Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

VIBRANTe 2.0

ARTIST STATEMENT VIBRANTe 2.0 was inspired by a research project for Parkinson’s disease patients aimed at developing a wearable device to collect relevant data for patients and medical health professionals. Vibrante is a Spanish word that translates to vibrant; literally meaning shaking or vibrations. Vibrante also has a dual meaning including vibrancy, energy, activity, and liveliness. Parkinson’s can be a debilitating disease, but it does not mean the person has to lose energy, activeness or vibrancy. As technology moves from being worn to becoming implantable and completely hidden within the body, the very notion of its physicality becomes difficult to grasp. While the human body hides implantable technology, VIBRANTe 2.0 intentionally hides the human body by making it invisible to reveal the technology stitched within. Wires become veins, delivering lifeblood to the technology inside, allowing it to pulsate and exist, while motherboards become networked hubs by which information is transferred through and within the body, performing functions that mirror and often surpass human performance capabilities. Ultimately, VIBRANTe 2.0 seeks to prompt the viewer to reflect on the potential ramifications of the complete immersion of technology into the human body. CONTEXT Technology is increasingly penetrating all aspects of our environment, and the rapid uptake of devices that live near, on or in our bodies is facilitating radical new ways of working, relating and socialising. Such technology, with its capacity to generate previously unimaginable levels of data, offers the potential to provide life-augmenting levels of interactivity. However, the absorption of technology into the very fabric of clothes, accessories and even bodies begins to dilute boundaries between physical, technological and social spheres, generating genuine ethical and privacy concerns and potentially having implications for human evolution. Embedding technology into the fabric of our clothes, accessories, and even the body enable the acquisition of and the connection to vast amounts of data about people and environments in order to provide life-augmenting levels of interactivity. Wearable sensors for example, offer the potential for significant benefits in the future management of our wellbeing. Fitness trackers such as ‘Fitbit’ and ‘Garmen’ provide wearers with the ability to monitor their personal fitness indicators while other wearables provide healthcare professionals with information that improves diagnosis and observation of medical conditions. This exhibition aimed to illustrate this shifting landscape through a selection of experimental wearable and interactive works by local, national and international artists and designers. The exhibition will also provide a platform for broader debate around wearable technology, our mediated future-selves and human interactions in this future landscape. EXHIBITION As part of Artisan’s Wearnext exhibition, the work was on public display from 25 July to 7 November 2015 and received the following media coverage: [Please refer to Additional URLs]

Supporting knowledge-intensive construction management tasks in BIM

The delivery of products and services for construction-based businesses is increasingly becoming knowledge-driven and information-intensive. The proliferation of building information modelling (BIM) has increased business opportunities as well as introduced new challenges for the architectural, engineering and construction and facilities management (AEC/FM) industry. As such, the effective use, sharing and exchange of building life cycle information and knowledge management in building design, construction, maintenance and operation assumes a position of paramount importance. This paper identifies a subset of construction management (CM) relevant knowledge for different design conditions of building components through a critical, comprehensive review of synthesized literature and other information gathering and knowledge acquisition techniques. It then explores how such domain knowledge can be formalized as ontologies and, subsequently, a query vocabulary in order to equip BIM users with the capacity to query digital models of a building for the retrieval of useful and relevant domain-specific information. The formalized construction knowledge is validated through interviews with domain experts in relation to four case study projects. Additionally, retrospective analyses of several design conditions are used to demonstrate the soundness (realism), completeness, and appeal of the knowledge base and query-based reasoning approach in relation to the state-of-the-art tools, Solibri Model Checker and Navisworks. The knowledge engineering process and the methods applied in this research for information representation and retrieval could provide useful mechanisms to leverage BIM in support of a number of knowledge intensive CM/FM tasks and functions.

The profile of psychiatric symptoms exacerbated by methamphetamine use

Background Methamphetamine use can produce symptoms almost indistinguishable from schizophrenia. Distinguishing between the two conditions has been hampered by the lack of a validated symptom profile for methamphetamine-induced psychiatric symptoms. We use data from a longitudinal cohort study to examine the profile of psychiatric symptoms that are acutely exacerbated by methamphetamine use. Methods 164 methamphetamine users, who did not meet DSM-IV criteria for a lifetime primary psychotic disorder, were followed monthly for one year to assess the relationship between days of methamphetamine use and symptom severity on the 24-item Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale. Exacerbation of psychiatric symptoms with methamphetamine use was quantified using random coefficient models. The dimensions of symptom exacerbation were examined using principal axis factoring and a latent profile analysis. Results Symptoms exacerbated by methamphetamine loaded on three factors: positive psychotic symptoms (suspiciousness, unusual thought content, hallucinations, bizarre behavior); affective symptoms (depression, suicidality, guilt, hostility, somatic concern, self-neglect); and psychomotor symptoms (tension, excitement, distractibility, motor hyperactivity). Methamphetamine use did not significantly increase negative symptoms. Vulnerability to positive psychotic and affective symptom exacerbation was shared by 28% of participants, and this vulnerability aligned with a past year DSM-IV diagnosis of substance-induced psychosis (38% vs. 22%, _2 (df1) = 3.66, p = 0.056). Conclusion Methamphetamine use produced a symptom profile comprised of positive psychotic and affective symptoms, which aligned with a diagnosis of substance-induced psychosis, with no evidence of a negative syndrome.

Ductile deformation of single inclusions in simple shear with a finite-strain hyperelastoviscoplastic rheology

We examine the 2D plane-­strain deformation of initially round, matrix-­bonded, deformable single inclusions in isothermal simple shear using a recently introduced hyperelastoviscoplastic rheology. The broad parameter space spanned by the wide range of effective viscosities, yield stresses, relaxation times, and strain rates encountered in the ductile lithosphere is explored systematically for weak and strong inclusions, the effective viscosity of which varies with respect to the matrix. Most inclusion studies to date focused on elastic or purely viscous rheologies. Comparing our results with linear-­viscous inclusions in a linear-­viscous matrix, we observe significantly different shape evolution of weak and strong inclusions over most of the relevant parameter space. The evolution of inclusion inclination relative to the shear plane is more strongly affected by elastic and plastic contributions to rheology in the case of strong inclusions. In addition, we found that strong inclusions deform in the transient viscoelastic stress regime at high Weissenberg numbers (≥0.01) up to bulk shear strains larger than 3. Studies using the shapes of deformed objects for finite-­strain analysis or viscosity-­ratio estimation should establish carefully which rheology and loading conditions reflect material and deformation properties. We suggest that relatively strong, deformable clasts in shear zones retain stored energy up to fairly high shear strains. Hence, purely viscous models of clast deformation may overlook an important contribution to the energy budget, which may drive dissipation processes within and around natural inclusions.

Orienting to emotion in computer-mediated Cognitive Behavioural Therapy

Exploring emotions is a defining feature of psychotherapy. This study explores how therapists explore emotions when they cannot see or hear their clients. In analysing 1,279 sessions of online text-based Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) we focused on therapists’ commiserations (e.g., “I’m sorry to hear that”) and their affective inferences (e.g., “that sounds very scary for you”). Both practices routinely prefaced moves to pursue a range of therapeutic activities, many of which did not prioritise sustained focus on the emotion that had just been oriented to. By separating message composition from message transmission, the modality used for these therapy sessions enabled therapists to combine orientations to emotion with attempts to shift the focus of discussion. Our analysis finds that although physically co-present and computer-mediated psychotherapy share a common focus on emotional experience, the modality used for therapy can be relevant in the design and use of these orientations. Data are in British English.

Unraveling the “passion orchestra” in academia

This paper disentangles how organization members' “passion orchestra” is related to their entrepreneurial intentions in the particularly relevant context of academia. Drawing on passion literature and identity theory, we propose and test a model linking two central parts of researchers' “passion orchestra”, namely entrepreneurial and obsessive scientific passion, directly and indirectly, to spin-off and start-up intentions. While spin-off intentions refer to intentions to found a firm based upon research results, start-up intentions denote intentions to start any type of company. Using a sample of 2308 researchers from 24 European universities, our findings reveal that higher levels of entrepreneurial passion are associated with both stronger spin-off and start-up intentions. Further, obsessive scientific passion is positively associated with researchers' intentions to create a spin-off, and negatively with their propensity to establish a start-up. Entrepreneurial self-efficacy and affective organizational commitment mediate these effects. Finally, the two types of passion show characteristic interactions. Obsessive scientific passion moderates the entrepreneurial passion–intentions relationship such that it strengthens spin-off intentions. Our results highlight that recasting the individual driven by a singular passion to one with a “passion orchestra” provides a more holistic understanding of the new venture creation process. Implications for research and practice are discussed.