A Model to Estimate the Population Contributing to the Wastewater Using Samples Collected on Census Day

An important uncertainty when estimating per capita consumption of, for example, illicit drugs by means of wastewater analysis (sometimes referred to as “sewage epidemiology”) relates to the size and variability of the de facto population in the catchment of interest. In the absence of a day-specific direct population count any indirect surrogate model to estimate population size lacks a standard to assess associated uncertainties. Therefore, the objective of this study was to collect wastewater samples at a unique opportunity, that is, on a census day, as a basis for a model to estimate the number of people contributing to a given wastewater sample. Mass loads for a wide range of pharmaceuticals and personal care products were quantified in influents of ten sewage treatment plants (STP) serving populations ranging from approximately 3500 to 500 000 people. Separate linear models for population size were estimated with the mass loads of the different chemical as the explanatory variable: 14 chemicals showed good, linear relationships, with highest correlations for acesulfame and gabapentin. De facto population was then estimated through Bayesian inference, by updating the population size provided by STP staff (prior knowledge) with measured chemical mass loads. Cross validation showed that large populations can be estimated fairly accurately with a few chemical mass loads quantified from 24-h composite samples. In contrast, the prior knowledge for small population sizes cannot be improved substantially despite the information of multiple chemical mass loads. In the future, observations other than chemical mass loads may improve this deficit, since Bayesian inference allows including any kind of information relating to population size.

Increasing autonomy transparency through capability communication in multiple heterogeneous UAV management

Interest in the area of collaborative Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in a Multi-Agent System is growing to compliment the strengths and weaknesses of the human-machine relationship. To achieve effective management of multiple heterogeneous UAVs, the status model of the agents must be communicated to each other. This paper presents the effects on operator Cognitive Workload (CW), Situation Awareness (SA), trust and performance by increasing the autonomy capability transparency through text-based communication of the UAVs to the human agents. The results revealed a reduction in CW, increase in SA, increase in the Competence, Predictability and Reliability dimensions of trust, and the operator performance.

Do motor vehicle crashes arise from single or multiple unique risk processes? An inquiry into crash causes and modelling

Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

Identification of multiple risk variants for ankylosing spondylitis through high-density genotyping of immune-related loci

Ankylosing spondylitis is a common, highly heritable inflammatory arthritis affecting primarily the spine and pelvis. In addition to HLA-B*27 alleles, 12 loci have previously been identified that are associated with ankylosing spondylitis in populations of European ancestry, and 2 associated loci have been identified in Asians. In this study, we used the Illumina Immunochip microarray to perform a case-control association study involving 10,619 individuals with ankylosing spondylitis (cases) and 15,145 controls. We identified 13 new risk loci and 12 additional ankylosing spondylitis-associated haplotypes at 11 loci. Two ankylosing spondylitis-associated regions have now been identified encoding four aminopeptidases that are involved in peptide processing before major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I presentation. Protective variants at two of these loci are associated both with reduced aminopeptidase function and with MHC class I cell surface expression.

Assessment of body composition in Sri Lankan children: Validation of a bioelectrical impedance prediction equation

Objective: To develop bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations to predict total body water (TBW) and fat-free mass (FFM) of Sri Lankan children. Subjects/Methods: Data were collected from 5- to 15-year-old healthy children. They were randomly assigned to validation (M/F: 105/83) and cross-validation (M/F: 53/41) groups. Height, weight and BIA were measured. TBW was assessed using isotope dilution method (D2 O). Multiple regression analysis was used to develop preliminary equations and cross-validated on an independent group. Final prediction equation was constructed combining the two groups and validated by PRESS (prediction of sum of squares) statistics. Impedance index (height2/impedance; cm2/Ω), weight and sex code (male = 1; female = 0) were used as variables. Results: Independent variables of the final prediction equation for TBW were able to predict 86.3% of variance with root means-squared error (RMSE) of 2.1l. PRESS statistics was 2.1l with press residuals of 1.2l. Independent variables were able to predict 86.9% of variance of FFM with RMSE of 2.7 kg. PRESS statistics was 2.8 kg with press residuals of 1.4 kg. Bland Altman technique showed that the majority of the residuals were within mean bias±1.96 s.d. Conclusions: Results of this study provide BIA equation for the prediction of TBW and FFM in Sri Lankan children. To the best of our knowledge there are no published BIA prediction equations validated on South Asian populations. Results of this study need to be affirmed by more studies on other closely related populations by using multi-component body composition assessment.

Investigating ANKH and ENPP1 in Slovakian families with chondrocalcinosis

Familial articular chondrocalcinosis (CC) was Wrst reported in 1963. It is characterised by multiple calciWcations of hyaline and Wbrous cartilage in the joints and intervertebral discs. Mutations in ANKH have been identified in several pedigrees as a monogenic cause for this disorder. ANKH is a key protein in pyrophosphate metabolism and is involved in pyrophosphate transport across the cell membrane. The objective of this work was to screen ANKH and ENPP1, two key genes in pyrophosphate metabolism, in Slovakian kindreds with familial CC. DNA samples from 25 individuals (10 aVected, 15 unaVected) from 8 families were obtained. The promoter, coding regions and intron-exon boundaries of ANKH and ENPP1 were sequenced. Twelve DNA sequence variants, six in each gene, were identiWed. All the variants had been previously identified. None segregated with the disease. Our results suggest that neither ANKH nor ENPP1 mutations are the cause of CC in these families, indicating that possibly other major genes are involved in the aethiopathogenesis of this condition in these families.

Dissection of the genetics of Parkinson's disease identifies an additional association 5' of SNCA and multiple associated haplotypes at 17q21

We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 1705 Parkinson's disease (PD) UK patients and 5175 UK controls, the largest sample size so far for a PD GWAS. Replication was attempted in an additional cohort of 1039 French PD cases and 1984 controls for the 27 regions showing the strongest evidence of association (P < 10 4). We replicated published associations in the 4q22/SNCA and 17q21/MAPT chromosome regions (P < 10 10) and found evidence for an additional independent association in 4q22/SNCA.A detailed analysis of the haplotype structure at 17q21 showed that there are three separate risk groups within this region. We found weak but consistent evidence of association for common variants located in three previously published associated regions (4p15/BST1, 4p16/GAK and 1q32/PARK16). We found no support for the previously reported SNP association in 12q12/LRRK2. We also found an association of the two SNPs in 4q22/SNCA with the age of onset of the disease. © The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press.

Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals, and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the HLA-DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly overrepresented among those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T-helper-cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis. © 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

The multiple sclerosis whole blood mRNA transcriptome and genetic associations indicate dysregulation of specific T cell pathways in pathogenesis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease with a genetic component, caused at least in part by aberrant lymphocyte activity. The whole blood mRNA transcriptome was measured for 99 untreated MS patients: 43 primary progressive MS, 20 secondary progressive MS, 36 relapsing remitting MS and 45 age-matched healthy controls. The ANZgene Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium genotyped more than 300 000 SNPs for 115 of these samples. Transcription from genes on translational regulation, oxidative phosphorylation, immune synapse and antigen presentation pathways was markedly increased in all forms of MS. Expression of genes tagging T cells was also upregulated (P < 10-12) in MS. A T cell gene signature predicts disease state with a concordance index of 0.79 with age and gender as co-variables, but the signature is not associated with clinical course or disability. The ANZgene genome wide association screen identified two novel regions with genome wide significance: one encoding the T cell co-stimulatory molecule, CD40; the other a region on chromosome 12q13-14. The CD40 haplotype associated with increased MS susceptibility has decreased gene expression in MS (P < 0.0007). The second MS susceptibility region includes 17 genes on 12q13-14 in tight linkage disequilibrium. Of these, only 13 are expressed in leukocytes, and of these the expression of one, FAM119B, is much lower in the susceptibility haplotype (P tdthomlt; 10-14). Overall, these data indicate dysregulation of T cells can be detected in the whole blood of untreated MS patients, and supports targeting of activated T cells in therapy for all forms of MS.

Genetic analyses in a sample of individuals with high or low BMD shows association with multiple Wnt pathway genes

INTRODUCTION Although the high heritability of BMD variation has long been established, few genes have been conclusively shown to affect the variation of BMD in the general population. Extreme truncate selection has been proposed as a more powerful alternative to unselected cohort designs in quantitative trait association studies. We sought to test these theoretical predictions in studies of the bone densitometry measures BMD, BMC, and femoral neck area, by investigating their association with members of the Wnt pathway, some of which have previously been shown to be associated with BMD in much larger cohorts, in a moderate-sized extreme truncate selected cohort (absolute value BMD Z-scores = 1.5-4.0; n = 344). MATERIALS AND METHODS Ninety-six tag-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) lying in 13 Wnt signaling pathway genes were selected to tag common genetic variation (minor allele frequency [MAF] > 5% with an r(2) > 0.8) within 5 kb of all exons of 13 Wnt signaling pathway genes. The genes studied included LRP1, LRP5, LRP6, Wnt3a, Wnt7b, Wnt10b, SFRP1, SFRP2, DKK1, DKK2, FZD7, WISP3, and SOST. Three hundred forty-four cases with either high or low BMD were genotyped by Illumina Goldengate microarray SNP genotyping methods. Association was tested either by Cochrane-Armitage test for dichotomous variables or by linear regression for quantitative traits. RESULTS Strong association was shown with LRP5, polymorphisms of which have previously been shown to influence total hip BMD (minimum p = 0.0006). In addition, polymorphisms of the Wnt antagonist, SFRP1, were significantly associated with BMD and BMC (minimum p = 0.00042). Previously reported associations of LRP1, LRP6, and SOST with BMD were confirmed. Two other Wnt pathway genes, Wnt3a and DKK2, also showed nominal association with BMD. CONCLUSIONS This study shows that polymorphisms of multiple members of the Wnt pathway are associated with BMD variation. Furthermore, this study shows in a practical trial that study designs involving extreme truncate selection and moderate sample sizes can robustly identify genes of relevant effect sizes involved in BMD variation in the general population. This has implications for the design of future genome-wide studies of quantitative bone phenotypes relevant to osteoporosis.

Combined analysis of three whole genome linkage scans for Ankylosing Spondylitis

Objective. Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is a debilitating chronic inflammatory condition with a high degree of familiality (λs=82) and heritability (>90%) that primarily affects spinal and sacroiliac joints. Whole genome scans for linkage to AS phenotypes have been conducted, although results have been inconsistent between studies and all have had modest sample sizes. One potential solution to these issues is to combine data from multiple studies in a retrospective meta-analysis. Methods: The International Genetics of Ankylosing Spondylitis Consortium combined data from three whole genome linkage scans for AS (n=3744 subjects) to determine chromosomal markers that show evidence of linkage with disease. Linkage markers typed in different centres were integrated into a consensus map to facilitate effective data pooling. We performed a weighted meta-analysis to combine the linkage results, and compared them with the three individual scans and a combined pooled scan. Results: In addition to the expected region surrounding the HLA-B27 gene on chromosome 6, we determined that several marker regions showed significant evidence of linkage with disease status. Regions on chromosome 10q and 16q achieved 'suggestive' evidence of linkage, and regions on chromosomes 1q, 3q, 5q, 6q, 9q, 17q and 19q showed at least nominal linkage in two or more scans and in the weighted meta-analysis. Regions previously associated with AS on chromosome 2q (the IL-1 gene cluster) and 22q (CYP2D6) exhibited nominal linkage in the meta-analysis, providing further statistical support for their involvement in susceptibility to AS. Conclusion: These findings provide a useful guide for future studies aiming to identify the genes involved in this highly heritable condition. . Published by on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.

Disorganizing educational tropes: Conceptions of dis/ability and curriculum

A study examined the politics of dis/ability and curriculum. Data were obtained from a review of the new disability studies literature, focusing on the areas of history, sociology, anthropology, and critical legal theory. The results indicate that this new literature challenges popular psychoeducational models that assume disability as an objective medical, individual, and pathological deficiency, effectively restricting the systematic study of dis/ability as relational, external, shifting, and socially constituted. The findings suggest ways in which perceptions of “school problems” have to be adjusted to understand how the constant refiguration of normativities in everyday activities creates perceptions of disability-negative ontologies, generates experiences that incite efforts to modify those perceptions in multiple ways, and produces unintended effects from well-intended approaches that in the end remain irreducible to simplistic definitions for the one “ethical” or “politically correct” strategy.

Assistance arrangements and use of services among persons with multiple sclerosis and their caregivers

A large population-based survey of persons with multiple sclerosis (MS) and their caregivers was conducted in Ontario using self-completed mailed questionnaires. The objectives included describing assistance arrangements, needs, and use of and satisfaction with services, and comparing perceptions of persons with MS and their caregivers. Response rates were 83% and 72% for those with MS and caregivers, respectively. Based on 697 respondents with MS whose mean age is 48 years, 70% are female, and 75% are married. While 24% experience no mobility restrictions, the majority require some type of aid or a wheelchair for getting around. Among 345 caregivers, who have been providing care for 9 years on average, the majority are spouses. Caregivers report providing more frequent care than do persons with MS report receiving it, particularly for the following activities of daily living: eating, meal preparation, and help with personal finances. Caregivers also report assistance of longer duration per day than do care recipients with MS. Frequency and duration of assistance are positively associated with increased MS symptom severity and reduced mobility. Generally there is no rural-urban disparity in service provision, utilization or satisfaction, and although there is a wide range of service utilization, satisfaction is consistently high. Respite care is rarely used by caregivers. Use of several services is positively associated with increased severity of MS symptoms and reduced mobility. Assistance arrangements and use of services, each from the point of view of persons with MS and their caregivers, must be taken into account in efforts to prolong home care and to postpone early institutionalization of persons with MS.

Nonparametric rank regression for analyzing water quality concentration data with multiple detection limits

Environmental data usually include measurements, such as water quality data, which fall below detection limits, because of limitations of the instruments or of certain analytical methods used. The fact that some responses are not detected needs to be properly taken into account in statistical analysis of such data. However, it is well-known that it is challenging to analyze a data set with detection limits, and we often have to rely on the traditional parametric methods or simple imputation methods. Distributional assumptions can lead to biased inference and justification of distributions is often not possible when the data are correlated and there is a large proportion of data below detection limits. The extent of bias is usually unknown. To draw valid conclusions and hence provide useful advice for environmental management authorities, it is essential to develop and apply an appropriate statistical methodology. This paper proposes rank-based procedures for analyzing non-normally distributed data collected at different sites over a period of time in the presence of multiple detection limits. To take account of temporal correlations within each site, we propose an optimal linear combination of estimating functions and apply the induced smoothing method to reduce the computational burden. Finally, we apply the proposed method to the water quality data collected at Susquehanna River Basin in United States of America, which dearly demonstrates the advantages of the rank regression models.

A simple method for estimating growth parameters from multiple length-frequency data in presence of continuous recruitment

The extended recruitment season for short-lived species such as prawns biases the estimation of growth parameters from length-frequency data when conventional methods are used. We propose a simple method for overcoming this bias given a time series of length-frequency data. The difficulties arising from extended recruitment are eliminated by predicting the growth of the succeeding samples and the length increments of the recruits in previous samples. This method requires that some maximum size at recruitment can be specified. The advantages of this multiple length-frequency method are: it is simple to use; it requires only three parameters; no specific distributions need to be assumed; and the actual seasonal recruitment pattern does not have to be specified. We illustrate the new method with length-frequency data on the tiger prawn Penaeus esculentus from the north-western Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia.