Jackknife for bias reduction in predictive regressions

One of the fundamental econometric models in finance is predictive regression. The standard least squares method produces biased coefficient estimates when the regressor is persistent and its innovations are correlated with those of the dependent variable. This article proposes a general and convenient method based on the jackknife technique to tackle the estimation problem. The proposed method reduces the bias for both single- and multiple-regressor models and for both short- and long-horizon regressions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulations. An empirical application to equity premium prediction using the dividend yield and the short rate highlights the differences between the results by the standard approach and those by the bias-reduced estimator. The significant predictive variables under the ordinary least squares become insignificant after adjusting for the finite-sample bias. These discrepancies suggest that bias reduction in predictive regressions is important in practical applications.

A portable approach for the surveillance of dengue virus-infected mosquitoes

Dengue virus is the most significant human viral pathogen spread by the bite of an infected mosquito. With no vaccine or antiviral therapy currently available, disease prevention relies largely on surveillance and mosquito control. Preventing the onset of dengue outbreaks and effective vector management would be considerably enhanced through surveillance of dengue virus prevalence in natural mosquito populations. However, current approaches to the identification of virus in field-caught mosquitoes require relatively slow and labor intensive techniques such as virus isolation or RT-PCR involving specialized facilities and personnel. A rapid and portable method for detecting dengue virus-infected mosquitoes is described. Using a hand held battery operated homogenizer and a dengue diagnostic rapid strip the viral protein NS1 was detected as a marker of dengue virus infection. This method could be performed in less than 30 min in the field, requiring no downstream processing, and is able to detect a single infected mosquito in a pool of at least 50 uninfected mosquitoes. The method described in this study allows rapid, real-time monitoring of dengue virus presence in mosquito populations and could be a useful addition to effective monitoring and vector control responses.

Extracting deck trend to plan descent trajectory for safe landing of UAVs

This paper outlines a feasible scheme to extract deck trend when a rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (RUAV)approaches an oscillating deck. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) is de- veloped to fuse measurements from multiple sensors for effective estimation of the unknown deck heave motion. Also, a recursive Prony Analysis (PA) procedure is proposed to implement online curve-fitting of the estimated heave mo- tion. The proposed PA constructs an appropriate model with parameters identified using the forgetting factor recursive least square (FFRLS)method. The deck trend is then extracted by separating dominant modes. Performance of the proposed procedure is evaluated using real ship motion data, and simulation results justify the suitability of the proposed method into safe landing of RUAVs operating in a maritime environment.

Polyandry and paternity skew in natural and experimental populations of Drosophila serrata

Many species engage in polyandry, resulting in the potential for sexual selection to continue post-copulation through sperm competition and/or cryptic female choice. The relative importance of pre- vs. post-copulatory processes remains unknown for most species despite this information being fundamental for understanding the evolutionary consequences of sexual selection. The Australian fruit fly Drosophila serrata has become a prominent model system for studying precopulatory sexual selection, such as mating preferences and their influence on the evolution of sexually selected traits. Here, we investigated polyandry and the potential for post-copulatory sexual selection in this species using indirect paternity analysis. We genotyped 21 wild-caught and 19 laboratory-reared mothers and their offspring (a total of 787 flies) at six microsatellite loci and found extensive polyandry, with all broods surveyed having at least two sires. Female remating rates were higher than in other Drosophila surveyed to date and no significant differences were found between laboratory and field populations. Additionally, we found evidence for biased sperm usage in several broods of D. serrata. Paternity skew occurred more frequently in broods from the field population than the laboratory one, suggesting differences between the two environments in the level of post-copulatory sexual selection. Our data suggest that D. serrata represents a promising system for studying the interaction between pre- and post-copulatory sexual selection in driving the evolution of sexually selected phenotypes.

Gene duplication is an evolutionary mechanism for expanding spectral diversity in the long-wavelength photopigments of butterflies

Butterfly long-wavelength (L) photopigments are interesting for comparative studies of adaptive evolution because of the tremendous phenotypic variation that exists in their wavelength of peak absorbance (lambda(max) value). Here we present a comprehensive survey of L photopigment variation by measuring lambda(max) in 12 nymphalid and 1 riodinid species using epi-microspectrophotometry. Together with previous data, we find that L photopigment lambda(max) varies from 510-565 nm in 22 nymphalids, with an even broader 505- to 600-nm range in riodinids. We then surveyed the L opsin genes for which lambda(max) values are available as well as from related taxa and found 2 instances of L opsin gene duplication within nymphalids, in Hermeuptychia hermes and Amathusia phidippus, and 1 instance within riodinids, in the metalmark butterfly Apodemia mormo. Using maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood ancestral state reconstructions to map the evolution of spectral shifts within the L photopigments of nymphalids, we estimate the ancestral pigment had a lambda(max) = 540 nm +/- 10 nm standard error and that blueshifts in wavelength have occurred at least 4 times within the family. We used ancestral state reconstructions to investigate the importance of several amino acid substitutions (Ile17Met, Ala64Ser, Asn70Ser, and Ser137Ala) previously shown to have evolved under positive selection that are correlated with blue spectral shifts. These reconstructions suggest that the Ala64Ser substitution has indeed occurred along the newly identified blueshifted L photopigment lineages. Substitutions at the other 3 sites may also be involved in the functional diversification of L photopigments. Our data strongly suggest that there are limits to the evolution of L photopigment spectral shifts among species with only one L opsin gene and that opsin gene duplication broadens the potential range of lambda(max) values.

Could BFFB mode breath aerosol play a role in H5N1 transmission?

Recent findings concerning exhaled aerosol size distributions and the regions in the respiratory tract in which they are generated could have significant implications for human to human spread of lower respiratory tract-specific infections. Even in healthy people, measurable quantities of aerosol are routinely generated from the Lower Respiratory Tract (LRT) during breathing(1-3). We have found that there at least three modes in the exhaled aerosol size distribution of healthy adults(4) (see Figure 1). These modes each have a characteristic size and arise from different parts of the respiratory tract. The respiratory bronchioles produce aerosol during breathing, the larynx during speech and the oral cavity also during speech. The model of the resulting droplet size distribution is therefore called the Bronchial Laryngeal Oral (B.L.O.) tri-modal model of expired aerosol.

Infertility in Australia circa 1980 : an historical population perspective on the uptake of fertility treatment by Australian women born in 1946-51

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of lifetime infertility in Australian women born in 1946-51 and examine their uptake of treatment. Methods: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health born in 1946-51 (n=13,715) completed up to four mailed surveys from 1996 to 2004. The odds of infertility were estimated using logistic regression with adjustment for socio-demographic and reproductive factors. Results: Among participants, 92.1% had been pregnant. For women who had been pregnant (n=12738): 56.5% had at least one birth but no pregnancy loss (miscarriage and/or termination); 39.9% experienced both birth and loss; and 3.6% had a loss only. The lifetime prevalence of infertility was 11.0%. Among women who reported infertility (n=1511), 41.7% used treatment. Women had higher odds of infertility when they had reproductive histories of losses only (OR range 9.0-43.5) or had never been pregnant (OR=15.7, 95%CI 11.8-20.8); and higher odds for treatment: losses only (OR range 2.5-9.8); or never pregnant (1.96, 1.28-3.00). Women who delayed their first birth until aged 30+ years had higher odds of treatment (OR range 3.2-4.3). Conclusions: About one in ten women experienced infertility and almost half used some form of treatment, especially those attempting pregnancy after 1980. Older first time mothers had an increased uptake of treatment as assisted reproductive technologies (ART) developed. Implications: This study provided evidence of the early uptake of treatment prior to 1979 when the national register of invasive ART was developed and later uptake prior to 1998 when data on non-invasive ART were first collected.

Spot the differences in traditional and social entrepreneurial intention : highlighting the role of human and social capital

There is general agreement in the scientific community that entrepreneurship plays a central role in the growth and development of an economy in rapidly changing environments (Acs & Virgill 2010). In particular, when business activities are regarded as a vehicle for sustainable growth at large, that goes beyond mere economic returns of singular entities, encompassing also social problems and heavily relying on collaborative actions, then we more precisely fall into the domain of ‘social entrepreneurship’(Robinson et al. 2009). In the entrepreneurship literature, prior studies demonstrated the role of intentionality as the best predictor of planned behavior (Ajzen 1991), and assumed that the intention to start a business derives from the perception of desirability and feasibility and from a propensity to act upon an opportunity (Fishbein & Ajzen 1975). Recognizing that starting a business is an intentional act (Krueger et al. 2000) and entrepreneurship is a planned behaviour (Katz & Gartner 1988), models of entrepreneurial intentions have substantial implications for intentionality research in entrepreneurship. The purpose of this paper is to explore the emerging practice of social entrepreneurship by comparing the determinants of entrepreneurial intention in general versus those leading to startups with a social mission. Social entrepreneurial intentions clearly merit to be investigated given that the opportunity identification process is an intentional process not only typical of for profit start-ups, and yet there is a lack of research examining opportunity recognition in social entrepreneurship (Haugh 2005). The key argument is that intentionality in both traditional and social entrepreneurs during the decision-making process of new venture creation is influenced by an individual's perceptions toward opportunities (Fishbein & Ajzen 1975). Besides opportunity recognition, at least two other aspects can substantially influence intentionality: human and social capital (Davidsson, 2003). This paper is set to establish if and to what extent the social intentions of potential entrepreneurs, at the cognitive level, are influenced by opportunities recognition, human capital, and social capital. By applying established theoretical constructs, the paper draws comparisons between ‘for-profit’ and ‘social’ intentionality using two samples of students enrolled in Economy and Business Administration at the University G. d’Annunzio in Pescara, Italy. A questionnaire was submitted to 310 potential entrepreneurs to test the robustness of the model. The collected data were used to measure the theoretical constructs of the paper. Reliability of the multi-item scale for each dimension was measured using Cronbach alpha, and for all the dimensions measures of reliability are above 0.70. We empirically tested the model using structural equation modeling with AMOS. The results allow us to empirically contribute to the argument regarding the influence of human and social cognitive capital on social and non-social entrepreneurial intentions. Moreover, we highlight the importance for further researchers to look deeper into the determinants of traditional and social entrepreneurial intention so that governments can one day define better polices and regulations that promote sustainable businesses with a social imprint, rather than inhibit their formation and growth.

Performance evaluation of onsite sewage treatment : results of soil investigations

Background The onsite treatment of sewage and effluent disposal is widely prevalent in rural and urban fringe areas due to the general unavailability of reticulated wastewater collection systems. Despite the low technology of the systems, failure is common and in many cases leading to adverse public health and environmental consequences. It is important therefore that careful consideration is given to the design and location of onsite sewage treatment systems. This requires an understanding of the factors that influence treatment performance. The use of subsurface absorption systems is the most common form of effluent disposal for onsite sewage treatment, particularly for septic tanks. Also, in the case of septic tanks, a subsurface disposal system is generally an integral component of the sewage treatment process. Site specific factors play a key role in the onsite treatment of sewage. The project The primary aims of the research project were: • to relate treatment performance of onsite sewage treatment systems to soil conditions at site; • to evaluate current research relating to onsite sewage treatment; and, • to identify key issues where currently there is a lack of relevant research. These tasks were undertaken with the objective of facilitating the development of performance based planning and management strategies for onsite sewage treatment. The primary focus of this research project has been on septic tanks. By implication, the investigation has been confined to subsurface soil absorption systems. The design and treatment processes taking place within the septic tank chamber itself did not form a part of the investigation. Five broad categories of soil types prevalent in the Brisbane region have been considered in this project. The number of systems investigated was based on the proportionate area of urban development within the Brisbane region located on each of the different soil types. In the initial phase of the investigation, the majority of the systems evaluated were septic tanks. However, a small number of aerobic wastewater treatment systems (AWTS) were also included. The primary aim was to compare the effluent quality of systems employing different generic treatment processes. It is important to note that the number of each different type of system investigated was relatively small. Consequently, this does not permit a statistical analysis to be undertaken of the results obtained for comparing different systems. This is an important issue considering the large number of soil physico-chemical parameters and landscape factors that can influence treatment performance and their wide variability. The report This report is the last in a series of three reports focussing on the performance evaluation of onsite treatment of sewage. The research project was initiated at the request of the Brisbane City Council. The project component discussed in the current report outlines the detailed soil investigations undertaken at a selected number of sites. In the initial field sampling, a number of soil chemical properties were assessed as indicators to investigate the extent of effluent flow and to help understand what soil factors renovate the applied effluent. The soil profile attributes, especially texture, structure and moisture regime were examined more in an engineering sense to determine the effect of movement of water into and through the soil. It is important to note that it is not only the physical characteristics, but also the chemical characteristics of the soil as well as landscape factors play a key role in the effluent renovation process. In order to understand the complex processes taking place in a subsurface effluent disposal area, influential parameters were identified using soil chemical concepts. Accordingly, the primary focus of this final phase of the research project was to identify linkages between various soil chemical parameters and landscape patterns and their contribution to the effluent renovation process. The research outcomes will contribute to the development of robust criteria for evaluating the performance of subsurface effluent disposal systems. The outcomes The key findings from the soil investigations undertaken are: • Effluent renovation is primarily undertaken by a combination of various soil physico-chemical parameters and landscape factors, thereby making the effluent renovation processes strongly site dependent. • Decisions regarding site suitability for effluent disposal should not be based purely in terms of the soil type. A number of other factors such as the site location in the catena, the drainage characteristics and other physical and chemical characteristics, also exert a strong influence on site suitability. • Sites, which are difficult to characterise in terms of suitability for effluent disposal, will require a detailed soil physical and chemical analysis to be undertaken to a minimum depth of at least 1.2 m. • The Ca:Mg ratio and Exchangeable Sodium Percentage are important parameters in soil suitability assessment. A Ca:Mg ratio of less than 0.5 would generally indicate a high ESP. This in turn would mean that Na and possibly Mg are the dominant exchangeable cations, leading to probable clay dispersion. • A Ca:Mg ratio greater than 0.5 would generally indicate a low ESP in the profile, which in turn indicates increased soil stability. • In higher clay percentage soils, low ESP can have a significant effect. • The presence of high exchangeable Na can be counteracted by the presence of swelling clays, and an exchange complex co-dominated by exchangeable Ca and exchangeable Mg. This aids absorption of cations at depth, thereby reducing the likelihood of dispersion. • Salt is continually added to the soil by the effluent and problems may arise if the added salts accumulate to a concentration that is harmful to the soil structure. Under such conditions, good drainage is essential in order to allow continuous movement of water and salt through the profile. Therefore, for a site to be sustainable, it would have a maximum application rate of effluent. This would be dependent on subsurface characteristics and the surface area available for effluent disposal. • The dosing regime for effluent disposal can play a significant role in the prevention of salt accumulation in the case of poorly draining sites. Though intermittent dosing was not considered satisfactory for the removal of the clogging mat layer, it has positive attributes in the context of removal of accumulated salts in the soil.