Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same region.

Designs for phase I clinical trials with multiple courses of subjects at different doses

The goal of this article is to provide a new design framework and its corresponding estimation for phase I trials. Existing phase I designs assign each subject to one dose level based on responses from previous subjects. Yet it is possible that subjects with neither toxicity nor efficacy responses can be treated at higher dose levels, and their subsequent responses to higher doses will provide more information. In addition, for some trials, it might be possible to obtain multiple responses (repeated measures) from a subject at different dose levels. In this article, a nonparametric estimation method is developed for such studies. We also explore how the designs of multiple doses per subject can be implemented to improve design efficiency. The gain of efficiency from "single dose per subject" to "multiple doses per subject" is evaluated for several scenarios. Our numerical study shows that using "multiple doses per subject" and the proposed estimation method together increases the efficiency substantially.

Decision-theoretic designs for dose-finding clinical trials with multiple outcomes

A decision-theoretic framework is proposed for designing sequential dose-finding trials with multiple outcomes. The optimal strategy is solvable theoretically via backward induction. However, for dose-finding studies involving k doses, the computational complexity is the same as the bandit problem with k-dependent arms, which is computationally prohibitive. We therefore provide two computationally compromised strategies, which is of practical interest as the computational complexity is greatly reduced: one is closely related to the continual reassessment method (CRM), and the other improves CRM and approximates to the optimal strategy better. In particular, we present the framework for phase I/II trials with multiple outcomes. Applications to a pediatric HIV trial and a cancer chemotherapy trial are given to illustrate the proposed approach. Simulation results for the two trials show that the computationally compromised strategy can perform well and appear to be ethical for allocating patients. The proposed framework can provide better approximation to the optimal strategy if more extensive computing is available.

A genetic variant of MDM4 influences regulation by multiple microRNAs in prostate cancer

The oncogene MDM4, also known as MDMX or HDMX, contributes to cancer susceptibility and progression through its capacity to negatively regulate a range of genes with tumour-suppressive functions. As part of a recent genome-wide association study it was determined that the A-allele of the rs4245739 SNP (A>C), located in the 3'-UTR of MDM4, is associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer. Computational predictions revealed that the rs4245739 SNP is located within a predicted binding site for three microRNAs (miRNAs): miR-191-5p, miR-887 and miR-3669. Herein, we show using reporter gene assays and endogenous MDM4 expression analyses that miR-191-5p and miR-887 have a specific affinity for the rs4245739 SNP C-allele in prostate cancer. These miRNAs do not affect MDM4 mRNA levels, rather they inhibit its translation in C-allele-containing PC3 cells but not in LNCaP cells homozygous for the A-allele. By analysing gene expression datasets from patient cohorts, we found that MDM4 is associated with metastasis and prostate cancer progression and that targeting this gene with miR-191-5p or miR-887 decreases in PC3 cell viability. This study is the first, to our knowledge, to demonstrate regulation of the MDM4 rs4245739 SNP C-allele by two miRNAs in prostate cancer, and thereby to identify a mechanism by which the MDM4 rs4245739 SNP A-allele may be associated with an increased risk for prostate cancer.

Estimation of growth parameters from multiple-recapture data

This article develops a method for analysis of growth data with multiple recaptures when the initial ages for all individuals are unknown. The existing approaches either impute the initial ages or model them as random effects. Assumptions about the initial age are not verifiable because all the initial ages are unknown. We present an alternative approach that treats all the lengths including the length at first capture as correlated repeated measures for each individual. Optimal estimating equations are developed using the generalized estimating equations approach that only requires the first two moment assumptions. Explicit expressions for estimation of both mean growth parameters and variance components are given to minimize the computational complexity. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed method works well. Two real data sets are analyzed for illustration, one from whelks (Dicathais aegaota) and the other from southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) in South Australia.

Workplace belongingness, psychological distress and resilience in emergency service workers

- Objective Ambulance personnel provide emergency medical services to the community, often attending to highly challenging and traumatic scenes in complex and chaotic circumstances. Currently the assessment of predictors of psychological well-being remains limited. The current study investigated whether workplace belongingness was significant in predicting psychological distress as well as the presence of resilience in ambulance personnel whilst controlling for more routinely examined factors. - Method Australian ambulance officers (N = 740) completed a survey battery including the Kessler 10 (Kessler & Mroczek, 1994), Brief Resilience Scale (Smith et al., 2008) and Psychological Sense of Organisational Membership (Cockshaw & Shochet, 2010) scale. - Results Controlling for more commonly examined factors such as severity of trauma exposure and length of service, hierarchical multiple regression analyses demonstrated that workplace belongingness was significantly associated with reduced distress levels and enhanced resilience levels. - Conclusions Results suggest that strategies to enhance a sense of workplace belongingness in emergency service organisations could promote the well-being of emergency workers despite routine exposure to potentially traumatic events.

Microgrid frequency control using multiple battery energy storage system (BESSs)

The work is a report of research on using multiple inverters of Battery Energy Storage Systems with angle droop controllers to share real power in an isolated micro grid system consisting of inertia based Distributed Generation units and variable load. The proposed angle droop control method helps to balance the supply and demand in the micro grid autonomous mode through charging and discharging of the Battery Energy Storage Systems while ensuring that the state of charge of the storage devices is within safe operating conditions. The proposed method is also studied for its effectiveness for frequency control. The proposed control system is verified and its performance validated with simulation software MATLAB/SIMULINK.

Multidisciplinary review of teaching and assessing competency attainment by non-medical prescribers

Background Prescribing is a complex task, requiring specific knowledge and skills, and the execution of effective, context-specific clinical reasoning. Systematic reviews indicate medical prescribing errors have a median rate of 7% [IQR 2%-14%] of medication orders [1-3]. For podiatrists pursuing prescribing rights, a clear need exists to ensure practitioners develop a well-defined set of prescribing skills, which will contribute to competent, safe and appropriate practice. Aim To investigate the methods employed to teach and assess the principles of effective prescribing in the undergraduate podiatry program and compare and contrast these findings with four other non-medical professions who undertake prescribing after training at Queensland University of Technology. Method The NPS National Prescribing Competency Standards were employed as the prescribing standard. A curriculum mapping exercise was undertaken to determine whether the prescribing principles articulated in the competency standards were addressed by each profession. Results A range of methods are currently utilised to teach prescribing across disciplines. Application of prescribing competencies to the context of each profession appears to influence the teaching methods used. Most competencies were taught using a multimodal format, including interactive lectures, self-directed learning, tutorial sessions and clinical placement. In particular clinical training was identified as the most consistent form of educating safe prescribers across all five disciplines. Assessment of prescribing competency utilised multiple techniques including written and oral examinations and research tasks, case studies, objective structured clinical examination exercises and the assessment of clinical practice. Effective and reliable assessment of prescribing undertaken by students in diverse settings remains challenging e.g. that occurring in the clinical practice environment. Conclusion Recommendations were made to refine curricula and to promote efficient cross-discipline teaching by staff from the disciplines of podiatry, pharmacy, nurse practitioner, optometry and paramedic science. Students now experience a sophisticated level of multidisciplinary learning in the clinical setting which integrates the expertise and skills of experience prescribers combined with innovative information technology platforms (CCTV and live patient assessments). Further work is required to establish a practical, effective approach to the assessment of prescribing competence especially between the university and clinical settings.

A near Optimal Cane Rail Scheduler under Limited and Unlimited Capacity Constraints

Australia is the world’s third largest exporter of raw sugar after Brazil and Thailand, with around $2.0 billion in export earnings. Transport systems play a vital role in the raw sugar production process by transporting the sugarcane crop between farms and mills. In 2013, 87 per cent of sugarcane was transported to mills by cane railway. The total cost of sugarcane transport operations is very high. Over 35% of the total cost of sugarcane production in Australia is incurred in cane transport. A cane railway network mainly involves single track sections and multiple track sections used as passing loops or sidings. The cane railway system performs two main tasks: delivering empty bins from the mill to the sidings for filling by harvesters; and collecting the full bins of cane from the sidings and transporting them to the mill. A typical locomotive run involves an empty train (locomotive and empty bins) departing from the mill, traversing some track sections and delivering bins at specified sidings. The locomotive then, returns to the mill, traversing the same track sections in reverse order, collecting full bins along the way. In practice, a single track section can be occupied by only one train at a time, while more than one train can use a passing loop (parallel sections) at a time. The sugarcane transport system is a complex system that includes a large number of variables and elements. These elements work together to achieve the main system objectives of satisfying both mill and harvester requirements and improving the efficiency of the system in terms of low overall costs. These costs include delay, congestion, operating and maintenance costs. An effective cane rail scheduler will assist the traffic officers at the mill to keep a continuous supply of empty bins to harvesters and full bins to the mill with a minimum cost. This paper addresses the cane rail scheduling problem under rail siding capacity constraints where limited and unlimited siding capacities were investigated with different numbers of trains and different train speeds. The total operating time as a function of the number of trains, train shifts and a limited number of cane bins have been calculated for the different siding capacity constraints. A mathematical programming approach has been used to develop a new scheduler for the cane rail transport system under limited and unlimited constraints. The new scheduler aims to reduce the total costs associated with the cane rail transport system that are a function of the number of bins and total operating costs. The proposed metaheuristic techniques have been used to find near optimal solutions of the cane rail scheduling problem and provide different possible solutions to avoid being stuck in local optima. A numerical investigation and sensitivity analysis study is presented to demonstrate that high quality solutions for large scale cane rail scheduling problems are obtainable in a reasonable time. Keywords: Cane railway, mathematical programming, capacity, metaheuristics

Complex symbolic sequence clustering and multiple classifiers for predictive process monitoring

This paper addresses the following predictive business process monitoring problem: Given the execution trace of an ongoing case,and given a set of traces of historical (completed) cases, predict the most likely outcome of the ongoing case. In this context, a trace refers to a sequence of events with corresponding payloads, where a payload consists of a set of attribute-value pairs. Meanwhile, an outcome refers to a label associated to completed cases, like, for example, a label indicating that a given case completed “on time” (with respect to a given desired duration) or “late”, or a label indicating that a given case led to a customer complaint or not. The paper tackles this problem via a two-phased approach. In the first phase, prefixes of historical cases are encoded using complex symbolic sequences and clustered. In the second phase, a classifier is built for each of the clusters. To predict the outcome of an ongoing case at runtime given its (uncompleted) trace, we select the closest cluster(s) to the trace in question and apply the respective classifier(s), taking into account the Euclidean distance of the trace from the center of the clusters. We consider two families of clustering algorithms – hierarchical clustering and k-medoids – and use random forests for classification. The approach was evaluated on four real-life datasets.

Soliciting additional concerns in the primary care consultation and the utility of a brief communication intervention to aid solicitation: A qualitative study

Objective To investigate the perspectives of general practitioners (GPs) on the practice of soliciting additional concerns (ACs) and the acceptability and utility of two brief interventions (prompts) designed to aid the solicitation. Methods Eighteen GPs participating in a feasibility randomised controlled trial were interviewed. Interviews were semi-structured and audio-recorded. Data were analysed using a Framework Approach. Results Participants perceived eliciting ACs as important for: reducing the need for multiple visits, identifying serious illness early, and increasing patient and GP satisfaction. GPs found the prompts easy to use and some continued their use after the study had ended to aid time management. Others noted similarities between the intervention and their usual practice. Nevertheless, soliciting ACs in every consultation was not unanimously supported. Conclusion The prompts were acceptable to GPs within a trial context, but there was disagreement as to whether ACs should be solicited routinely. Some GPs considered the intervention to aid their prioritisation efficiency within consultations. Practice implications Some GPs will find prompts which encourage ACs to be solicited early in the consultation enable them to better organise priorities and manage time-limited consultations more effectively.

Mathematics, programming, and STEM

Learning mathematics is a complex and dynamic process. In this paper, the authors adopt a semiotic framework (Yeh & Nason, 2004) and highlight programming as one of the main aspects of the semiosis or meaning-making for the learning of mathematics. During a 10-week teaching experiment, mathematical meaning-making was enriched when primary students wrote Logo programs to create 3D virtual worlds. The analysis of results found deep learning in mathematics, as well as in technology and engineering areas. This prompted a rethinking about the nature of learning mathematics and a need to employ and examine a more holistic learning approach for the learning in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) areas.

A coupled SPH-DEM approach to model the interactions between multiple red blood cells in motion in capillaries

Red blood cells (RBCs) are the most common type of blood cells in the blood and 99% of the blood cells are RBCs. During the circulation of blood in the cardiovascular network, RBCs squeeze through the tiny blood vessels (capillaries). They exhibit various types of motions and deformed shapes, when flowing through these capillaries with diameters varying between 5 10 µm. RBCs occupy about 45 % of the whole blood volume and the interaction between the RBCs directly influences on the motion and the deformation of the RBCs. However, most of the previous numerical studies have explored the motion and deformation of a single RBC when the interaction between RBCs has been neglected. In this study, motion and deformation of two 2D (two-dimensional) RBCs in capillaries are comprehensively explored using a coupled smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and discrete element method (DEM) model. In order to clearly model the interactions between RBCs, only two RBCs are considered in this study even though blood with RBCs is continuously flowing through the blood vessels. A spring network based on the DEM is employed to model the viscoelastic membrane of the RBC while the inside and outside fluid of RBC is modelled by SPH. The effect of the initial distance between two RBCs, membrane bending stiffness (Kb) of one RBC and undeformed diameter of one RBC on the motion and deformation of both RBCs in a uniform capillary is studied. Finally, the deformation behavior of two RBCs in a stenosed capillary is also examined. Simulation results reveal that the interaction between RBCs has significant influence on their motion and deformation.