Dynamic modelling of long-term care decisions

This paper describes and analyzes research on the dynamics of long-term care and the policy relevance of identifying the sources of persistence in caregiving arrangements (including the effect of dynamics on parameter estimates, implications for family welfare, parent welfare, child welfare, and cost of government programs). We discuss sources and causes of observed persistence in caregiving arrangements including inertia/state dependence (confounded by unobserved heterogeneity) and costs of changing caregivers. We comment on causes of dynamics including learning/human capital accumulation; burnout; and game-playing. We suggest how to deal with endogenous geography; dynamics in discrete and continuous choices; and equilibrium issues (multiple equilibria, dynamic equilibria). We also present an overview of commonly used longitudinal data sets and evaluate their relative advantages/disadvantages. We also discuss other data issues related to noisy measures of wealth and family structure. Finally, we suggest some methods to handle econometric problems such as endogeneous geography. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Semiparametric estimates of the supply and demand effects of disability on labor force participation

This paper modifies and uses the semiparametric methods of Ichimura and Lee (1991) on standard cross-section data to decompose the effect of disability on labor force participation into a demand and a supply effect. It shows that straightforward use of Ichimura and Lee leads to meaningless results while imposing monotonicity on the unknown function leads to substantial results. The paper finds that supply effects dominate the demand effects of disability.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Assessment of revised recruitment standards for asthma in the Australian Defence Force

Objective To assess the impact of relaxed asthma recruitment standards adopted by the Australian Defence Force (ADF) in 2007. Methods A retrospective audit was conducted on clinical and administrative data for recruits, with and without mild asthma, in their first year of service. Results There was no evidence that mild asthmatics experienced worse outcomes than nonasthmatic recruits. Mild asthmatics had fewer illnesses and restricted duty days and were less costly compared to other recruits. There was no difference in the rate of discharge (attrition) between those with and without mild asthma. Conclusions The revised recruitment standards for asthma in the ADF have not resulted in unanticipated medical or administrative costs to the organisation. Health and administrative outcomes differed little between mild asthmatics and non-asthmatic recruits in their first twelve months of service.

The subset sum problem in Keno modelling

Aspects of Keno modelling throughout the Australian states of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria are discussed: the trivial Heads or Tails and the more interesting Keno Bonus, which leads to consideration of the subset sum problem. The most intricate structure is where Heads or Tails and Keno Bonus are combined, and here, the issue of independence arises. Closed expressions for expected return to player are presented in each case.

An exploration of the extent, use and success in the application of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in the UK construction industry

Building Information Modelling (BIM) has been regarded as a one stop shop capable of addressing the ills of the construction industry. Yet, while some firms have accepted BIM as a new way to work and gone on to record success, others (which have not so done) have raised such questions as: ‘How is BIM defined? Is it a tool or a process? Which kinds and sizes of organisations stand to benefit from BIM?’ These questions form the basis of this research. Hence, having explored the relevant body of literature, this research investigates three organisations within the UK – described as the earliest adopters of BIM – and considers how they have fared in terms of project performance in the years since adopting BIM; focusing on project cost, delivery time and quality achievement. This investigation also probed two of the leading voices in BIM in the UK in search of the much needed answers. The findings of the research show that successful projects executed in the organisations that have used BIM is predicated on its adoption as a process, rather than as a tool of technology; a process that changes the way work in the construction industry is typically done. Moreover, the successes recorded in the firms researched give credence to project success consequent upon adopting BIM. Nevertheless, the findings of this research show that the cornerstone of this success is leadership-driven innovation.

Numerical modelling of an imping jet

Impinging flow occurs when a fluid impacts a comparatively solid boundary upon which divergence occurs. A perfect example of an impinging flow is the impact and divergence of air at ground level during a thunderstorm outflow. The importance of modelling thunderstorm outflows, and in particular the downburst is now well-known to the wind engineering community and research into many of its characteristics is underway throughout the world. The reader is directed to the text by Fujita [I] for an introduction to downburst concepts and theory.

CFD and experimental modelling of an impinging jet for thunderstorm downburst simulation

A thunderstorm downburst in its simplest form can be modelled as a steady flow impinging air jet. Although this simplification neglects some important atmospheric and physical parameters it has proven to be a useful tool for understanding the kinematics of these events. Assuming this simple impinging jet model also allows numerical models to be developed which can be directly compared with experimental results to validate the use of CFD. Confidence gained from these simulations will allow the use of more complex atmospheric impinging jet models that cannot be directly validated. Thunderstorm downbursts are important for wind engineers because in many parts of the world they produce the design wind speeds used in design standards, but are not structurally represented in these documents.

Modelling of arc welding : the importance of including the arc plasma in the computational domain

We present results of computational simulations of tungsten-inert-gas and metal-inert-gas welding. The arc plasma and the electrodes (including the molten weld pool when necessary) are included self-consistently in the computational domain. It is shown, using three examples, that it would be impossible to accurately estimate the boundary conditions on the weld-pool surface without including the arc plasma in the computational domain. First, we show that the shielding gas composition strongly affects the properties of the arc that influence the weld pool: heat flux density, current density, shear stress and arc pressure at the weld-pool surface. Demixing is found to be important in some cases. Second, the vaporization of the weld-pool metal and the diffusion of the metal vapour into the arc plasma are found to decrease the heat flux density and current density to the weld pool. Finally, we show that the shape of the wire electrode in metal-inert-gas welding has a strong influence on flow velocities in the arc and the pressure and shear stress at the weld-pool surface. In each case, we present evidence that the geometry and depth of the weld pool depend strongly on the properties of the arc.

Correlates of foot pain severity in adults with hallux valgus : a cross-sectional study

Background Hallux valgus (HV) is highly prevalent and associated with progressive first metatarsophalangeal joint subluxation and osteoarthritis. The link between structural HV deformity and foot pain is unclear. This study investigated possible explanatory factors surrounding foot pain in HV, including radiographic HV angle and signs of joint degeneration. Methods Participants were 60 adults (53 female) with HV aged 20 to 75 years. Participant demographics and a range of radiographic, clinical and functional measures were considered potential correlates of foot pain. Self-reported foot pain (visual analogue scales and a dichotomous definition) was considered the dependent variable. Multivariate modelling was used to determine which characteristics and measures explained pain, with univariate analyses first used to screen potential variables. Results Approximately 20 to 30% of the variance in foot pain associated with HV could be explained by patient characteristics such as poorer general health status, lower educational attainment and increased occupational physical activity levels, in combination with some dynamic physical characteristics such as hallux plantarflexion weakness and reduced force-time integral under the second metatarsal during gait. Neither increasing lateral deviation of the hallux (HV angle) nor presence of first metatarsophalangeal joint osteoarthritis was associated with foot pain. Conclusions This study shows that passive structural factors, including HV angle, do not appear to be significant correlates of foot pain intensity in HV. Our data demonstrate the importance of considering patient characteristics such as general health and physical activity levels when assessing foot pain associated with HV.

Reactive species in Ar+H2 plasma-aided nanofabrication : two-dimensional discharge modelling

Understanding the generation of reactive species in a plasma is an important step towards creating reliable and robust plasma-aided nanofabrication processes. A two-dimensional fluid simulation of the number densities of surface preparation species in a low-temperature, low-pressure, non-equilibrium Ar+H2 plasma is conducted. The operating pressure and H2 partial pressure have been varied between 70-200 mTorr and 0.1-50%, respectively. An emphasis is placed on the application of these results to nanofabrication. A reasonable balance between operating pressures and H 2 partial pressures that would optimize the number densities of the two working units largely responsible for activation and passivation of surface dangling bonds (Ar+ and H respectively) in order to achieve acceptable rates of surface activation and passivation is obtained. It is found that higher operating pressures (150-200 mTorr) and lower H2 partial pressures (∼5%) are required in order to ensure high number densities of Ar+ and H species. This paper contributes to the improvement of the controllability and predictability of plasma-based nanoassembly processes.

Using mathematical modelling to evaluate drivers and predict trajectories of HIV and STI epidemics in South East Asian and Australian populations

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Numerical modelling and analysis of the blast performance of laminated glass panels and the influence of material parameters

This paper presents a comprehensive numerical procedure to treat the blast response of laminated glass (LG) panels and studies the influence of important material parameters. Post-crack behaviour of the LG panel and the contribution of the interlayer towards blast resistance are treated. Modelling techniques are validated by comparing with existing experimental results. Findings indicate that the tensile strength of glass considerably influences the blast response of LG panels while the interlayer material properties have a major impact on the response under higher blast loads. Initially, glass panes absorb most of the blast energy, but after the glass breaks, interlayer deforms further and absorbs most of the blast energy. LG panels should be designed to fail by tearing of the interlayer rather than failure at the supports to achieve a desired level of protection. From this aspect, material properties of glass, interlayer and sealant joints play important roles, but unfortunately they are not accounted for in the current design standards. The new information generated in this paper will enhance the capabilities of engineers to better design LG panels under blast loads and use better materials to improve the blast response of LG panels.

Modelling electronegative complex plasma systems

The control of the generation and assembly of the electronegative plasma-grown particles is discussed. Due to the large number of elementary processes of particle creation and loss, electronegative complex plasmas should be treated as open systems where the stationary states are sustained by various particle creation and loss processes in the plasma bulk, on the walls, and on the dust grain surfaces. To be physically self-consistent, ionization, diffusion, electron attachment, recombination, dust charge variation, and dissipation due to electron and ion elastic collisions with neutrals and fine particles, as well as charging collisions with the dust, must be accounted for.