Editorial

The 2nd International Digital Human Modeling (DHM) Symposium was held at the renowned University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) in Ann Arbor, Michigan in June 11–13, 2013. The symposium was co-organised by the UMTRI and Penn State University, and endorsed by the IEA Technical Committee on Human Simulation and Virtual Environments. The conference built on the very successful inaugural event DHM2011 held in Lyon two years before; and a decade of digital human modelling conferences held under the auspices of SAE International. Practitioners and scientists from 13 countries gathered to present their state-of-the-art developments and applied research, besides discussing the most recent advances in human modelling and directions for future work in DHM...

A recommendation system for predicting risks across multiple business process instances

This paper proposes a recommendation system that supports process participants in taking risk-informed decisions, with the goal of reducing risks that may arise during process execution. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a business process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to a risk of reputation loss, we enact this process and whenever a process participant needs to provide input to the process, e.g. by selecting the next task to execute or by filling out a form, we suggest to the participant the action to perform which minimizes the predicted process risk. Risks are predicted by traversing decision trees generated from the logs of past process executions, which consider process data, involved resources, task durations and other information elements like task frequencies. When applied in the context of multiple process instances running concurrently, a second technique is employed that uses integer linear programming to compute the optimal assignment of resources to tasks to be performed, in order to deal with the interplay between risks relative to different instances. The recommendation system has been implemented as a set of components on top of the YAWL BPM system and its effectiveness has been evaluated using a real-life scenario, in collaboration with risk analysts of a large insurance company. The results, based on a simulation of the real-life scenario and its comparison with the event data provided by the company, show that the process instances executed concurrently complete with significantly fewer faults and with lower fault severities, when the recommendations provided by our recommendation system are taken into account.

A simulation model of the within-host dynamics of Plasmodium vivax infection

Background The benign reputation of Plasmodium vivax is at odds with the burden and severity of the disease. This reputation, combined with restricted in vitro techniques, has slowed efforts to gain an understanding of the parasite biology and interaction with its human host. Methods A simulation model of the within-host dynamics of P. vivax infection is described, incorporating distinctive characteristics of the parasite such as the preferential invasion of reticulocytes and hypnozoite production. The developed model is fitted using digitized time-series’ from historic neurosyphilis studies, and subsequently validated against summary statistics from a larger study of the same population. The Chesson relapse pattern was used to demonstrate the impact of released hypnozoites. Results The typical pattern for dynamics of the parasite population is a rapid exponential increase in the first 10 days, followed by a gradual decline. Gametocyte counts follow a similar trend, but are approximately two orders of magnitude lower. The model predicts that, on average, an infected naïve host in the absence of treatment becomes infectious 7.9 days post patency and is infectious for a mean of 34.4 days. In the absence of treatment, the effect of hypnozoite release was not apparent as newly released parasites were obscured by the existing infection. Conclusions The results from the model provides useful insights into the dynamics of P. vivax infection in human hosts, in particular the timing of host infectiousness and the role of the hypnozoite in perpetuating infection.

Visual control for automated aircraft collision avoidance systems

This thesis presents a new vision-based decision and control strategy for automated aircraft collision avoidance that can be realistically applied to the See and Avoid problem. The effectiveness of the control strategy positions the research as a major contribution toward realising the simultaneous operation of manned and unmanned aircraft within civilian airspace. Key developments include novel classical and visual predictive control frameworks, and a performance evaluation technique aligned with existing aviation practise and applicable to autonomous systems. The overall approach is demonstrated through experimental results on a small multirotor unmanned aircraft, and through high fidelity probabilistic simulation studies.

Virtual business role-play : leveraging familiar environments to prime stakeholder memory during process elicitation

Business process models have traditionally been an effective way of examining business practices to identify areas for improvement. While common information gathering approaches are generally efficacious, they can be quite time consuming and have the risk of developing inaccuracies when information is forgotten or incorrectly interpreted by analysts. In this study, the potential of a role-playing approach for process elicitation and specification has been examined. This method allows stakeholders to enter a virtual world and role-play actions as they would in reality. As actions are completed, a model is automatically developed, removing the need for stakeholders to learn and understand a modelling grammar. Empirical data obtained in this study suggests that this approach may not only improve both the number of individual process task steps remembered and the correctness of task ordering, but also provide a reduction in the time required for stakeholders to model a process view.

Environments for zonal cartilage tissue engineering

Articular cartilage is a highly organized tissue with cellular and matrix properties that vary with depth zones. Regenerating this zonal organization has proven difficult in tissue-engineered cartilage to treat damaged cartilage. In this thesis, we evaluated the effects of culture environments that mimic aspects of the native cartilage environment on chondrocyte subpopulations. We found that decellularized cartilage matrix can improve zonal tissue-engineered cartilage. Also, chondrocytes respond to signals from bone cells and compressive stimulation in a zone-dependent manner. These results highlight the importance of a zone-specific environment to improve tissue-engineered cartilage in vitro.

Airborne viable fungi in school environments in different climatic regions – A review

Elevated levels of fungi in indoor environments have been linked with mould/moisture damage in building structures. However, there is a lack of information about “normal” concentrations and flora as well as guidelines of viable fungi in the school environment in different climatic conditions. We have reviewed existing guidelines for indoor fungi and the current knowledge of the concentrations and flora of viable fungi in different climatic areas, the impact of the local factors on concentrations and flora of viable fungi in school environments. Meta-regression was performed to estimate the average behaviour for each analysis of interest, showing wide variation in the mean concentrations in outdoor and indoor school environments (range: 101-103 cfu/m3). These concentrations were significantly higher for both outdoors and indoors in the moderate than in the continental climatic area, showing that the climatic condition was a determinant for the concentrations of airborne viable fungi. The most common fungal species both in the moderate and continental area were Cladosporium spp. and Penicillium spp. The suggested few quantitative guidelines for indoor air viable fungi for school buildings are much lower than for residential areas. This review provides a synthesis, which can be used to guide the interpretation of the fungi measurements results and help to find indications of mould/moisture in school building structures.

Redundant sensing for localisation in outdoor industrial environments

We describe our experiences with automating a large fork-lift type vehicle that operates outdoors and in all weather. In particular, we focus on the use of independent and robust localisation systems for reliable navigation around the worksite. Two localisation systems are briefly described. The first is based on laser range finders and retro-reflective beacons, and the second uses a two camera vision system to estimate the vehicle’s pose relative to a known model of the surrounding buildings. We show the results from an experiment where the 20 tonne experimental vehicle, an autonomous Hot Metal Carrier, was conducting autonomous operations and one of the localisation systems was deliberately made to fail.

Inside the ‘Hurt Locker’: The combined effects of explosive ordnance disposal and chemical protective clothing on physiological tolerance time in extreme environments

Background Explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) technicians are often required to wear specialised clothing combinations that not only protect against the risk of explosion but also potential chemical contamination. This heavy (>35kg) and encapsulating ensemble is likely to increase physiological strain by increasing metabolic heat production and impairing heat dissipation. This study investigated the physiological tolerance times of two different chemical protective undergarments, commonly worn with EOD personal protective clothing, in a range of simulated environmental extremes and work intensities Methods Seven males performed eighteen trials wearing two ensembles. The trials involved walking on a treadmill at 2.5, 4 and 5.5 km.h-1 at each of the following environmental conditions, 21, 30 and 37°C wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT). The trials were ceased if the participants’ core temperature reached 39°C, if heart rate exceeded 90% of maximum, if walking time reached 60 minutes or due to volitional fatigue. Results Physiological tolerance times ranged from 8 to 60 min and the duration (mean difference: 2.78 min, P>0.05) were similar in both ensembles. A significant effect for environment (21>30>37°C WBGT, P<0.05) and work intensity (2.5>4>5.5 km.h-1, P< 0.05) was observed in tolerance time. The majority of trials across both ensembles (101/126; 80.1%) were terminated due to participants achieving a heart rate equivalent to greater than 90% of their maximum. Conclusions Physiological tolerance times wearing these two chemical protective undergarments, worn underneath EOD personal protective clothing, were similar and predominantly limited by cardiovascular strain.

Estimation of inhaled ultrafine particle surface area dose for urban environments

There is considerable scientific interest in personal exposure to ultrafine particles. Owing to their small size, these particles are able to penetrate deep into the lungs, where they may cause adverse respiratory, pulmonary and cardiovascular health effects. This article presents Bayesian hierarchical models for estimating and comparing inhaled particle surface area in the lung.

Histogram matching and global initialization for laser-only SLAM in large unstructured environments

This paper presents an enhanced algorithm for matching laser scan maps using histogram correlations. The histogram representation effectively summarizes a map's salient features such that pairs of maps can be matched efficiently without any prior guess as to their alignment. The histogram matching algorithm has been enhanced in order to work well in outdoor unstructured environments by using entropy metrics, weighted histograms and proper thresholding of quality metrics. Thus our large-scale scan-matching SLAM implementation has a vastly improved ability to close large loops in real-time even when odometry is not available. Our experimental results have demonstrated a successful mapping of the largest area ever mapped to date using only a single laser scanner. We also demonstrate our ability to solve the lost robot problem by localizing a robot to a previously built map without any prior initialization.

Dynamic agent composition for large-scale agent-based models

PURPOSE: This paper describes dynamic agent composition, used to support the development of flexible and extensible large-scale agent-based models (ABMs). This approach was motivated by a need to extend and modify, with ease, an ABM with an underlying networked structure as more information becomes available. Flexibility was also sought after so that simulations are set up with ease, without the need to program. METHODS: The dynamic agent composition approach consists in having agents, whose implementation has been broken into atomic units, come together at runtime to form the complex system representation on which simulations are run. These components capture information at a fine level of detail and provide a vast range of combinations and options for a modeller to create ABMs. RESULTS: A description of the dynamic agent composition is given in this paper, as well as details about its implementation within MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model), a software framework which is applied to the planning of the electricity distribution network. Illustrations of the implementation of the dynamic agent composition are consequently given for that domain throughout the paper. It is however expected that this approach will be beneficial to other problem domains, especially those with a networked structure, such as water or gas networks. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic agent composition has many advantages over the way agent-based models are traditionally built for the users, the developers, as well as for agent-based modelling as a scientific approach. Developers can extend the model without the need to access or modify previously written code; they can develop groups of entities independently and add them to those already defined to extend the model. Users can mix-and-match already implemented components to form large-scales ABMs, allowing them to quickly setup simulations and easily compare scenarios without the need to program. The dynamic agent composition provides a natural simulation space over which ABMs of networked structures are represented, facilitating their implementation; and verification and validation of models is facilitated by quickly setting up alternative simulations.

A parallel approach to social network generation and agent-based epidemic simulation

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is essential in contexts such as estimating load on medical services, as well as risk assessment and interven- tion policies against large-scale epidemic outbreaks. However, most of the information is available after the outbreak itself, and preemptive assessment is far from trivial. Here, we report on an agent-based model developed to investigate such epidemic events in a stylised urban environment. For most diseases, infection of a new individual may occur from casual contact in crowds as well as from repeated interactions with social partners such as work colleagues or family members. Our model therefore accounts for these two phenomena. Given the scale of the system, efficient parallel computing is required. In this presentation, we focus on aspects related to paralllelisation for large networks generation and massively multi-agent simulations.