2004). In the Etheridge Shire, located in the tropical savanna of the Northern Gulf region, two of the activities that influence the balance between economic growth and long-term sustainable development are: 1. the land-use decisions people in the Shire make with regards to their own enterprises. 2. their decisions to engage in civically-minded activities aimed at improving conditions in the region. Land-use decision and engagement in community development activities were chosen for detailed analysis because they are activities for which policies can be devised to improve economic and sustainable development outcomes. Changing the formal and informal rules that guide and govern these two different kinds of decisions that people can make in the Etheridge Shire – the decision to improve one’s own situation and the decision to improve the situation for others in the community – may expand the set of available options for people in the Shire to achieve their goals and aspirations. Identifying appropriate and effective changes in rules requires, first, an understanding of the ‘action arena’, in this case comprised of a diversity of ‘participants’ from both within and outside the Etheridge Shire, and secondly knowledge of ‘action situations’ (land-use decisions and engagement in community development activities) in which stakeholders are involved and/or have a stake. These discussions are presented in sections 4.1.1.1 and 4.1.1.2.

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Management of project knowledge is a critical factor for project success. Project Management Office (PMO) is a unit within organisations to centrally facilitate, manage and control organisational project for improving the rate of project success. Due to increasing interest of developing PMO, the Project Management Maturity Model (PMMM) has been proposed to develop PMOs gradually. The PMMM contributes to evolvement of PMO from immature to mature level through addressing appropriate PM practices. Despite the importance of project knowledge, it has not been extensively investigated in project environments. In addition, the existing PMMMs not only do not address management of project knowledge, but also they recommend little criteria to assess the maturity of PMO from KM point of view. The absence of KM discussion in current PMMMs was defined as the subject of a research project in order for addressing KM practices at various maturity levels of PMO. In order to address the mentioned gap, a framework has been developed based on the current discussions of both PM and KM. The proposed framework comprises three premises: KM processes and practices, PMMM, and KM Maturity Model (KMMM). The incorporation of KMMM practices at various maturity levels of PMO is one of the significance of this framework. It proposes numbers of KM strategies, processes, and practices to address project knowledge management at various levels PMO. This framework shall be useful guidance for developing PMOs from KM perspective. In other words, it contributes to management of project knowledge, as a key for project success. The proposed framework follows the process-based approach and it could be employed alongside the current PMMMs for PMO development. This paper presents the developed framework, theoretical background, premises, proposed KM practices, and processes to be employed in Project-based Organisations and PMOs. This framework has been examined at numbers of case studies with different maturity levels. The case studies outcomes, which will be subjects for future papers, have not shown any significant contradiction yet, however, more investigations are being conducted to validate the proposed framework.

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Background & Objectives Emergency health services (EHS) throughout the world are increasingly congested. As more people use EHS, factors such as population growth and aging cannot fully explain this increase. Also, focus on patients’ clinical characteristics ignores the role that attitudinal and perceptual factors and motivations play in directing their decisions and actions. The aim of this study is to review and synthesize an integrated conceptual framework for understanding social psychological factors underpinning demand for EHS. Methodology A comprehensive search and review of empirical and theoretical studies about the utilization of EHS was conducted using major medical, health, social and behavioral sciences databases. Results A small number of studies used a relevant conceptual framework (e.g. Health Services Utilization Model or Health Belief Model) or their components to analyze patients’ decision to use EHS. The studies evidenced that demand was affected by perceived severity of the condition; perceived costs and benefits (e.g. availability, accessibility and affordability of alternative services); experience, preference and knowledge; perceived and actual social support; and demographic characteristics (e.g. age, sex, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, marital and living circumstances, place of residence). Conclusions Conceptual models that are commonly used in areas like social and behavioral sciences have rarely been applied in the EHS utilization field. Understanding patients’ decision-making and associated factors will lay the groundwork for identification of the evidence to inform improved policy responses and the development of demand management strategies. An integrated conceptual framework will be introduced as part of this study.

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Hospital disaster resilience can be defined as “the ability of hospitals to resist, absorb, and respond to the shock of disasters while maintaining and surging essential health services, and then to recover to its original state or adapt to a new one.” This article aims to provide a framework which can be used to comprehensively measure hospital disaster resilience. An evaluation framework for assessing hospital resilience was initially proposed through a systematic literature review and Modified-Delphi consultation. Eight key domains were identified: hospital safety, command, communication and cooperation system, disaster plan, resource stockpile, staff capability, disaster training and drills, emergency services and surge capability, and recovery and adaptation. The data for this study were collected from 41 tertiary hospitals in Shandong Province in China, using a specially designed questionnaire. Factor analysis was conducted to determine the underpinning structure of the framework. It identified a four-factor structure of hospital resilience, namely, emergency medical response capability (F1), disaster management mechanisms (F2), hospital infrastructural safety (F3), and disaster resources (F4). These factors displayed good internal consistency. The overall level of hospital disaster resilience (F) was calculated using the scoring model: F = 0.615F1 + 0.202F2 + 0.103F3 + 0.080F4. This validated framework provides a new way to operationalise the concept of hospital resilience, and it is also a foundation for the further development of the measurement instrument in future studies.

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The question can no longer just be whether “art and social practice” or creative forms of activism are part of larger neo liberal agenda nor if they are potentially radical in their conception, delivery or consumption. The question also becomes: what are the effects of social practice art and design for the artists, institutions, and the publics they elicit in public and private spaces; that is, how can we consider such artworks differently? I argue the dilution of social practices’ potentially radical interventions into cultural processes and their absorption into larger neo liberal agendas limits how, as Jacques Rancière might argue, they can intervene in the “distribution of the sensible.” I will use a case study example from The Center for Tactical Magic, an artist group from the San Francisco Bay Area.

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Motivated by the analysis of the Australian Grain Insect Resistance Database (AGIRD), we develop a Bayesian hurdle modelling approach to assess trends in strong resistance of stored grain insects to phosphine over time. The binary response variable from AGIRD indicating presence or absence of strong resistance is characterized by a majority of absence observations and the hurdle model is a two step approach that is useful when analyzing such a binary response dataset. The proposed hurdle model utilizes Bayesian classification trees to firstly identify covariates and covariate levels pertaining to possible presence or absence of strong resistance. Secondly, generalized additive models (GAMs) with spike and slab priors for variable selection are fitted to the subset of the dataset identified from the Bayesian classification tree indicating possibility of presence of strong resistance. From the GAM we assess trends, biosecurity issues and site specific variables influencing the presence of strong resistance using a variable selection approach. The proposed Bayesian hurdle model is compared to its frequentist counterpart, and also to a naive Bayesian approach which fits a GAM to the entire dataset. The Bayesian hurdle model has the benefit of providing a set of good trees for use in the first step and appears to provide enough flexibility to represent the influence of variables on strong resistance compared to the frequentist model, but also captures the subtle changes in the trend that are missed by the frequentist and naive Bayesian models.

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The capacity to identify an unknown organism using the DNA sequence from a single gene has many applications. These include the development of biodiversity inventories (Janzen et al. 2005), forensics (Meiklejohn et al. 2011), biosecurity (Armstrong and Ball 2005), and the identification of cryptic species (Smith et al. 2006). The popularity and widespread use (Teletchea 2010) of the DNA barcoding approach (Hebert et al. 2003), despite broad misgivings (e.g., Smith 2005; Will et al. 2005; Rubinoff et al. 2006), attest to this. However, one major shortcoming to the standard barcoding approach is that it assumes that gene trees and species trees are synonymous, an assumption that is known not to hold in many cases (Pamilo and Nei 1988; Funk and Omland 2003). Biological processes that violate this assumption include incomplete lineage sorting and interspecific hybridization (Funk and Omland 2003). Indeed, simulation studies indicate that the concatenation approach (in which these two processes are ignored) can lead to statistically inconsistent estimation of the species tree (Kubatko and Degnan 2007)...

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The built environment has a profound impact on our natural environment, economy, health and productivity. As the majority of the people spent most of their time inside buildings, the environment in which they perform their daily activities will have an impact on their health and productivity. Studies have been conducted about the negative impacts of presence of non-favorable conditions to human health and well being. The term "Sick Building Syndrome" (SBS) is used to describe situations in which building occupants experience acute health and comfort problems that appear to be linked to their time spent in a building. Sustainable infrastructure rating systems have requirements intended to improve occupant productivity and health.While the impact of Sustainable Infrastructure in energy consumption and waste/water reduction can be measured using available tools, the impact on productivity remained as an assumption that is not clearly measured. The purpose of this research is to develop a framework to assess whether the impacts of the incorporation of features intended to improve occupants’ performance and health such as: increased ventilation, lightning and thermal comfort serve their intended purpose.

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This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

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Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+) has emerged out of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)/Kyoto Protocol negotiations. It is intended to be a mechanism to channel funding (from both public and private sources) for reducing emissions from the forest sector. It is an international climate change policy that relies on national implementation. In order to attract and manage REDD+ investments (both public and private), countries need to decide on their approach to REDD+ implementation through a series of policy choices, and then implement those policy choices through strong legal frameworks. An important question for REDD+ host countries to consider, therefore, is how to develop robust legal structures to facilitate REDD+ implementation. These legal frameworks could be based on existing laws, and/or require new law making.

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An approach is proposed and applied to five industries to prove how phenomenology can be valuable in rethinking consumer markets (Popp & Holt, 2013). The purpose of this essay is to highlight the potential implications that 'phenomenological thinking' brings for competitiveness and innovation (Sanders, 1982), hence helping managers being more innovative in their strategic marketing decisions (i.e. market creation, positioning, branding). Phenomenology is in fact a way of thinking − besides and before being a qualitative research procedure − a very practical exercise that strategic managers can master and apply in the same successful way as other scientists have already done in their fields of study (e.g. sociology, psychology, psychiatry, and anthropology). Two fundamental considerations justify this research: a lack of distinctiveness among firms due to high levels of competition and consumers no longer knowing what they want (i.e. no more needs). The authors will show how the classical mental framework generally used to study markets by practitioners appears on the one hand to be established and systematic in the life of a company, while on the other is no longer adequate to meet the needs of innovation required to survive. To the classic principles of objectivity, generality, and psycho-sociology the authors counterpose the imaginary, eidetic-phenomenological reduction, and an existential perspective. From a theoretical point of view, this paper introduces a set of functioning rules applicable to achieve innovation in any market and useful to identify cultural practices inherent in the act of consumption.