Systematic and Day-to-Day Effects of Chemical-Derived Population Estimates on Wastewater-Based Drug Epidemiology

Population size is crucial when estimating population-normalized drug consumption (PNDC) from wastewater-based drug epidemiology (WBDE). Three conceptually different population estimates can be used: de jure (common census, residence), de facto (all persons within a sewer catchment), and chemical loads (contributors to the sampled wastewater). De facto and chemical loads will be the same where all households contribute to a central sewer system without wastewater loss. This study explored the feasibility of determining a de facto population and its effect on estimating PNDC in an urban community over an extended period. Drugs and other chemicals were analyzed in 311 daily composite wastewater samples. The daily estimated de facto population (using chemical loads) was on average 32% higher than the de jure population. Consequently, using the latter would systemically overestimate PNDC by 22%. However, the relative day-to-day pattern of drug consumption was similar regardless of the type of normalization as daily illicit drug loads appeared to vary substantially more than the population. Using chemical loads population, we objectively quantified the total methodological uncertainty of PNDC and reduced it by a factor of 2. Our study illustrated the potential benefits of using chemical loads population for obtaining more robust PNDC data in WBDE.

A Model to Estimate the Population Contributing to the Wastewater Using Samples Collected on Census Day

An important uncertainty when estimating per capita consumption of, for example, illicit drugs by means of wastewater analysis (sometimes referred to as “sewage epidemiology”) relates to the size and variability of the de facto population in the catchment of interest. In the absence of a day-specific direct population count any indirect surrogate model to estimate population size lacks a standard to assess associated uncertainties. Therefore, the objective of this study was to collect wastewater samples at a unique opportunity, that is, on a census day, as a basis for a model to estimate the number of people contributing to a given wastewater sample. Mass loads for a wide range of pharmaceuticals and personal care products were quantified in influents of ten sewage treatment plants (STP) serving populations ranging from approximately 3500 to 500 000 people. Separate linear models for population size were estimated with the mass loads of the different chemical as the explanatory variable: 14 chemicals showed good, linear relationships, with highest correlations for acesulfame and gabapentin. De facto population was then estimated through Bayesian inference, by updating the population size provided by STP staff (prior knowledge) with measured chemical mass loads. Cross validation showed that large populations can be estimated fairly accurately with a few chemical mass loads quantified from 24-h composite samples. In contrast, the prior knowledge for small population sizes cannot be improved substantially despite the information of multiple chemical mass loads. In the future, observations other than chemical mass loads may improve this deficit, since Bayesian inference allows including any kind of information relating to population size.

Synthesis of a multimodal molecular imaging probe based on a hyperbranched polymer architecture

Molecular imaging is utilised in modern medicine to aid in the diagnosis and treatment of disease by allowing its spatiotemporal state to be examined in vivo. This study focuses on the development of novel multimodal molecular imaging agents based on hyperbranched polymers that combine the complementary capabilities of optical fluorescence imaging and positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET/CT) into one construct. RAFT-mediated polymerisation was used to prepare two hydrophilic hyperbranched polymers that were differentiated by their size and level of branching. The multiple functional end-groups facilitated covalent attachment of both near infrared fluorescent dyes for optical imaging, as well as a copper chelator allowing binding of 64Cu as a PET radio nuclei. In vivo multimodal imaging of mice using PET/CT and planar optical imaging was first used to assess the biodistribution of the polymeric materials and it was shown that the larger and more branched polymer had a significantly longer circulation time. The larger constructs were also shown to exhibit enhanced accumulation in solid tumours in a murine B16 melanoma model. Importantly, it was demonstrated that the PET modality gave rise to high sensitivity immediately after injection of the agent, while the optical modality facilitated extended longitudinal studies, thus highlighting how the complementary capabilities of the molecular imaging agents can be useful for studying various diseases, including cancer.

Community uses of co-creative media digital storytelling and co-creative Media: The role of community arts and media in propagating and coordinating population-wide creative practice

How is creative expression and communication extended among whole populations? What is the social and cultural value of this activity? What roles do formal agencies, community-based organisations and content producer networks play? Specifically, how do participatory media and arts projects and networks contribute to building this capacity in the contemporary communications environment? The latest issue of CSJ article in a special issue on “Broadening Digital Storytelling Horizons” edited by Burcu Simsek.

Synthesis, characterization, and electronic structure studies of cubic Bi1.5ZnTa1.5O7 for photocatalytic applications

Bi1.5ZnTa1.5O7 (BZT) has been synthesized using an alkoxide based sol-gel reaction route. The evolution of the phases produced from the alkoxide precursors and their properties have been characterized as function of temperature using a combination of thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) coupled with mass spectrometry (MS), infrared emission spectrometry (IES), X-ray diffraction (XRD), ultraviolet and visible (UV-Vis) spectroscopy, Raman spectroscopy, and N2 adsorption/desorption isotherms. The lowest sintering temperature (600∘C) to obtain phase pure BZT powders with high surface area (14.5m2/g) has been determined from the thermal decomposition and phase analyses.The photocatalytic activity of the BZT powders has been tested for the decolorization of organic azo-dye and found to be photoactive under UV irradiation.The electronic band structure of the BZT has been investigated using density functional theory (DFT) calculations to determine the band gap energy (3.12 eV) and to compare it with experimental band gap (3.02 eV at 800∘C) from optical absorptionmeasurements. An excellent match is obtained for an assumption of Zn cation substitutions at specifically ordered sites in the BZT structure.

Population health planning and health promotion: Opportunities and challenges to improve social determinants

Complex social factors and health issues challenge equitable health outcomes for many people, in particular those living in marginalised communities. Primary health care promises solutions through population health and health promotion approaches to improve social conditions (determinants) affecting health with emphasis on change at systems levels. Yet short-term efficiency focus policy decisions without long-term planning can undermine the effectiveness of primary health care. The workshop goal is to explore opportunities and share ideas about population health planning in Primary Health Networks and other community health care settings, so as to draw out opportunities, challenges and forward thinking health planning and health promotion strategies.

An extravariation model for improving confidence intervals of population size estimates from removal data

We propose a new model for estimating the size of a population from successive catches taken during a removal experiment. The data from these experiments often have excessive variation, known as overdispersion, as compared with that predicted by the multinomial model. The new model allows catchability to vary randomly among samplings, which accounts for overdispersion. When the catchability is assumed to have a beta distribution, the likelihood function, which is refered to as beta-multinomial, is derived, and hence the maximum likelihood estimates can be evaluated. Simulations show that in the presence of extravariation in the data, the confidence intervals have been substantially underestimated in previous models (Leslie-DeLury, Moran) and that the new model provides more reliable confidence intervals. The performance of these methods was also demonstrated using two real data sets: one with overdispersion, from smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and the other without overdispersion, from rat (Rattus rattus).

Population structure, mortality and growth of Pinna nobilis Linnaeus, 1758 (Mollusca, Bivalvia) at different depths in Moraira bay (Alicante, Western Mediterranean)

An investigation to characterize the causes of Pinna nobilis population structure in Moraira bay (Western Mediterranean) was developed. Individuals of two areas of the same Posidonia meadow, located at different depths (A1, -13 and A2, -6 m), were inventoried, tagged, their positions accurately recorded and monitored from July 1997 to July 2002. On each area, different aspects of population demography were studied (i.e. spatial distribution, size structure, displacement evidences, mortality, growth and shell orientation). A comparison between both groups of individuals was carried out, finding important differences between them. In A1, the individuals were more aggregated and mean and maximum size were higher (A1, 10.3 and A2, 6 individuals/100 m(2); A1, x = 47.2 +/- 9.9; A2, x = 29.8 +/- 7.4 cm, P < 0.001, respectively). In A2, growth rate and mortality were higher, the latter concentrated on the largest individuals, in contrast to A1, where the smallest individuals had the higher mortality rate [A1, L = 56.03(1 - e(-0.17t)); A2, L = 37.59(1 - e(-0.40t)), P < 0.001; mean annual mortality A1: 32 dead individuals out of 135, 23.7% and A2: 16 dead individuals out of 36, 44.4%, and total mortality coefficients (z), z(A1(-30)) = 0.28, z(A1(31-45)) = 0.05, z(A1(46-)) = 0.08; z(A2(-30)) = 0.15, z(A2(31-45)) = 0.25]. A common shell orientation N-S, coincident with the maximum shore exposure, was observed in A2. Spatial distribution in both areas showed not enough evidence to discard a random distribution of the individuals, despite the greater aggregation on the deeper area (A1) (A1, chi(2) = 0.41, df = 3, P > 0.5, A2, chi(2)= 0.98, df = 2 and 0.3 < P < 0.5). The obtained results have demonstrated that the depth-related size segregation usually shown by P. nobilis is mainly caused by differences in mortality and growth among individuals located at different depths, rather than by the active displacement of individuals previously reported in the literature. Furthermore, dwarf individuals are observed in shallower levels and as a consequence, the relationship between size and age are not comparable even among groups of individuals inhabiting the same meadow at different depths. The final causes of the differences on mortality and growth are also discussed.

Effect of individual variability on estimation of population parameters from length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity and investigate the possible bias in the estimates when the individual variability is ignored. Three methods are examined: (i) the regression method based on the Beverton and Holt's (1956, Rapp. P.V. Reun. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer, 140: 67-83) equation; (ii) the moment method of Powell (1979, Rapp. PV. Reun. Int. Explor. Mer, 175: 167-169); and (iii) a generalization of Powell's method that estimates the individual variability to be incorporated into the estimation. It is found that the biases in the estimates from the existing methods are, in general, substantial, even when individual variability in growth is small and recruitment is uniform, and the generalized method performs better in terms of bias but is subject to a larger variation. There is a need to develop robust and flexible methods to deal with individual variability in the analysis of length-frequency data.

Variable Size Population NSGA-II: VPNSGA-II

Multi-objective optimization is an active field of research with broad applicability in aeronautics. This report details a variant of the original NSGA-II software aimed to improve the performances of such a widely used Genetic Algorithm in finding the optimal Pareto-front of a Multi-Objective optimization problem for the use of UAV and aircraft design and optimsaiton. Original NSGA-II works on a population of predetermined constant size and its computational cost to evaluate one generation is O(mn^2 ), being m the number of objective functions and n the population size. The basic idea encouraging this work is that of reduce the computational cost of the NSGA-II algorithm by making it work on a population of variable size, in order to obtain better convergence towards the Pareto-front in less time. In this work some test functions will be tested with both original NSGA-II and VPNSGA-II algorithms; each test will be timed in order to get a measure of the computational cost of each trial and the results will be compared.

Genetic association analysis of miRNA SNPs implicates MIR145 in breast cancer susceptibility

Background MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are important small non-coding RNA molecules that regulate gene expression in cellular processes related to the pathogenesis of cancer. Genetic variation in miRNA genes could impact their synthesis and cellular effects and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are one example of genetic variants studied in relation to breast cancer. Studies aimed at identifying miRNA SNPs (miR-SNPs) associated with breast malignancies could lead towards further understanding of the disease and to develop clinical applications for early diagnosis and treatment. Methods We genotyped a panel of 24 miR-SNPs using multiplex PCR and chip-based matrix assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry (MS) analysis in two Caucasian breast cancer case control populations (Primary population: 173 cases and 187 controls and secondary population: 679 cases and 301 controls). Association to breast cancer susceptibility was determined using chi-square (X 2 ) and odds ratio (OR) analysis. Results Statistical analysis showed six miR-SNPs to be non-polymorphic and twelve of our selected miR-SNPs to have no association with breast cancer risk. However, we were able to show association between rs353291 (located in MIR145) and the risk of developing breast cancer in two independent case control cohorts (p = 0.041 and p = 0.023). Conclusions Our study is the first to report an association between a miR-SNP in MIR145 and breast cancer risk in individuals of Caucasian background. This finding requires further validation through genotyping of larger cohorts or in individuals of different ethnicities to determine the potential significance of this finding as well as studies aimed to determine functional significance. Keywords: Association analysis; Breast cancer; microRNA; miR-SNPs; MIR145

Effects of methyl eugenol feeding on mating compatibility of Asian population of Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) with African population and with B. carambolae

Males of some species included in the Bactrocera dorsalis complex are strongly attracted to methyl eugenol (ME) (1,2-dimethoxy-4-(2-propenyl) benzene), a natural compound occurring in a variety of plant species. ME feeding of males of the B. dorsalis complex is known to enhance their mating competitiveness. Within B. dorsalis, recent studies show that Asian and African populations of B. dorsalis are sexually compatible, while populations of B. dorsalis and Bactrocera carambolae are relatively incompatible. The objectives of this study were to examine whether ME feeding by males affects mating compatibility between Asian and African populations of B. dorsalis and ME feeding reduces male mating incompatibility between B. dorsalis (Asian population) and B. carambolae. The data confirmed that Asian and African populations of B. dorsalis are sexually compatible for mating and showed that ME feeding only increased the number of matings. Though ME feeding also increased the number of matings of B. dorsalis (Asian population) and B. carambolae males but the sexual incompatibility between both species was not reduced by treatment with ME. These results conform to the efforts resolving the biological species limits among B. dorsalis complex and have implications for fruit fly control programs in fields and horticultural trade.

Lung cancer risk of airborne particles for Italian population

Airborne particles, including both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles, contain various carcinogens. Exposure and risk-assessment studies regularly use particle mass concentration as dosimetry parameter, therefore neglecting the potential impact of ultrafine particles due to their negligible mass compared to supermicrometric particles. The main purpose of this study was the characterization of lung cancer risk due to exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and some heavy metals associated with particle inhalation by Italian non-smoking people. A risk-assessment scheme, modified from an existing risk model, was applied to estimate the cancer risk contribution from both ultrafine and supermicrometric particles. Exposure assessment was carried out on the basis of particle number distributions measured in 25 smoke-free microenvironments in Italy. The predicted lung cancer risk was then compared to the cancer incidence rate in Italy to assess the number of lung cancer cases attributed to airborne particle inhalation, which represents one of the main causes of lung cancer, apart from smoking. Ultrafine particles are associated with a much higher risk than supermicrometric particles, and the modified risk-assessment scheme provided a more accurate estimate than the conventional scheme. Great attention has to be paid to indoor microenvironments and, in particular, to cooking and eating times, which represent the major contributors to lung cancer incidence in the Italian population. The modified risk assessment scheme can serve as a tool for assessing environmental quality, as well as setting up exposure standards for particulate matter.

Can we safely deform a plate to fit every bone? Population-based fit assessment and finite element deformation of a distal tibial plate

Anatomically precontoured plates are commonly used to treat periarticular fractures. A well-fitting plate can be used as a tool for anatomical reduction of the fractured bone. Recent studies highlighted that some plates fit poorly for many patients due to considerable shape variations between bones of the same anatomical site. While it is impossible to design one shape that fits all, it is also burdensome for the manufacturers and hospitals to produce, store and manage multiple plate shapes without the certainty of utilization by a patient population. In this study, we investigated the number of shapes required for maximum fit within a given dataset, and if they could be obtained by manually deforming the original plate. A distal medial tibial plate was automatically positioned on 45 individual tibiae, and the optimal deformation was determined iteratively using finite element analysis simulation. Within the studied dataset, we found that: (i) 89% fit could be achieved with four shapes, (ii) 100% fit was impossible through mechanical deformation, and (iii) the deformations required to obtain the four plate shapes were safe for the stainless steel plate for further clinical use. The proposed framework is easily transferable to other orthopaedic plates.

Human bladder uroepithelial cells synergize with monocytes to promote IL-10 synthesis and other cytokine responses to Uropathogenic Escherichia coli

Urinary tract infections are a major source of morbidity for women and the elderly, with Uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) being the most prevalent causative pathogen. Studies in recent years have defined a key anti-inflammatory role for Interleukin-10 (IL-10) in urinary tract infection mediated by UPEC and other uropathogens. We investigated the nature of the IL-10-producing interactions between UPEC and host cells by utilising a novel co-culture model that incorporated lymphocytes, mononuclear and uroepithelial cells in histotypic proportions. This co-culture model demonstrated synergistic IL-10 production effects between monocytes and uroepithelial cells following infection with UPEC. Membrane inserts were used to separate the monocyte and uroepithelial cell types during infection and revealed two synergistic IL-10 production effects based on contact-dependent and soluble interactions. Analysis of a comprehensive set of immunologically relevant biomarkers in monocyte-uroepithelial cell co-cultures highlighted that multiple cytokine, chemokine and signalling factors were also produced in a synergistic or antagonistic fashion. These results demonstrate that IL-10 responses to UPEC occur via multiple interactions between several cells types, implying a complex role for infection-related IL-10 during UTI. Development and application of the co-culture model described in this study is thus useful to define the degree of contact dependency of biomarker production to UPEC, and highlights the relevance of histotypic co-cultures in studying complex host-pathogen interactions.