Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

The effect of transforming growth factor β1 gene polymorphisms in ankylosing spondylitis

Objectives. To determine whether genetic polymorphisms in or near the transforming growth factor β1 (TGFB1) locus were associated d with susceptibility to or severity of ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods. Five intragenic single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) and three microsatellite markers flanking the TGFB1 locus were genotyped. Seven hundred and sixty-two individuals from 184 multiplex families were genotyped for the microsatellite markers and two of the promoter SNPs. One thousand and two individuals from 212 English and 170 Finnish families with AS were genotyped for all five intragenic SNPs. A structured questionnaire was used to assess the age of symptom onset, disease duration and disease severity scores, including the BASDAI (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index) and BASFI (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index). Results. A weak association was noted between the rare TGFB1 + 1632 T allele and AS in the Finnish population (P = 0.04) and in the combined data set (P = 0.03). No association was noted between any other SNPs or SNP haplotype and AS, even among those families with positive non-parametric linkage scores. The TGFB1 +1632 polymorphism was also associated with a younger age of symptom onset (English population, allele 2 associated with age of onset greater by 4.2 yr, P = 0.05; combined data set, allele 2 associated with age of onset greater by 3.2 yr, P = 0.02). A haplotype of coding region SNPs (TGFB1 +869/ +915+1632 alleles 2/1/2) was associated with age of symptom onset in both the English parent-case trios and the combined data set (English data set, haplotype 2/1/2 associated with age of onset greater by 4.9 yr, P = 0.03; combined data set, haplotype 2/1/2 associated with greater age of onset by 4.2 yr, P = 0.006). Weak linkage with AS susceptibility was noted and the peak LOD score was 1.3 at distance 2 cM centromeric to the TGFB1 gene. No other linkage or association was found between quantitative traits and the markers. Conclusion. This study suggests that the polymorphisms within the TGFB1 gene play at most a small role in AS and that other genes encoded on chromosome 19 are involved in susceptibility to the disease.

Concordance of disease severity among family members with ankylosing spondylitis?

Objective. The heritability of disease activity and function in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) have been estimated at 0.51 and 0.63 (i.e., 51% and 63%), respectively. We examined the concordance of disease severity among family members in terms of disease activity, function, radiological change, prevalence of iritis, and juvenile onset. Methods. Disease activity and functional impairment due to AS were studied using the Bath AS Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) and Functional Index (BASFI) self-administered questionnaires; radiographic involvement was measured using the Bath AS Radiology Index (BASRI) scale. Familial correlation of BASDAI and BASFI was assessed in 406 families with 2 or more cases, using the program PAP. Parent-child and sibling-sibling concordance for iritis and juvenile AS were also studied in these families. Heritability of radiological disease severity based on the BASRI was assessed in 29 families containing 60 affected individuals using the program SOLAR. Results. Correlations between parent-child pairs for disease activity and function were 0.07 for both. Correlations between sibling pairs for disease activity and function were 0.27 and 0.36, respectively. The children of AS parents with iritis were more likely to develop iritis [27/71 (38%)] than children of non-iritis AS parents [13/70 (19%)] (p = 0.01). Parents with JAS were more likely to have children with JAS [17/30 (57%) compared to non-JAS parents 34/111 (30%)] (p = 0.002). The heritability of radiological disease severity based on the BASRI was 0.62. Conclusion. While correlation in severity between parent and child is poor, siblings do resemble each other in terms of severity, supporting the findings of segregation studies indicating significant genetic dominance in the heritable component of disease activity. Significant parent-child concordance for iritis and juvenile disease onset suggest that there are genetic risk factors for these traits independent of those determining the risk of AS itself. The finding of significant heritability of radiological change (BASRI) provides support using an objective measure for the observed heritability of the questionnaire-assessed disease severity scores, ASDAI and BASFI.

Interleukin 10 polymorphisms in ankylosing spondylitis

Genetic polymorphisms of the IL10 promoter region have been implicated in many autoimmune diseases, including seronegative spondyloarthropathies. We studied three SNPs (IL10-1087,-824, and -597) and two microsafellites(IL10R and IL10G) lying within the promoter region of IL10 for association with susceptibility to and clinical manifestations of ankylosing spondylitis (AS), a common form of spondyloarthritis. Four hundred and sixty-eight individuals from 182 Finnish families affected with AS were studied. No association between individual IL10 promoter region polymorphisms or marker haplotype was observed with susceptibility to AS, but weak association was noted between the IL10-597 and -824 SNPs and age of disease onset (P= 0.01 for each SNP). The IL10.G4 allele was associated with BASFI (corrected for disease duration) (P= 0.03). We conclude that IL10 promoter polymorphisms have no significant effect on susceptibility to AS, but may play a minor role in determining age of disease onset and disease severity. © 2003 Nature Publishing Group All rights reserved.

Value of total body potassium in assessing the nutritional status of children with end-stage liver disease

Malnutrition is a common problem in children with end-stage liver disease (ESLD), and accurate assessment of nutritional status is essential in managing these children. In a retrospective study, we compared nutritional assessment by anthropometry with that by body composition. We analyzed all consecutive measurements of total body potassium (TBK, n = 186) of children less than 3 years old with ESLD awaiting transplantation found in our database. The TBK values obtained by whole body counting of 40K were compared with reference TRK values of healthy children. The prevalence of malnutrition, as assessed by weight (weight Z score < -2) was 28%, which was significantly lower (chi-square test, p < 0.0001) than the prevalence of malnutrition (76%) assessed by TBK (< 90% of expected TRK for age). These results demonstrated that body weight underestimated the nutritional deficit and stressed the importance of measuring body composition as part of assessing nutritional status of children with ESLD.

Nutritional status of children with cystic fibrosis measured by total body potassium as a marker of body cell mass: Lack of sensitivity of anthropometric measures

Objective: To investigate measures aimed at defining the nutritional status of cystic fibrosis (CF) populations, this study compared standard anthropometric measurements and total body potassium (TBK) as indicators of malnutrition. Methods: Height, weight, and TBK measurements of 226 children with CF from Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia, were analyzed. Z scores for height for age, weight for age, and weight for height were analyzed by means of the National Centre for Health Statistics reference. TBK was measured by means of whole body counting and compared with predicted TBK for age. Two criteria were evaluated with respect to malnutrition: (1) a z score < -2.0 and (2) a TBK for age <80% of predicted. Results: Males and females with CF had lower mean height-for-age and weight-for-age z scores than the National Centre for Health Statistics reference (P < .01), but mean weight-for-height z score was not significantly different. There were no significant gender differences. According to anthropometry, only 7.5% of this population were underweight and 7.6% were stunted. However, with TBK as an indicator of nutritional status, 29.9% of males and 22.0% of females were malnourished. Conclusion: There are large differences in the percentage of patients with CF identified as malnourished depending on whether anthropometry or body composition data are used as the nutritional indicator. At an individual level, weight-based indicators are not sensitive indicators of suboptimal nutritional status in CF, significantly underestimating the extent of malnutrition. Current recommendations in which anthropometry is used as the indicator of malnutrition in CF should be revised.

Growth hormone resistance and somatomedins in children with end-stage liver disease awaiting transplantation

Background: The success of orthotopic liver transplantation as treatment for end-stage liver disease has prompted investigation of strategies to maintain or improve nutrition and growth in children awaiting transplantation, because malnutrition is an adverse prognostic factor. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of recombinant human growth hormone therapy on body composition and indices of liver function in patients awaiting transplant. Methods: The study was designed as a placebo- controlled, double-blind, crossover trial. Patients received 0.2 U/kg growth hormone, subcutaneously, or placebo daily for 28 days during two treatment periods, separated by a 2-week washout period. Ten patients (mean age, 3.06 ± 1.15 years; range, 0.51-11.65 years, five men), with extrahepatic biliary atresia (n = 8) or two with Alagille's syndrome (n = 2), with end-stage liver disease, completed the trial while awaiting orthotopic liver transplantation. Height, weight, total body potassium, total body fat, resting energy expenditure, respiratory quotient, hematologic and multiple biochemical profile, number of albumin infusions, insulin-like growth factor-1 and 1, growth hormone binding protein (GHBP), and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1) and insulin-like growth factor binding protein (IGFBP-3) were measured at the beginning and end of each treatment period. Results: Growth hormone treatment was associated with a significant decline in serum bilirubin (-34.6 ± 16.5 μmol/l vs. 18.2 ± 11.59 μmol/l; p < 0.02) but there was no significant effect on any anthropometric or body composition measurements, or on any biochemical or hematologic parameters. Conclusions: These children with end-stage liver disease displayed growth hormone resistance, particularly in relation to the somatomedin axis. Exogenous growth hormone administration may be of limited value in these patients

Current treatment of Helicobacter pylori infection and peptic ulcer disease

Since the initial report by Warren and Marshall in 1984, Helicobacter pylori has assumed an increasingly important role in the pathogenesis of peptic ulcer disease and gastric carcinoma in all ages. A recent National Institutes of Health Consensus Development conference acknowledges the relationship between H. pylori infection and peptic ulcer disease and recommends that the medical community treat H. pylori infection in all patients with Helicobacter pylori and peptic ulcer. Although the same organism, the response to Helicobacter pylori infection in childhood differs somewhat from that seen in adults. The paediatric patient mounts a different inflammatory response, has different macroscopic appearances and has a markedly diminished peptic ulcer disease frequency compared with their adult counterparts. The appearances of antral nodularity appear to be characteristic of Helicobacter pylori infections. The appearances, however, are unrelated to symptoms and the underlying cause for this nodularity remains obscure. Younger children with peptic ulcer diseases are more likely to be Helicobacter pylori negative. This may suggest an increased susceptibility to gastric acid or possibly a very transient Helicobacter pylori infection rather than the well described lifelong infection without treatment. It is well known that the epidemiology of Helicobacter pylori would suggest that the incidence of infection increases with age. There is also geographical variations with the incidence being higher in countries of a third world background. These epidemiological observations fly in the face of all other infections where the major period of acquisition is in childhood. There has been recent evidence to suggest that in fact the incidence in childhood is decreasing in developed countries which could support the observation that there is a decreasing positive serology with successive decades in some countries. It is felt that the most likely mode of transmission of Helicobacter pylori is faecal to oral or oral to oral route. These are similar modes of transmission to Hepatitis A infections. It is obvious that most infections in childhood remain asymptomatic. It is also clear that there is no relationship between chronic recurrent abdominal pain of childhood syndrome and the presence of Helicobacter pylori infections. It remains to be seen as to who should be treated, what with and when. All of these issues will be discussed in the paper.

Nutritional support in children with end-stage liver disease : a randomized crossover trial of a branched-chain amino acid supplement

Malnutrition is common in children with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) awaiting orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT), and nutritional support is assuming an important role in preoperative management. To evaluate preoperative nutritional therapy, 19 children (median age 1.25 y) with ESLD awaiting OLT were prospectively studied. Two high-energy, isoenergetic and isonitrogenous nutritional formulations delivered nasogastrically were compared: a branched-chain amino acid (BCAA)-enriched semielemental formulation and a matched standard semielemental formulation. Twelve of 19 patients completed a randomized controlled study before OLT and 10 of 19 completed a full crossover study. Improvements in weight and height occurred during the BCAA supplements, with no statistical change on the standard formulation. Significant increases in total body potassium, midupper arm circumference, and subscapular skinfold thickness occurred during the BCAA supplements, whereas no significant changes occurred during the standard formulation period. Significantly fewer albumin infusions were required during the BCAA supplement. These findings suggest that BCAA-enriched formulas have advantages over standard semielemental formulas in improving nutritional status in children with ESLD. and are deserving of wider application and study.

The nature of malnutrition in children with end-stage liver disease awaiting orthotopic liver transplantation

To evaluate malnutrition in chronic liver disease, and its relationship to nutrient deficiencies and hepatic dysfunction. 27 children with end-stage liver disease were studied. Mean protein-energy intakes were 70% of recommended daily intakes. The patients were underweight and stunted with reduced mean triceps and subscapular skinfold thicknesses and midupper arm circumference. Mean total body potassium was only 63 ± 18% of that expected for age and sex. Deficiency of essential fatty acids (32%), and low concentrations of fat-soluble vitamins (A, 92%; E, 32%), iron (32%), zinc (42%), and selenium (13%) were common. Serum ammonia concentrations were raised in all patients, and increased methionine, tyrosine, and glutamic acid, and reduced glutamine concentrations were noted. There was no correlation between the degree of malnutrition and the degree of liver synthetic function, the degree of cholestasis, or the degree of liver injury. We suggest that potentially correctable factors in addition to liver failure (eg, inadequate absorbed intake) were important determinants of malnutrition in these patients.

Malnutrition in children with chronic liver disease accepted for liver transplantation : clinical profile and effect on outcome

The nutritional profiles of 37 children (aged 0.5-14.0 years) with chronic liver disease at the time of acceptance for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLTP) have been evaluated using clinical, biochemical and body composition methods. Nutritional progress while waiting for a donor has been related to outcome, whether transplanted or not. At the time of acceptance, most children were underweight (mean standard deviation (s.d.) weight = -1.4 ± 0.2) and stunted (mean s.d. height = - 2.2 ± 0.4), had low serum albumin (27/35) and had reduced body fat and depleted body cell mass (measured by total body potassium - mean % expected for age = 58 ± 5%, n = 15). Mean ad libitum nutrient intake was 63 ± 5% of recommended daily intake (RDI). Those who died while waiting (n = 8) had significantly lower mean initial s.d. weight compared with those transplanted. The overall actuarial 1 year survival of those who were transplanted (mean waiting time = 75 days) was 81% but those who were initially well nourished (s.d. weight >-1.0) had an actuarial 1 year survival of 100%. There were no significant differences in actuarial survival in relationship to age, type of transplant (whole liver or segmental), liver biochemistry or the presence or absence of ascites. Of the total group accepted for OLTP, whether transplanted or not, the overall 1 year survival for those who were relatively well nourished was 88% and for those undernourished (initial s.d. weight <-1.0) was 38% (P<0.003). Declining nutritional status during the waiting period also adversely affected outcome. We conclude that malnutrition and/or declining nutritional status is a major factor adversely affecting survival in children awaiting OLTP. In transplant units where waiting time is greater than 40 days, earlier referral, prioritization of cases and the use of adult donor livers may reduce this risk and efforts to maintain or improve nutritional status deserve further study.

Reduction in arterial wall strain with aggressive lipid-lowering therapy in patients with carotid artery disease

Background: Inflammation and biomechanical factors have been associated with the development of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques. Lipid-lowering therapy has been shown to be effective in stabilizing them by reducing plaque inflammation. Its effect on arterial wall strain, however, remains unknown. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of high- and low-dose lipid-lowering therapy using an HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor, atorvastatin, on arterial wall strain. Methods and Results: Forty patients with carotid stenosis >40% were successfully followed up during the Atorvastatin Therapy: Effects on Reduction Of Macrophage Activity (ATHEROMA; ISRCTN64894118) Trial. All patients had plaque inflammation as shown by intraplaque accumulation of ultrasmall super paramagnetic particles of iron oxide on magnetic resonance imaging at baseline. Structural analysis was performed and change of strain was compared between high- and low-dose statin at 0 and 12 weeks. There was no significant difference in strain between the 2 groups at baseline (P=0.6). At 12 weeks, the maximum strain was significantly lower in the 80-mg group than in the 10-mg group (0.085±0.033 vs. 0.169±0.084; P=0.001). A significant reduction (26%) of maximum strain was observed in the 80-mg group at 12 weeks (0.018±0.02; P=0.01). Conclusions: Aggressive lipid-lowering therapy is associated with a significant reduction in arterial wall strain. The reduction in biomechanical strain may be associated with reductions in plaque inflammatory burden.

Finite element analysis of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques: A comparison of mechanical stresses within carotid plaques of acute and recently symptomatic patients with carotid artery disease

Objectives: There is considerable evidence that patients with carotid artery stenosis treated immediately after the ischaemic cerebrovascular event have a better clinical outcome than those who have delayed treatment. Biomechanical assessment of carotid plaques using high-resolution MRI can help examine the relationship between the timing of carotid plaque symptomology and maximum simulated plaque stress concentration. Methods: Fifty patients underwent high-resolution multisequence in vivo MRI of their carotid arteries. Patients with acute symptoms (n=25) underwent MRI within 72 h of the onset of ischaemic cerebrovascular symptoms, whereas recently symptomatic patients (n=25) underwent MRI from 2 to 6 weeks after the onset of symptoms. Stress analysis was performed based on the geometry derived from in vivo MRI of the symptomatic carotid artery at the point of maximum stenosis. The peak stresses within the plaques of the two groups were compared. Results: Patient demographics were comparable for both groups. All the patients in the recently symptomatic group had severe carotid stenosis in contrast to patients with acute symptoms who had predominantly mild to moderate carotid stenosis. The simulated maximum stresses in patients with acute symptoms was significantly higher than in recently symptomatic patients (median (IQR): 313310 4 dynes/cm 2 (295 to 382) vs 2523104 dynes/cm 2 (236 to 311), p=0.02). Conclusions: Patients have extremely unstable, high-risk plaques, with high stresses, immediately after an acute cerebrovascular event, even at lower degrees of carotid stenoses. Biomechanical stress analysis may help us refine our risk-stratification criteria for the management of patients with carotid artery disease in future.

Pre-operative nutritional support in children with end-stage liver disease accepted for liver transplantation: An approach to management

Pre-operative nutritional support was studied in 28 children with end-stage liver disease awaiting orthotopic liver transplantation. Nasogastric supplemental administration of a standard semi-elemental enteral nutritional formula was compared with a similar formula enriched with branched chain amino acids, and with a group receiving oral nutrition only. The duration of treatment in all groups was similar (mean 90 days). Energy intakes in the supplemented groups were 120-150% of recommended daily intakes (RDI), whereas ad libitum intakes in the oral group ranged 58-100% RDI. A significant improvement in mean Z-score for body weight (denoting catch-up) was noted only in those children who received nasogastric supplements enriched with branched-chain amino acids. The standard enterally-fed group maintained their body weight and Z-scores did not change significantly. In contrast, body weight Z-scores in those fed orally declined significantly. Nutritional supportive therapy of malnourished children with end-stage liver disease can minimize or improve nutritional status in children awaiting liver transplantation. The use of nutritional formulae rich in branche-chain amino acids may have nutritional advantages in children with chronic liver disease which require further study and evaluation.