Alive SMC^2: Bayesian model selection for low-count time series models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a new method for performing Bayesian parameter inference and model choice for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods. The method involves incorporating an alive particle filter within a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to create a novel pseudo-marginal algorithm, which we refer to as alive SMC^2. The advantages of this approach over competing approaches is that it is naturally adaptive, it does not involve between-model proposals required in reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo and does not rely on potentially rough approximations. The algorithm is demonstrated on Markov process and integer autoregressive moving average models applied to real biological datasets of hospital-acquired pathogen incidence, animal health time series and the cumulative number of poison disease cases in mule deer.

Applying metaethical and normative claims of moral relativism to (shareholder and stakeholder) models of corporate governance

There has, in recent decades, been considerable scholarship regarding the moral aspects of corporate governance,and differences in corporate governance practices around the world have been widely documented and investigated. In such a context, the claims associated with moral relativism are relevant. The purpose of this paper is to provide a detailed consideration of how the metaethical and normative claims of moral relativism in particular can be applied to corporate governance. This objective is achieved, firstly, by reviewing what is meant by metaethical moral relativism and identifying two ways in which the metaethical claim can be assessed. The possibility of a single, morally superior model of corporate governance is subsequently considered through an analysis of prominent works justifying the shareholder and stakeholder approaches, together with a consideration of academic agreement in this area. The paper then draws on the work of Wong (Moral relativity, University of California Press, Berkeley, CA, 1984, A companion to ethics, Blackwell, Malden, 1993, Natural moralities: A defense of pluralistic relativism,Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2006), firstly in providing an argument supporting metaethical moral relativism and secondly regarding values of tolerance and/or accommodation that can contribute to the normative claim. The paper concludes by proposing an argument that it is morally wrong to impose a model of corporate governance where there are differences in moral judgements relevant to corporate governance, or to interfere with a model in similar circumstances, and closes with consideration of the argument’s implications.

Fractional models in space for diffusive processes in heterogeneous media with applications in cell motility and electrical signal propagation

This work addresses fundamental issues in the mathematical modelling of the diffusive motion of particles in biological and physiological settings. New mathematical results are proved and implemented in computer models for the colonisation of the embryonic gut by neural cells and the propagation of electrical waves in the heart, offering new insights into the relationships between structure and function. In particular, the thesis focuses on the use of non-local differential operators of non-integer order to capture the main features of diffusion processes occurring in complex spatial structures characterised by high levels of heterogeneity.

Remaining useful life prediction of rotating equipment using covariate-based hazard models : industry applications

The ability to estimate the expected Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is critical to reduce maintenance costs, operational downtime and safety hazards. In most industries, reliability analysis is based on the Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM) and lifetime distribution models. In these models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure time data; however, statistically sufficient failure time data are often difficult to attain in practice due to the fixed time-based replacement and the small population of identical assets. When condition indicator data are available in addition to failure time data, one of the alternate approaches to the traditional reliability models is the Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM). The covariate-based hazard modelling is one of CBM approaches. There are a number of covariate-based hazard models; however, little study has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these models in asset life prediction using various condition indicators and data availability. This paper reviews two covariate-based hazard models, Proportional Hazard Model (PHM) and Proportional Covariate Model (PCM). To assess these models’ performance, the expected RUL is compared to the actual RUL. Outcomes demonstrate that both models achieve convincingly good results in RUL prediction; however, PCM has smaller absolute prediction error. In addition, PHM shows over-smoothing tendency compared to PCM in sudden changes of condition data. Moreover, the case studies show PCM is not being biased in the case of small sample size.

Importance of animal models in schizophrenia research

Objective This review aims to summarize the importance of animal models for research on psychiatric illnesses, particularly schizophrenia. Method and Results Several aspects of animal models are addressed, including animal experimentation ethics and theoretical considerations of different aspects of validity of animal models. A more specific discussion is included on two of the most widely used behavioural models, psychotropic drug-induced locomotor hyperactivity and prepulse inhibition, followed by comments on the difficulty of modelling negative symptoms of schizophrenia. Furthermore, we emphasize the impact of new developments in molecular biology and the generation of genetically modified mice, which have generated the concept of behavioural phenotyping. Conclusions Complex psychiatric illnesses, such as schizophrenia, cannot be exactly reproduced in species such as rats and mice. Nevertheless, by providing new information on the role of neurotransmitter systems and genes in behavioural function, animal 'models' can be an important tool in unravelling mechanisms involved in the symptoms and development of such illnesses, alongside approaches such as post-mortem studies, cognitive and psychophysiological studies, imaging and epidemiology.

Neurodevelopmental animal models of schizophrenia: Effects on prepulse inhibition

Epidemiological studies have shown increased incidence of schizophrenia in patients subjected to different forms of pre- or perinatal stress. However, as the onset of schizophrenic illness does not usually occur until adolescence or early adulthood, it is not yet fully understood how disruption of early brain development may ultimately lead to malfunction years later. In order to elucidate a possible role for neurodevelopmental factors in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia and to highlight potential new treatments, animal models are needed. Prepulse inhibition (PPI) is a model of sensorimotor gating mechanisms in the brain. It is disrupted in schizophrenia patients and the disruption can be reversed with atypical antipsychotics. It has been widely used in animal studies to explore central mechanisms possibly involved in schizophrenia. There has been a recent surge of behavioural and neurochemical animal studies on neurodevelopmental models, particularly on the effects of postweaning isolation, maternal separation and neonatal lesions of the hippocampus. In these models, long lasting alterations in behaviour and/or molecular changes in specific brain regions are observed, comparable to those seen in schizophrenia. The aim of this article is to critically review the available literature on such neurodevelopmental animal models with special focus on the effects on PPI and brain regions that are putatively involved in regulation of PPI.

The development of virtual leaf surface models for interactive agrichemical spray applications

This project constructed virtual plant leaf surfaces from digitised data sets for use in droplet spray models. Digitisation techniques for obtaining data sets for cotton, chenopodium and wheat leaves are discussed and novel algorithms for the reconstruction of the leaves from these three plant species are developed. The reconstructed leaf surfaces are included into agricultural droplet spray models to investigate the effect of the nozzle and spray formulation combination on the proportion of spray retained by the plant. A numerical study of the post-impaction motion of large droplets that have formed on the leaf surface is also considered.

Scoping study into wound management nurse practitioner models of practice

Objectives The primary objective of this research was to investigate wound management nurse practitioner (WMNP) models of service for the purposes of identifying parameters of practice and how patient outcomes are measured. Methods A scoping study was conducted with all authorised WMNPs in Australia from October to December 2012 using survey methodology. A questionnaire was developed to obtain data on the role and practice parameters of authorised WMNPs in Australia. The tool comprised seven sections and included a total of 59 questions. The questionnaire was distributed to all members of the WMNP Online Peer Review Group, to which it was anticipated the majority of WMNPs belonged. Results Twenty-one WMNPs responded (response rate 87%), with the results based on a subset of respondents who stated that, at the time of the questionnaire, they were employed as a WMNP, therefore yielding a response rate of 71% (n≤15). Most respondents (93%; n≤14) were employed in the public sector, with an average of 64 occasions of service per month. The typical length of a new case consultation was 60min, with 32min for follow ups. The most frequently performed activity was wound photography (83%; n≤12), patient, family or carer education (75%; n≤12), Doppler ankle-brachial pressure index assessment (58%; n≤12), conservative sharp wound debridement (58%; n≤12) and counselling (50%; n≤12). The most routinely prescribed medications were local anaesthetics (25%; n≤12) and oral antibiotics (25%; n≤12). Data were routinely collected by 91% of respondents on service-related and wound-related parameters to monitor patient outcomes, to justify and improve health services provided. Conclusion This study yielded important baseline information on this professional group, including data on patient problems managed, the types of interventions implemented, the resources used to accomplish outcomes and how outcomes are measured.

Effect of constitutive material models on seismic response of two-story reinforced concrete frame

This paper focuses on the finite element (FE) response sensitivity and reliability analyses considering smooth constitutive material models. A reinforced concrete frame is modeled for FE sensitivity analysis followed by direct differentiation method under both static and dynamic load cases. Later, the reliability analysis is performed to predict the seismic behavior of the frame. Displacement sensitivity discontinuities are observed along the pseudo-time axis using non-smooth concrete and reinforcing steel model under quasi-static loading. However, the smooth materials show continuity in response sensitivity at elastic to plastic transition points. The normalized sensitivity results are also used to measure the relative importance of the material parameters on the structural responses. In FE reliability analysis, the influence of smoothness behavior of reinforcing steel is carefully noticed. More efficient and reasonable reliability estimation can be achieved by using smooth material model compare with bilinear material constitutive model.

Murine, but not human, ephrin-B2 can be efficiently cleaved by the serine protease kallikrein-4: Implications for xenograft models of human prostate cancer

Background Ephrin-B2 is the sole physiologically-relevant ligand of the receptor tyrosine kinase EphB4, which is over-expressed in many epithelial cancers, including 66% of prostate cancers, and contributes to cancer cell survival, invasion and migration. Crucially, however, the cancer-promoting EphB4 signalling pathways are independent of interaction with its ligand ephrin-B2, as activation of ligand-dependent signalling causes tumour suppression. Ephrin-B2, however, is often found on the surface of endothelial cells of the tumour vasculature, where it can regulate angiogenesis to support tumour growth. Proteolytic cleavage of endothelial cell ephrin-B2 has previously been suggested as one mechanism whereby the interaction between tumour cell-expressed EphB4 and endothelial cell ephrin-B2 is regulated to support both cancer promotion and angiogenesis. Methods An in silico approach was used to search accessible surfaces of 3D protein models for cleavage sites for the key prostate cancer serine protease, KLK4, and this identified murine ephrin-B2 as a potential KLK4 substrate. Mouse ephrin-B2 was then confirmed as a KLK4 substrate by in vitro incubation of recombinant mouse ephrin-B2 with active recombinant human KLK4. Cleavage products were visualised by SDS-PAGE, silver staining and Western blot and confirmed by N-terminal sequencing. Results At low molar ratios, KLK4 cleaved murine ephrin-B2 but other prostate-specific KLK family members (KLK2 and KLK3/PSA) were less efficient, suggesting cleavage was KLK4-selective. The primary KLK4 cleavage site in murine ephrin-B2 was verified and shown to correspond to one of the in silico predicted sites between extracellular domain residues arginine 178 and asparagine 179. Surprisingly, the highly homologous human ephrin-B2 was poorly cleaved by KLK4 at these low molar ratios, likely due to the 3 amino acid differences at this primary cleavage site. Conclusion These data suggest that in in vivo mouse xenograft models, endogenous mouse ephrin-B2, but not human tumour ephrin-B2, may be a downstream target of cancer cell secreted human KLK4. This is a critical consideration when interpreting data from murine explants of human EphB4+/KLK4+ cancer cells, such as prostate cancer cells, where differential effects may be seen in mouse models as opposed to human clinical situations.

Extending building information models to construction specifications

This project examined the role that written specifications play in the building procurement process and the relationship that specifications should have with respect to the use of BIM within the construction industry. A three-part approach was developed to integrate specifications, product libraries and BIM. Typically handled by different disciplines within project teams, these provide the basis for a holistic approach to the development of building descriptions through the design process and into construction.

Some major problems with existing models and terminology associated with kimberlite pipes from a volcanological perspective, and some suggestions

Five significant problems hinder advances in understanding of the volcanology of kimberlites: (1) kimberlite geology is very model driven; (2) a highly genetic terminology drives deposit or facies interpretation; (3) the effects of alteration on preserved depositional textures have been grossly underestimated; (4) the level of understanding of the physical process significance of preserved textures is limited; and, (5) some inferred processes and deposits are not based on actual, modern volcanological processes. These issues need to be addressed in order to advance understanding of kimberlite volcanological pipe forming processes and deposits. The traditional, steep-sided southern African pipe model (Class I) consists of a steep tapering pipe with a deep root zone, a middle diatreme zone and an upper crater zone (if preserved). Each zone is thought to be dominated by distinctive facies, respectively: hypabyssal kimberlite (HK, descriptively called here massive coherent porphyritic kimberlite), tuffisitic kimberlite breccia (TKB, descriptively here called massive, poorly sorted lapilli tuff) and crater zone facies, which include variably bedded pyroclastic kimberlite and resedimented and reworked volcaniclastic kimberlite (RVK). Porphyritic coherent kimberlite may, however, also be emplaced at different levels in the pipe, as later stage intrusions, as well as dykes in the surrounding country rock. The relationship between HK and TKB is not always clear. Sub-terranean fluidisation as an emplacement process is a largely unsubstantiated hypothesis; modern in-vent volcanological processes should initially be considered to explain observed deposits. Crater zone volcaniclastic deposits can occur within the diatreme zone of some pipes, indicating that the pipe was largely empty at the end of the eruption, and subsequently began to fill-in largely through resedimentation and sourcing of pyroclastic deposits from nearby vents. Classes II and III Canadian kimberlite models have a more factual, descriptive basis, but are still inadequately documented given the recency of their discovery. The diversity amongst kimberlite bodies suggests that a three-model classification is an over-simplification. Every kimberlite is altered to varying degrees, which is an intrinsic consequence of the ultrabasic composition of kimberlite and the in-vent context; few preserve original textures. The effects of syn- to post-emplacement alteration on original textures have not been adequately considered to date, and should be back-stripped to identify original textural elements and configurations. Applying sedimentological textural configurations as a guide to emplacement processes would be useful. The traditional terminology has many connotations about spatial position in pipe and of process. Perhaps the traditional terminology can be retained in the industrial situation as a general lithofacies-mining terminological scheme because it is so entrenched. However, for research purposes a more descriptive lithofacies terminology should be adopted to facilitate detailed understanding of deposit characteristics, important variations in these, and the process origins. For example every deposit of TKB is different in componentry, texture, or depositional structure. However, because so many deposits in many different pipes are called TKB, there is an implication that they are all similar and that similar processes were involved, which is far from clear.

Linking business goals to process models in semantic business process modeling

Broad knowledge is required when a business process is modeled by a business analyst. We argue that existing Business Process Management methodologies do not consider business goals at the appropriate level. In this paper we present an approach to integrate business goals and business process models. We design a Business Goal Ontology for modeling business goals. Furthermore, we devise a modeling pattern for linking the goals to process models and show how the ontology can be used in query answering. In this way, we integrate the intentional perspective into our business process ontology framework, enriching the process description and enabling new types of business process analysis. © 2008 IEEE.

Cross database training of audio-visual hidden Markov models for phone recognition

Speech recognition can be improved by using visual information in the form of lip movements of the speaker in addition to audio information. To date, state-of-the-art techniques for audio-visual speech recognition continue to use audio and visual data of the same database for training their models. In this paper, we present a new approach to make use of one modality of an external dataset in addition to a given audio-visual dataset. By so doing, it is possible to create more powerful models from other extensive audio-only databases and adapt them on our comparatively smaller multi-stream databases. Results show that the presented approach outperforms the widely adopted synchronous hidden Markov models (HMM) trained jointly on audio and visual data of a given audio-visual database for phone recognition by 29% relative. It also outperforms the external audio models trained on extensive external audio datasets and also internal audio models by 5.5% and 46% relative respectively. We also show that the proposed approach is beneficial in noisy environments where the audio source is affected by the environmental noise.

A Web-based system enabling the integration, analysis, and 3D sub-surface visualization of groundwater monitoring data and geological models

The 3D Water Chemistry Atlas is an intuitive, open source, Web-based system that enables the three-dimensional (3D) sub-surface visualization of ground water monitoring data, overlaid on the local geological model (formation and aquifer strata). This paper firstly describes the results of evaluating existing virtual globe technologies, which led to the decision to use the Cesium open source WebGL Virtual Globe and Map Engine as the underlying platform. Next it describes the backend database and search, filtering, browse and analysis tools that were developed to enable users to interactively explore the groundwater monitoring data and interpret it spatially and temporally relative to the local geological formations and aquifers via the Cesium interface. The result is an integrated 3D visualization system that enables environmental managers and regulators to assess groundwater conditions, identify inconsistencies in the data, manage impacts and risks and make more informed decisions about coal seam gas extraction, waste water extraction, and water reuse.