A model for determining the optimal project life span and concession period of BOT projects

The concession agreement is the core feature of BOT projects, with the concession period being the most essential feature in determining the time span of the various rights, obligations and responsibilities of the government and concessionaire. Concession period design is therefore crucial for financial viability and determining the benefit/cost allocation between the host government and the concessionaire. However, while the concession period and project life span are essentially interdependent, most methods to date consider their determination as contiguous events that are determined exogenously. Moreover, these methods seldom consider the, often uncertain, social benefits and costs involved that are critical in defining, pricing and distributing benefits and costs between the various parties and evaluating potentially distributable cash flows. In this paper, we present the results of the first stage of a research project aimed at determining the optimal build-operate-transfer (BOT) project life span and concession period endogenously and interdependently by maximizing the combined benefits of stakeholders. Based on the estimation of the economic and social development involved, a negotiation space of the concession period interval is obtained, with its lower boundary creating the desired financial return for the private investors and its upper boundary ensuring the economic feasibility of the host government as well as the maximized welfare within the project life. The outcome of the new quantitative model is considered as a suitable basis for future field trials prior to implementation. The structure and details of the model are provided in the paper with Hong Kong tunnel project as a case study to demonstrate its detailed application. The basic contributions of the paper to the theory of construction procurement are that the project life span and concession period are determined jointly and the social benefits taken into account in the examination of project financial benefits. In practical terms, the model goes beyond the current practice of linear-process thinking and should enable engineering consultants to provide project information more rationally and accurately to BOT project bidders and increase the government's prospects of successfully entering into a contract with a concessionaire. This is expected to generate more negotiation space for the government and concessionaire in determining the major socioeconomic features of individual BOT contracts when negotiating the concession period. As a result, the use of the model should increase the total benefit to both parties.

Computational methods for the prediction of the structure and interactions of coiled-coil peptides

The past several years have seen significant advances in the development of computational methods for the prediction of the structure and interactions of coiled-coil peptides. These methods are generally based on pairwise correlations of amino acids, helical propensity, thermal melts and the energetics of sidechain interactions, as well as statistical patterns based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques. These methods are complemented by a number of public databases that contain sequences, motifs, domains and other details of coiled-coil structures identified by various algorithms. Some of these computational methods have been developed to make predictions of coiled-coil structure on the basis of sequence information; however, structural predictions of the oligomerisation state of these peptides still remains largely an open question due to the dynamic behaviour of these molecules. This review focuses on existing in silico methods for the prediction of coiled-coil peptides of functional importance using sequence and/or three-dimensional structural data.

Recent progress on synthesis, multi-scale structure, and properties of Y-Si-O oxides

Yttrium silicates (Y-Si-O oxides), including Y2Si2O7, Y2SiO5, and Y4·67(SiO4)3O apatite, have attracted wide attentions from material scientists and engineers, because of their extensive polymorphisms and important roles as grain boundary phases in improving the high-temperature mechanical/thermal properties of Si3N4and SiC ceramics. Recent interest in these materials has been renewed by their potential applications as high-temperature structural ceramics, oxidation protective coatings, and environmental barrier coatings (EBCs). The salient properties of Y-Si-O oxides are strongly related to their unique chemical bonds and microstructure features. An in-depth understanding on the synthesis - multi-scale structure-property relationships of the Y-Si-O oxides will shine a light on their performance and potential applications. In this review, recent progress of the synthesis, multi-scale structures, and properties of the Y-Si-O oxides are summarised. First, various methods for the synthesis of Y-Si-O ceramics in the forms of powders, bulks, and thin films/coatings are reviewed. Then, the crystal structures, chemical bonds, and atomic microstructures of the polymorphs in the Y-Si-O system are summarised. The third section focuses on the properties of Y-Si-O oxides, involving the mechanical, thermal, dielectric, and tribological properties, their environmental stability, and their structure-property relationships. The outlook for potential applications of Y-Si-O oxides is also highlighted.

Lowering grain boundary resistance of BaZr0.8Y0.2O3−δ with LiNO3 sintering-aid improves proton conductivity for fuel cell operation

A novel sintering additive based on LiNO3 was used to overcome the drawbacks of poor sinterability and low grain boundary conductivity in BaZr0.8Y0.2O3-δ (BZY20) protonic conductors. The Li-additive totally evaporated during the sintering process at 1600°C for 6 h, which led to highly dense BZY20 pellets (96.5% of the theoretical value). The proton conductivity values of BZY20 with Li sintering-aid were significantly larger than the values reported for BZY sintered with other metal oxides, due to the fast proton transport in the "clean" grain boundaries and grain interior. The total conductivity of BZY20-Li in wet Ar was 4.45 × 10-3 S cm-1 at 600°C. Based on the improved sinterability, anode-supported fuel cells with 25 μm-thick BZY20-Li electrolyte membranes were fabricated by a co-firing technique. The peak power density obtained at 700°C for a BZY-Ni/BZY20-Li/La0.6Sr0.4Co0.2Fe 0.8O3-δ (LSCF)-BZY cell was 53 mW cm-2, which is significantly larger than the values reported for fuel cells using electrolytes made of BZY sintered with the addition of ZnO and CuO, confirming the advantage of using Li as a sintering aid.

Identification methods of key contributing factors in crashes with high numbers of fatalities and injuries in China

Objectives In China, “serious road traffic crashes” (SRTCs) are those in which there are 10-30 fatalities, 50-100 serious injuries or a total cost of 50-100 million RMB ($US8-16m), and “particularly serious road traffic crashes” (PSRTCs) are those which are more severe or costly. Due to the large number of fatalities and injuries as well as the negative public reaction they elicit, SRTCs and PSRTCs have become great concerns to China during recent years. The aim of this study is to identify the main factors contributing to these road traffic crashes and to propose preventive measures to reduce their number. Methods 49 contributing factors of the SRTCs and PSRTCs that occurred from 2007 to 2013 were collected from the database “In-depth Investigation and Analysis System for Major Road traffic crashes” (IIASMRTC) and were analyzed through the integrated use of principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to determine the primary and secondary groups of contributing factors. Results Speeding and overloading of passengers were the primary contributing factors, featuring in up to 66.3% and 32.6% of accidents respectively. Two secondary contributing factors were road-related: lack of or nonstandard roadside safety infrastructure, and slippery roads due to rain, snow or ice. Conclusions The current approach to SRTCs and PSRTCs is focused on the attribution of responsibility and the enforcement of regulations considered relevant to particular SRTCs and PSRTCs. It would be more effective to investigate contributing factors and characteristics of SRTCs and PSRTCs as a whole, to provide adequate information for safety interventions in regions where SRTCs and PSRTCs are more common. In addition to mandating of a driver training program and publicisation of the hazards associated with traffic violations, implementation of speed cameras, speed signs, markings and vehicle-mounted GPS are suggested to reduce speeding of passenger vehicles, while increasing regular checks by traffic police and passenger station staff, and improving transportation management to increase income of contractors and drivers are feasible measures to prevent overloading of people. Other promising measures include regular inspection of roadside safety infrastructure, and improving skid resistance on dangerous road sections in mountainous areas.

Instagrammatics and digital methods: Studying visual social media, from selfies and GIFs to memes and emoji

Visual content is a critical component of everyday social media, on platforms explicitly framed around the visual (Instagram and Vine), on those offering a mix of text and images in myriad forms (Facebook, Twitter, and Tumblr), and in apps and profiles where visual presentation and provision of information are important considerations. However, despite being so prominent in forms such as selfies, looping media, infographics, memes, online videos, and more, sociocultural research into the visual as a central component of online communication has lagged behind the analysis of popular, predominantly text-driven social media. This paper underlines the increasing importance of visual elements to digital, social, and mobile media within everyday life, addressing the significant research gap in methods for tracking, analysing, and understanding visual social media as both image-based and intertextual content. In this paper, we build on our previous methodological considerations of Instagram in isolation to examine further questions, challenges, and benefits of studying visual social media more broadly, including methodological and ethical considerations. Our discussion is intended as a rallying cry and provocation for further research into visual (and textual and mixed) social media content, practices, and cultures, mindful of both the specificities of each form, but also, and importantly, the ongoing dialogues and interrelations between them as communication forms.

Author response: "Missed opportunity related to statistical methods"

"We thank MrGilder for his considered comments and suggestions for alternative analyses of our data. We also appreciate Mr Gilder’s support of our call for larger studies to contribute to the evidence base for preoperative loading with high-carbohydrate fluids..."

If dung beetles (Scarabaeidae: Scarabaeinae) arose in association with dinosaurs, did they also suffer a mass co-extinction at the K-Pg boundary?

The evolutionary success of beetles and numerous other terrestrial insects is generally attributed to co-radiation with flowering plants but most studies have focused on herbivorous or pollinating insects. Non-herbivores represent a significant proportion of beetle diversity yet potential factors that influence their diversification have been largely unexamined. In the present study, we examine the factors driving diversification within the Scarabaeidae, a speciose beetle family with a range of both herbivorous and non-herbivorous ecologies. In particular, it has been long debated whether the key event in the evolution of dung beetles (Scarabaeidae: Scarabaeinae) was an adaptation to feeding on dinosaur or mammalian dung. Here we present molecular evidence to show that the origin of dung beetles occurred in the middle of the Cretaceous, likely in association with dinosaur dung, but more surprisingly the timing is consistent with the rise of the angiosperms. We hypothesize that the switch in dinosaur diet to incorporate more nutritious and less fibrous angiosperm foliage provided a palatable dung source that ultimately created a new niche for diversification. Given the well-accepted mass extinction of non-avian dinosaurs at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, we examine a potential co-extinction of dung beetles due to the loss of an important evolutionary resource, i.e., dinosaur dung. The biogeography of dung beetles is also examined to explore the previously proposed "out of Africa" hypothesis. Given the inferred age of Scarabaeinae as originating in the Lower Cretaceous, the major radiation of dung feeders prior to the Cenomanian, and the early divergence of both African and Gondwanan lineages, we hypothesise that that faunal exchange between Africa and Gondwanaland occurred during the earliest evolution of the Scarabaeinae. Therefore we propose that both Gondwanan vicariance and dispersal of African lineages is responsible for present day distribution of scarabaeine dung beetles and provide examples.