Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Characteristics of on-road driving by persons with central vision loss: Learning to drive with a bioptic telescope

There is limited research on the driving performance and safety of bioptic drivers and even less regarding the driving skills that are most challenging for those learning to drive with bioptic telescopes. This research consisted of case studies of five trainee bioptic drivers whose driving skills were compared with those of a group of licensed bioptic drivers (n = 23) while they drove along city, suburban, and controlled-access highways in an instrumented dual-brake vehicle. A certified driver rehabilitation specialist was positioned in the front passenger seat to monitor safety and two backseat evaluators independently rated driving using a standardized scoring system. Other aspects of performance were assessed through vehicle instrumentation and video recordings. Results demonstrate that while sign recognition, lane keeping, steering steadiness, gap judgments and speed choices were significantly worse in trainees, some driving behaviors and skills, including pedestrian detection and traffic light recognition were not significantly different to those of the licensed drivers. These data provide useful insights into the skill challenges encountered by a small sample of trainee bioptic drivers which, while not generalizable because of the small sample size, provide valuable insights beyond that of previous studies and can be used as a basis to guide training strategies.

Students' responses to the RACQ docudrama program

Young people are over-represented in road crashes and school-based education programs, including the RACQ Docudrama program, represent initiatives aimed at improving road safety among this high-risk group. The aim of the study was to apply an extended Theory of Planned Behaviour framework to understand more about the extent to which the program influenced individuals‟ intentions to speak up to a driver engaging in risky behaviours (e.g., speeding). Senior high school students (N=260) from 5 Queensland schools completed a survey in class. The study included a Control group (n = 86) who responded to the survey prior to completing the Docudrama program and an Intervention group comprising an Intervention-Immediate (n=100) and an Intervention-Delayed group (n = 74) who completed the survey after having participated in the program either on the day or up to a week later, respectively. Overall, the findings provided support for the beneficial effects of the program. Some of the study’s key findings included: (i) Intervention group participants consistently reported significantly stronger intentions to speak up than participants in the control group; (ii) among the significant predictors of intentions, a notable finding was that the more individuals anticipated feeling regretful for not having spoken up to a risky driver, the stronger their intentions were to speak up, and; (iii) the level of fear reported by students significantly decreased and was lowest at the conclusion of the program, following facilitated group discussion. The implications of the results for future research, program development and practice are discussed.

The trend toward pre-graduation professional work experience for Australian young planners: Essential experience or essentially exploitation

This paper explores the changing employment expectations that frame the early professional work experiences of young planners in Australia. In particular, it considers the rising popularity of pre-graduation professional work experience as a precursor to formal entry into the workforce as a practising planner. This shift is being driven in part by employer expectations that graduates will already have ‘real world’ and relevant work experience. However, an equally significant driver appears to be a growing desire for early career and graduate planners to find ways to distinguish themselves from their peers in an increasingly tight labour market. Using data from an ongoing research project into the formative work experiences of young people this paper describes the three main types of pre-graduation professional work experience undertaken by young planners. It highlights the potential challenges and benefits of pre-graduation work experience from a legal, social and ethical perspective as well as from the perspective of young planners themselves. The paper concludes by reflecting on the role of the planning profession – employers, peak bodies and planning educators – in managing the tensions between producing ‘work ready’ graduates and safeguarding the employment conditions of early career planning professionals.

Prevalence and characteristics of road traffic injuries among young drivers in Oman, 2009-2011

Objectives Studies from different parts of the world have indicated that the impact of road traffic incidents disproportionally affects young adults. Few known studies have been forthcoming from Arabian Gulf countries. Within Oman, a high proportion of the population is under the age of 20. Coupled with the drastic increase of motorization in recent years there is a need to understand the state of road safety among young people in Oman. The current research aimed to explore the prevalence and characteristics of road traffic injuries among young drivers aged 17-25 years. Methods Crash data from 2009-2011 was extracted from the Directorate General of Traffic, Royal Oman Police (ROP) database in Oman. The data was analyzed to explore the impact of road crashes on young people (17-25 years), the characteristics of young driver crashes and how these differ from older drivers and to identify key predictors of fatalities in young driver crashes. Results Overall, young people were over-represented in injuries and fatalities within the sample time period. While it is true that many young people in crashes were driving at the time, it was also evident that young people were often a victim in a crash caused by someone else. Thus, to reduce the impact of road crashes on young people, there is a need to generally address road safety within Oman. When young drivers were involved in crashes they were predominantly male. The types of crashes these drivers have can be broadly attributed to risk taking and inexperience. Speeding and night time driving were the key risk factors for fatalities. Conclusion The results highlight the need to address young driver safety in Oman. From these findings, the introduction of a graduated driver licensing system with night time driving restrictions could significantly improve young driver safety.

Worker views on safety at roadworks

Roadworks in live traffic environments are hazardous to workers and road users alike. In an increasing body of international research literature, roadwork risks and hazards have been comprehensively examined. As in the broader field of road safety research, much of the work rightly takes a quantitative approach to assessing risk and related issues and to addressing the identified risks appropriately. In Australia, however, limited official data constrains the ability of researchers to achieve an in-depth understanding of the situation at state/territory and national levels based on traditional quantitative analyses. One way to enhance and supplement the limited available data is to consult those who are directly involved in roadworks for qualitative information, although such an approach is rarely reported in the roadwork safety arena. As part of the major study focusing on safety at roadworks in Queensland, 66 workers were interviewed about their perceptions and experiences regarding roadwork safety. This paper thus outlines a qualitative examination of workers' perceptions of the causes of roadwork incidents and the effectiveness of hazard mitigation measures. Consistent with findings reported in the literature is the view among workers that speeding is a major hazard and that police enforcement is the most effective countermeasure. Other hazards commonly observed by workers but less frequently reported elsewhere include driver distraction and aggression toward workers, working in poor weather and working at night. Workers mostly suggested educational measures to address distraction and aggression issues, though such measures are only tentatively supported in the literature.

A road safety strategy for Norfolk Island, an Australian external territory

Norfolk Island is an Australian external territory in Oceania. The significant road safety reforms in Australia from the 1970s onward bypassed the island, and most road safety ‘silver bullets’ adopted in other Australian jurisdictions were not introduced. While legislative amendments in 2010 introduced mandatory seat belt wearing for vehicle occupants on Norfolk Island, other critical issues face the community including drink driving by residents and visitors, occupant protection for vehicle passengers, and the provision of a more protective road environment. The release of the first Norfolk Island road safety strategy 2014-2016 proposed, inter alia: • a lower BAC of 0.05 and the introduction of compulsory driver alcohol and drug testing by police; • targeted enforcement of occupant protection for vehicle passengers, particularly for passengers riding on vehicle tray backs; • education interventions to challenge values held by some members of the community that support unsafe road use; • ensuring that driver information, training and testing is adequate for all drivers; • identification and rectification of hazardous roadside infrastructure, particularly barrier protection at “high drop locations” within the road network; and • developing a specification for vehicle standards for vehicles imported into Norfolk Island. Norfolk Island is engaging in a process of integration with the Australian community, and wider issues relating to funding and resources have impacted on the implementation of the road safety strategy. The response to the strategy will be discussed, particularly in terms of current attempts to address drink driving and the provision of a safer road environment.

The impact of safety measures on the re-offence and crash rates of drink-driving offenders in Victoria

Alcohol is a major factor in road deaths and serious injuries. In Victoria, between 2008 and 2013, 30% of drivers killed were involved in alcohol-related crashes. From the early 1980s Victoria progressively introduced a series of measures, such as driver licence cancellation and alcohol interlocks, to reduce the level of drink-driving on Victoria's roads. This project tracked drink-driving offenders to measure and understand their re-offence and road trauma involvement levels during and after periods of licensing and driving interventions. The methodology controlled for exposure by aggregating crashes and traffic violations within relevant categories (e.g. licence cancelled/relicensed/relicensing not sought) and calculated as rates 'per thousand person-years'. Inferential statistical techniques were used to compare crash and offence rates between control and treatment groups across three distinct time periods, which coincided with the introduction of new interventions. This paper focuses on the extent to which the Victorian drink-driving measures have been successful in reducing re-offending and road trauma involvement during and after periods of licence interventions. It was found that a licence cancellation/ban is an effective drink-driving countermeasure as it reduced drink-driving offending and drink-driving crashes. Interlocks also had a positive effect on drink-driving offences as they were reduced during the interlock period as well as for the entire intervention period. Possible drink-driving policy implications are briefly discussed.

Drink driving among Indigenous people in Far North Queensland and northern New South Wales: A summary of the qualitative findings

Purpose In response to the threat that drink drivers pose to themselves and others, drink driving programs form an important part of a suite of countermeasures used in Australia and internationally. Unlike New Zealand/Aotearoa, United States and Canada that have programs catering for their First Peoples, all Australian programs are designed for the general driver population. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that contribute to Indigenous drink driving in order to inform appropriate recommendations related to developing a community-based program for Indigenous communities. Broader drivers licensing policy recommendations are also discussed. Methods A sample of 73 Indigenous people from Queensland and in New South Wales with one or more drink driving convictions completed a semi-structured interview in respect of the to their drink driving behaviour. Participants were asked to disclose information regarding their drink driving history, and alcohol and drug use. If participants self-reported no longer drink driving, they were probed about what factors had assisted them to avoid further offending. Results Key themes which emerged to maintain drink driving include motivations to drink and drive, and belief in the ability to manage the associated risks. Factors that appeared to support others from avoiding further offending include re-connecting with culture and family support. Conclusions and Implications A range of recommendations regarding delivery and content of a program for regional and remote communities as well as other policy implications are discussed.

Examining novice education: What can we learn from a compulsory program delivered to both mature-age and young pre-learner licence drivers?

This paper reports results from a qualitative evaluation of a compulsory pre-Learner driver education program within the Australian Capital Territory(ACT), Australia. Two methods were used to obtain feedback from those involved in the delivery of the program as well as those who participated in programs. The first, semi-structured interviews, was undertaken with class room teachers who run the program in their schools, group facilitators running the program with more mature-age students at private facilities (n = 15 in total), and former participants in both school-based and private-based versions of the program (n = 19). The second method used an on-line survey for students (n = 79). Results from both methods were consistent with each other, indicating that strengths of the program were perceived as being its interactive components and the high level of engagement of the target audience. There was strong support from young and mature-age students for the program to remain compulsory. However, consistent with other findings on novice driver education, mature-age participants identified that the program was less relevant to them. It may be that to have greater relevance to mature-age learners, content could address and challenge perceptions about behaviours other than intentional high-risk behaviours (e.g. low level speeding, fatigue) as well as encourage planning/strategies to avoid them. While a longer term, outcome focussed, evaluation of the pre-learner education program is needed, this study suggests that the program is well received by pre-licence drivers and that teachers and facilitators perceive it as both effective and beneficial.

Sharing social space with strangers: Setting, signalling and policing informal rules of driving etiquette

Recent research suggests that aggressive driving may be influenced by driver perceptions of their interactions with other drivers in terms of ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ behaviour. Drivers appear to take a moral standpoint on ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ driving behaviour. However, ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ in the context of road use is not defined solely by legislation, but includes informal rules that are sometimes termed ‘driving etiquette’. Driving etiquette has implications for road safety and public safety since breaches of both formal and informal rules may result in moral judgement of others and subsequent behaviours designed to punish the ‘offender’ or ‘teach them a lesson’. This paper outlines qualitative research that was undertaken with drivers to explore their understanding of driving etiquette and how they reacted to other drivers’ observance or violation of their understanding. The aim was to develop an explanatory framework within which the relationships between driving etiquette and aggressive driving could be understood, specifically moral judgement of other drivers and punishment of their transgression of driving etiquette. Thematic analysis of focus groups (n=10) generated three main themes: (1) courtesy and reciprocity, and the notion of two-way responsibility, with examples of how expectations of courteous behaviour vary according to the traffic interaction; (2) acknowledgement and shared social experience: ‘giving the wave’; and (3) responses to breaches of the expectations/informal rules. The themes are discussed in terms of their roles in an explanatory framework of the informal rules of etiquette and how interactions between drivers can reinforce or weaken a driver’s understanding of driver etiquette and potentially lead to driving aggression.

The shifting value of design in the Australian Architecture Industry

Architects regularly employ design as a problem-solving tool in the built environment. Within the design process, architects apply design thinking to reframe problems as opportunities, take advantage of contradictory information to develop new solutions, and differentiate outcomes based on context. This research aims to investigate how design can be better positioned to develop greater differentiated value to an architect’s current service offering, and how design as a strategy could be applied as a driver of business innovation within the Australian architecture industry. The research will explore literature relating to the future of architecture, the application of design thinking, and the benefits of strategic design. The future intent of the research is to develop strategies that improve the value offering of architects, and develop design led solutions that could be applied successfully to the business of architecture.

Security issues for future intelligent transport systems

Cooperative Intelligent Transportation Systems (C-ITS) allow in-vehicle systems, and ultimately the driver, to enhance their awareness of their surroundings by enabling communication between vehicles and road infrastructure. C-ITS are widely considered as the next major step in driving assistance systems, aiming at increasing safety, comfort and mobility for drivers. However, any communicating systems are subjected to security threats. A key component for providing secure communications at a large scale is a Public Key Infrastructure (PKI). Due to the safety-critical nature of Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communications, a C-ITS PKI has functional, performance and scalability requirements that differ from traditional non-automotive environments. This paper identifies and defines the key functional and security requirements for C-ITS PKI systems and analyses proposed C-ITS PKI standards against these requirements. In particular, the proposed US and European C-ITS PKI systems are identified as being too complex and not scalable. The paper also highlights various privacy, security and scalability concerns that should be considered for a secure C-ITS PKI solution in the Australian transport landscape.

The Australian naturalistic driving study: From beginnings to launch

The Australian Naturalistic Driving Study (ANDS), a ground-breaking study of Australian driver behaviour and performance, was officially launched on April 21st, 2015 at UNSW. The ANDS project will provide a realistic perspective on the causes of vehicle crashes and near miss crash events, along with the roles speeding, distraction and other factors have on such events. A total of 360 volunteer drivers across NSW and Victoria - 180 in NSW and 180 in Victoria - will be monitored by a Data Acquisition System (DAS) recording continuously for 4 months their driving behaviour using a suite of cameras and sensors. Participants’ driving behaviour (e.g. gaze), the behaviour of their vehicle (e.g. speed, lane position) and the behaviour of other road users with whom they interact in normal and safety-critical situations will be recorded. Planning of the ANDS commenced over two years ago in June 2013 when the Multi-Institutional Agreement for a grant supporting the equipment purchase and assembly phase was signed by parties involved in this large scale $4 million study (5 university accident research centres, 3 government regulators, 2 third party insurers and 2 industry partners). The program’s second development phase commenced a year later in June 2014 after a second grant was awarded. This paper presents an insider's view into that two year process leading up to the launch, and outlines issues that arose in the set-up phase of the study and how these were addressed. This information will be useful to other organisations considering setting up an NDS.

Observations of road safety behaviours and practices of motorcycle rickshaw drivers in Lahore, Pakistan

Motorcycle Rickshaws (MRs) are an informal paratransit mode in Pakistan. They are locally manufactured and very popular but there are concerns about their crash involvement and overall safety. The first study of the current PhD program revealed that rickshaws (both MRs and auto-rickshaws) were involved in 51,992 road crashes attended by emergency ambulances in Punjab province, Pakistan between 2011-2013. This study aims to examine the road safety behaviours and practices of Motorcycle Rickshaw Drivers (MRDs) that may be contributing to these crashes. MRDs were observed at 12 major signalised intersections in Lahore. Vehicle characteristics and driver behaviours were recorded using a paper-based survey between 9am-7pm for a full week in May 2015. Of the 500 MRDs observed, about 23.4% appeared to be younger than the minimum driver licensing age of 18 years. More than half (52.6%) of the MRDs entered on the red light and 17.4% crossed when the signal was turning from yellow to green or red. MR traffic conflicts were observed in 62.8% of cases and one crash and 15 near-miss crashes were witnessed. Additionally, about half of MRs were overloaded, no MRD wore a helmet, and 3.8% were using a mobile phone while driving. This study provides the first scientific evidence to substantiate public concerns regarding the safety of MRs. It demonstrates that about a quarter of MRDs are underage,almost half of MRs are overloaded and more than half disobey traffic signals. This research could inform authorities to manage MR related transport and road safety issues.